Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Virginia Tech / Miami Under 49: Miami put up 55 points last week, but that was vs one of the worst defenses in the nation. That will not be the case here, as they Hokies have allowed just 20 ppg on the year, including just 18.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Prior to scoring 55 vs Cincinnati, the Canes scored just 39 total points in their two previous games and they have averaged just 20.3 ppg on the road, which is also the same amount that Va Tech has allowed at home. The Hokie offense is not an up tempo one and while they have scored 28.4 ppg, they will be taking on a solid Miami defense that has allowed just 327 ypg and 24.4 ppg on the year. The Under is 12-5 in Miami's last 17 Thursday night games, while the Under is 17-4 in Virginia Tech's last 21 Thursday night games, plus the Under is 8-3 the last 11 meetings between these team. No more than 42 points in this one.
BEST OF THE REST
East Carolina / UConn Under 55: I know the Pirates can score a bazillion points, but they have also played some bad defenses this year, including South Carolina SMU, North Carolina and NC Central (FCS School). Everyone has been putting up points on those teams this year. Now lets look at two team that the Pirates have faced that have played solid defense this year. One is the Hokies, who have a top 20 defense year in and year out and the other is South Florida, who doesn't have a horrible defense, but are far better than the other 4 listed above. In those two games the Pirates have been able to score just 28 points in each game.Now they face a UConn team that has allowed 25.7 ppg, but also ranks 17th in total yards allowed, 31st vs the pass and 28th vs the run. This is a Bob Diaco defense that will find away to keep the Pirates under 40 points in this game, especially with the week off. The Huskies are a very bad offensive team, as they have scored just 12.8 ppg, plus they also play a grind it out style of ball with will help limit the possessions of the pirates in this one. Lets also note that they will be taking on a Carolina defense that has allowed just 23.8 ppg on the year. I don't see the Huskies coming close to 24 points in this game. I see this one in the mid to upper 40's.
Jimmy Boyd
Chargers/Broncos Under 52
The books have set this total too high. Divisional matchups have a tendency to be lower-scoring games due to both teams being so familiar with one another. Each of the 3 meetings between these two teams last year finished with 48 points or fewer and all 3 had a total set above 50 points.
San Diego knows that if they want any chance of keeping this game close, they have to control the clock, which is exactly what they have done over recent meetings. The Chargers accounted for at least 35 minutes of possession in all 3 meetings last year and I expect them do the same this time around. San Diego is one of the best in the league at converting 3rd downs and have found a new gem at running back in Branden Oliver.
Defensively the Chargers are going to do focus their attention on not allowing the Broncos to pick up big chunks of yards and force them to sustain drivers, which is going to eat up the clock. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos tried to take up a little more clock, knowing that their lack of possession in recent meetings has allowed San Diego to keep it close. The Chargers have also done a great job against the pass this season. They come in 3rd in the league, allowing just 209.6 ypg.
Both coaches have shown a tendency for low-scoring games against similar opponents. The UNDER is 9-2 in McCoy's last 11 games against strong passing teams who are completing 61% or more of their attempts and 7-0 in Fox's last 7 home games when he's faced an opponent that's outscoring teams by 10+ ppg.
We also see a strong system in play suggesting that this contest will finish below the total. The UNDER is 59-27 since 1983 in division games where you have one team off a home win and a total of 49.5 or more points. That's a 69% system.
Brandon Shively
Miami vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Miami -3
I like Miami tonight in this Thursday night game. They are playing with revenge from last year's 42-24 loss, and have had almost two weeks to get ready for this one. In 2011, Al Golden and his team played @ Virginia Tech as a 7 point road dog and covered the spread in a 38-35 loss. Golden then got his revenge in 2012 with a 30-12 win. Last year the Hurricanes took a 42-24 loss, and I am looking for Golden to get his revenge again tonight. I will note that in last year's game, Miami's star RB Duke Johnson did not play, nor did Phillip Dorsett who is the Hurricanes leading receiver this season.
The Hurricanes have gotten outgained in their 3 road games, but only by a small amount (19,21 and 92 yards). I strongly feel that the 3 teams (G Tech, Nebraska, and Louisville) all have better offenses than this Virginia Tech team that continues to struggle with their run game. Miami's run defense is steadily improving, and they have a Top 20 pass defense that should be able to force some turnovers as the Virginia Tech QB, Brewer, has 11 INT's on the season already.
