Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 23

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL

Pittsburgh at Detroit
The Penguins look to bounce back from last night's 5-3 loss to Philadelphia and come into tonight's contest in Detroit with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games versus the Red Wings. Pittsburgh is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105)

Game 51-52: NY Islanders at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 9.873; Boston 11.376
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over

Game 53-54: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.402; Detroit 10.873
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Over

Game 55-56: Arizona at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 19.812; Minnesota 11.475
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-190); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-190); Under

Game 57-58: Chicago at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.221; Nashville 10.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Over

Game 59-60: Vancouver at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.447; St. Louis 11.923
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under

Game 61-62: Carolina at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.582; Calgary 10.497
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+140); Over

Game 63-64: Columbus at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.612; San Jose 11.729
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+160); Over

Game 65-66: Buffalo at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.837; Los Angeles 12.309
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-340); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-340); Over

EZWINNERS

San Diego Chargers +7

I believe that motivation was different for these two teams last week as they saw different outcomes to their games. San Diego was pretty flat in their home loss to the Chiefs. Its possible that the Chargers were looking ahead to this national TV game against Peyton Manning and company that was just four days away. Kansas City was desperate for a win and had two weeks to prepare coming off of a bye week. The Broncos had a huge win on Sunday Night Football against the 49ers in the Peyton Manning tribute as everyone knew he would break Brett Favre's touchdown record. Now the Broncos must come down for that high in just a few day's to host a pissed of Chargers team. San Diego split with Denver last season as both teams won on the road. I don't expect this to be another Thursday night blowout. Take the points.

Ben Burns

UConn vs. East Carolina
Pick: Under

While the Pirates can score plenty of points, the same cannot be said of the Huskies. They’ve scored less than 20 points in five of their six games this season. Last time out, they managed a mere field goal. In their previous game, they tallied only 10 points.

In two road games, the Huskies are averaging just 8.5 points on a paltry 185 yards of offense.

Granted, they haven’t faced an offense like this one - but it should be noted that the Huskies are allowing only 14.5 points per road game, opposing teams managing only 286.5 yards of offense per road game.

The “under” is 5-1 the last six times that the Huskies were off a bye. I believe those stats have a solid shot at improving on Thursday night.

Dave Essler

Virginia Tech +3

We know this is a huge rivalry, and at this number we're getting 5+ points or more better than the opener, which was the opener for a reason. Miami is getting better, BUT, their strength, running Duke Johnson to set up the pass, plays right into the strength of the Hokies, which is stopping the run. Let's not forget this is a Hokie team that did beat Ohio State before their stock fell, probably taking ECU a bit lightly. The biggest problem I'd have with backing Miami is that they haven't won a road game yet. Lost at Nebraska, at G-Tech, and at Louisville. They allowed a fair amount of points to Cincinnati last week, too. In the end, if it comes down to coaching I would prefer to have Beamer over Al Golden, and if it comes down to QB play I'd rather have the Jr Michael Brewer over the Freshman Brad Kaaya. Looking at the QB stats for Kaaya, he threw two picks in each of their road losses, to only five TD's. Since he's simply not a running threat, I fully expect V-Tech to make him beat them by stacking the box. And I don't think he can. Seven of his nine picks this season have come on the opponents side of the field, and he's only completing 48% of his passes on third down. (Hence Miami may come out throwing, or they should). Brewer is far from someone I totally trust, as his interceptions can come in bunches, but, he didn't throw one in 45 attempts at Pittsburgh last week, and threw one against North Carolina. With that in mind, I expect Miami to do the same thing, which is to make Brewer beat them. I think he will. V-Tech's defense is just that much better than Miami's, IMO. Bottom line, again, until Miami wins a road game, I can't back them, and they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games, and actually 1-6 SU. And whoever is QB for Tech HAS to be better than Logan Thomas.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Pick: Detroit Pistons

Can't see the Philadelphia 76ers caring about this one, their final preseason games. They didn't play well in their last game, also on the road, losing 99-88 at Brooklyn. In fact, they haven't had a good preseason on a 1-4 run with little offense, scoring 77, 91, 95 and 88 points the last four. They shot 39% the last game, just 5-26 from long range. Detroit's offense is been playing well, with a 4-2 preseason record despite playing the last four games on the road. Andre Drummond had 19 points and 14 rebounds to help the Detroit Pistons beat the Atlanta Hawks 104-100 on Saturday night in an exhibition game. Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy has only one more preseason game in which to assess his centers and wingmen. "We haven't come anywhere near deciding on a lineup." Van Gundy said. "Nowhere near it." So grab the home team.

Marc Lawrence

Chargers at Broncos
Pick: Under

Edges - Broncos 1-4 UNDER on Thursdays; and 0-6 UNDER before the Patriots. Chargers: 1-5 UNDER on Thursdays; and 0-4 UNDER as dogs of more than 6 points. With both teams owning Top 10 ranked defenses, look for the UNDER in this series to win again for the 4th straight time tonight.

Ray Monohan

Connecticut vs. East Carolina
Play: Over 54.5

The talk about the ECU Pirates has died down. They are a good team but their league is just not going to elevate them enough. In three home games they have not scored less than 45 points so against a weak Connecticut team they just might go over all by their lonesome. The reason the number is relatively low is that they might have to. The Huskies are terrible on offense. With the off week to prepare they should have more jump to their attack.

