Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 7/22/20
By Matt Blunt
Weekly PGA
Picks & Predictions
PGA Tour Betting Resources
2020 3M Open
A Sunday filled with tough weather and tougher pin placements was a solid way to cap off 14 days at Muirfield Village, and the golf world has a new #1 after it as well.
Jon Rahm did the scoring that he had to do during the first three days of the Memorial Tournament to ultimately take down the event, doing what he needed to with his big lead in as he avoided big numbers on Sunday. Rahm's now officially the best player in the world, and it's a week where many of the players around Rahm are joining him in a week off.
The rest of the Tour is off to Minnesota for the second running of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, with Matthew Wolff experiencing life trying to defend a title at this level. Wolff played well over the weekend at Muirfield Village as he tries to peak in Minnesota once again, but at an event where you'd better have a hot putter to come out ahead, Wolff will have plenty of competition for his crown.
Tour: PGA
Date: Thursday, July, 23 2020 to Sunday, July 26, 2020
Venue: TPC Twin Cities
Location: Blaine, Minnesota
Par-Yardage: 71, 7,430 yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS
Vegas Expert Picks
Betting Odds
Longer than Muirfield Village with one fewer Par-5 should tell you that distance is definitely an advantage at the 3M Open. Water is the main defense of this track but it's really nothing but a standard PGA venue where the longer hitters can overpower it if they are on their game.
Green speeds can be kept fast, and fairways can dry out for more roll out to end up in awkward spots, but this is still a bomber's paradise, where the bomb and gauge game definitely plays well. Still easier said than done, but there are multiple Par 4's that are driveable, and guys are going to have to go low regardless. Wolff needed an Eagle on the last to avoid a three-way playoff with Dechambeau and Morikawa at -20.
Keep the golf ball dry and it's just bombs away for guys this week, and let the best man making the most birdie putts win.
3M Open
Betting Odds
Dustin Johnson (+1200) leads the way on the betting board, with Tony Finau (+1400), Brooks Koepka (+1400), Tommy Fleetwood (+1700) and Paul Casey (+1800) the other names under 20-1. Finau started hot last week before being to stagnant with his scoring on Saturday when he needed to go low, and the tag that he's a Top 10 guy and not an outright guy continues to persist.
Dustin Johnson: +1200
Brooks Koepka: +1400
Tony Finau: +1400
Tommy Fleetwood: +1700
Paul Casey: +1800
Matthew Wolff: +2800
Harris English: +3300
Russell Henley: +3300
Bubba Watson: +3500
Lucas Glover: +3500
More Golfers
(Odds Subject to Change)
Fleetwood is returning to competitive action for the first time in months, and Koepka may or may not be hurt. Either way, his game is far from his best and trusting that he's not dinged up a bit at this price is rather tough to do. Dustin Johnson is coming off consecutive rounds of 80 at the Memorial which is never strong recent form, and Casey's only made the cut in one off two starts since the restart as well.
Needless to say that there are at least some questions with everyone at the top this week, and Wolff was in the 125-1 range at this event last year when he won. Could it be another name like that this year, or will this string of events where guys 50-1 or better continue to win?
Golfers to Watch - Minnesota
Top Picks and Predictions
Contender to Back
3M Open
Dustin Johnson +1200
There's not a whole lot that feels right about taking the tournament favorite from a price perspective right after two rounds of 80 on the PGA Tour. There wasn't a whole lot in DJ's game that suggested he had won in his last start on Thursday and Friday at the Memorial, and it does seem a little out there to turn around and essentially lay the chalk with him this week.
But there is plenty that just feels right about DJ getting to a course that really is a bomber's paradise and let out some of that frustration from those consecutive rounds of 80 last week. It's one of the best players in the world, off a highly embarrassing performance, now playing a course that's taylor made for his game (no pun intended). If Matthew Wolff's game is part of the profile of a winning player at TPC Twin Cities, it's not like DJ's game isn't in that same conversation then.
If this were a team sport, the spot on DJ would make plenty of sense – off an embarrassing loss, set up at home against a team they should dominate – and maybe this number even starts to drift higher as the week goes on. What DJ did last week is hard to ignore when he turns around and his the favorite the following week, but numbers aside, the course fit and scenario for DJ this week seems like something we should expect.
Mid-Range Value
3M Open
Sam Burns +5000
Burns is a guy who would always prefer to play the bomb and gouge game, as he sits 10th on Tour this year in driving distance with a 311.1 yard average. His iron play always needs improvement, but he's found something to at least be more consistent of late, putting up three straight Top 30 finishes in his last three starts. Burns has done basically everything a little better than average in his game in those outings, and it might just be a matter of time before all these changes explode into one huge week for the young American.
Burns found success at this event last year as his T7 at the 3M Open was his second best finish of the season. He didn't have his confidence shattered by those dastardly conditions at Muirfield Village in Week 2, and if this run of solid finishes is a byproduct of his irons becoming better, Burns may be yet another young name we see hit the winner's circle rather soon.
Long Shot Pick
3M Open
Sepp Straka +8000
Straka is a guy that had an uncharacteristic rough week with the irons at the Memorial, after finishing 14th at the course in the event the week prior. I'm not going to let tough approach numbers from one week – when conditions were tough – take away from the fact that Straka has been playing some good golf of late and in a birdie fest like this should be, going low for him shouldn't be a problem.
Straka was 14th at the Workday, and 8th at the Rocket Mortgage (a comparable event), prior to last week's stumble over the weekend, and even before the stoppage he was a guy that wasn't shy about knocking on the door of a title when his game was on.
