Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction
The Denver Nuggets and host Minnesota Timberwolves will engage in a winner-take-all game tonight on the final day of the regular season. The winner clinches the eighth seed in the Western Conference Playoffs, while the loser will have their playoff dreams dashed. Which team will come out on top tonight?
Game Snapshot & Current Odds
707 Denver Nuggets +3.5 at 708 Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5; 215.5
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Target Center at 8:10PM ET
TV: Altitude (DEN); Fox Sports North Plus (MIN)
NBA Betting Trends
As of Wednesday afternoon, 63 percent of public bets are coming in on the host Timberwolves. Check out our NBA Public Betting Page for all the latest information.
Nuggets must put road struggles behind them
If Denver is going to record the upset on the road tonight, it must get past the fact that the majority of its successes this season have come on its home court. The Nuggets are 31-10 straight up at home this season, but only 15-25 on the road. But if there was ever a game for the Nuggets to play out of their minds away from home, it is this one. There is no tomorrow for the 2017-18 season if they end up losing. Denver performed quite well in the road game at Minnesota back on Dec. 27, falling 128-125 in overtime. The Nuggets won the matchup on their home floor by a count of 100-96 on April 5. If Denver can get the better of the Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns matchup at center, while Gary Harris can give valuable minutes at shooting guard the Nuggets have a good shot at stealing this one.
Timberwolves didn't trade for Butler to miss the playoffs
It's safe to say that if Minnesota shooting guard Jimmy Butler hadn't gotten hurt, it wouldn't be in this position fighting for its playoff lives on the final day of the regular season. But with Butler back in the fold, the T-Wolves are at possibly 100 percent heading into this showdown. Power forward Taj Gibson (neck) is questionable after exiting the last game and his loss would be big as he, like Butler, is a steady hand for this squad. Butler is averaging 22 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists with a PER of 23.58 in 58 games played this season. He has scored 18 and 15 points in 23 minutes each during the first two games since returning in wins over the Lakers and the Grizzlies. His minutes number could push to 30 minutes tonight against a tougher opponent in the biggest game of the season.
NBA Betting Trends
The Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Minnesota. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. The over is 3-0-1 in the last four Denver road games.
The Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on one day of rest. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in the last four T-Wolves games following a straight up win by 10 or more points.
Bet Tonight's NBA Action
Minnesota is 29-11 straight up at home this season, while Denver has had its aforementioned struggles on the road. I say we throw out all the trends on the Nuggets playing well in Minnesota. This game is different and the home-court advantage with what should be a raucous crowds will only help the Timberwolves. Expect a big night out of Butler as he lives for these kind of games, while Towns is a super reliable double-double machine and is fully capable of winning a battle against a top-notch center such as Jokic. I'm going with the home team here. It feels like the safer bet.
NBA DAILY PREDICTION: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES -3.5
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