Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 1/11/20
Tennessee at Baltimore
Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Titans Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Ravens Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card Results
Tennessee: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Baltimore: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Opening Odds
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Baltimore as a 10-point favorite while the total was sent out at 49. The number on the Ravens has dropped to -9 ½ and the ‘over/under’ has dropped to 48 at the Westgate while a couple other sportsbooks have gone down to 47 ½.
2019 Off the Bye
Baltimore has been one of the best teams when playing with rest under head coach John Harbaugh. Since he started in 2018, the Ravens have gone 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. This season, they blasted the Patriots 37-20 in Week 8 after their bye week. During Harbaugh’s tenure, Baltimore has only earned a playoff bye once when it was the No. 2 seed during the 2011 campaign. The Ravens defeated the Texans 20-13 but failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites. Following that win, Baltimore would end up losing 23-20 at New England in the AFC Championship.
Head-to-Head
Prior to 2019, these teams met in each of the previous regular seasons with Tennessee capturing a 23-20 win at home in 2017 before Baltimore avenged that loss with a 21-0 victory at Nashville in 2018. The Ravens had Joe Flacco at quarterback in that road win while the Titans has Marcus Mariota under center.
Baltimore has won four straight (2-2 ATS) games against AFC South foes, which includes a 41-7 rout of Houston in Week 11 of this year’s season. Tennessee blasted Cleveland 43-13 in Week 1 as a 5 ½-point road underdog and that helped the team improve to 5-2 over their last seven encounters against teams from the AFC North.
Playoff Notes
Baltimore has gone 10-6 SU and 11-5 all-time in the playoffs under Harbaugh but only three of those games took place at home where the team went 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. This is the largest point-spread that Baltimore has been favored by in the playoffs under Harbaugh. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has only played in one playoff game and he’s 0-1 after the Ravens dropped a 23-17 decision to the Chargers as three-point home favorites in the Wild Card round.
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won his first career playoff game last Saturday as the Titans defeated the Patriots 20-13 as five-point road underdogs. Tennessee went 1-1 in the 2017 postseason, both games played on the road. The win over New England was also the first for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill.
Total Notes
Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ go 10-7, which included a 5-4 mark away from home. Since Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game. Baltimore averaged 33.2 points per game on offense, which was ranked first in the league but the attack was more explosive (36.5 PPG) on the road than at home (29.9 PPG). The ‘over/under’ produced 4-4 results at M&T Bank Stadium and that was helped with strong defensive scoring averages (18.6 PPG).
Dating back to 2000, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points. Including last Saturday’s result at Foxboro, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven playoff games.
Going back to 2014, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2-1 against AFC South opponents and that includes a 4-0-1 mark at home. The defense only allowed 14.6 PPG. Meanwhile, the Titans have watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 versus AFC North teams during the same span.
Minnesota at San Francisco
Saturday, Jan. 11 (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)
Vikings Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
49ers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U
Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card Results
Minnesota: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-2-1 O/U
Opening Odds
After the Vikings defeated the Saints 26-20 in their Wild Card matchup, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out San Francisco as a seven-point home favorite with a total of 45 ½. Early money came in on the Vikings and the currently line is 49ers -6 ½ while the ‘over/under’ has held in check.
2019 Off the Bye
San Francisco defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ‘bye’ week and that snapped an eight-game winless streak (0-7-1) for the 49ers when playing with rest. It was also the first win for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan when playing with rest since he took over the team in 2017 after starting 0-2.
Head-to-Head
These teams met in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and Minnesota stopped San Francisco 24-16 as a six-point home favorite. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tossed a career-high three interceptions in that loss while his counterpart Kirk Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win for the Vikings.
Minnesota dropped a 37-30 loss to Seattle in Week 13 on Monday Night Football. Including that loss, the Vikings have lost three of their last four encounters against NFC West foes and they haven’t captured a road win against this division since 2004.
San Francisco blitzed Green Bay 37-8 as a three-point home favorite in Week 11. Prior to that win, the 49ers went 1-3 in the 2018 regular season when matched up against the NFC North but Garropolo missed two of those games due to injury.
Playoff Notes
Minnesota’s win over New Orleans on Sunday was the first road playoff victory for the club since 2005. The win pushed head coach Mike Zimmer’s record to 2-2 overall in the postseason. The last appearance for the Vikings in the Divisional Playoff round came in 2017 and it snuck past the Saints 29-24 with a late touchdown reception. Cousins owns a 1-1 career playoff record as a starter.
San Francisco hasn’t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season. The club won its first two games on the road but came up short to Seattle (17-23) in the NFC Championship game. This will be the first career playoff start for Garropolo.
