Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 7/16/20

Gjelstad and Norheim

Soccer

Thursday, July 16

Eibar v. Valladolid (12:30 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +210

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Eibar 1, Valladolid 1

Real Sociedad v. Sevilla (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +240

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Real Sociedad 1, Sevilla 1

Valenica v. Espanyol (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Valencia -175

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Valencia1, Espanyol 0

Mallorca v. Granada (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +260

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Mallorca 1, Granada 1

Real Betis v. Alaves (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Real Betis +138

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Real Betis 1, Alaves 0

Celta Vigo v. Levante (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Celta Vigo -167

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Celta Vigo 2, Levante 1

Real Madrid v. Villarreal (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Real Madrid -238

Total goals: Under 3.5

Likely score: Real Madrid 2, Villarreal 1

Barcelona v. Osasuna (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Barcelona -700

Total goals: Under 3.5

Likely score: Barcelona 3, Osasuna 0

Getafe v. Atletico Madrid (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +200

Total goals: Over 1.5

Likely score: Getafe 1, Atletico Madrid 1

Athletic Bilbao v. Leganes (3 p.m. ET)

Money line: Athletic Bilbao -125

Total goals: Under 1.5

Likely score: Athletic Bilbao 1, Leganes 0
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Peter Kahn

Boxing

A 2019 Boxing Writers Association of America Cus D'Amato Manager of the Year nominee, Kahn has his finger on the pulse of what's going on inside and outside the ring. Kahn manages nearly 10 percent of Top Rank's fighters, and he can be seen and heard weekly as co-host of "The Fight Guys" show on FITE TV.

Not surprisingly, Kahn is uncanny when it comes to picking fights. He is a perfect 12-0 on SportsLine boxing picks since the hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic, including a 5-0 sweep this month that extended his highly profitable run.

Last year in the heavyweight division, Kahn called Deontay Wilder knocking out Dominic Breazeale in the first round, a massive 22-1 long shot bet. "Based on everything Wilder has expressed leading up to the fight and his true dislike and beef with Breazeale, expect Wilder to come out and try to get rid of him early to make a statement," Kahn told readers. The result: Wilder ended it at the 2:17 mark with a violent one-punch knockout.

Miguel Marriaga vs. Mark John Yap, 10 rounds, featherweights

This fight is as much as a mismatch as you can get. Marriaga (29-3, 25 KOs) is a three-time world title challenger, having lost to Vasiliy Lomachenko, Oscar Valdez and Nicholas Walters. all world-class talents.

Marriaga has the experience, has fought better opposition and is taller and has more power. There's a reason Marriaga is a massive favorite. Not even a question here. Marriaga will outbox and outpower the overmatched Yap. There's no line value, but if you have the money to lay the favorite then go for it. It's easy money.

Felix Verdejo vs. Will Madera, 10 rounds, lightweights

Verdejo (26-1, 16 KOs) stumbled against Antonio Lozada, suffering a TKO loss in 2018, but has successfully rebounded with three wins since then. The 29-year-old underdog Madera is undefeated (15-0-3, 8 KOs) against mostly middle-of-the-road opposition.

This bout is a tune-up for Verdejo against an undefeated and durable, however limited, fighter with a good record for TV in order for Verdejo's promoter, Top Rank, to move him up in the world ratings. Expect Verdejo to use his boxing skillset to win the fight against a game but overmatched Madera. I like Verdejo to get the win using footwork, hand speed, and boxing IQ to outpoint Madera over 10 rounds.
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Hank Goldberg

Horse Racing

In the San Felipe Stakes in March, Hammer gave out a $20 exacta that paid $180. Last month in the Belmont Stakes, Goldberg was all over Tiz the Law, who scored a convincing victory in the year's first Triple Crown race. And in Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes, Hammer nailed the Art Collector-Swiss Skydiver exacta for $169.40.

