EPL Best Bets - Week 19
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
After this round of matches everyone will have played everyone once in the Premier League this season. The Boxing Day fixtures went pretty much as expected. Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Southampton all won, and the only slightly unexpected result was Stoke’s win at a hugely underpeforming Everton.
Despite Manchester United’s excellent win against Newcastle - probably their best performance of the season, it still looks likely that only Chelsea and Man City will last the course until the end of the season. Arsenal will still be confident of a top four finish, but Southampton’s recent revival (two consecutive 3-0 wins) and West Ham’s form mean they are not without challengers.
Let's handicap Week 19 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Manchester City to beat Burnley to nil at 4/6
Despite the feeling that Man City’s defence is not quite as good as Chelsea’s against the very best, they still give don’t give the smaller sides many sniffs of goal, particularly at home. This should be the case as Burnley - in terms of natural ability the weakest team in the Premier League - travel the short distance to the Etihad Stadium. With such a packed Christmas period, Burnley have games more worth concentrating on than this. They spend long periods without the ball in most games which is very tiring, and it is hard to see them providing too much resistance.
It is hard to see City humiliating the Clarets, who are a respectable defensive unit. Once the game is won there will be no need for City to pile on the misery. Just as they did at West Brom, they will look to get it won early and then coast. A 2-0 win looks likely.
The Solid Bet: Leicester City to win at Hull City at 21/10
This is both teams’ biggest match of the season. Leicester have only managed ten points so far, but their performances have been better than that meagre tally would suggest. Hull are down in seventeenth but stole a 2-1 win at Sunderland on Boxing Day despite being outplayed for most of the match. Most worrying for the Tigers has been their home form. They have only taken maximum points once at home this year and Leicester must see this as an opportunity to gain a huge three points. If they go much longer without a win, they will start to be cut even more adrift than they are now.
Nigel Pearson’s side played well in their 2-1 loss against Spurs on Friday, and also gave Manchester City a decent game in another narrow defeat. Leicester can still save themselves if they turn good performances into points, and this fixture at a vulnerable Hull looks a good opportunity to do that.
The Outsider: West Ham United to beat Arsenal at 13/5
Many will see West Ham’s tough Christmas run as a repeat of Southampton’s failings in a group of matches against the top teams, but Arsenal can be very beatable at home, and at 13/5 West Ham just have to be value having won six of their nine games at Upton Park. They were outclassed at Chelsea on Boxing Day - but then again who isn’t? And they have had an extra five hours rest, which is significant with two games in three days. Added to that, Arsenal had to work for the full 90 minutes as they squeezed past QPR in Friday’s late kick-off.
A win would be a huge result for Arsenal in their quest to make the top four, particularly as a title tilt is now impossible. However with three wins, three draws and three losses on the road it is hard to make a case for them at a shade of odds-against.
The First Goalscorer: Charlie Austin to score first for QPR against Crystal Palace at 7/2
Charlie Austin is almost single-handedly keeping QPR’s heads above water at the moment, and 7/2 represents value on him opening the scoring in part because there aren’t many other alternatives. QPR’s midfield is made up either of functional tacklers or wingers to supply Austin. Crystal Palace, now without Neil Warnock who was sacked on Sunday after a 3-0 defeat to Southampton, don’t have an end product. They have already made it clear they are after a striker in January, and their current options don’t look great.