Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies and the host Pittsburgh Pirates have split the first two games in their three-games series. Which side will win today's rubber match?
Sunday, July 21, 2019
PNC Park at 1:35PM ET
TV: ATT SportsNet-PIT
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Public Betting Information
According to oddsmakers, the Pirates are a -135 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Phillies are a +125 underdog, while the total is set at 11 runs. As of Sunday morning, 52 percent of public bets are being placed on host Pittsburgh. Check out our MLB Public Betting Page for the latest info.
Phillies held to three hits
Philadelphia lost by a count of 5-1 Saturday at Pittsburgh to drop to 51-48 overall and 21-27 on the road. Jean Segura helped lead the Phillies offensively as he finished 2-for-3. Cesar Hernandez ended the game 1-for-3. Adam Haseley went 0-for-3 with an RBI. Zach Eflin took the loss as he allowed three earned runs on five hits with three strikeouts and no walks over four innings. Drew Smyly gets the start today for Philadelphia as he enters with a 1-5 record, 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP with 52 strikeouts over 51 1/3 innings.
Musgrove guides Pirates to win
Pittsburgh claimed a 5-1 victory Saturday at home over Philadelphia to improve to 46-51 overall and 23-22 at home. Joe Musgrove picked up the win as he allowed one unearned run on two hits over six innings, striking out eight and walking two. Starling Marte helped pace the Pirates offense as he finished 3-for-5 with two doubles, two runs and an RBI. Bryan Reynolds went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI. Corey Dickerson was 2-for-4 with two doubles and a run. Dario Agrazal starts today for Pittsburgh as he comes in with a 2-0 record, 2.45 ERA and seven strikeouts over 22 innings.
MLB Betting Trends
The Phillies are 5-11 in their last 16 game threes of a series. Philadelphia is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
The Pirates are 10-3 in their last 13 home games. Pittsburgh is 2-5 in its last seven home games versus a left-handed starter.
While this will be the first start for Smyly with the Phillies and he's been awful this season, he's probably not nearly as bad as the numbers suggest and it's quite possible he figured something out in the month since his last MLB start. Agrazal has a miniscule strikeout rate and I think Philly will get to him today. I like Philadelphia to bring a solid performance today and leave town with a series win.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +125