Larry Ness
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
Pick: Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins ‘courted’ Jim Harbaugh last year and when he said no, the team returned to current head coach, Tony Sparano. Sparano was publically embarrassed and few thought he’d be around much longer. Those feelings have only intensified in 2011, as the Dolphins enter Week 8 as one of just three remaining winless teams in the NFL. The Colts are 0-7, while the Dolphins join the Rams at 0-6. However, while the Colts are minus-115 in point-differential and the Rams come in at minus-116, the Dolphins have been much more respectable in their losses, owning a point-differential of a much more reasonable minus-56. The Giants sit at 4-2 in the NFC East and have to realize that with Washington likely not a contender (after some early flashes) plus the 3-3 Cowboys playing at the 2-4 Eagles Sunday night, things could look pretty good for them come Monday. If the Giants win here to get to 5-2, they would be in a good position with the Cowboys being no better than 4-3 and the possibility looming (with a Philly win), of both the Cowboys and the Eagles being 3-4 (two games back of the Giants, almost halfway through the season). Of course, the Giants can’t control the Sunday night outcome, so it’s 100 percent attention to the Dolphins, despite the team's winless record. Miami has to be a little shook after letting the Broncos off the hook last Sunday. Sparano went for a two-point conversion in an effort to go up 14-0 in the early 4th quarter (instead of 13-0), even though the Tebow-led Broncos had done NOTHING all game. When the Dolphins stalled later in the 4th quarter, a FG only put them up 15-0 (instead of 16-0). The Broncos then finally scored a TD with 2:44 left and then Denver recovered the onside kick, when a Miami player clearly had it in his hands. You all know how it turned out, as Matt Prater's 52-yard FG in overtime gave the Broncos an 18-15 victory. Miami became the first team since at least 1983 to blow a lead of more than 14 points with under three minutes remaining. It also marked he Dolphins’ NINTH straight loss, the longest active losing streak in the NFL. "At this point in time, with where we are, you find out about the real mettle of the guys in that locker room," said Sparano, who was caught on camera telling the referees that he could be fired during his team’s collapse against the Broncos. However, before everyone gives up on Miami's chances, let me remind all that the Seahawks ‘limped’ into New Jersey back in Week 5 and won, 36-25. Miami QB Matt Moore is no worse than Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks ran for 145 yards (5.0 YPC) on New York. The Giants’ rush D ranks 26th this year, allowing 127.7 YPG (4.5 YPC) while the pass D is no better than middle-of-the-pack. RB Daniel Thomas has shown flashes for Miami, gaining 107 yards vs Houston and 95 vs Cleveland plus one of these days, Reggie Bush will have a breakout game. Why not here vs the Giants, who have been very vulnerable as a home favorite, going 5-11-1 ATS since the beginning of 2009. The Dolphins entered this season on a terrific 15-5 ATS run as road underdogs the previous three years. I realize that they are 0-2 ATS in that role this year but I just don’t trust the Giants when laying points at home. Take the points.
Spartan
New England -3
Lets see if we can knock ourselves down another free winner here guys. Last week I went with the Kansas City Chiefs and that was certainly one of those nice, no drama winners for us. On the Pregame forum I provided a free selection in college on Kansas State and that also cashed in without any ulcers getting started. This week I am going to the NFL and with one of the marquee games no less. This sunday I'm suggesting a wager on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots as they venture into Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers. Brady just continues to find ways to get the job done, just ask the Cowboys who pretty much gave it their best shot against them in New England and still departed town with a loss. This won't be a real popular statement with many but I personally feel that this years edition of the Steelers are a little overrated. Record is okay but take a moment to review just who those victories actually came against and it takes a little of the shine off it. Brady has enjoyed solid success in the past going up against Pittsburgh, I say his latest flight home will also be a celebratory one. It's a solid play here in my opinion laying the short number with New England.
James Patrick Sports
Cowboys vs. Eagles
One of the NFL’s nastiest rivalries resumes Sunday night in Philadelphia when the hated Cowboys roll into town. Dallas has won four of the past five meetings (SU and ATS) with Philly, but this game could come down to whether the Cowboys running game can keep it going against a suspect Eagles run defense. The Dallas defense has certainly improved under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan this year. The Cowboys lead the NFL in rushing defense (69.7 YPG) and have forced (12) turnovers in six games. On defense, the Eagles could get a nice boost if DE Trent Cole returns to the field. Cole, who has five sacks in eight career meetings with Dallas, has missed the past two games with a calf injury, but has resumed practicing this week. The passing defense ranks 10th in the league (214 YPG) and has allowed just one opponent to throw for (250) yards this year (49ers 278). This Division rivalry is as good as it gets and we look for the defenses to set the tone in the "City of Brotherly Love ". The Under is (13-3) in Eagles last (16) games following a bye week with the Cowboys (13-4-2) Under the Total in their last (19) games following a bye week. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday Night Football complimentary selection is on Dallas - Philadelphia Under the Total.
