Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Ohio State -13.5 over PENN STATE: Not a big fan of the Buckeyes, but I am a big fan of their ability to blow teams out and they need to continue to do that if they hope to make it in to the 4 team playoff at the end of the year. Ohio State has crushed Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers in their last 4 games and remember that Penn State only beat Rutgers by 3 points earlier in the year. Ohio State has scored 50+ points in 4 straight games, which shows their offense is clicking, while Penn State has scored just 22 points in their last 2 games and they have yet to score more than 13 points in any of their 3 Big 10 games this year. The Buckeyes are rolling right now and Urban Meyer is in favor of running up scores and with Penn State struggling to score I just don't see how they score enough to keep the game close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: Home teams that started the year at 4-0 or better and are off BB SU losses exact and BB ATS losses are 11-26-1 ATS if hosting a .500 or better conference opponent.
Clemson / Syracuse Under 47.5: Its hard not to like the under in this game. The Clemson offense has become very stagnant of late with stationary Cole Stout at QB, who is just not the same Dual threat that Deshaun Watson is. The Tigers have scored just 40 total points in their last 2 games, while their defense has been special all year, allowing just 282.7 ypg and 20 ppg, which includes allowing just 227 ypg and 10 ppg in their last 3 games. This is a tough defense that will face struggling Syracuse offense that has averaged just 18.2 ppg in their last 5 games. The defense for the Cuse is not so bad as they have allowed just 23.9 ppg on the year and they should be able to hold down this Clemson offense that has really become conservative of late. The Under is 4-1 in Syracuse’s last 5 road games, while the Under is 20-7 in Clemson’s last 27 games in October. I expect this one to be played in the 30s.
BEST OF THE REST
Virginia / North Carolina Under 65: A few weeks ago I played an under involving North Carolina when they played Virginia Tech and that was an easy winner. A Big reason I played that was because of the defense of Virginia Tech, and I like the same scenario here with the defense of Virginia being able to slow the Heels offense down. Virginia can also look to slow the Heels offense down with their slow paced offense that will just eat clock and keep the Heels offense on the sidelines. The Heels do give up a ton of points, but this is not a big play Virginia offense and I will look for them to dink an dunk their way down the field. This one should be played under 55 points.
Missouri / Vanderbilt Under 42: The Missouri offense looks good on the surface as they have averaged 30.7 ppg, but they have gotten allot of break this year and in reality this has not been all that good an offense, as they are 118 th in the nation in total yards and 111 th in passing. Last week they scored 42 points on Florida, but had just 7 FDs and 119 yards in the game, plus in the game before that they had just 10 FDs and 147 totals vs Georgia. This is a bad offense, but so is the Vanderbilt offense as they have averaged just 17.6 ppg and are 125th in the nation in total offense. Missouri has allowed just 21.4 ppg on the year and the Under is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. I look for a game in the lower 30s here.
Tom Stryker
Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Northern Illinois -20½
Sporting a 5-2 SU record and with four of its next six games on the road, Northern Illinois won't screw around when it visits Eastern Michigan on Saturday afternoon. The Huskies already have one loss in the MAC West Division and they can't afford another.
As a conference guest, NIU has been a dominant force notching a solid 35-13 SU and 26-18-2 ATS record in its last 48 games. In their last 11 on the MAC road, the Huskies have posted an incredible 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS mark. Northern Illinois has pounded Eastern Michigan lately too. In their last 17 games against the Eagles, the Huskies own a proud 14-3 SU and 10-6 ATS record.
It won't take much to fade EMU. The Eagles have been one of college football's worst since 2007 notching a dismal 21-70 SU and 32-51-1 ATS mark including a pathetic 4-35 SU and 12-26-1 ATS in this set battling an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. To make matters worse, MAC home dogs in conference play are a ridiculous 13-68 SU and 25-54-2 ATS provided they arrive off a road game. If our "play against" host enters off a straight up loss and is priced as a pup of +10.5 or more, this conference trend slips all the way down to an awful 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS.