This will be the first playoff game for Shanahan but he does have experience in the postseason as a coordinator, most recently with Atlanta in 2016. The Falcons averaged 36 PPG during that playoff run, but the offense took the blame in their Super Bowl LI loss (28-34) to the Patriots when they were held to just seven points in the second-half.
Total Notes
Prior to Sunday’s ‘under’ result versus New Orleans, Minnesota was on a 5-0 ‘over’ run in its last five away games. Since being held to 16 and 6 points to divisional foes in the Packers and Bears respectively in September, the Minnesota offense has averaged 30.8 PPG in its last seven as a visitor.
San Francisco started the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ run before closing on a 7-2-1 ‘over’ surge. The Niners played their first eight games of the season against non-playoff teams before losing to Seattle (24-27) in Week 10. Make a note that All-Pro tight end George Kittle was ‘out’ for San Francisco in that setback to the Seahawks.
At home, the ‘over’ went 5-3 for the 49ers behind the top-ranked scoring offense at home this season with 32.4 PPG. As mentioned above, they scored 31 when playing with rest but the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in games played after the ‘bye’ for San Francisco under Shanahan.
Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in its last five postseason games, which includes the Wild Card result this past weekend at New Orleans. The 49ers have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last postseason appearance (2013-14).
Going back to 2003, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in this head-to-head series.
301MINNESOTA -302 SAN FRANCISCO
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (10 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.
303TENNESSEE -304 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.
NFL
Long Sheet
Saturday, January 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (11 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 3) - 1/11/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (10 - 7) at BALTIMORE (14 - 2) - 1/11/2020, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 124-158 ATS (-49.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Trend Report
Sunday, January 12
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
DUNKEL
Saturday, January 11
Minnesota @ San Francisco
Game 301-302
January 11, 2020 @ 4:35 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
136.463
San Francisco
136.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
Even
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+7); Over
Tennessee @ Baltimore
Game 303-304
January 11, 2020 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
140.638
Baltimore
146.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+9); Over
Total Talk - DP Saturday
Chris David
Wild Card Weekend Recap
The ‘under’ trend continued in the Wild Card round last weekend as the low side went 4-0. Including those results, the ‘under’ has gone 10-2 (83%) the past three years in the opening round and it’s 24-7-1 (77%) in the last eight WC weekends. Going back even further to the 2004-05 postseason, the ‘under’ has gone 42-21-1 (67%). Perhaps things will change in 2021?
Divisional Playoff History
While the Wild Card weekend has produced a great return for ‘under’ bettors recently, the opposite can be said for the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoffs. The high side has gone 8-4 (67%) in the last three years of the Divisional Round and we haven’t seen the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 mark or better since 2013. If you plan on chasing with ‘over’ wagers this weekend after the WC results, it’s safe to say you should hit at least one ticket.
If there are some angles that stick out in the above table, you can see that home teams have gone 9-3 in this round since 2016 and they’ve averaged 29.6 points per game while the visitors have notched 21.5 PPG.
Best Bet Selections
I didn’t hold back last week and came to the betting counter with six selections and the sweat meter was raised in a few of them. While I was fortunate to cash a few Team Total wagers on Buffalo and Tennessee, the Saints and Patriots didn’t do their part. The ‘under’ in the Seattle-Philadelphia game was never in doubt and the Wentz injury (Thanks Jadeveon!) helped us finish 3-3 on the weekend. Once again, you can hear all the analysis for the Divisional Round on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.
As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Minnesota at San Francisco (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 45 ½ and the number has dropped to 44 ½ as of Thursday. FoxBet, a major online shop for NJ and PA bettors, is a bit shorter at 44. I’m a little surprised of the slight downward movement, especially since weather isn’t expected to be a factor on the West Coast this Saturday afternoon.
Minnesota is coming off a solid 26-20 overtime road win over New Orleans last Sunday and while you don’t want to take anything away from the Vikings defense, the Saints certainly weren’t sharp and they left a handful of points off the board. The game went ‘under’ (50) and that result snapped a 5-0 ‘over’ run on the road for the Vikings.
Despite that ticket going to the low side, the Vikings offense did their part and that’s been a steady trend for the offense. Since being held to a combined 22 points in their first two road games of the season, Minnesota is averaging 30.8 PPG in its last seven outside of Minneapolis and they’ve played in some hostile environments (Chiefs, Cowboys, Seahawks) all season too.
