Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 30

Marc Lawrence

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Washington Redskins

The Rogers Centre in Toronto is the site for this non-conference affair making the problem two-fold for the well-rested Bills. We should probably say too well-rested as teams coming off Bye Weeks this season are 3-9 SU and 4-7-1 ATS as the players now must be given extended rest during the Bye as mandated by the new NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. This has certainly had an adverse affect on teams – as has this ‘home’ game for Buffalo. The Bills are 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their three ventures north of the border. And despite a 12-3-2 ATS record versus the NFC East, look for the home field disadvantage to come into play this afternoon as the favorite is 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in Buffalo games this season. Toss in Washington’s 8-4-1 ATS log as a dog of 7 or less points versus the AFC East and HC Mike Shanahan’s 7-1-1 ATS log away as a dog off two losses exact and you can see why we’re leaning to the dog with 85 YPG the better defense. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Bryan Power

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants
PICK: New York Giants -10

Play on NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Coming off a bye, I can't see the Giants taking the Dolphins lightly, particularly due to the fact they have already failed as big home favorites earlier in the year in a turnover-filled loss to Seattle. Head coach Tom Coughlin has gone 21-8 ATS in the month of October w/ the G-Men. The New York offense has been firing on all cylinders of late, scoring 25 or more points in every game since the Week 1 loss to Washington, while the same can certainly not be said about Miami. Miami has failed to score more than 16 pts in any of their previous five games and could be very deflated coming off a brutal home loss to Tim Tebow and Denver. The Fins blew a 15 pt lead with just over three minutes remaining in that one to fall to 0-6 on the season and they are playing for a lame duck head coach right now in Tony Sparano, who had to endure owner Stephen Ross unsuccessfully court Jim Harbaugh in the offseason and now watch on as rumors abound about Bill Cowher. Miami has covered just one game this season and that was by 1 pt at Cleveland back in Week 3. They are 0-6 ATS after scoring 17 pts or less in back to back games L2 seasons. Giants win big on Sunday.

Stephen Nover

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13

There are lots of quarterbacks enjoying huge years in the NFL.

Kevin Kolb isn't one of them. If the Cardinals had any kind of decent backup they would seriously consider benching Kolb. But they don't and the Cardinals' putrid offense now moves on to Baltimore minus injured running back Beanie Wells, their best runner.

They encounter a very angry and embarrassed Ravens squad flush off playing their worst game not only of the season, but in the John Harbaugh era, a 12-7 humiliating Monday night loss to lowly Jacksonville.

The Cardinals also encounter the NFL's top defense. Baltimore ranks No. 1 in fewest points allowed at 13.8 per game and in total yards yielding just 272.7 per game.

Arizona has lost five in a row, failing to cover in its past four games. The Cardinals are a notoriously bad road club having won once in their past 12 away matchups. They are 3-9 ATS during this span.

The Ravens are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season having defeated the Steelers, Jets and Texans by a combined margin of 98-38. All three of those teams are above .500 and far superior to Arizona.

Joe Flacco is taking a lot of justified heat for his miserable performance against Jacksonville. Flacco has a strong history, though, of playing much better at M&T Bank Stadium. He can take advantage of a youthful and banged-up Cardinals secondary that ranks 28th in pass defense and surrenders big plays every game.

Kolb is lucky he hasn't played on national television because he's been a huge disappointment. Missing training camp due to the lockout no longer is a valid excuse for Kolb. This is Week 8. He had two weeks to prepare against the Steelers this past Sunday and still was horrible. In his last four games, Kolb has a 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's been sacked 13 times in this time frame.

Wells finally was having his breakout year until sustaining his annual injury. Keep in mind the Cardinals lost Ryan Williams before the season. Most likely, he would have been the Cardinals' top backup runner if not the starter.

Yes, the high pointspread accounts for the imbalance between these two teams. Normally I might stay away from the Ravens in an easy matchup the week before playing the Steelers the following Sunday. But now there are special circumstances.