Saratoga Race Course

2020 Peter Pan Stakes

Here are Goldberg's top three horses in order of preference:

6 Mystic Guide (5-2)
This lightly raced 3-year-old is improving quickly for trainer Michael Stidham. Mystic Guide faced winners for the first time in his last start and finished a good second behind the talented Tap It to Win. After that race, he galloped out really well, suggesting the extra half furlong of Thursday's race shouldn't be a problem. Jockey Jose Ortiz hops aboard, which is another plus. I have a feeling Bill Mott's horse will take the most money, resulting in a better price on Mystic Guide.

3 Modernist (7-2)
Modernist simply was terrible in the Belmont Stakes. But that was his first race in three months, and he didn't have the greatest of trips. His two races in Louisiana were good enough to be competitive, and I expect him to run more like that on Thursday. I like that Mott is wheeling Modernist back after just 26 days. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the favorite.

5 Candy Tycoon (5-1)
You can toss his effort in the Florida Derby (sixth, almost 22 lengths behind the winner). He was bumped early and ran wide in that race. Otherwise this Todd Pletcher trainee has been very good. He earned a career-best 87 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start and has trained consistently for his return to the track, even earning a bullet for his July 1 workout.

Wagers
$5 exacta box 3-5-6 ($30)
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 Jerome Avenue Stalker will make his first dirt start for Atras, so there's reason to think he's going to improve in a big way off his main track form for Bruce Brown, and that form wasn't bad at all, not to mention there's plenty of speed here to aid his run; look out.
#4 Sargeant Drive Stretch runner goes back to Rice, who has had a rough year (for her standards), but this one is another who will like the prospective race flow, and the price should be a fair one too, even with Jose Ortiz jumping aboard; definite exotics contender.
#6 Guy Caballero ML favorite is a versatile sort, as he was on the lead last time but stalked plenty of times in the past, so if he settles a bit he'll be in the mix, but even so, he could still get caught up in the early proceedings, at false odds too; making him prove it on top.
Race Summary We kick off the meet with a race that, on paper, seemingly has plenty of speed, and that should aid the chances of the 7, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by keying him to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since he looks like he's getting all the best of it here, and he was arguably the best horse to begin with.

Saratoga - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 Big Engine Price player just lost to the ML chalk by 2 last time but was up against it while tracking a slow pace, which is nothing like what he'll get here, as things look supersonic early, which means he can take advantage late; upset special.
#8 The Caretaker In form runner just won at the level last time while beating a few here and showing a bit more early speed, but like the pick, he too can settle and pounce, and regardless, he'll be getting first run on 'Engine; looms the one to beat.
#5 Dark Money Expected favorite beat the pick handily by pressing a pedestrian pace and kicking clear late, and while he'll likely employ the same tactics here, there's a chance they 5-7 lengths quicker early here, which won't help late; tread lightly.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and this one is loaded, and that will really help the chances of the 4 and 8, while hurting those of the 5, so play the former in all the slots, in the EX with the 8, and use them both to end the early Pk5/Pk4, though it's the pick that is the price of the two, and who looks primed for another big run, that might get there this time.

Saratoga - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Mystic Guide Godolphin blueblood has no chance on a speed track when 2nd to Tapit to Win last time, but he still ran credibly, while not asked for his best late, now gets to turns, should be stalking what looks like an honest pace, and has been working like he's going to deliver on all the promise; thinking he'll have his sights set a lot higher after this one.
#5 Candy Tycoon Stalker has been facing some good ones this year and holding his own, as that 2nd to Rushie last time at OP was solid, and if you toss the GI Florida Derby to Belmont hero Tiz the Law he looks that much better, especially since stretching out to two turns, and the price here figures to be honest enough to come along if you're a fan; second-best.
#7 Caracaro The wildcard hasn't been seen since January and sure picks an aggressive spot not only to make his graded stakes debut, but it's also his two-turn debut, and first try against winners too, so there sure are some hurdles, but the MSW GP win was a beauty, and fast too, those works are sharp, and he could clear and get brave; remember the name.
Race Summary You might look back after this in a few months and wonder how you got $7.80 on the 6 in a little GIII stakes with no one special in it, as he's that type of talent, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some built-in value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4, as he has hinted at some bigtime ability in his three starts, and looks poised to finally break through in a race begging for someone to do so.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Desert Poem Likely second choice should get a good trip spying what figure to be modest splits, and she owns some races from last year that would be good enough to handle the chalk.
#1 Alkeline Top-heavy race with these two, and this one figures to go favored for a sharp McKnight barn. She can sit a similar trip to the top choice.
#4 Soexotic Forward player might find herself on the engine here? She was close to the front in that sprint romp last time out, and she may be able to hang around for an underneath slice on the hike.
Race Summary Desert Poem and Alkeline can both be tough here, but the former might offer a slightly better price on the board off the layoff.