Defensively, EMU is one of the worst allowing an average of 39.6 points and 521.1 yards per game. Rest assured, NIU's high-octane offense (avg 32.1 points and 476.1 ypg) will move the football up and down the field all day long against the Eagles. Take Northern Illinois.
Bryan Power
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State
The line for this Big 12 matchup is heading in the wrong direction, at least in my opinion. I can see why it is, seeing as West Virginia comes off a very impressive outright win at home over previously unbeaten Baylor while at the same time OSU was hammered 42-9 by TCU. But those results work to our advantage here.....
This is a huge revenge game for the Pokes, who lost to the Mountaineers LY in Morgantown, 30-21 as big 19-point favorites. It was the first of only three losses for Mike Gundy's team in 2013, the other two coming in the final two games. So you can bet they've had this one circled in Stillwater for some time. It's also Homecoming at Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday. FWIW, Oklahoma State has won 6 of its last 7 HC games. Don't forget that the Cowboys have only lost to Top 10 teams this year, TCU and Florida State.
West Virginia is improved, but certainly not a Top 10 team. Their only losses came against Alabama and Oklahoma. But it's difficult to like them outside of Morgantown as their two road wins this year have each come by a field goal against lesser foes. I don't know if it was "home cookin'" or not, but WVU also benefitted tremendously last week from a number of questionable pass interference calls against Baylor.
Tony Finn
North Carolina at Virginia
Play: Virginia -6.5
Last week's loss to Duke puts the Virginia Cavaliers in a tough spot, both in the standings and in state of mind, heading into a Week 9 tilt against the Tar Heels of North Carolina. The oddsmakers opened this game with Virginia as a 5.5 point favorite and to no surprise the money has been passed back and forth in this contest with the Smart Money backing the school with the home field advantage, moving the Cavs to a near touchdown favorite in this ACC battle.
There is no ignoring just how good Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams was last week as the Tar Heels outlasted Georgia Tech, but Marco D'Angelo believes in this Virginia defense, superior to that of the North Carolina offense, giving the Cavs the upper hand on Saturday morning.
Virginia lost control of its fate of the ACC Coastal Division lead with a 20-13 loss at Duke last week but all reports have their spirits high with a focus on one thing, and one thing only, playing better than the North Carolina crew that have won four straight in the series.
North Carolina appears to be existing in Groundhog mode, breathing in a déjà vu moment from a year ago when they broke from a four-game funk by winning six of their last seven games capped by a bowl victory. North Carolina snapped this season's four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week, but winning on the road against a good Cavs stop-unit with defensive issues is a long-shot. The Tar Heels are ranked next-to-last in the nation in points allowed per game.
Williams, who continues to carry the offense, completed a school-record 38 passes and added 73 yards on the ground. The Tar Heels have allowed at least 34 points in their last five games, a streak started when East Carolina scored basketball numbers on the porous Heels' defense registering 70 points in the win.
Not only does Virginia have an edge defensively, the Cavaliers' offense has a chance to bounce back against this North Carolina defense after scoring a season-low in points against Duke a week ago. The surface numbers are not what they seem. Virginia outgaining the Blue Devils 465-334 but failed time and again in the red-zone.
This North Carolina troupe has struggled to an 0-3 mark on the road and are giving up more than 55 points per game in their road losses.
Chase Diamond
USC vs. Utah
Play: Utah Pk
This game features the 5-2 USC at the 5-1 Utah. Utah has not gotten the respect they deserve in this game as they have been overlooked all year. Coming off big wins at UCLA and Oregon State this team is for real and playing at home will be a huge advantage. The public is loading up on USC as 61% are backing them yet this line has gone from -1.5 to a PK showing us who the sharps like Saturday Night.