The Ravens have something to prove after their brutal Monday night performance. Ray Lewis and Co. are very intimidating at home. The Cardinals are in disarray with a befuddled quarterback, no reliable running back, a bad defense and a history of quitting when playing at tough road venues.

This is a kill game for the Ravens. They had a three-game winning and covering streak snapped by the Jaguars. If Baltimore didn't play so poorly on Monday this line would be even higher.

The Ravens want to build up their momentum again to be in peak shape - physically and mentally - for the Steelers. The Cardinals are the perfect road patsy for them.

BIG AL

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3.5

Last week, Christian Ponder & Co. played a great game against the Super Bowl Champion Packers, but fell short in a 33-27 loss as a 10-point underdog. But off that pointspread win, I look for Minnesota to continue to play well, as it falls into a super 100% ATS system of mine. It's cashed 12 straight times since 1980, and what we want to do is play on underdogs of less than 7 points who covered the spread (but lost straight-up) as a double-digit home underdog the previous week. Also, teams off back to back games in which they surrendered more than 24 points, are a solid 44-19 ATS vs. foes off a win by more than 7 points. With Carolina in off a double-digit victory over the Redskins, and Minny in off 33-27 and 39-10 losses to Green Bay and the Chicago Bears, we'll jump on Leslie Frazier's men here. Take the points.

Carlo Campanella

San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers -3

San Francisco is 5-1 and at the top of the worst division in football, as the rest of the NFC West, Arizona, St. Louis and Seattle all combining for just 3 victories. Every win now secures the Niners a Playoff birth and they won't let down at home against a struggling offense like Cleveland. The Browns are averaging just 16.2 points per game while only breaking the 17 point barrier once this season. That's a perfect opponent for this San Francisco defense to dominate, as they've now held their last 4 foes to 3, 8, 19 and 23 points. Even better, the Niners have held 5 of their first 6 opponents to 86 rushing yards or less, with only The Eagles and QB Vick rushing for 108 yards. That will force Browns QB McCoy to move the ball knowing that his Browns are already 0-4 ATS this season when they rush for less than 99 yards!

Wunderdog Sports

Arizona Cardinals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Arizona Cardinals +12

The Baltimore Ravens looked about as bad as a team could look on Monday Night against Jacksonville. The offense did not generate a single first down the entire first half and the Ravens subsequently went down to a 1-5 team without much of a fight as a double-digit favorite. This game will mark just the fourth time in 22 years that a team lost as a double-digit favorite on the road, and has come back favored by double digits at home. It's too much. The first three have gone just 1-2. Arizona has had some problems of their own at 1-5 on the season of course. There is bad news with both of these teams, which historically has put the underdog here in a great spot. We also have the public ignoring the Ravens Monday Night debacle as they are coming right back with them at over 70% strong, expecting a fired up team to take out their frustrations on a helpless opponent. But, this line is inflated. Teams from Week 8 on that have just one win on the season are 77-49 ATS as a road dog. If they are big dogs getting more than a TD, that mark moves to 47-29 ATS. The Cardinals have also relished in this role in recent games as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a dog of greater than +10.5. Arizona has posted a 14-4 ATS mark in their last 18 games vs. great defensive teams (those allowing 14 or fewer points per game) and 34-14 ATS vs. teams that outscore their competitors by 6+ points per game (including 11-3 ATS under Ken Wisenhunt). The beautiful girl gets the dance at the party, while the ugly dog gets the money in the NFL. Take Arizona in this one.