Woodbine - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Cicibonne Chased and faded in the debut with slightly better, and she has some room to improve in this spot at a price with another forward trip looming.
#5 Don't Smile Lilah Most likely winner found the right level, but it's worth noting that she only faced four runners at this level last out and still couldn't seal the deal. Standing against.
#6 Shishka Her best stuff would do the trick, but something like the 5/2 ML offering feels pretty unappealing on this filly as she makes her 18th lifetime start.
Race Summary Cicicbonne isn't as exposed as the rest of these with just one run under her belt, and she can flash a little bit of speed against a couple of players who are likely to get bet but have serious questions to answer.

Woodbine - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Reconfigure Wanted to go against this one, but he's probably just too good for these. He was Grade II placed locally last year on the turf and wasn't embarrassed by better in that runner-up effort last out.
#3 Alicia's Kid Thought a long time about giving this longshot the call here, but the top choice should probably be too tough. That said, this guy might be the way to make this race pay with a short price on top, as he can get a great spying trip with blinkers off. His best keeps him in the mix.
#! Kitchen Fire Has pace from the fence and might appreciate getting back to the turf where he rolled a decent bunch at Tampa at this trip two starts back.
Race Summary Reconfigure is the clear one to beat and most likely winner here, but Alicia's Kid and Kitchen Fire look like the pair to try to get in the mix with him.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2
Picks Notes
#4 SKYWAY COBRA Exits fast heat, rallies into contention in second start back.
#1 WINNING AMERICAN Rounding to another good try from the rail, switches pilots again.
#2 WHIMZICAL CHAPTER First or second in 15 of last 25 starts, mostly in Delaware.
Race Summary Skyway Cobra, no threat from post 8 in a fast comeback race, gets class relief and fits well on his best effort. He’s a good value play and a key in 4-1 and 4-2 exactas.

Running Aces - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 FLASH ME BABY Could hold tactical edge in second start back, lures Roland.
#1 CAPITOL HILL Steady check-getter benefits from rail starting spot.
#7 LA DIVA DE ROSA Sustained first-over rally to upset at this level two starts ago.
Race Summary Flash Me Baby could be closer to the pace in her second start off the layoff and get the jump on her main rivals. She picks up the top driver and gets the nod. Play 3-1 and 3-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 FIELD GUNNER Right set-up, right price in bounce back spot.
#9 RIPPED AND READY Carried speed to two wins and a near miss recently, moves inside out.
#8 NO TIME TO PLAY Seized the moment after three rivals went off stride.
Race Summary Field Gunner broke stride before the start as the odds-on favorite at Grand River, but if he stays flat, he should sit a perfect stalking trip and could return his loyal followers at an inflated price. Play 5-8 and 5-9 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Naughty Allred Woke up out of bad form with an impressive win in his 1st local start and can handle the step up in class.
#3 Aggressivity Closed well and was a solid runner-up at Mountaineer; won a couple of races at Oaklawn this year.
#5 Palvera Won three of his last five and held on strongly at Lone Star in his latest; has been with good runners and is squarely in the hunt in this one.
Race Summary Naughty Allred was taking on some decent horses earlier in the year and was very sharp in his first try at Indiana Grand.