Levi’s Stadium doesn’t necessarily put a scare in opponents but the 49ers went 6-2 at home this season and the ‘over’ was 5-3 in those games behind a San Francisco offense that averaged 32.4 PPG, ranked second at home in the league. The 49ers will be playing with rest and the club defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ‘bye’ week in this year’s regular season. Prior to that win, the 49ers were winless in their last eight games (0-7-1) in the regular season when playing with rest. The ‘under’ (48) cashed against the Browns and the low side is now 3-0 after the bye for the 49ers since head coach Kyle Shanahan took over the team.
Shanahan will be making his postseason debut and he certainly doesn’t have as much playoff experience as his counterpart, Mike Zimmer of the Vikings (2-2 playoff record). However, he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons during their 2016 postseason run that ended in a collapsing 34-28 loss to New England. Prior to the Super Bowl, Atlanta scored 36 and 44 points at home in the playoffs as the top seed.
The 49ers won’t have Matt Ryan at quarterback, rather Jimmy Garropolo and some pundits would say that the youngster is better than Falcons veteran and that argument could be solidified this weekend if Jimmy G wins his playoff debut against the Vikings. You can’t dismiss his career record of 21-5 as a starter and he’s had to produce more lately because the Niners defensive unit has allowed 29.4 PPG in the final month of the season and that’s led to a 3-1-1 ‘over’ mark.
Garoppolo and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins went head-to-head in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and the Vikings captured a 24-16 win as the ‘under’ (46) connected. Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win while Jimmy G struggled, tossing a career-high three interceptions. San Francisco hasn’t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season and during that run, the ‘under’ went 3-0 in three games. The Vikings have seen their ‘over/under’ results go 2-2 in the playoffs under Zimmer.
Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks
Of the four Divisional Playoff teams going on the road this weekend, I believe Minnesota will have the best opportunity to put up points. The offense has traveled well recently and playing on the West Coast hasn’t been in issue either. They scored 39 at the Chargers and 30 at the Seahawks this season, plus they put up 31 on the Rams at Los Angeles in the 2018 regular season. All three of those games went ‘over’ and I believe this matchup will see points too. Along with playing the Minnesota Team Total Over (19 ½) in this spot, I believe San Francisco will match points too and that has me leaning Over (44 ½) in the game too. Let’s call it 34-30 for the 49ers.
Tennessee at Baltimore (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Saturday’s primetime matchup has also seen money come in on the ‘under’ as the total on the Tennessee-Baltimore matchup at FoxBet (NJ & PA only) moved from 49 to 47.
Similar to the Vikings, the Titans were on a great ‘over’ run to close the season (9-1) and on the road (4-0) but that came to an end in the WC round as they stifled the Patriots 20-13 as road favorites. Overall, Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ go 10-7 this season and that includes a 5-4 mark outside of Nashville. Since QB Ryan Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game and the defense has certainly helped the cause – see last week's late touchdown at Foxboro.
I wasn’t surprised by Tennessee winning outright last Saturday but holding New England’s offense in check was certainly eye-opening especially since its scoring defense (20.2 PPG) wasn’t exactly lights out this season, ranked 12th in the league. However, its numbers on the road dropped to 17.1 PPG albeit seven of those games came against non-playoff teams and the Texans, one of the two playoff clubs, rolled out backups in Week 17.
Now Tennessee faces the top-ranked scoring offense in Baltimore (33.2 PPG) on the road and that’s a much stiffer test than New England. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has put up MVP numbers this season but the unit was better on the road (36.5 PPG) than at home (29.9 PPG). In eight games from Maryland, the total results went 4-4 and the Baltimore defense (18.6 PPG) certainly helped those outcomes.
Even though Jackson is 0-1 in the playoffs, the experienced edge goes to the Ravens with John Harbaugh as coach. He’s owns a 10-6 career postseason mark, which includes a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark at home. The loss came last season with Jackson under center and he played horrible in a 23-17 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, completing just 48 percent of his passes.
Historically, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points during that span. Also, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven postseason games. Those stats have nothing to do with these teams but facts are facts. If you want another good tidbit for this game, check out Matt Blunt’s Sunday’s Best Bets, which focuses on an angle circling around NFL leading rusher -- Titans running back Derrick Henry.
Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks
I believe Jackson will avenge what happened to him in last year’s playoffs and Baltimore will be hosting the AFC Championship next Sunday. However, my lean is based on the defense of Baltimore and I believe the unit will step up in this spot and I’m riding the tendencies we’ve seen under Harbaugh. When playing with rest, the Ravens have gone 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS under him and the defense has only allowed 15.1 PPG which has helped the ‘under’ go 8-4-1. I’m going to stay away from the Under on the game but back the Tennessee Team Total Under (19 ½) instead. Ravens by double digits here, 30-12 is my projection.