Nelly

Detroit - over Denver

Tebow mania may be here to stay after an incredible win in comeback fashion last week. While the finish was remarkable it required a great deal of luck and Tebow had horrendous numbers for the first 55 minutes of the game against a winless team. Denver's defense also allows nearly 26 points per game which could be the perfect remedy for the Lions coming off back-to-back losses. Matthew Stafford's health is of primary concern and the offense also struggled without Jahvid Best but Stafford looks to be a 'go' and Detroit is better suited to focus on the passing game anyhow. While both Detroit losses came at home they also came against quality teams in close games that could have gone either way. Denver has been a horrible ATS team at home in recent seasons going 13-29 ATS since 2006 and while support will be there for the Broncos, the gap between these teams is much more significant than the spread will suggest.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

HOUSTON -9.5 over Jacksonville: When most people think about the Texas, they think about Offense, but this team is not all about their offense, but a defense that currently ranks 8th in the league, allowing 302.9 ypg and 5th in points allowed (18.7 ppg). This will be Blaine Gabbert's 4th game in a row vs a top 10 defense and has not not fared well so far, hitting just 48% of his passes and he has compiled just a 69.4 QB rating. His numbers are better that that of Luke McCown, but he does not have good enough numbers to think that he can put up enough points to stay close to Houston here. The Houston pass defense ranks 8th (230 ypg), while their rush defense ranks 7th, allowing just 99 ypg, so it will be tough for the leagues worst offense to move the ball either way. Now on the other side, the Houston offense has been one of the best this year and they are even better now that the appear to be fully healthy. Houston comes in ranked 7th overall 400.6 ypg), 5th in rushing offense (139 ypg) and 7th in scoring (26 ppg). Arian Foster is beginning to crank it up after his awesome performance last week, while Matt Schaub hes been very efficient, compiling a 96.8 QB rating. The Jax defense has been tough this year (6th overall), but having a short week to prepare for all the weapons Houston has is not a good thing and I feel they will struggle here. An offense that has used 6 different OL's this year, will just not be able to put enough points on the board to keep this one close. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against any team off a MNF game if they scored 13 points and are now on the road. This system is 27-12-1 since 1997.

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

New Orleans/ St Louis Over 48: Boy what a night the Saints had on Sunday as they became just the 3rd team ever to put 60+ points on the board with 200 yards rushing and 300 yards passing and I expect them have good success vs this St Louis defense this week. St Louis defense is 29th overall, allowing 410 ypg and they are 31st in points allowed at 28.5 ppg. Those are not good numbers when you are facing this powerful Saints offense that is 2nd in yards (467 ypg) and 1st in points (34.1 ppg), The trickiest part of tis play is that I will need a Rams offense that has averaged just 9.3 ppg on on the year to put up some points here. It won't be easy as the Saints do have a good defense, but I also expect New Orleans to be so far ahead that in the 2nd half this Rams offense should be going up against a lot of Saints backups on defense and that should give us enough late points to get a comfortable over play. The OU is 25-9-1 when the Saints are off an ATS win and 20-6 when the Rams are at home vs a winning team. I look for about 55 points in this one. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the over when the road team covered by 30 or more points last week. This has gone 32-14 since 1989. (1-1 this year).

3 UNIT PLAYS

Minnesota/ Carolina Under 46.5: Last week Christian Ponder gave a spark to this Minnesota offense, but they were more or less force to throw tha ball last week in oreder to keep up with all the scoring that the Pack did. Remember that this is a team with Adrian Petersen on on it and teams have found it much easier to run vs the Panthers defense than throw vs it. The panthers pass defense ranks a solid 12th in the league, allowing just 225 ypg, but they come in 29th vs the run allowing 133.4 ypg and they are 26th in ypa allowing 4.7. The Vikings will look to run more here, so they can keep the ball away from this strong Carolina offense, and that will eat a lot of clock. The Panther offense is strong and they come in ranked 5th overall (416 ypg), but they are just 14th in scoring at 23.7 ppg. One of the most telling stats about what a team really does with the ball and yards they make is yards per point and Carolina rankes 23rd in that department with a 17.5 ypp mark, so they may get their yards, but they can bog down in the scoring zone. These teams both have trouble in the redzone as they both convert on just 50% of their chances. Sure their is some bad defense in this game, but I do see a game with more running and FG's than passing and TD's. Look for right around 40 points here.