Indiana Grand - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Pass the Biscuits Held on for 2nd in his 1st since November and has been in the mix in most of his local races; does well on the front end.
#1 Big Fudge Set the pace for a half-mile and couldn't answer the bid of the winner but held 2nd last out; runs well vs. state-breds.
#2 Maters N Taters Held on for 3rd in a stakes race last out; troublesome on the front end.
Race Summary Pass the Biscuits has the speed to get the lead and has run some fast races over the strip; should be tough in his 2nd of the year.

Indiana Grand - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Markitoff Prompted the pace in his last two at Churchill and likely will enjoy the chance in venue; lost a photo in the G2 Muniz at Fair Grounds last year and even appeared the G1 Canadian International two years back.
#4 Power Player Won two of four races in New York last year and goes from Jason Servis to D'Amato for his 1st of this year; has trained well and make a run here.
#6 Eskenforit Moves over to the turf after taking some tough company at Churchill and Oaklawn; had a good 2019 and is set to move up in his 3rd start of year.
Race Summary Markitoff has the speed to battle for the lead and has the back class that will help him dig in when challenge; long overdue to get back to the winner's circle.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 CASTLE CASANOVA 7/2

# 7 JEROME AVENUE 5/2

# 2 GRIT AND GLORY 6/1

CASTLE CASANOVA has a solid shot to take this race. Posted a respectable speed figure last time out. JEROME AVENUE - With a quite good 89 Equibase speed fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. Has solid Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. GRIT AND GLORY - Should come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Rice have shown very solid results lately.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 56

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 BAYOU KUE 20/1

# 2 HEREZ THE BAR 6/1

# 8 A REAL WORLD 20/1

BAYOU KUE is the strongest wager in this race especially at such a decent 20/1. The offspring of this sire have historically shown very good dividends. His trainer has done soundly with entries going to the post for the first time. Tristan has shown excellent profits (+75 ROI ) at this distance/surface. HEREZ THE BAR - The progeny of Five Bar Cartel have the best profits in this group of horses in this race for first time starters. Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved rapidly to the lead recently. Very strong jock with handler numbers make this horse a solid pick. A REAL WORLD - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Watson ought to have this gelding in excellent position to win the race.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - Post: 8:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 61

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 GET DIRECTIONS (ML=5/1)
#1 LADY CARLOS (ML=2/1)

GET DIRECTIONS - After the event aboard this horse on June 11th, the jock is going to know the filly much better. Trying to break maiden moving from a turf race to the main track. I think Arndt will have her conditioned well for today's race. LADY CARLOS - This filly is in first-rate physical condition right now. Ended up second last time around the track and comes back rapidly. Jock jumped on this filly's back for the 1st attempt on Jun 19th. Should be in tune with the horse even better in today's contest. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a most important factor. This animal is ranked number one in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SUPER LEGS (ML=4/1), #2 MAW MAW'S SOPHIA (ML=5/1), #5 KORAT QUEEN (ML=6/1),

SUPER LEGS - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of races. 4/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race of late. MAW MAW'S SOPHIA - Not probable that the speed figure she earned on June 19th will hold up in this race. KORAT QUEEN - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been sharp in sprint races lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 GET DIRECTIONS is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 4:58pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ECHO LOCATION (ML=6/1)

ECHO LOCATION - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jockey/trainer combination. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SHOWBIZ LADY (ML=2/1), #1 PIERIAN (ML=3/1), #4 WUK UP QUEEN (ML=4/1),

SHOWBIZ LADY - I usually try to beat these types of favorites off the extended vacation. This filly finished out of the money on June 28th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either. PIERIAN - Substandard speed rating last time around the track at Woodbine at 5 furlongs. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. WUK UP QUEEN - Tough to like the downward moving flow (79/62/39) of speed figures. The seventh place finish last time out coming after the very long layoff is surely not a positive indication.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ECHO LOCATION - Buntain has found an easier group for this filly today. Last event was nowhere near as tough as this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #5 ECHO LOCATION on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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