King Creole
Browns / Seahawks Under 39
A low-scoring offense (Browns average only 16 ppg) takes a cross-country trip and faces a great low-scoring defense (SF allows only 16 ppg). The Browns looked good on defense last week too... allowing only 3 pts to the Seahawks.
0-6 O/U s'05: All non-div road dogs playing off a SU non-div home win in which they allowed 3 < pts.
Final score of that Brownie win was only 6-3. That's what I call LOW-scoring!
0-7 O/U s'86: All road teams playing off a SU win in which they scored only 6 teams playing off a SU home fav win BUT an ATS 'tie' (Clev).
You already KNOW what you're getting with the surprisng San Franciso 49ers (5-1 SU). A bruising physical team that emphasizes the run (131 rush YPG / 4.5 YPC) and plays great rush defense. With a week of rest behind them, the host Niners are active in the page 3 situation from this week's Totals Tipsheet which has gone 1-9 O/U.
They beat the Lions 2 weeks ago as a road doggie.
1-7 O/U s'01: All teams after their Bye Week playing off a SU road dog win that also went 'UNDER The TOTAL'.
With that last win, San Fran is on a 4-game SUATS winning streak.
1-9 O/U s'03: All non-conf home teams with a pontspread of 10 pts have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in GAME SIX or greater (SF) versus any AFC opponent (CLEV).
Joe Gavazzi
Denver +3
The Tim Tebow era has arrived. Trailing 15-0 with 5 minutes remaining, he rallied the Broncos to an 18-15 win. There is plenty of value in this line based on Detroit's hot start. Despite losing their last 2, they have still covered the line by a net 32 points this season. At this Thursday writing, Detroit QB Stafford (leg) is expected to start. But their most explosive runner, Best, is doubtful to make post. Favor the clear momentum of the Broncos at what remains a value price.
Dave Essler
Browns / 49ers Under 38.5
The Browns actually have one of the better defenses in the league, allowing a league best 53.3% completion rate, which of course the 49ers know, and San Francisco will do what they do, which is run the ball. I do expect SOME rust with the 49ers having had a bye week, so barring special teams fiasco's and/or turnovers in their own Red Zone(s) this game should just be a physical and low scoring game.
Sam Martin
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
While we're impressed with the Bengals start (and have even backed them a few times), we do have to point out that their four wins came against the Browns, Colts, Jaguars, and even their best victory came against the Bills when Buffalo was in a huge letdown spot after beating New England the previous week. Seattle has only played two home games this season, covering the spread in both games and have played very well in their last four overall. That includes two outright victories as underdogs against the Giants and Cardinals, and we look for an outright home win here! 5* Play on Seattle.
Hollywood Sports
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Cincinnati (4-2) will be without Cedric Benson who is serving his suspension this week -- and quarterback Andy Dalton could really use his best running back in this contest in the hostile environment in Seattle. Expect the rookie quarterback to struggle on the road -- and the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as a favorite. Seattle (2-4) looks to rebound after their 6-3 loss in Cleveland -- but they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than two touchdowns in their last game. The Seahawks look to get Tarvaris Jackson back at quarterback after a successful practice on Friday and he presents a significant upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. This offense should also be much better this week since running back MarShawn Lynch who practiced as well on Friday after missing last week's game. Seattle is tough at home as an underdog where they have covered 4 straight games as a home dog. Take Seattle plus the point(s).
EZWINNERS
Seattle Seahawks +2
Seattle is coming off of an ugly loss in Cleveland last week where the Seahawks offense could not get anything going with Charlie Whitehurst filling in for the injured Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback and starting running back Marshawn Lynch was a last minute scratch. Both T-Jack and Lynch will be back in the lineup this week and I like Seattle as a home underdog. The Seattle defense has been playing well, especially against the run and the Bengals will be with running back Cedric Benson who is suspended for this game. The Bengals are off to a nice start and have benefited from a weak schedule. Seattle is one of the toughest places to play and if the Seahawks shut down the run like I expect, Andy Dalton will be out of his comfort zone on 3rd on long. Qwest Field is one of the toughest venues to play and the Seahawks have covered the spread in five out of their last six home games. Take the points.
