EPL Best Bets - Week 18
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The traditional Boxing Day fixtures are the start of a hectic run of fixtures for English teams. Premier League sides will play on the 26th, the 28th, January 1st as well as having FA Cup ties on the weekend starting January 3rd. Boxing Day is one of only two days in the calendar where all twenty Premier League sides play - the other being the final game of the season.
Chelsea go into Christmas top of the league after a hard-fought 2-0 win at Stoke City thanks to goals from John Terry and Cesc Fabregas. Three points behind them are Manchester City, with Manchester United in third. Only two teams in Premier League history have ever stayed up after being bottom on Christmas Day, and it is Leicester City who occupy that position now. Burnley and Hull City are the other sides occupying the bottom three places.
Let's handicap Week 18 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Chelsea to be winning at half-time and full-time against West Ham at 20/23
West Ham are 9/1 to cause a Boxing Day shock at London rivals Chelsea, and they look good to give the league leaders a test. The Irons have scored in every league away game so far this season and may outperform their odds, although defeat is still very likely with Chelsea 1/3. Jose Mourinho’s side have scored eight times in the first 15 minutes of matches this season, most recently getting off and running just two minutes in against Stoke. This leads me to the Chelsea/Chelsea double result bet, which is available at 20/23.
Along with this, both teams to score looks a fair shout at even money. With Andy Carroll now hitting some form West Ham have a real threat going forward - what a contrast to last year. However, Chelsea are near on invincible at home, and should come through this one in the end.
The Solid Bet: Manchester United -1.5 vs Newcastle United at 51/50
Manchester United dispatched Newcastle 4-0 in this fixture last year, and they come into this match in much better spirits than their opponents. While flaws are still hugely evident and performances still sometimes unconvincing, the fact remains that United have won six out of their last seven matches. Newcastle’s progress may well take a big hit after their defeat to big local rivals Sunderland on Sunday. A last minute Adam Johnson goal saw Newcastle lose their fourth Tyne-Wear derby in a row, and Man United will be looking to prey on some mental weakness following that loss.
It does not take a rocket scientist to work out where United’s problems are: they are great going forward and pretty awful in defence. Thirteen out of their last 16 games at Old Trafford have had over 2.5 goals, and this is accordingly short at 3/5.
The Outsider: Stoke City to win at Everton at 4/1
Everton have arguably been the big disappointment of the Premier League season so far, though their struggles have gone under the radar compared with Liverpool and Spurs. They have not been able to string together a consistent run of results all season, and the last two games have been good examples of that. They swept aside QPR 3-1 at home before turning in an awful display at Southampton to lose 3-0. Almost halfway through the season, Everton sit eleventh with Champions League qualification via the league almost out of the question.
They have struggled to turn over inferior teams at home. Stoke can look to draws with Hull and Swansea and a defeat to Crystal Palace as encouragement for their trip to Goodison Park. The Potters have already won at Spurs and Manchester City this year, and are the kind of team whom it suits to be underdogs.
The First Goalscorer: Graziano Pellè for Southampton at Crystal Palace at 4/1
After a lean spell Graziano Pelle is back in the goals after he scored in Southampton’s defeat of Everton last Saturday. His side travel to Crystal Palace, who are on a dreadful run of form, particularly at home. In contrast to last year, where Palace could be relied upon to give teams a tough time at Selhurst Park, Palace have now lost at home to West Ham, Sunderland and Villa this term. Southampton will be looking to add to that. Pelle has scored eight goals already this season and he can find holes in a slow Palace defence.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle Betting Lines and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
Manchester United's six-match winning run was halted last weekend when they were held to a disappointing draw against 10-man Aston Villa. Louis van Gaal's side will seek an immediate return to winning ways when they take on Newcastle United at Old Trafford on Friday (10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Network).
Van Gaal's side have recorded seven victories in their last eight matches at Old Trafford, and the hosts are heavy favorites at -280 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to claim all three points against Alan Pardew's side on Friday.
Newcastle come into this clash on the back of three successive defeats -- including a painful 1-0 home reverse against bitter rivals Sunderland at St James' Park on Sunday.
Pardew's side will be eager to bounce back when they visit Old Trafford, and the visitors are chalked up at +775 odds at the Westgate to claim a morale-boosting win, while the same book offer +400 odds that the match ends in stalemate.
The goal spread at the Westgate has Man United laying 1.5 goals (+105), with bettors required to lay -125 on Newcastle +1.5 goals. The total is set at 3 goals (OVER -105, UNDER -115).
Manchester United recorded a resounding 3-0 win over Liverpool in their last home match, and they will be confident of getting amongst the goals again when they line up against a Newcastle side that has leaked nine goals in their last three outings.
Radamel Falcao marked his return from injury with the equalizing goal in the draw against Villa on Saturday, and the Colombian striker is chalked up at 4-to-1 odds offshore to score the first goal of the game on Friday.
England captain Wayne Rooney opened the scoring in that victory against Liverpool earlier this month, and the 28-year-old striker can be backed at +333 odds to repeat that feat against Alan Pardew's men.
Newcastle have managed just four goals in their last six games and, with Alan Pardew's side looking toothless against the Black Cats at the weekend, the +120 odds for Manchester United to win in a shutout appeals here, while there is also a generous offer of +200 on Van Gaal's men winning both halves.
Given Newcastle's defensive frailty in recent weeks, the +105 odds for Manchester United -1.5 goals carries some appeal here, but bettors are instead advised to back van Gaal's men to shrug off the disappointing draw with Villa by winning both halves at +200 against Alan Pardew's lackluster side on Friday afternoon.
Goal.com best bet: Manchester United to win both halves at +200