Jack Clayton
Redskins vs Bills
Pick: Over
A slick field in Toronto, and the artificial carpet helps offenses. The Washington defense is banged up and has slipped badly the last two games. Buffalo is deadly offensively and the Over is 7-0 in the Bills last 7 games. Play this one over the total.
Jimmy Moore
New England @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5
Have to like the Steelers here as a home underdog. They have a very strong defense and they have revenge from a loss to the Patriots last season. New England is coming off of the bye week which has been a problem for most teams this season. Look for the tough Steelers Defense to make this a very close game and get the cover for Pittsburgh.
Jim Feist
New Orleans Saints vs St. Louis Rams
Pick: St. Louis Rams
The Saints (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) were champs two years ago and have upgraded the offensive backfield. They have fast wideouts and a wide-open spread offense, led by QB Drew Brees (18 TDs, 8 INTs) and a revamped backfield that adds Darren Sproles and rookie first round pick RB Mark Ingram (Note : Ingram is out for today's game). This passing offense is No. 2 in the NFL with 346 yards per game. WR Marques Colston is back from a broken collarbone. Brees completed 31 of 35 passes for 325 yards and five touchdowns, and the Saints whipped the Colts 62-7 Sunday night with an edge in yards 557-252. The offense is second in the NFL with 460 yards per game, 34 points; the defense is 15th in yards allowed (348 pg), 23 points per game. New Orleans had a 26-20 loss at Tampa Bay, turning it over 4 times (3 picks by Brees) despite 453 yards of offense. The Saints are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rams (0-6 SU/ATS) have a young team led by QB Sam Bradford (3 TDs, 2 INTs) that has been a mess. Bradford has been nursing a bad ankle and didn’t play Sunday, so QB A.J. Feeley (0 TDs, 1 INT) took his lumps against Dallas, a 34-7 defeat. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels brought in the spread attack he ran in Denver and New England. The Rams came off their bye weekand lost 24-3 at Green Bay getting 424 yards but just 3 points. They actually matched the high powered Green Bay offense pretty evenly in yardage. It was mistakes in the redzone that led to their loss. Steven Jackson got back to full speed: He and Cadillac Williams combined for 120 yards rushing on 22 carries. They also caught six passes for 39 yards. QB Aaron Rodgers passed for 234 yards and three TDs….in the first half. Lots of points here for the Rams to be getting. The Saints have already shown they are human on the road and laying this much is likely too many. The Rams can pile up the yardage, if they can just keep the redzone mistakes down they will cover today's spread.
BOB BALFE
Texans -9.5 over Jaguars
The Jaguars looked great Monday Night, but they are not at home and they are not facing a weak offense like the Ravens. Jacksonville has a decent defense, but its not as good as it looked Monday against a Ravens Offense that looked lost. The Jaguars are on a short week and its going to be tough to go into Houston and match their point total. The Jaguars simply can’t score. Houston should win big. Take the Texans.
John Ryan
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Ottawa Senators
5* graded play on Ottawa as they host Toronto set to start at 7:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Ottawa will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 52-24 ATS for 68.4% winners since 2005. Play against any team against the money line and is an extremely tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season. Simply eliminating the fact that the team must be playing a winning record team produces results that have made 68.6 units per one unit wagered since 2005 for a 257-210 record. Toronto is just 11-30 against the money line (-19.8 Units) after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Ottawa is 7-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) off a road win by 1 goal over the last 2 seasons. Ottawa has won five straight games and are coming an impressive road win at the Rangers 5-4 and were installed as +145 dogs. Take Ottawa.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers
Too many points to lay with the 49ers coming out of a bye week against a Cleveland team with a top 10 scoring defense and are top 4 in total defense. San Francisco is just one point away from 6-0 ATS, but this is the first time all year they've been laying more than one score. Underdogs coming off a game where 10 or less total points were scored are 30-9 ATS since 1983.
Play on: Cleveland
Michael Alexander
Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +3
NFL teams who start the season 4-0 or better and then immediately lose back-to-back games (DETROIT) are just 4-10 ATS the following game.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS as road favorites off back-to-back SU losses and 2-13 SU and ATS versus an AFC West opponent who is off a SU win.
DENVER is 9-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points versus an opponent who is off a SU favorite loss.