Scott Delaney
In a matchup of West Coast offenses, make note only one of them is actually working, and that's why I have no problem laying the points with the San Francisco 49ers today against the Cleveland Browns. Coach Jim Harbaugh has done a tremendous job with the Niners, as they're 5-1 and thriving under their first-year coach.
Today they welcome a somewhat rugged Browns team, but I don't think it has the wherewithal to hang with Frisco, neither offensively nor defensively. Granted, the 49ers rank 27th in yards per game (302.5), and the Browns rank 23rd (308.3), but San Francisco is off and racing this season, while Cleveland is 3-3.
The Browns have beaten the Colts, Dolphins and Seahawks. Not exactly an impressive trio of wins. The losses came against superior teams in the Bengals, Titans and Raiders.
Now they have to travel across the country and play in a raucous place, where the Niners will be celebrating for the first time with their home crowd, since knocking the Lions from the ranks of the unbeatens two weeks ago.
A week to prepare, fresh legs and ready to make a statement. Yeah, I'll lay the points with Frisco.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chuck O'Brien
The Cincinnati Bengals have the No. 2 defense in the National Football League, and they're fighting in the AFC North right now, with a 4-2 mark, tied with the Baltimore Ravens, just a half-game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers. And knowing the Steelers have their hands full at home against the visiting New England Patriots today, I think the Bengals will be motivated to win this one, while inching closer to first place in the division.
I honestly don't know how the Seattle Seahawks are going to score points today, as they have the second-worst offense in the league, barely gaining 260 yards per game overall. Yes, they upset an unassuming New York Giants in East Rutherford, New Jersey, but this team also just lost 6-3 at Cleveland.
Of the team's six games, it's failed to score more than 17 points on four occasions. It certainly didn't earn any favors from the schedule makers, as they've played the Niners, Steelers and Falcons already, and have the Bengals today, then the Cowboys and Ravens on deck.
I know this looks like one of those games where, on paper, the Bengals will dominate with a sizable advantage, but could get upset and shocked by a team like the Seahawks, but I'm not buying into the tactical scare by the oddsmakers and falling for any trap. The Bengals are in off a bye week, and will be ready for this one.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the New England Patriots over the Pittsburgh Steelers from Heinz Field.
After starting the season at 2-2, Mike Tomlin's team is on a three-game win streak as they play host to the Patriots this afternoon. A closer look at the Steelers winning streak shows wins over the Titans, Jaguars, and Cardinals. None of those three teams are anywhere near the talent level New England brings to the dance today.
The Patriots had off last week, and they enter play today with a 4-2 spread mark this season when listed as the chalk. Since 2005, the Pats are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread versus the Steelers, and the only loss in that span occured when Tom Brady was sidelined with an injury.
Dick LeBeau has yet to figure out a way to stop # 12, and I doubt seriously that this Sunday will be any different.
No issue laying a few small points with the visitor today, as New England ends the Pittsburgh three-game winning streak.
Take the Patriots.
4♦ NEW ENGLAND
Derek Mancini
I'm laying it with the Giants over the hapless Dolphins. Some of you may be asking when the bleeding stops for Miami? Well not this week, not against a Giants team off a bye, playing at home, and having scored 27 or more points in winning four of their last five (3-1-1 ATS). The Dolphins will simply not be able to keep up.
Why do I expect a big game from the G-men today? Well besides the fact they're off their bye, there will also be no Vontae Davis to help contain a very potent NY recieving corps. We all know about Nicks, but Manningham, Cruz and Ballard are all very capable. Without their premier corner on the field, and with little or no pass rush to speak of, Manning will sit back and pick apart this Miami secondary all game long.
Bottom line, Miami's 1-9-1 record ATS over their last 11 games is no fluke. They're as terrible as you think they are, and the fact their coach recently sold his house should tell you a lot about his expectations for the season. Coach Sparano has lost the lockeroom and the Dolphins season along with it. Giants roll!
3♦ NY GIANTS
As much as it might be against your intuition, betting the Rams here is the right move. There's a couple factors working against the Saints, but none bigger than the letdown factor. Following their absolute trouncing of the Colts last week, would it really surprise you to see them take the lowly Rams lightly?
Saints season is littered with letdowns following big offensive games, and if you don't believe me, check out how poorly their offense played against the Jags following the 40 points they dropped on Houston in Week 3. Or perhaps their piss-poor effort against the Bucs following the 30 points they dropped on Carolina in Week 5. Same goes here.