New England/ Pittsburgh Over 52: I have results of games dating back to 1989 and the Steelers have not been involved in a regular season game with an OU line this high in that time frame. The Patriots are off a bye week so they have had some time to get ready for this tough Pittsburgh defense. New England had a rough offensive showing in their last game vs the Cowboys, but if you've learned anything from this team over the years, its that they just don't have two bad offensive games in a row. The Pats have averaged 30.8 ppg and 474 ypg so far this year and they have hit 30+ points in all but 1 of their games. Offense has never been an issue for this team, but their defense has been trully bad. The Pats are dead last in total defense 432 ypg) and dead last in yards per play (6.6), meaning teams don't use long time consuming drives to score on them. last week this Pitt defense allowed an average Arizona passing game to throw for 257 yards on them, so what will Brady do to them today. The Pitt offense has been good this year, ranking 9th overall (383 ypg) and 9th in passing (265 ypg). This pitt team will put up some points vs this bad Pats defense. Both offense come in in the top 8 in yards per play as New England averages 6.9 ypp, while Pitt averages 6.0 ypg. A lot of big plays and quick scores can be expected in this one as these teams approach 60 points. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 17-4 in the Pats last 21 as a favorite and 7-2 in Pitt's last 9 vs the AFC East, plus 7 of the last 8 in this series has gone Over the total.

2 UNIT PLAY

BALTIMORE -12.5 over Arizona: What a bad game the Ravens played on MNF, but they should bounce back in a big way this week. Prior to last weeks game the Ravens had put up 33 ppg, but they were stymied by a tough Jags defense. That is one the Cards don't have is a tough defense. Arizona Checks in at 26th overall (388.3 ypg) and 28th vs the pass (274 ypg), plus they do allow 25.5 ppg (28th). the Cards are middle of the pack in total offense, but they can't score, putting up just 19.3 ppg, including just 13.7 ppg on the road and a measly 10 ppg when playing on the fake stuff. The raven's have played awesome at home averaging 32.7 ppg and 351 ypg, while allowing just 12.7 ppg and 251 ypg in the friendly confines this year. That's right they have outscored their opponents by 20 ppg at home and that's just about where i see this one ending up. A 3 TD win by the Ravens here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Indianapolis +9 over TENNESSEE: Ok, sometime pride has to take over. The Colts are winless on the year and are off a 55 point loss to the Saints. The Titans are off a bad loss themselves, but the Colts were embarrassed on National TV and I feel that hurts them a bit more and will motivate them even more to have a good game and try for thier first win of the year. I also feel that 9 points is too much for a team that is off a 34 point loss to lay over another NFL team. Titans by a FG here.

Buffalo/Washington Under 45.5: John Beck is an upgrade over Grossman, but he is missing other key parts to this offense as a couple of lineen are out, along with their #1 RB, #1 WR and # 2 TE, so how will this team score? Before all the injuries, the skins were just 24th in scoring, averaging 19.3 ppg. Granted they will not be facing a tough defense, but it will be still hard for this team to generate much. The Washington defense has been solid this year and they will need to look to it if they expect to win this game. The Bills are 4th in the league in rushing and that is their primary attack as teams have figured out their passing game of late, while the Skins will also look to run the ball to take the pressure off the young Beck. All that running will just eat a lot of clock and I just can't see more than 40 points in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

SEATTLE +125 over Cincinnati

Julius Caesar once said that, “Experience is teacher of all things.” The young Bengals may learn something about that here. No matter what the Seahawks’ record may be, teams visiting Seattle quickly find out that things don’t come easy at Qwest Field. The Seachickens have covered five of their past six here and their two games at home this season have been decided by three points or less. Seattle plays its first home game in a month and under similar conditions last week the Saints whacked the Colts by 55. Of course Seattle isn’t New Orleans but the home/road discrepancy of the Seahawks has always been the biggest in the league. Seattle has been outstanding against the run, not allowing a 100-yard rusher yet and that means Andy Dalton will be forced to the air with Cedric Benson out. The Bengals are a poor favorite at home and are rarely favored on the road and while its story has been great, it isn’t ready to take on this role as road chalk just yet. Play: Seattle +125 (Risking 2 units).