I really think that Miami will be able to run the ball on Virginia Tech, and control the line of scrimmage in this game. The Hurricanes have a premier back in Duke Johnson (7.2 yards a carry and they are averaging 5.3 yards a carry as a team. Virginia Tech, on the other hand is only averaging 3.9 yards a carry as a team.
Virginia Tech has not been impressive at home this season. They are 2-2 SU with the wins coming against West Michigan and William & Mary. The losses came against Georgia Tech and East Carolina. This is a big problem as they lost to a team that excels in the run game with Georgia Tech and then a team that excels in the passing game with E. Carolina. Look for Miami to use a bit of both in this game as they should put up anywhere from 24-31 points in this one which will be enough to get the cover vs. a Hokie team that has still not scored more than 35 points this season. I strongly feel that the Hurricanes have the better athletes on offense and it will be apparent in this game.
In closing, Miami is averaging 7 yards a play on offense and they have the better, more efficient offense. On defense, I will call it about equal for both teams, but I think the Hurricanes have a better defensive line and a better secondary. With the V. Tech QB throwing being turnover prone, I give Miami the advantage in this one. I also give Miami the motivational edge as they are playing with revenge. HC Golden is 7-1 ATS on the road coming off a DD SU win and he will have his team ready tonight on Primetime TV as Miami FL. is 17-3 SU all time on ESPN Thursday Nights.
Bruce Marshall
Connecticut at East Carolina
Pick: East Carolina
Usually not too interested in laying a 4 TD-plus price. But given that UConn has yet to cover a pointspread in six tries this season and continues to have severe firepower issues, we take tonight and back potent ECU. Huskies also not helping themselves with 122nd-ranked TO margin, and Pirates gunslinger QB Shane Carden has very positive 16-4 TDP-int. ration this season.
Steve Janus
Miami Hurricanes -3
You know the Virginia Tech program is headed in the wrong direction when they are a home underdog in a weekday game. I don't like the Hurricanes enough to put them out as a premium play, but I like their chances of winning and covering on the road in Blacksburg. Outside of a surprising win at Ohio State, Virginia Tech hasn't really done anything to impress me. They lost at home to both East Carolina and Georgia Tech and were completely outplayed at Pittsburgh this post Thursday. While the Hokies won last year's meeting 42-24 at Miami, it came after the Hurricanes lost star running back Duke Johnson. I have a difficult time seeing the Hokies slow down Johnson, especially with leading tackler in linebacker Chase Williams not expected to play after suffering a knee injury last week against Pitt. Williams is just one of several players that make a long list of injured Hokies.
Miami's defense has thrived on takeaways and Virginia Tech has struggled to protect the football. The Hurricanes are also a much better defensive team than they get credit for. They are allowing just 24.4 ppg against teams averaging 30.3 ppg, giving up just 3.6 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.6 ypc and just 5.6 yards/completion against teams averaging 7.1.
System - Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games with a winning record on the season against another team with a winning record are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Sam Martin
Miami FL at Virginia Tech
Prediction: Miami FL
Hokies have been a very tough team to figure out - they look great some weeks (like in their road wins at Ohio State and North Carolina) and then look like complete garbage in other weeks (three outright losses as favorites). We'll fade Virginia Tech coming off a bad loss at Pittsburgh last week, and look for Miami's running game to pick up where the Panthers left off last week.
Pittsburgh put up 210 yards rushing in last week's 21-16 victory, and while Miami doesn't have a great passing attack, they have a very good running game and should be able to continue that running dominance this Thursday. Hokies home field advantage is almost non-existent, already losing outright at home against East Carolina and Georgia Tech despite being listed as favorites of more than touchdown in both of those games.
Antony Dinero
Connecticut at East Carolina
Play: East Carolina -27.5
There's going to be a blackout in Greenville, N.C. on Thursday night and it won't be of the power failure variety. Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium is going to be rocking as students and fans It's an opportunity for the Pirates to flex some muscle and garner national attention against a UConn team they share little in common with other than both are coming off bye weeks. The Pirates have a great quarterback, the Huskies don't. The Huskies run a ball control offense, as defensive-minded first-year head coach Bob Diaco accentuates the lone strength he inherited, while ECU's Ruffin McNeill and Lincoln Riley have long run one of college football's most prolific spread offenses. November gets tough for the Pirates, who have to hit the road for three of four. They'll take full advantage of their homefield edge and bask in the spotlight. Lay the points and back East Carolina and the over for the in-game parlay.
