Harry Bondi
VIRGINIA TECH (+3) over Miami
Strictly by the numbers here and they all favor Virginia Tech. Hokies have won and covered 8 out of the last 11 with Miami including winning the last 3 at home by an average of 19 points. Miami has been good at home, 4-0 straight up and ATS, and lousy on the road, 0-3 both straight up and ATS. Frank Beamer coached teams have been one of the best squads to back as underdogs on the history of college football, particularly aat home where they are 17-6 as home dogs. Again!
River City Sharps
Virginia Tech +2.5
Kicking ourselves because we could have gotten this one out earlier this morning, but were waiting to get better feel on line moves and where the real “buying” was taking place. That was a mistake as we could have had Va Tech +3 earlier today, but not we’re seeing some steady money coming in on the Hokies. We’re going to limit the write up here because we want to get the play out as quickly as possible. We believe that this line is over adjusted based on the Hokies loss at Pittsburgh last week. They are a much better play at home and have won eight of the last 11 meetings between these two schools, including the last three games by an average of 19 points. While we like Johnson at RB for Miami, we’re still not buyers on Brad Kaaya at QB and think Tech DC Bud Foster dials up some much different looks tonight for the Hokies defense. The value for us clearly lies with the home dog and if you can get it at +3, we would make this a 3 unit play. As it currently stands, the consensus line is +2.5, so we will release the Hokies and dial down to a 2 Unit selection.
Dr Bob
EAST CAROLINA (-27½) 41 Connecticut 10
Connecticut’s only victory this season was an ugly 19-16 home win over FCS team Stony Brook as a 16½ point favorite and the Huskies have yet to cover a spread all season long (0-6 ATS). U Conn’s problem is a feeble offense that has averaged only 12.8 points on 258 yards per game at 4.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average offense) and I don’t even see them reaching those pathetic numbers against a better than average East Carolina defense that has allowed just 4.9 yppl in 5 FBS games to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. U Conn actually has a pretty solid defense, as the Huskies have yielded just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. However, East Carolina has one of the best offensive teams in the nation and the Pirates have averaged 39 points on 561 yards at 7.4 yards per play against 5 FBS opponents that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. ECU is projected to fall short of those numbers today (522 yards at 7.3 yppl is projected) but they should score more than their 39 point average because they’ll likely have better field position due to how bad Connecticut’s offense is. The math picks this game 41-10 and I see no reason to deviate from that projection.
Mike O'Connor
DENVER (-9.5) 32 San Diego 19
The Broncos come into this game off of an impressive 42-17 victory over the 49ers last Sunday night for their fourth home victory in four tries so far this season. They have faced an impressive schedule of opponents in the Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals and 49ers at home and have outscored them on average 35-20. Meanwhile the Chargers are coming off of a home loss to the Chiefs and have beaten a far less impressive schedule of opponents in the Raiders, Jets, Jaguars, Bills and the Seahawks (teams with a combined 9-24 record). From a match-up perspective, the Chargers don’t have much of a chance to run the ball against an excellent Broncos defensive front that is allowing just 74 yards at 3.4 ypr to teams that average 128 yards at 4.5 ypr. That has been the Chargers game plan in recent meetings and they have done it well. If they can’t run and they are one dimensional, the Broncos excellent pass rush will harass Philip Rivers and make moving the ball through the air against them very difficult. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been lights out and are really hitting their stride, generating 422 yards at 8.0 yppl last week against a good San Francisco defense.
With San Diego’s top two corners out/injured (Brandon Flowers has already been ruled out while Jason Verett is looking unlikely to play) Peyton Manning will no doubt take advantage of a banged up Chargers secondary. In addition, the Chargers have been the luckiest team in the league so far in regards to fumble luck and that has them a bit overvalued. Denver qualifies in a 665-498-40 situation and my primary model favors them by -14.6 points. The Broncos learned from last seasons’ Thursday night home loss to San Diego and changed their practice schedule this week to really focus on this game and should be better prepared to play well. However, San Diego has played Denver tough recently. Since 2012 of the 5 games that they have played only one has been decided by more than 7 points. This is too many points for me to give in a place where Philip Rivers has had a lot of success in his career (6-2 SU in the regular season) and with an offense capable of putting up points of their own the backdoor cover is always a scary proposition. I’ll pass but offer a lean to the Broncos.