Cleveland +9 over SAN FRANCISCO

While we’re well aware of Cleveland’s inability to find the end zone, we’re equally aware of its stellar defensive play. In reality, the 49ers play a similar style to these Browns. That’s why this over/under total sits at a moderate 38½, indicating a low-scoring defensive battle. San Francisco is not known for its offense nor is it familiar with spotting big pointspreads, having just one win by more than six points in their past five games. RB Peyton Hillis is expected back for Cleveland and that also helps control the tempo here. Let’s also not ignore the fact that the 49ers are coming off that big emotional win in Detroit. They celebrated all the way home and well into the night and then had a bye week. Don’t be surprised if a smug and rusty San Francisco bunch gets caught off-guard here and loses outright. Play: Cleveland +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Washington +6 over BUFFALO (at Toronto)

Ask yourself this. What would the line be if this game was being played in Buffalo? We don’t think it would be any higher and that offers us an opportunity to take advantage of a misconception by the marketplace. Treating this game in Toronto like they would a true home game is a mistake. The Rogers Centre in Toronto lacks atmosphere with a crowd that would rather be sipping on café lattes than beer. Tailgating? Where? Bills jerseys throughout? More Steelers and Cowboys shirts are likely. You get the picture. This is not Ralph Wilson stadium with rabid Bills fans. Again, the Rogers Center is like a morgue and in no way can it motivate or amp up the Bills like Ralph Stadium does. How do we know this? Well, we all live in Toronto and there are more tickets floating around for this game than a Blue Jays game in early April. Yes, the Skins have some issues but not enough of them for us to refuse this erroneous offering. Play: Washington +6 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

The rest with no wagers

Indianapolis +8½ over TENNESSEE

This is way deeper than Peyton Manning. This is a Colts team in rapid decay and the upcoming chill of winter will not be sufficient to keep down the stench emitting from this pile of dead ponies. However, we much prefer taking a slew of points with a Colts team that was completely humiliated in front of a national audience last week than a Titans team that is falling apart, as it can’t find a running game while its passing game has gone south. Game opened at –9 and has come down to –8½ or –9 – big juice otherwise it may have made our top choices. Play Indianapolis +8½ (No bets).

HOUSTON -9½ over Jacksonville

Jaguars could suffer significant letdown here after huge upset of Ravens on Monday night and then travelling on a short week. Even with that victory, Jacksonville’s offense remains one of the league’s weakest, averaging a league-low 12 points per game. Houston can score while its defense is vastly improved. Also see our “Survivor” pick this week. Play: Houston –9½ (No bets).

CAROLINA –3½ over Minnesota

Hard to imagine the 1-5 Vikings having a letdown game but after a semi-respectful showing at home to Green Bay last week, they could be even flatter than usual here. Minnesota’s three road games thus far, all on grass, have produced an 0-3 mark while being outscored 85-44. Panthers defense is ranked a stellar 12th in the league and they appear to be getting stronger with each passing week. Vikes are an ugly proposition after game with rival Pack. Play: Carolina –3½ (No bets).

ST. LOUIS +14 over New Orleans

Boo! If that didn’t scare you, the Rams will. Giving up junk-time touchdowns are what the Cowboys do. Yet the Rams stood there on the one-yard line like a drunk that couldn’t jam the key in the lock with four tries and couldn’t get in. Don’t laugh at these kinds of people. They need help. However, the Saints tend to hiccup against dreggy teams and more so as visitors with just four covers in previous 16 away. Saints could get also get caught napping here after 62-7 thrashing of Colts and with eye on avenging recent loss to Bucs who will visit next week. Just can’t do it, that being laying 14 road points. Play: St. Louis +14 (No bets).

BALTIMORE –13 over Arizona

Arizona’s only win this season came in home opener against the Panthers in Cam Newton’s NFL debut. The Cardinals are up to 10 straight road losses and its defense is among the league’s lamest. We thought these guys might show some life against an unsuspecting Steelers team, but instead they got four quarters of the Gaddafi treatment. Thanks for coming. The Ravens just love beating up on bad teams because rarely can they beat up on good one’s. After horrendous offensive showing last week, expect the Ravens to roll in an attempt to make everyone forget about last Monday’s debacle. Play: Baltimore –13 (No bets).

