Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October 25

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Kansas City at San Francisco
The Giants look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss as they face a Royals team that is 2-5 in Jason Vargas' last 7 road starts. San Francisco is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125)

Game 907-908: Kansas City at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 11.109; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 12.583
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over

NHL

Boston at Toronto
The Bruins head to Toronto tonight where they are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus the Maple Leafs. Boston is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120)

Game 51-52: Buffalo at San Jose (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.539; San Jose 12.156
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-380); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-380); Over

Game 53-54: Boston at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.523; Toronto 11.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

Game 55-56: NY Rangers at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.553; Montreal 12.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130); Under

Game 57-58: New Jersey at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.093; Ottawa 10.178
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 59-60: Dallas at NY Islanders (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.740; NY Islanders 11.223
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 61-62: Detroit at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.387; Philadelphia 11.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over

Game 63-64: Chicago at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.467; St. Louis 11.775
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 65-66: Pittsburgh at Nashville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.465; Nashville 11.011
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Over

Game 67-68: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.312; Minnesota 12.441
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-160); Under

Game 69-70: Florida at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.109; Arizona 10.011
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Arizona (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+140); Over

Game 71-72: Washington at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.543; Calgary 11.197
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under

DAVE COKIN

MISSISSIPPI STATE AT KENTUCKY
PLAY: KENTUCKY +13.5

Let’s leave no doubt that I think Mississippi State is completely legit and the Bulldogs definitely have a realistic chance of making the inaugural four-team playoff this season. But even the best teams have bad scheduling spots and I consider this to be exactly that for Dan Mullen’s red hot entry.

This isn’t an opinion, it’s a fact. About the worst thing that can happen for an unbeaten team once the midway point of the season has been reached is a bye week. That might not seem logical on the surface, but the numbers don’t lie, and unbeaten road teams with rest have a tendency to struggle.

I think there’s a rationale for this taking place. First, the bye week can be a momentum breaker for a red hot team. It’s also an opportunity for the players to enjoy a heavy dose of hero worship on campus, while also dreaming about that pot of gold that’s waiting at the end of the proverbial rainbow. Don’t discount pressclippingitis as a potential distraction as well.

The aforementioned potholes have gotten the best of teams far more used to the spotlight than Mississippi State. This is a great story unfolding in Starkville, but it’s also very unexpected and brand new. So my sense is that as dominant as the Bulldogs have been, they could be ultra-vulnerable to having their collective heads in the clouds.

Kentucky got absolutely crushed last Saturday. The Wildcats are now being looked upon as little more than a formality win for Mississippi State by virtually all of the TV talking heads. I see that making Kentucky more dangerous. The no respect angle will be in play in Lexington all week in practice and off the disaster at Baton Rouge, this is also a redemption game for the Wildcats.

I can’t see Kentucky being quite good enough to pull the upset here. But I do think they’re good enough to make this a very scary Saturday for the heavy favorite. The Wildcats are 5-0 at home, including a nice win against South Carolina, and I believe that should eliminate the intimidation factor. The home team needs to get last week’s misfire out of its heads in a hurry, so a good start here is important. If Kentucky falls down early they could get rolled by the Bulldogs.

But the bottom line for me is that there’s a clear and irrefutable track record of big favorites failing in this specific scenario, and I feel that could well take place here. Kentucky in the plus two-TD neighborhood is very playable.

Nick Parsons

Michigan vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -16½

The Michigan Wolverines have found out recently what a "Little brother' does when they grow up.....They kick the crap out of their bigger brother. That is what has been happening and will continue to happen this weekend in East Lansing. i see The Spartans of Michigan State controlling all aspects of this game. The Spartans will be able to move the ball against the Wolverine and the Spartan defense will be able to contain the Wolverines offense much as they did last year. Granted the Spartans defense isn't as good as last year but neither is the Wolverine’s offense. I think Michigan will keep it close on emotion at the start but Sparty will pull away in the second half and win BIG.

EZWINNERS

Oklahoma State Cowboys -1

The Mountaineers are coming off of a huge home underdog win over the #4 ranked Baylor Bears last week. The hosting Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a pissed off mode as they were drilled last week in Fort Worth by TCU. I look for the roles to be reversed in this game. WV will have a hard time matching last week's mattress burning intensity on the road in Stillwater. The Pokes will be focused and should not have a problem putting points on the board against a Mountaineer defense that has allowed an average of over 35 points per game in their two road games at Texas Tech and Maryland. The Cowboys have scored 37 or more points in all four of their home games this season. OSU is on a 15-7-1 run against the spread in Stillwater. Play on Oklahoma State.

LSU Tigers +3.5

Ole Miss is off to a great 7-0 start and they are also 7-0 against the spread! LSU is improving, but they are still a very young team led by a freshmen quarterback who will be facing a Rebels defense that is one of the best in the nation. There are not a lot of good "football" reason to like LSU, but getting the Tigers as a rare home underdog in a night game in Baton Rouge is too good to pass up. LSU lost 27-24 last season at Ole Miss and the Tigers are a perfect 9-0 against the spread as an underdog seeking revenge. Tigers head coach Les Miles will find a way with this young LSU team. Take the points.

