Padres vs. Phillies Saturday Prediction

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 7/21/2018 Prediction & Odds

The San Diego Padres were thumped in their first game back after the All-Star Break but do they have any value as a runline play tonight against the host Philadelphia Phillies? Game 2 of this series will be played at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Game Snapshot & Odds

955 San Diego Padres (+157) at 956 Philadelphia Phillies (-180); 8.5 runs

Saturday, July 21, 2018

7:05 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

TV: SD (FSSD); PHI (NBC 10)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Phillies as a -180 favorite. As of this writing, 86% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Padres on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Padres' Perdomo fails to find success vs. Cubs in last start

Luis Perdomo allowed five runs on seven hits over 4 1/3 innings in Saturday's loss to the Cubs. Eric Hosmer was gracious enough to hand Perdomo a 2-0 lead via a first-inning home run off Kyle Hendricks, but the right-hander did not manage to hold onto that edge for long. Ian Happ clubbed a solo home run off him in the second inning and Kyle Schwarber rocked a two-run shot off him in the fourth inning before Javier Baez put an end to his night with a two-run double with one out in the fifth. It was Perdomo's second consecutive stinker-of-a-start, as the Dodgers pounded him for six runs when he last toed the rubber. He'll have a week to breath with the All-Star Game approaching, at least, but the stark reality is that the 25-year-old has pitched to a 7.55 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in seven starts this season.

Phillies' Velasquez tosses six scoreless innings vs. Mets

Vince Velasquez turned in six scoreless innings against the Mets on Wednesday but had to settle for a no-decision in a game his team lost in extra innings. He was locked in an epic pitchers' duel with Mets starter Jacob deGrom in this one. Neither team scored until the 10th inning. Velasquez wasn't dominant -- he notched only three strikeouts -- but the Mets couldn't hit him either. He allowed just two singles and issued one walk in the gem outing. His record holds at 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA in 18 starts. He has been rather unlucky this year, especially considering he pitches for a high-scoring team with a winning record. His 110:35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 94 1/3 innings is really good. His problem throughout his career has been the home run and this year is no exception. He has allowed 13 homers this year and 54 of them in 76 career games (64 starts).

MLB Betting Trends

San Diego

The Padres are 0-5 in Perdomo's last five starts and are 1-4 in his last five road outings.

Philadelphia

The Phillies are 11-5 in their last 16 games overall and 35-17 in their last 52 home games.

Prediction:

Even though they just traded their closer (Brad Hand) to the Indians are were routed on Friday night, I'm rolling the dice on the underdog tonight on the runline. The Phillies are just 2-7 in Velasquez's last nine starts, are 7-16 in his last 23 home outings and have dropped seven of his last 10 starts versus teams from the National League West.

 

The Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5

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