Rob Vinciletti

Connecticut vs. East Carolina
Play: East Carolina -27.5

The Pirates should cover the 28 point spread here. Favorites of more than 21 to -31 have covered to the tune of 46-13 ats and ECU averages over 560 yards on offense compared to 254 for U.Conn. They have covered 10 of the last 14 at home and have a solid 5-1 record losing only at South Carolina. U.Con has one win and it was a struggle at home vs an average Stony Brook team. The Huskies are a weak 0-10 ats in weeks 5-9 and have failed to cover 9 of the last 11 on the road. Look for East Carolina to cover.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jesse Schule

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Calgary Flames -150

The Flames appeared to be well on their way to their fifth victory of the season before surrendering the game tying goal late in the third period in Tuesday's home game versus Tampa Bay. The Bolts went on to win that game in overtime, leaving Calgary to settle for just one point. They host the Carolina Hurricanes tonight, and anything less than two points would be a major disappointment.

The Canes are still without a win through their first five games of the season, and several of their star players are battling injuries. Brothers Jordan and Eric Staal are both on injured reserve, and neither will be available tonight. That's going to make it all the more difficult for Carolina to snap a five game losing streak at the Saddledome.

On a positive note, the Canes got leading scorer Jeff Skinner back, and he made his season debut in the loss to the Jets. It could take a few games for him to get back into top form though: "It was good to have him back, but we need Jeff Skinner, you know what I mean?" coach Bill Peters said. "People think you're going to parachute in the lineup and be a star, it's not the way it works. We need him to get assertive and play responsibly."

Calgary's newly acquired goaltender Jonas Hiller has been on top of his game. Hiller has allowed just two goals on 85 shots in consecutive wins over Chicago and Winnipeg. He should get back between the pipes after Kari Ramo got the call against Tampa.

Calgary has outscored Carolina 17-8 during a five game home win streak in this series, and they look to continue that success tonight.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Vancouver vs. St. Louis
Pick: Vancouver

The Vancouver Canucks are coming off a 6-3 loss at Dallas on Tuesday. Ryan Miller had a night to forget, allowing five goals on 13 shots before getting the hook early in the second period. Vancouver rallied to out-score the Stars 3-1 the rest of the way, and Radim Vrbata scored his fourth goal of the season. I think the Canucks will bounce back with a much better effort in St. Louis tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Twins - Vancouver's top line features a pair of former scoring champions in Daniel and Henrik Sedin, and they are playing their best hockey in years alongside Radim Vrbata who came over in the off-season from Phoenix. The trio have combined to score seven goals and 21 points so far this season.

2. Goaltending - The Canucks might opt to go with backup Eddie Lack, who went went 3-0-0 with a 0.97 GAA helping the Canucks sweep the season series last year. The Blues have already announced that their #2 netminder Jake Allen will start tonight. He's 1-1 with a 3.00 GAA in two previous starts versus Vancouver.

3. X-Factor - The Canucks should be in good shape if they can stay out of the penalty box, St. Louis is tied for last in the NHL with just six even strength goals.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Brandon Watson

Miami -2.5

Love the combination of Brad Kaaya and Duke Johnson in this one tonight. Virginia Tech decent against the run (29th nationally) but Johnson has at least 90 yards on the ground in each game this year, including going over the 100-yard plateau in three straight games. He's scored on the ground in six straight games as well. So far this year Miami has dropped three games, all of which were to teams better than they are (Louisville, Nebraska, Georgia Tech). I don't think Virginia Tech is better than Miami, even though the perception for the Hokies is that they love playing on Thursday nights. Miami, on the other hand, has won 17 times on ESPN Thursday night games. Good enough for me. Like the Hurricane defense to play well in this game tonight and get a turnover or two to be the difference.

Tom Barton

Virginia Tech vs Miami
Pick: Virginia Tech

There is the eye test and then there is history and V-tech fits into both here on this play. The Hokies despite a loss last week have looked much better as the season has gone on and they still have a shot at playing in the ACC title game. Virginia Tech lost a tough game last week on the road but hung in there the entire way and they have been hanging in their in their losses. Last week was by 5 before that by 3 and 7 for their 3 losses this year. What they have shown me the last few weeks though by beating North Carolina and Western Michigan is their defense is every bit as good as we hoped it would be. The Hokies are holding teams to just 20 points per game and Miami has only shown the ability to score against very bad teams. Now as far as history goes these teams have plenty to say V-Tech will win and win with ease. The Hokies won last year in Miami by 18 and have won 4 of the last 5. In fact Miami hasn't won in Blacksburg since 2005. I'll take the better team here with history on their side and points.

LT Profits

Miami-FL vs Virginia Tech
Pick: Over 49

This may seem like a big total for two statistically good defensive teams like the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies, but we expect a higher scoring game than some think. One reason is because these defenses can force turnovers and give their offenses good field position. Also, there is a glaring home vs. away split for the Hurricanes, as they are 0-3 on the road with their defense allowing 263.7 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry away from home. Granted the Hokies could not run in an ugly loss at Pittsburgh last week, but their top three running backs were out and Marshawn Williams should return tonight. Meanwhile the passing of Hokies QB Michael Brewer can always lead to points – for one team or the other! And Miami has the biggest scoring threat for either team in Duke Johnson. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four Miami games following a straight up win by more than 20 points.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

San Diego / Denver Under 52: Yes I am stubborn. I do know that 18 of 22 primetime games have gone over the total this year, but I just don't see this one following suit. The Bolts and broncos played 3 times last year and all three games put up 28 points or less and that was very much due to the gameplan of the Bolts. San Diego is beat up in the secondary and that makes it even more imperative for them to use the same ball control offense that they did last year, in order to keep the high powered Bronco offense off the field. Branden Oliver has been a breath of fresh air for the Chargers ground attack and he along with the short passing game of Rivers should work one again vs the Broncos. This game also features two defenses that are ranked in the top 6 in terms of points allowed. The Under is 14-4 in Chargers games when they face the AFC and 4-1-1 in their last 6 Thursday night games, while the Under is 4-1 in Denver's last 5 games on Thursday night. Lower 40's in this one.