Wunderdog
Vancouver @ St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -150
Everything was going well for Vancouver last season, and then this team took a deep dive and never recovered. They opened the season vindicating last year's finsih with three wins, but all of a sudden they have dropped two straight, and neither were close as they have been outscored 10-5 in the pair of losses. This team has shown little backbone when facing adversity, and they are in a tough spot here on the road vs. St. Louis. The Blues have been imressive in their two wins as they have come by a combined score of 10-2, and have been competitive in their losses. The one constant has been the defense as they have allowed just 9 goals on the season. The offense should find some openings tonight against a Vancouver team that must have that de ja vu feeling from a year ago, when everything unraveld, and the 10 goals they have allowed in their last two games is cause for concern. Back the home team Blues.
Wunderdog
Game: Miami Florida @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Under 48.5
Both of these teams have storied pasts filled with glory, but they have each stepped aside from the spotlight as the programs try to get back to the level they once were. This becomes a big game from the standpoint that each are 1-2 in conference play, but trail by just a single game. The winner will be right in the race, while the loser may very well fall out of the race all together. I expect a physical game because of the impact and that usually means defense. As usual, Virginia Tech has defended well and has not allowed more than 28 points to anyone all season, including Ohio State, East Carolina as well as Georgia Tech. Miami has been limited on the road offensively where they have scored just 20 points per game on the season. Both of these teams have brought the "D" under the Thursday night spotlight with Miami at 12-5 to the UNDER, and the Hokies at 17-4 to the UNDER on Thursday Night contests. This one stays UNDER.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -½ -115 over Arizona
Regulation only. Arizona has picked up a respectable 5 out of a possible 10 points. That’s nice for a team that has perhaps the least amount of talent in the NHL but man, are they up against it here. Arizona has allowed four goals or more in four of its five games. When a team is focused and jacked up to play, the Coyotes are in in trouble. Indeed Arizona has a couple of nice wins but it's a small oasis in a desert of despair. The Yotes lost to St. Louis 6-1 and they lost to Winnipeg 6-2 and they’ll now play a team that cannot wait to get back on the ice.
Minnesota has played just four games this season, which is the least amount in the league. They have played just one home game which occurred back on October 9 when they outshot the Avs 48-16 and won 5-0. The Wild have dropped two straight to Anaheim and Los Angeles by identical 2-1 scores. They had the Ducks on the ropes until Anaheim scored a lucky shorthanded goal to tie it in the third. At that point, the Ducks were fortunate to not be down by three goals. Two nights later, the Wild went into Los Angeles and outshot the Kings, 41-16 and played practically the entire game in L.A.’s end. It was one of the sickest and most frustrating losses for anyone that wagered on the Wild that night. Minnesota has dominated every game they have played in thus far, yet they are just 2-2. They have allowed just four goals against in four games and they possess perhaps the best defense in the league to go along with a group of strong two-way players that take a back-seat to nobody, not even the Kings. Minnesota is a powerhouse that has as good a chance to win the Cup this year as any team in the league. There is very little chance that the Wild are going to allow a team like Arizona, with a garbage goaltender in Mike Smith, to come in here and defeat them after they dominated their past two games and have nothing to show for it. Seldom do we recommend laying juice and pucks but we’re extremely confident in Minnesota to put away this nothing team with relative ease.
N.Y. Islanders +157 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins got off to a bit of a slow start with three losses in their first four games but they have done a complete 180 by winning three of their next four. No question that the Bruins are a threat in the East but we’re seeing some weaknesses from Boston that we have not seen in the past few years. The biggest regression is on defense where Boston has allowed as many goals as they have scored and Tuukka Rask doesn’t look as invincible as he has in previous years. That’s not to say Rask is in trouble because it’s way too early to pass judgement in such a small sample size but he’s still been tagged for nine goals against in his past two games on just 60 shots. It looks like the B’s are going with Niklas Svedberg tonight anyway. It’s also worth noting that the Bruins got a bit of a monkey off their backs by winning two straight and three of four and that they have the Maple Leafs up next in Toronto on Saturday night.