Yes, there were a lot of missed cuts to start the season last fall, but he's cut down on those bad runs dramatically since 2020 started. When his game has been on he's threatened titles with a T4 at the American Express in January, and that T8 in Detroit already discussed. Three straight cuts made and four of the last five suggest that Straka's found something to be much more consistent in his game, and for a guy that generally gains at least a stroke on the field in the tee-to-green game every week, I'll step out and back that he's on this week in Minnesota.
72 Hole Matchup to Take
3M Open
Tony Finau (-137) over Tommy Fleetwood
By no means is Fleetwood in the same realm as Tiger Woods in terms of overall comparison, but it's hard not to come at Fleetwood with anything but a fade approach this week in the same realm backing Tiger to miss the cut in his return was.
Being away from competitive golf for months is going to bring some interesting things into play for Fleetwood this week, especially as he adjusts to a professional event without fans. At least Tiger had that exhibition in that regard before his return.
Far less health questions with Fleetwood relative to Tiger, but this has considered more of a potential PGA tune-up for Fleetwood, even from his own perspective, after such a long layoff. A course where bombing it off the tee brings minimal stress as long as the ball isn't wet is a great venue to shake off any rust with the PGA Championship just a few weeks away.
At the same time, Finau's game fits like a glove for this track as well, and if he plays four rounds like he did the first two last week, another Top 10 finish will likely be in the cards. Finau is plenty capable of going low himself, and when you've got a guy showing fine form recently against a guy returning from multiple months off, I'll lay it nearly every time.
How to Bet on Golf
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
2020 Golf Betting Schedule
Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Understanding Golf Odds and Bets
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.
If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.
By Matt Blunt
After the cut line got nice and stretched out to catch quite a few guys at +3 making the cut, the Memorial ended up turning the week into essentially a break even one. Finau was never in doubt of a Top 40 finish after the way he played to lead the tournament after two rounds, and Cameron Champ's struggles in the approach game continued with another missed cut.
Tiger making it to the weekend and Kevin Kisner not accounted for the losses last week, in a tournament that really should have treated the selections a little better. Tiger was far from the only big name I personally had to miss the cut that ended up on +3 after two rounds, and knowing that was where it would end up at worst early on through Friday's afternoon wave was a tough reality to acknowledge.
3M Open
Betting Resources
Picks and Predictions
Betting Odds
Tour: PGA
Date: Thursday, July 23, 2020 to Sunday, July 26, 2020
Venue: TPC Twin Cities
Location: Blaine, Minnesota
Par-Yardage: 71, 7,430 yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS
Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions
Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
Most of golf's big names are taking this week off as the Tour returns for the 2nd annual 3M Open in Minnesota, and it does make this prop market a little tougher. Less well-known guys means there is going to be some oversaturation somewhere in the market, and fading some of those popular choices is definitely an option of attack. More line moves will come with these props in general because of the lack of depth in this field, so if you are in love with one of the names at the top across the board, getting down soon is hardly the worst option.
I'm sticking with the general strategy of placement and cut line props again this week to see if the results can't be a little better. They were close to being great a week ago, and hopefully that's the final result this week with these selections.
3M Open
Top 30 Finish – Yes
Matthew Wolff -110
Never like to back defending champions outright, but Wolff should be able to find enough consistency with the putter at a place he won at to go low enough to be in the conversation on the weekend. He played really well over the weekend at Memorial when the majority of the field struggled, and it was just at the beginning of this month that he came just short with his 2nd place finish in another bomber's paradise event known as the Rocket Mortgage.
It can be all about timing with Wolff's swing though, and if he's not in sync, things can be a struggle. Those starts are fewer and further between for Wolff as he adjusts to Year 2 on Tour, and young tournaments always love to see defending champions play well in subsequent years because their presence can grow the prestige of the event.
Another strong showing would do wonders for Wolff's own career, and for one of the longest guys in the field at a track where length matters and he's the only past winner of the tournament, -110 is a fair price for that 30-place cushion with Wolff this week.
3M Open
Top 20 Finish – Yes
Luke List +175
List has had trouble putting two strong results together since the restart, but when his game is on, it's only ever really been Top 20 worthy. He did have a win on the Korn Ferry Tour six weeks ago, but if you include that as one of his last six professional starts, List has three missed cuts, a win, a 10th and a 21st. The 10th came last week at Jack's place, so there is some form there, and after missing the cut here last year, I'm not sure this course is capable of getting List again with his bomber-type skills.
Consistency and putting are what it comes down to with List, and if he's got one, you can live without the other and still have a shot at this +175 cashing this week. He's got to have at least one working though, otherwise it may be one of those shorter weeks for List again.
3M Open
To Make Cut – No
Max Homa +125
Speaking of short week candidates in Minnesota, Max Homa's name has to at least come up. Homa's missed the cut in four of five starts since the restart and for the most part as just done a bit of everything just a little bit sub-standard. Putting has never been his strong point but it's been in the negatives in Strokes Gained for each of those five outings, and he was one who couldn't keep up with the low pace needed here last year to play all four days.
It's the recent form that's concerning for an event like this where the cut line could likely sniff a handful under par. The numbers Homa has been putting up since returning suggest the layoff took part of Homa's game with it as well, and while he should be priced where he's at in this type of field, I'm not sure how you could have any faith he's flipped the switch on his game enough to go low enough in the two-day sprint for a pay check. Plus money on a guy that's far from playing well and didn't exactly torch a torch-able course a year ago is a bet I'll have no problem making quite often.