Steve Merril
Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Cleveland Browns +9
San Francisco had their bye last week, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time. The 49ers were full of confidence and had a ton of momentum as they had won four consecutive games since losing at home in overtime to the Cowboys. San Francisco won road games at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Detroit all as road underdogs and they also waxed Tampa Bay as a small home favorite over that stretch. Now off their week of rest, the 49ers find themselves laying a whopping 9 points. That big pointspread is a gigantic impost for them to overcome, especially since San Francisco hasn’t been this big of a favorite since 2009, a stretch of 24 games. Cleveland comes into this game at 3-3, and while they’ve been less impressive than their .500 record indicates, they present some good value in this game. The Browns’ defense has played well as they are ranked 9th in the league allowing only 20 points per game and ranked 4th in the league in yards allowed at 291 per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s offense only averages 303 yards of total offense per game which makes their 27.8 points scored per game look a bit phony. The 49ers are also among the league’s worst in 3rd down conversions at 31% which plays into the Browns’ favor as they are only allowing opponents to convert on 34% of their 3rd down attempts this season. The 49ers’ defense is allowing just 16.2 points per game. They have been tough against the run (75 yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush), but this will not really come into play as the Browns pass the ball over 60% of the time. San Francisco is allowing opponents to throw for 261 yards per game and Browns QB Colt McCoy should have success against the 49ers’ secondary. In games against decent passing offenses, the 49ers have allowed 17, 27, 23, and 19 points this season. Considering San Fran’s offense has scored 25 points or less in five of their seven games, 9 points looks too high of a number for them to cover. The 49ers do not deserve to be laying this many points so we’ll take the points as we see plenty of value on the road underdog.
David Chan
St. Louis Blues @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: Edmonton Oilers
I bet value where I see it and expect the Oilers to snuff out the Blues on Sunday night.
St. Louis is 5-5-0 while Edmonton has gotten out to a quick start and is 6-2-2.
The Oilers have been riding strong defensive play and are coming off a commanding 3-1 win over Colorado on Friday.
Nikolai Khabibulin will be in net tonight for the home side; he's started three games of the win streak, posting an insane 1.00 GAA.
The Oilers have given up a league-low 14-goals and lead the league with 128 blocked shots.
St. Louis is coming off a 3-1 loss to Calgary on Friday.
Goaltender Brian Elliot is expected back between the pipes for the Blues; he went 2-3-0 with a 3.73 GAA vs. Edmonton last season.
This is the final game of a four game trip for the Blues and I expect the red-hot Oilers to take advantage of this situation; great line value on the home side!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Saints/Rams Under 48
A trend that has never lost and a strong super system that is undefeated this season are in play here. Consider that the Rams are 8-0 under all-time under coach Spagnuolo when matchup up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). We've seen just 34.9 total points scored in these games. The St. Louis offense is struggling, which bodes well for this play, and the defense has played well enough to keep the Rams under the number in each of their last 3 games. In addition, plays under on any team when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (New Orleans in this case) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9, are 46-17 since 1983. We have only seen an average of 41 total points scored in this situation the last 28 seasons. It's also worth noting that this system is 2-0 this season. Bet the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis +104 over EDMONTON
The Oilers are definitely an improved team and they’re also an exciting team with a promising future. However, they’re stock is a little too high right now and so are they. Furthermore, you can’t keep defying the laws of the universe by winning games that they had no right doing so. Edmonton has won three straight but were completely dominated in all three games by Vancouver, Washington and Colorado. They picked up six out of six points when they should have picked up none. Nikolai Khabibulin is in a zone right now but it cannot last because out of let’s say 60 goaltenders, his ranking would be in the 55th to 60th range. So, after surviving a minor miracle with three onslaughts by the opposition and picking up three undeserving wins, the St. Louis Blues come in with a .500 record but deserving much better. Rarely have the Blues been outplayed this season. They’ve had some bad fortune but they’ve also won three of its last four with wins over both Philadelphia and Vancouver. The Blues conclude a four-game trip here and so chances are you’re going to get another great effort out of them. Also, the Oilers embark on a six-game trip after this one and we often catch teams flat on the final home game before a long trip. This one sets up beautifully for the Blue Notes and gives us a great opportunity to take advantage of a misconception by the marketplace. Play: St. Louis +104 (Risking 3 units).
COLORADO +111 over Los Angeles
Four teams went to Europe to start the season. The Ducks, Sabres, Rangers and Kings. The Ducks, Sabres and Rangers have all suffered the effects of that trip and it’s no coincidence. The Kings have yet to pay the price with their 6-2-1-1 record but they’re not immune. Los Angeles will pay its third game in four days, all on the road, and the tail end of back-to-backs after an OT loss in Phoenix last night. The Avalanche have yet to win on home ice but we’re absolutely dominating in their last home game against Edmonton in which they deserved a better fate. This is about as good a situational bet as you’ll see, as the Av’s couldn’t have handpicked a better time to face the Kings. Play: Colorado +111 (Risking 3 units).
Doug Upstone
Jacksonville / Houston OVER
It is an AFC South showdown in Houston with Jacksonville visiting the Texans. It might be looking at the total since home teams like Texas when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, after allowing three points or less in the first half of their last game, against opponent after scoring 14 points or less in their last outing are 25-6 OVER since 2006.