Miami +10 over N.Y. GIANTS

Dolphins are a horror movie but this number is still an overreaction to last week’s meltdown to the Broncos. There is something special happening here. Losing games is losing games, but the Dolphins yanking defeat from the grasp of victory against of the Denver Tebows was a work of art. Still, the Giants are at their best when taking points and with a diminished roster and a trip to New England on deck, this is certainly not an occasion to be spotting double-digits. Do the G-Men ever win easy when they’re supposed to? Play: Miami +10 (No bets).

Detroit –3 over DENVER

The Tim Tebow show was fun to watch but the reality is that we’d rather have a banged up Matthew Stafford throwing from a wheelchair than an able-bodied Tebow attempting passes. Detroit has dropped consecutive games after its 5-0 start and this is a perfect candidate to get back on track against. Frankly, we have no idea how the Denver Tebows don’t get whacked here. Play: Detroit –3 (No bets).

PITTSBURGH +3 over New England

Both defenses have issues but Pittsburgh’s unit appears to be solidifying more and more as the weeks goes by. We're offered a rare opportunity to take points with the Steelers at home and with their solid run game and quick-strike passing game, the Patriots will have their work cut out for them. Furthermore, the whole betting world is laying the points and that’s always a big cautionary flag. From a handicapping standpoint, one has to like the Patriots but one can never ignore the warning flags that accompany “easy looking” games and this one has all of them. Play: Pittsburgh +3 (No bets).

Dallas +3½ over PHILADELPHIA

Despite previous frustrations, have to rely on the Cowboys more complete roster than that of the non-dimensional Eagles. Dallas’ defense did something that 13 others before it could not, by holding the Patriots to less than 28 points. Eagles struggling at home with five straight losses, they’re coming off the dreaded “bye” week and surely they don’t deserve this billing. The only reason it didn’t make our top plays is because the oddsmakers came out with a –3½ not a –3 and that little tick makes us wonder why. Play: Dallas +3½ (No bets).

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Cardinals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -12

The Ravens fit a nice system and Several power Angles here today. We want to play on teams that scored less than 10 points as a double digit favorite vs losing teams. These teams rebound nicely for the win and cover. Baltimore was caught by surprise by a Jaguar defense that kept them off balance on Monday night. Arizona has no such defense and appears to be in the wrong place at the wrong time here as the Ravens are 5-1 ats off a straight up favored loss and coach Harbaugh is 13-2 ats off a non division game vs a losing team and 9-0 ats vs an opponent off a double digit loss. Arizona coach Whisenhunt is 2-14 ats off a non division loss vs an opponent that lost straight up and ats loss. Even worse Arizona has failed to cover the last 11 times on the road off a home game, vs an opponent off a straight up favored loss. Arizona may be in for a long day today.

TEDDY COVERS

Bengals @ Seahawks
PICK: Under 38

Where do the touchdowns come from in this game? Seattle is one of the strongest Under teams in the NFL right now. The Seahawks have a solid defense, holding foes to 5.1 yards per play and 3.2 yards per carry. Seattle’s defense is noticeably better at home, where the 12th man crowd consistently causes false starts for opposing offenses; bad news for Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton. Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has taken a relatively conservative approach offensively on the road this year, protecting his young QB in hostile environments. I expect another fairly conservative gameplan here, unless Cinci falls behind by margin early.

And frankly, I don’t expect the Bengals to fall behind by margin at any point in this ballgame, given the strength of their defense and Seattle’s weaknesses on the offensive side of the football. While it’s looking likely that Tavaris Jackson is going to be behind center for Pete Carroll, a dramatic improvement over backup Charlie Whitehurst who was positively inept last week, Jackson won’t be close to 100% with his pectoral injury.

