Gold Cup soccer: Sunday's quarterfinal analysis and predictions
By Shawn Young
The quarterfinals wrap up Sunday at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. This will be the first ever sporting event at Jerry Jones’ new shrine to the Dallas Cowboys. Guadeloupe plays Costa Rica, the Mexico squares off against Haiti. The two winners meet in a Thursday semifinal in Chicago.
COSTA RICA (-0.5, -120) vs. GUADELOUPE
We have been all over Guadeloupe in every match they’ve played. Guadeloupe was thoroughly outclassed by Mexico in the wrap-up game in Group C and reduced to nine men before the end. It was painful to watch. Mastermind or Masochist, I call on you to keep the faith and bet Guadeloupe again here.
The market moved about 25 cents toward Costa Rica, but stabilized by Friday morning. This looks like an over-reaction to Guadeloupe’s poor performance. Had Guadeloupe played Mexico tougher, this quarterfinal would be rightly set as a pick’em. Costa Rica squeezed past Jamaica, but couldn’t beat Canada and actually lost to El Salvador. Costa Rica are very likely bound for next year’s World Cup, but have shown very little quality in the last couple of weeks.
Vertot (starting centre back) and Gotin (substitute attacker) are suspended for Guadeloupe. The defense will need to be firm, but it’s a job they can do.
Prediction: Costa Rica 1, Guadeloupe 1.
MEXICO (-1.5, +105) vs. HAITI
This line is also likely in the wrong place, probably for the same reason as the early game - an overreaction to last weekend. This time, though, the dog is being given too much respect based on the most recent game.
Haiti came out flying at the start of the second half against the USA last Saturday and caught the Americans sound asleep. That five minute spell saved the Haitians’ tournament. That doesn’t mean Haiti is actually any good. The USA still outshot them 13-7 and Haiti only had three real chances in the 2-2 draw.
Mexico finally put a convincing effort forward against Guadeloupe. They match up very well against Haiti and should be able to keep things rolling in front of what rates to be a very partisan crowd. We’re not sure why the Mexicans aren’t -1.5, minus big money in this spot. Mexico -1, -150 is exceptionally attractive if you can still get it.
Prediction: Mexico 3, Haiti 0.