LT Profits
Texas vs Kansas State
Pick: Texas +10
The Kansas State Wildcats come off of a huge win on the road at Oklahoma leaving them atop the Big 12 Conference standings as the only team without a conference loss, but they should be in for a tough battle here returning home vs. the Texas Longhorns, especially if the Cats have any hangover whatsoever. That is because Texas is much improved defensively in its first season under Charlie Strong, who brought his defensive coordinator at Louisville Vance Bedford along with him. Consequently, Texas is 36th in the nation in total defense, recently holding the likes of Oklahoma to 232 total yards and Baylor to 389 yards. The Horns also have 24 sacks, so they could make life difficult on KSU quarterback Jake Waters, who is more of a game manager than a quarterback that piles up enormous yardage. Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. teams with winning home records.
Syracuse vs Clemson
Pick: Syracuse +14.5
Both the Syracuse Orange and the Clemson Tigers recently lost their starting quarterbacks, but surprisingly it has been the offense of the 21st ranked Tigers that has been affected more and that could lead to a Syracuse cover here. Clemson lost quarterback Deshaun Watson early vs. Louisville two weeks ago to a hand injury, and although the Tigers went on to win that game 23-17, they did so without scoring an offensive touchdown, scoring on a punt return and on a fumble recovery in the end zone. Then the offense sputtered again under fill-in QB Cole Stoudt last week, barely nipping Boston College 17-13. Ironically Syracuse also lost Terrel Hunt vs. Louisville, but in two games since then the Orange covered in a 38-20 loss to Florida State and then whipped Wake Forest 30-7 on the road. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in its previous game.
Michael Alexander
North Texas vs. Rice
Play: Rice -14
Here we have two teams that are going in the opposite direction. North Texas has a 177-86 point deficit in their last 4 games, going 0-4 ATS by 75 points and come in off a 19-point line failure versus a horrible Southern Miss team who they beat by 41 last year. Rice has 25 tackles for losses in their last 2 games and are +34½ points ATS in their last 3 games plus they come in rested and looking for revenge.
Joe Gavazzi
Minnesota -5.5
Don't look now, but it is the Minnesota Golden Gophers who have ascended to the top of the West with a 6-1 SU overall mark, including 3-0 in league play. Their opponent today is a downtrodden Illinois team who enters at 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS with recent losses in each of their most recent 3 conference games. In their most recent game, a 38-28 loss at Wisconsin two weeks ago, the final score would have you think they were competitive in this contest. Nothing could be further from the truth! They were on the verge of being blown out, 38-14, before rallying for a pair of backdoor scores. At 3-4 SU, there is a school of thought that this is a desperation game for the Illini. Homecoming home dogs can be a dangerous breed. The Illini may have emotion to begin the game, as they will be wearing gray ghost uniforms to honor the performance of Red Grange some 90 years ago. That emotion will soon wear off once the Gophers begin the ground and pound mentality. That same thought pattern may also lead us to believe that last week's 39-38 win by Minnesota vs. Purdue may be a bit misleading. For the 6-1 SU Minnesota record is far belied by the fact that the Gophers are being outgained for the year by a margin of 364-348. Minnesota is averaging 222/4.8 YPR this season led by RB Cobb, who has averaged 171 RYPG in the L4G. QB Liedner balances the offense. This unit will surely have their way against an Illini run defense allowing 271/5.3 for the season and over 400 RYPG on 7.5 YPR in the last 3 games. It has been since 2010 that the Illini covered consecutive Big 10 games, while Minnesota enters on an upward bound 10-4 ATS mark and has won and covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. At a price point that is actually less than where this line was opening week, we must lay the 6 points knowing that since 1980, in any CFB game where the line is 6 or less points, the team who wins the game outright, covers over 90% of the time. A clear fade of the Illini as Defensive Dud, as Minnesota steamrolls their way to a comfortable double digit victory!