By contrast, the Islanders got off to a torrid start by winning their first four games and scoring 19 goals in the process. It must be noted however, that the Islanders played Carolina twice and Buffalo once and combined, that pair has one victory in 12 games. The Islanders other victory occurred against the Sharks in OT but that was a flattering score to the Sharkies, as the Islanders outshot them 45-23 and spent most of the game in San Jose’s end. Most recently, the Islanders have dropped two straight to Pittsburgh and Toronto and because of that they are taking back a pretty hefty price here. Thing is, the Islanders were not outplayed in either one of their past two games. They had a 1-0 lead on Pittsburgh through one and were down 2-1 after two. The Pens added an empty netter to make the final 3-1 with shots on goal being just about even and so too, was time spent in the offensive end. Against the Maple Leafs, Jaroslav Halak had one of his stinkers that he has a few times every year and the Leafs buried five by him on just 28 shots. Now the Islanders with three strong road games in three tries this year take the road again with their extremely dangerous offense and much improved defense. It would come as no shock whatsoever if New York played another strong road game and emerged victorious. The tag on the Islanders is too high.
Columbus +158 over SAN JOSE
OT included. This is a tough spot for the Sharks, as they return home from five-games in seven nights on an East Coast swing that started in Washington and ended in Boston. This now becomes the Sharks fourth game in six nights and sixth game in nine nights. Incidentally, the Sharks are on a current run of 0-4 in their fourth game in six nights. San Jose has allowed nine goals against in their past two games to the Rangers and Bruins and chances are good that they’ll be somewhat lethargic here. Even if they are not, we still like the Jackets taking back a price like this one.
Columbus is 3-2 and this is the first game of a three games in four nights, Western trip. The Jackets have a pretty fair history of playing well on this trip and while they do have some significant injuries to key players (Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner and Nathan Horton) they are still a tough out. The Jackets lose some firepower, experience and grit with those players out but they are not ill-prepared, as they have plenty of depth with guys like Mark Letestu and Jack Skille moving up the totem pole. When key guys are out, teams have a propensity for digging down a little deeper. The spirit of the Jackets has not been sapped and in fact, they are playing their hearts out every shift. That said, this is more about fading the Sharks, who are priced too high in a difficult scheduling spot.
CALGARY -½ +103 over Carolina
Regulation only. The Hurricanes are still winless and hungry but the truth is they are fighting a losing battle with injuries to both Staal’s and a defense that is among the worst in the league. The ‘Canes offense isn’t very threatening either. Carolina has scored just 11 times in five games. In its last two games it has scored twice. They’ll now play their third consecutive on the road and with each loss, winning becomes more difficult. Calgary is not the team you want to be playing when searching for that illusive first win.
The Flames are for real. Projected to be near of the bottom of the West standings, Calgary is playing with a chip on their shoulder and they remain perhaps the hardest working team in the league under Bob Hartley. Besides that, they are so much talented than they get credit for. Mason Raymond is among the league leaders in points and is turning out to be another great acquisition by GM, Brad Treliving. Raymond joins Mikael Backlund, Joe Colborne and Jiri Hudler along with rookies Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau to provide the Flames with an underrated offense that has scored 20 times in eight games. Not great but let us point out that the Flames have played Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville and Tampa Bay in four of their eight games and when they played weaker defenses like Edmonton and Winnipeg, they scored nine times in two games. The Flames’ strength however is on defense where they employ one of the best units in the NHL with T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman and Kris Russell. Two of those guys are all-stars while the other two could crack the lineup of 90% of the teams in this league. Calgary returned home from a six-game trip and held the Lightning to 22 shots on net in a 2-1 OT loss. They are now 0-2 at home and they figure to be extremely hungry for a home victory after going 4-2 on the road. This is Calgary’s second game back after said trip and we can almost guarantee you that they will not get outworked or outplayed in this game and it sure doesn’t hurt that they are the superior team.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +9½ over DENVER
This line just keeps moving in Denver’s direction. Line opened at 7½, was at 8½ most of yesterday and is now up to 9½. It’s not often you get offered 9½ points with a quality team but that’s the case here and we’ll gladly bite because that is where the value lies. Just when the Chargers seem like they are an elite team, they struggle to beat the Raiders and then lose to the Chiefs in San Diego. Now the Chargers appear to be just another average team in a league full of them because of their last two results. That works to our advantage because we now get this quality team at an inflated price.