USC Trojans PICK

Utah is having a great season, but I like the way USC matches up with the Utes in this critical PAC12 match up. Utah's defense has been great. They are tops in the nation in sacks and also do a very good job against the run. However this is a very explosive USC team that they will be facing. The Trojan's quarterback Cody Kessler is rolling and his confidence will be at an all time high after a record setting performance last week against Colorado. The Utes will apply try to apply their pressure, but that will also make then vulnerable to dump passes to running back Buck Allen had his sixth 100 yard game of the season and scored a touchdown for the sixth straight game last week. The Utes offense can struggle at times and unless their defense forces some turnovers to setup some easy scores I don't like their chances. Play on USC.

Harry Bondi

TEMPLE (+7) over Central Florida

Despite a disheartening 31-10 loss to Houston last week, the Owls have been good to our bankroll, going 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Temple has also historically been a great “bounce back” team, covering 7 of its last 8 off a straight-up loss and an even more profitable 8-2 ATS when off a loss of more than 20 points. The Owls have scored 35 points or more in four out of six games this season and will have far too much offensive firepower for a Central Florida team that was absolutely dismal last week in a sub par 20-13 win over Tulane in which it gained just 233 total yards and 14 first downs. Take the generous points!

Sleepyj

Colorado St. -18.5

Colorado State is now 6-1 on the year and they can run the table all the way out. I think they finish with only 1 loss and they can make a real quality bowl. They have no look ahead games left on the schedule. They are ranked #17 in the pass and can run as well ranking #72. They avg around 500 ypg. The defense is really under rated here as well..QB Grayson is a beast throwing the ball and he already has 2k passing yards and 16td's...RB Hart can be a handful and really off sets the defense with his ability to run the ball..Colorado St lone loss comes to Boise St in Boise. They avg around 30ppg and give up around 18ppg...Now for Wyoming, this team is a disaster to be honest. They rank in the 100"s on offense and defense. The best win on the year for this club is Vs. Air force. Other two wins..barely..beat Montana and Fla Atl..They have lost the 4 games vs better opponents by 165 to 76. The defense gives up roughly 31ppg. but those numbers are miscued a little with the 3 wins they have against inept offensive teams. They can give 35 to 40+ in this one. Wyoming offense just lacks depth and talent. They pass the ball for less than 200ypg..they rank #100 and the run is ranked 99th...This is not a good team. They now go into a rowdy Rams home and will get blasted by a number of scores...Gets out of hand..Rams 45-17.

Matt Fargo

UMass vs. Toledo
Play: UMass +17

Massachusetts is just 2-6 on the season but it is much better than that record shows. Four of those losses have been by five points or less including three by a field goal or less so a few breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. The Minutemen won just one game in each of the past two seasons but have already surpassed those totals thanks to its current two-game winning streak. Defeating Kent and Eastern Michigan may not be overly impressive but both wins were blowouts and they outgained the two opponents by 141 and 282 yards respectively. Toledo is coming off its bye week following a loss at Iowa St. which snapped its three-game winning streak. The Rockets are now laying their biggest number of the season which I feel is unjustified against one of the better teams in the MAC that are getting a different perception by the public. They have been outgained on four of their six games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous. That is not a good sign for a Massachusetts team that is starting to hit its stride offensively, averaging 39.8 ppg over its last four games. We don't need the outright victory here as getting this many points against a horrific defense is a sure take. That defensive ineptness is backed up by a situation where we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons.

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DAVE COKIN

USC AT UTAH
PLAY: USC -1

I see USC/Utah as one of the most intriguing matchups on the Saturday college slate. I don’t think either team is a true Top 20 entry, but each side is knocking on that door and this game is huge as far as the PAC-12 South race is concerned.

The Trojans have the athletes to give Utah fits in this game, and I think that’s one of the two big keys to this game. USC needs to do whatever it takes to speed things upland get Utah out of its comfort zone. The more wide open, the better from USC’s vantage point.

Utah, on the other hand, would prefer trench warfare. The Utes are in good shape if they can get first down stops. That would likely enable their outstanding pass rush to at least contain Trojans QB Cody Kessler.

Kessler is having a great year for USC. He’s accurate with his throws and I’ve been really impressed with his willingness to not force bad throws that lead to turnovers. But that could change if Utah is able to exert its usual pressure. To accomplish that, the Utes must find a way to limit Javorius Allen, who’s rumbling for more than six yards per pop.

Utah needs to establish its running game to sustain some productive drives against USC. I think that’s something they can do, as Devontae Booker is running ball very well. QB Travis Wilson can manage the offense effectively in reasonable yardage situations.

