Phillies vs. Marlins Saturday Prediction
The Phillies exploded for nine runs on Friday night to cash the over for bettors but with the Marlins generating only a single run, will the under be the better play tonight? The NL East rivals will meet in Miami again at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Game Snapshot & Odds
905 Philadelphia Phillies (-161) at 906 Miami Marlins (+140); 7.5 runs
Saturday, April 13, 2019
6:10 p.m. ET, Marlins Park, Miami, FL
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Public Betting Trends
According to our MLB Public Betting Chart page, 82% of the betting tickets are on the Phillies to beat the Marlins on the moneyline.
Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Spin
Andrew McCutchen went 3-for-4 with a three-run homer, a walk, and two runs scored in Friday’s victory over the Marlins. McCutchen took Austin Brice deep in the eighth inning to put the game out of reach. The veteran outfielder is off to a strong start as the Phillies’ leadoff man, batting .262/.426/.524 with three homers, eight RBI, and 12 runs scored through 12 games. While we’ve already seen the best of him in fantasy leagues, but could still have a big year in this lineup.
Miami Marlins Fantasy Spin
Jorge Alfaro went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles and a run scored Friday against the Phillies. Alfaro scored the lone run of the game against his former team thanks to a sacrifice fly from Austin Dean. Acquired as part of the J.T. Realmuto deal, the 25-year-old is batting .286/.342/.543 with three homers through 11 games. He’s worthy of attention at the catcher position in mixed fantasy leagues, but his plate discipline remains a red flag.
MLB Betting Trends
The Phillies have won four of Zach Eflin’s last five starts but are just 1-6 in his last seven outings on the road.
The Marlins have won four of Caleb Smith’s last five starts coming off five days of rest.
The Marlins offense has been reliable in the sense that they won’t score a lot of runs. One night after getting shutdown by Jake Arrieta, Miami will face a pitcher in Eflin that has allowed just one run while posting a 14:1 K:BB ratio through 12 innings of work this season. There is always a chance the Phillies bust out like they did last night, but given the fact that the Marlins are a light-hitting club and play in a pitcher’s park, I’ll take my chances with the under again despite being burned last night.
The Pick: Phillies/Marlins UNDER 7.5