By contrast, Denver’s stock is extremely high after they buried the 49ers in prime time last week. Denver now plays in back-to-back prime time games and last week’s was especially emotional after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s record. The anticipation in Denver was tremendous. It’s also worth noting that it was a Sunday night late game, which gives the Broncos even less time to recover and prepare for this short week. The Broncos are a great team but you are still going to pay a major premium on them here because of the over-reaction to last Sunday’s win and because they are so popular among bettors. Another reason this number is high is because the Chargers have some key defensive players on the rack. However, in San Diego’s win at Denver last year, the Chargers started Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright at cornerback and Thomas Keiser and Reggie Walker at outside linebacker. With San Diego’s top two cornerbacks in Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) nursing injuries, along with rookie pass-rusher Jeremiah Attaochu (hamstring), the Chargers' projected starting cornerbacks are Wright and Marshall. And the team’s projected starting outside linebackers are Jarret Johnson and Walker. The bottom line is Pagano trusts his backup players to know and understand his complex scheme. Those fill-in guys proved they can execute his game when they did so last year against Manning. Furthermore, Philip Rivers is 6-2 with wins in four of his last five starts at Sports Authority Field during the regular season. The Chargers won 27-20 in Denver last year. The Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego. The Broncos would later win in the divisional round when they beat the Chargers 24-17. A well-coached, balanced team with a strong record and an attack that knows how to execute its way down the field is being offered substantial (inflated) weight here in a short week. That doesn’t happen often and it instantly makes us buyers.
Pass NCAAF
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins
Sidney Crosby was held pointless for the first time this season in Pittsburgh's 5-3 loss to Philadelphia last night. After finding the net in each of the Penguins' first four games, don't be surprised at all if the best player in the game bounces-back with a vengeance tonight in Detroit. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its last 13 games played without a day of rest. The Penguins also have won SEVEN of their last 10 meetings with the Red Wings. With Marc-Andre Fluery in net last night and in the first four games of the season for the Pens, expect Thomas Greiss to make his debut with Pittsburgh in the net tonight. Greiss is one of the better backup goaltenders in the league, after producing a 2.29 GAA along with a .920 save percentage for the Coyotes last season.
Detroit returns home for this game after a 2-1 loss at Montreal on Tuesday. The Red Wings are optimistic with getting Pavel Datsyuk back on the ice but head coach Mike Babcock has tempered initial expectations since their star center missed the entirety of training camp. Detroit has been awful on the power play this year where the Red wings have converted just TWO of their 24 opportunities while going scoreless over their last 13 opportunities during their last three games. The Red Wings also struggle against the better teams in the league having lost FIVE of their last seven games against teams with a winning record.
Dave Price
Connecticut +28.5
East Carolina stunned Virginia Tech and then hammered North Carolina by 29, but it hasn't gotten up for lesser opponents the same way. It only defeated SMU by 21 and South Florida by 17. UConn is having a rough season but hasn't lost by more than 26 points while playing some pretty good football teams (BYU & Boise State). The Huskies managed only three points at Tulane prior to their bye week, but they are on a 9-1 ATS run after being held to nine points or less. The Huskies are also 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday matchups while the Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday contests. The Pirates are also off a bye and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.
Jeff Alexander
East Carolina -27
Connecticut has no offense. East Carolina will be able to win this one by as much as it wants, and I expect it to be hungry after heading into its bye week off a subpar performance against South Florida. History is clear. ECU is one freight train we don't want to step in front of. Consider that favorites of 21.5 to 31.0 points that have gained 450 total yards or more in 5 consecutive games are 27-5 ATS since 1992, including 8-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenarios have been favored by 25.8 points on average and have won by an average of 34.5.
Doug Upstone
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -9
Play On home favorites like Denver in a game involving two teams who out-gain their opponents by 1.5 or more yards per pass, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in last game. The crucial element to this NFL system is the home favorites ability to stop the forward and limit the opposition. Teams like the Broncos in this spot are 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent the last 31 years, winning by 14-4 PPG.