So it’s a guessing game of sorts as to how this plays out in terms of each team accomplishing its main objectives. My take is that in the end, the athletic superiority of the Trojans will be the difference. My greatest concern is Kyle Whittingham. The Utah coach is a terrific game planner and he successfully overcame the speed disadvantage in an impressive win at UCLA. But the Bruins were undisciplined with their assignments throughout that game, and I thought they lost the game more than Utah won it.

With the game being lined where it is, it’s probably a good assumption that this one could go right to the wire. But I’m siding with the view that Allen can produce enough on the ground to enable the very talented Kessler to carve up the Utah secondary and lessen the impact of that Utah pass rush. I’ll opt to side with USC as the winner in what should be one of the day’s best games.

Bryan Leonard

North Carolina / Virginia Under 65

The Tar Heels are allowing 43.3 points per game on the season. 218 yards on the ground and 305 through the air. In three road games North Carolina is permitting 56.7 points per game. But keep in mind that was at East Carolina, Clemson and Notre Dame. The Cavaliers just don't have a potent offense averaging 29 ppg. That includes games against Richmond and Kent State. The Cavaliers need to keep the Tar Heels off the field which means running the football and sustained drives. That leads to a lower than expected scoring contest.

Bryan Power

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State

The line for this Big 12 matchup is heading in the wrong direction, at least in my opinion. I can see why it is, seeing as West Virginia comes off a very impressive outright win at home over previously unbeaten Baylor while at the same time OSU was hammered 42-9 by TCU. But those results work to our advantage here.....

This is a huge revenge game for the Pokes, who lost to the Mountaineers LY in Morgantown, 30-21 as big 19-point favorites. It was the first of only three losses for Mike Gundy's team in 2013, the other two coming in the final two games. So you can bet they've had this one circled in Stillwater for some time. It's also Homecoming at Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday. FWIW, Oklahoma State has won 6 of its last 7 HC games. Don't forget that the Cowboys have only lost to Top 10 teams this year, TCU and Florida State.

West Virginia is improved, but certainly not a Top 10 team. Their only losses came against Alabama and Oklahoma. But it's difficult to like them outside of Morgantown as their two road wins this year have each come by a field goal against lesser foes. I don't know if it was "home cookin'" or not, but WVU also benefitted tremendously last week from a number of questionable pass interference calls against Baylor.

Steve Janus

San Jose State vs. Navy
Play: Navy -8½

With starting quarterback Keenan Reynolds expected to return to action and Navy coming off a much-needed bye, I look for the Midshipmen to have their way against the Spartans. Last year Navy put up 432 rushing yards on San Jose State in a thrilling 58-52 win. The Midshipmen can expect to have another field day on the ground in this one. Navy comes in 3rd in rushing in 2014 at 342.1 ypg and will be going up against the Spartans 106th ranked run defense (218.5 ypg). Unlike last year, the San Jose State doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this one close. The Spartans are 107th in scoring at 22.0 ppg. I believe the only reason this spread isn't double-digits is because San Jose State has the 12th ranked defense in the country. However, that's because they lead the country in pass defense (94.5 ypg). Being able to stop the pass is about as absolutely worthless against a team like Navy, who is averaging 11 pass attempts all season. Navy should have no problem winning here by at least 10 points.

Bill Biles

UCLA -14

The Bruins have dominated Colorado since the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12, eclipsing 40 points in all three meetings. Colorado has dropped 16 straight to ranked teams, and the Buffaloes have lost 27 of 31 conference games since joining the Pac-12.

Ross Benjamin

Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -3.0

The Panthers are far from a bad team, but you just don’t know what Pitt team will show up, the one that knocked off Boston College and Virginia Tech, or the one that was beaten at home as a 20.5 point favorite by Akron. Despite the inconsistencies, the Panthers match up very well versus Georgia Tech. They’re stout against the run, and they possess a very good rushing attack that averages 239-yards per game, and 5.2 yards per carry. Georgia Tech has had no answer for stopping the run this season, and their vaunted rushing attack will be neutralized in this one.

Any conference home favorite of 6.0 or less, coming off a conference home underdog straight up win by 3-points or more, and they have a winning percentage of less than .600, has gone 20-1 SU&ATS since 1999. Play on Pittsburgh minus the small number as a free selection.

Freddy Wills

North Carolina vs. Virginia
Play: North Carolina +7

Virginia wins with their defense and they haven’t faced an offense as good as North Carolina. Both BYU and UCLA had similar QB and attacks and Virginia lost both of those games. I don’t think Virginia’s offense is good enough to cover a TD spread even though the Tar Heels have shown nothing on defense. Marqise Williams should be able to move the ball effectively enough to score some points. Virginia’s head coach Mike London has been in this spot before and I wouldn’t be surprised if North Carolina came in and won and Virginia’s season got away from them. The last two years Virginia’s talented defense has had no answer for North Carolina’s spread offense.

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