Could it get any worse for St. Louis with Feeley starting? Fact is the Sam Bradford injury has already been factored into the line, so basing your decision to fade the Rams on Feeley is a mistake. Is he terrible? Yes, but not bad enough that the oddsmakers don't have the Rams priced at below the key number of 14 (in most places).
Bottom line is you can expect heavy doses of Steven Jackson today as the Rams do everything in their power to keep Brees off the field. They'll slow the game down, and factoring in an expected letdown by the Saints, I expect this game to be closer than anticipated. Do the Saints win SU? Of course, but covering the bloated number is entirely different story. Take St. Louis plus the points over New Orleans Sunday.
1♦ ST. LOUIS
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on Seattle to kick the crap out of Cincinnati.
I don't know if you watched this terrible game or not, but I couldn't suffer watching too much of Seattle's 6-3 loss to Cleveland last week without dry-heaving. If you like defense I guess it was good, but usually when two teams go 60 minutes without punching it in, you're either dealing with two great defenses or two bad offenses.
I think in our case we were dealing with both... and it's that Seattle defense and playing at home which will be the difference today. Cincy comes off a bye week but they won't have the services of two of their better players... RB Cedric Benson and LB Ray Maualuga.
Benson is serving a suspension this week from stuff he did in Texas but he still has to sit out one game. Seattle's run defense ranks in the top 5 and that doesn't bode well for backup RB Bernard Scott.
Scott is a great RB, but his mathup isn't great, forcing Cincy to throw more than they want today. I expect Cincy to come out a little flat today and the home of the 12th man will have a major impact.
5♦ SEATTLE
Chris Jordan
Seems to me that when Big Ben Roethlisberger is pressed into competition, he comes up, well, big. And today might appear like the biggest matchup for the defending AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers, but in reality, I think Roethlisberger is going to have one of his best days of the season when taking on the visiting New England Patriots, who have the worst defense in the National Football League.
Dead last, the Patriots' defense is allowing nearly 425 yards of offense to opponents; New England also ranks dead last in the league with its pass defense. So when you have a guy like Rashard Mendenhall, who is averaging nearly 4 yards per carry to balance a passing game, and a guy like Roethlisberger who can turn the game vertical when need be, it makes for a potentially productive game for a team like the Steelers.
With the Baltimore Ravens losing last Monday, to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Steelers suddenly have a chance to nudge their lead in the AFC North a little bit further, as they're 5-2 on the year, while the Ravens and Bengals are both 4-2.
At Heinz Field, the Steelers have won six in a row, and nine of 10, while they've given up 10 points a game at there this season, the fewest at home in the league.
So while you might be impressed with all the numbers New England quarterback Tom Brady has posted, and his historic numbers against the Steelers, keep in mind he's always had a rough-and-tumble defense to depend on, to stifle opponents and make things hard for them. But this year, his defense is going to make things hard on him, as I don't see it stopping the Steelers at all.
Take the home underdog in this one, as the Steelers aim for an outright win.
5♦ PITTSBURGH
OC DOOLEY
Browns +9
This is actually personal revenge on the “free” pick report as one week ago “over” the total at Cleveland missed badly in what turned out to be a 6-3 final score. But that has opened the door to a solid 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-9 since 1983) which plays ON underdogs like Cleveland after an extremely low scoring contest where 10-or-less points were put on the scoreboard. It is easy to see why San Francisco has been installed as a prohibitive favorite since they are off to an excellent start, but the law of averages are starting to catch up to the 49ers who have NOT put together a five-game winning streak in more than a solid DECADE. In addition San Francisco the last five times they have taken the field have NOT won by more than a 6-point margin. For those following the Browns veteran defensive guru Dick Jauron has helped fashion the team into a Top 10 ranked stop-unit which is about to get better. Today DEFENSIVE LEADER Scott Fujita (linebacker) returns after missing last Sunday due to a concussion. I will admit that Browns lead rusher Peyton Hillis (hamstring) most likely will be sidelined again but that has just helped inflate this particular price tag. In a situation rarely seen this will be the second time in 3 weeks that Cleveland has flown out to the WEST COAST which brings with it a strange form of familiarity