Rays vs. Red Sox Sunday Prediction

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox, 4/28/2019 Predictions & Odds

The Rays used outstanding pitching yesterday to pick up a 2-1 win at Fenway Park. Will they make it two straight against the Red Sox when these AL East rivals meet again at 1:05 p.m. ET on Sunday?

Game Snapshot & Odds

965 Tampa Bay Rays (+130) at 966 Boston Red Sox (-149); 8 runs

Sunday, April 28, 2019

1:05 p.m. ET, Fenway Park, Boston, MA

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Public Betting Trends

According to our MLB Public Betting Chart page, 56% of the betting tickets are on the Rays to beat the Red Sox on the moneyline.

Tampa Bay Rays Fantasy Spin

Yandy Diaz blasted a leadoff homer off of David Price on Saturday, powering the Rays to a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox. He got the Rays started off right, clubbing the second pitch of the game into the seats in center field. Diaz has become an integral part of the Rays' offense this season, and has slid up to the leadoff spot while Austin Meadows is on the injured list. He's off to a tremendous start, slashing .279/.381/.570 with seven long balls and 14 RBI.

Boston Red Sox Fantasy Spin

J.D. Martinez (back) remains questionable for Sunday's game against the Rays. Martinez was a late scratch to the Red Sox lineup on Saturday due to back spasms, and was unavailable off of the bench as well. He received treatment throughout the day on Saturday that the Red Sox are hopeful will alleviate the tightness in his back. Be sure to check the Red Sox lineup on Sunday before deploying him.

MLB Betting Trends

Tampa Bay

The Rays have won six of their last eight games when facing a left-handed starter, which includes a victory yesterday over David Price.

Boston

The Red Sox are 4-1 in Chris Sale’s last five starts versus the Rays.

Prediction:

This is a difficult matchup to break down because there are drawbacks to each team. Let’s start with Boston. One would think Sale will eventually flip the switch and return to his dominant self. But his strikeout rate is down to 22.6% compared to 38.4% from last season and it took him 97 pitches to get through five innings in his last start (vs. Tigers). He’s also allowing 2.35 HR/9.

That said, the problem with the Rays is that their lineup is currently watered-down due to injuries. Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle are both out and they have not been a good offense against left-handers.

So, where is the value? Despite their injuries, I still like the Rays at +130. They’re 4-1 in Tyler Glasnow’s last five starts and given both starters’ current form, he is the better pitcher to back today. Plus, even though Boston has a potent offense, the Red Sox have been highly inconsistent to start the season. I’m going to bank on Sale’s struggles continuing and soak up the plus odds that way.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +130

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