The Seahawks offense has been held to 17 or less in four of their six games this season. Their 4.4 yards per play and yards per game average both rank #31 in the NFL – only the Jags have been worse. Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis has crafted an impressive defense in Cincinnati this year, ranked #2 in the NFL in yards per game; #4 in points allowed. Expect far more field goals and punts than touchdowns in this one. Take the Under.

MATT FARGO

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Eagles won their final game before their bye week and that was obviously a huge victory. They 'improved' to 2-4 which isn't saying a lot but if they had lost to the Redskins and were sitting at 1-5, things would be different heading into this week. Philadelphia has some confidence now and with the Giants losing two weeks ago also, it is just two games out of first place in the NFC East. Despite being two games under .500, Philadelphia has outgained every opponent, and by an average of 100.6 ypg.

We won with Philadelphia in that game against the Redskins and pointed out prior to that the problems were with turnovers. They have turned the ball over 14 times in their four losses with at least three in each game and that is not going to help pile up any wins. What makes that even more frustrating for Philadelphia is the fact that it has either had the lead or been within one score in the final five minutes of each of those losses. Against Washington, they won the turnover battle 4-2.

The Cowboys could be considered coming off a bye as well as they took care of the Rams with very little problem. The issue with Dallas is the same as it is with the Eagles and that is turnovers. The Cowboys are actually outgaining foes more than the Eagles are but they are just 3-3 to show for it. Turnovers on offense have been the killer and while the Eagles defense has been a liability this season, they are getting healthy and the bye came at a perfect time to key some of those key guys back.

Head coach Andy Reid is 12-0 after a bye and whether or not it is just coincidence, this year it comes at a good time as we can still buy the Eagles low as they continue their upswing. With this line, I feel the value is on the Eagles as the linesmakers are saying these teams are even on a neutral field or that Dallas may be even a little bit better. I'm not sure if that is the case as we can’t go by records, but by the fact that the Cowboys have the ability to step on their own foot yet again.

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games following a cover as a double-digit favorite while going 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games after the defense allowed single digits in points in their previous game. Dallas has covered the last five meetings in this series and along with the Eagles rough start, the majority of the action has come in on Dallas yet we have seen the line move in the direction it should not be going . 3* (230) Philadelphia Eagles

Jack Jones

49ers/Browns Under 38½

The San Francisco 49ers host the Cleveland Browns Sunday in a match-up between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both teams are solid defensively, and I certainly expect a low-scoring defensive battle in this one Sunday.

Cleveland ranks 23rd in the NFL in total offense (308.3 yards/game), and they are scoring just 16.2 points/game. The Browns are 28th in rushing (91.2 yards/game) as well. A big reason for their struggles on the ground is because they have been playing without Peyton Hillis.

Hillis, tight end Benjamin Watson and wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi are all doubtful to play Sunday due to various injuries. These are arguably their three biggest weapons on offense, so moving the football will not come easy for them Sunday.

The Browns do feature one of the most underrated stop units in the league. Cleveland ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense (291.0 yards/game), including 1st against the pass (171.5 yards/game).

San Francisco ranks 27th in the league in total offense (302.5 yards/game) and 11th in total defense (335.7 yards/game). They have the 31st-ranked passing offense (171.0 yards/game) and the 2nd-ranked run defense (74.7 yards/game). The 49ers are allowing 16.2 points/game.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games as an underdog, and 4-0 in Browns last 4 games as a road dog. I don't expect either team to top 20 points in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Steve Janus

Detroit Lions -2½

The Denver Broncos were extremely lucky to beat the Miami Dolphins last week. Tim Tebow made a couple of nice plays at the end of the game, but overall his performance wasn't good at all. Detroit is by far the better team here and is showing some great value after losing back-to-back games to the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons, two of the top teams in the NFC.

The big difference in this game is the Lions front four on defense. I believe they will be able to put a ton of pressure on Tebow and are fast enough to keep him from breaking loose for big runs. Denver will also be without running back Willis McGahee, who was really playing well before going down with an injury.

Denver is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Detroit is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. BET THE LIONS!