A's vs. Rockies 9/16 Prediction
The A’s and Rockies will continue their series on Wednesday at 3:10 p.m. ET. With the pitching matchup set for Mike Fiers and German Marquez, coupled with the game being played at Coors, is the over a safe play for bettors this afternoon?
953 Oakland A’s (+105) at 954 Colorado Rockies (-125); o/u 11.5
3:10 p.m. ET, Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Mike Fiers vs. German Marquez
Oakland A’s DFS Spin
Tony Kemp went 1-for-2 with an RBI on Tuesday in the Athletics' loss to the Rockies. Kemp kicked off the scoring with a sacrifice fly in the second inning. He also doubled to lead off the fifth inning. It was a forgettable performance from the Athletics’ offense overall as they managed just one run on six hits in an extremely rare low-scoring affair at Coors Field.
Colorado Rockies DFS Spin
Josh Fuentes went 2-for-2 with an RBI and a run scored on Tuesday to lead the Rockies to a 3-1 victory over the Athletics. Fuentes helped provide all of the offensive firepower the Rockies needed to back starter Antonio Senzatela, who went the distance in this one. The 27-year-old first baseman doubled in the third inning, singled and scored a run in the fifth inning and also delivered an RBI sacrifice fly in the sixth inning. He’s gotten off to a fantastic start at the plate, hitting .340/.353/.511 with one homer and seven RBI across 51 plate appearances. It’s a small sample size, but Fuentes is worthy of a speculative roster spot in NL-only formats.
A's vs. Rockies Betting Prediction
On the surface, this looks like a bad pitching matchup and one that over bettors can exploit. That said, Marquez hasn’t pitched as poorly as his 4.35 ERA would indicate. His Fielding Independent Percentage is 3.54 and his Expected Fielding Independent Percentage is 3.91, which means he’s due some positive regression. He also does a solid job of generating ground balls, which is one of the reasons his teammate Antonio Senzatela fared well against this Oakland lineup last night. The A’s have a ton of power, which is why bettors will be attracted to the over today as Oakland’s hitters will be taking hacks at Coors Field. But the A’s re also an impatient bunch that strikes out a lot and Marquez’s K% is a healthy 21.8%.
On the other side, Fiers owns a 5.06 ERA, 5.24 FIP and 5.71 xFIP, so he’s been bad from both a standard and advanced metric standpoint. However, the Rockies’ wRC+ versus right-handers at home this season is a shockingly-low 71. I don’t trust either team to give us the runs that we need to get over the 11.5 number. I see today’s game playing out similar to last night’s: Low-scoring.
WEDNESDAY MLB BETTING PREDICTION: A’S/ROCKIES UNDER 11.5