Tony George
Texas +10
Bill Snyder continues to baffle sports bettors in the role of an underdog (I took them against OU last Week), as his team off an upset win at Oklahoma and now travel home to face the Longhorns Saturday Night. Kansas State is the surprise team of the Big 12 to outsiders this season, however as usual, I am not surprised, they have had as many Big 12 wins as any team in the Big 12 in the last 4 years and Snyder is one of the best coaches in football. Have no illusions, K State is the better team here, and the Little Apple is always a tough venue for any team to play and win, just ask Auburn who barely escaped out of here on a Thursday Night in Week 3 of the season. That said Kansas State faces an upstart Texas team this Saturday off a big win.
One thing I have noticed about Texas is that Charlie Strong has done a good job of coaching this team, and with QB Ash going down early this season, Tyrone Swoops stepped in and while it was a rough start, he has evolved into a good QB and the Texas defense is stepping up as well. QB Swoopes in the last 2 weeks has thrown for 655 yards, and you can pass on K State. Texas has 5 star players all over the field, their OL is healthy, and while this line while justified based on last weeks big win, bear in mind OU struggled to beat Texas in the Red River War and I honestly feel with the balance on offense and a hot QB right now, Texas hangs tough in this one. K State is very dependent on QB Waters running the ball with success, Texas will find a way to slow him down. K State wins in a tough one here.
River City Sharps
Ohio State -13.5
After an early season loss to Virginia Tech, Urban Meyer and the Ohio State Buckeyes have found themselves on a serious roll headed into their Saturday night tilt with Penn State in Happy Valley. The offense has been running high octane for these Buckeyes as they have scored 50 or more points in four consecutive games and outscored their opponents 224-69 during this four game winning streak. The Nittany Lions find themselves in a transition period under first year HC James Franklin and got a badly needed bye week last week. That bye was badly needed because in the previous two games, PSU dropped decisions to both Northwestern and Michigan, certainly not top-tier teams in the Big 10. Franklin and Penn State are certainly hoping not to repeat the results of last year’s game, a 63-14 rout by Ohio State and the worst loss in Penn State's history. The Buckeyes have won their last three trips to Penn State and seven of the last nine meetings overall. This really appears to be a bad matchup for the home team, mainly due to the really effective pass rush of Ohio State and Penn State’s clear inability to protect QB Christian Hackenberg. We expect the Buckeyes to dial up lots of pressure on the PSU QB throughout the day and force him into some quick throws. The Penn State offense has been less than stellar, averaging just 21.2 ppg this season, while the Buckeyes are scoring 46.5 ppg. The Buckeyes are a solid 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win and the Nittany Lions have struggled in conference, going 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games. We just don’t see Penn State being able to score enough points to keep up with Barrett and the Buckeyes offense.
AC Dinero
Mississippi vs. LSU
Play: LSU +4
Ole Miss is having one of those majical seasons that comes once in a lifetime: or is Ole Miss on the verge of building something big in Oxford? The problem for the Rebels in this game is playing with expectations and dealing with the pressure. Oh, and another problem is winning at night at a place that I would need the internet to find out the last time they did just that. LSU seems to be finding its stride. Its a young team that has had its issues stopping the run and converting on 3rd down. But with the QB situation starting to stabilize and the young talent starting to gain some confidence and consistency, look for the Tigers to be very tough from here on out.
Red Dog Sports
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Over 77
Both teams have solid offenses and poor defenses. ODU had a bye last week and needed it as they are new to Conference USA and not deep. The Monarchs started off 3-1 but are 0-3 and allowing over 40 points per game. ODU QB Taylor Heinicke is a senior who is the tenth best QB prospect for the NFL, according to Mel Kiper, Jr. ODU has given up sacks lately but should be fresh with a week off and motivated playing a Hilltopper team that struggles in the second half.
Western Kentucky has a solid QB and two running backs to produce points for the home team. I think we see a game where both teams reach 35 or more. ODU has been successful going for it on 4th downs and will be using their backup kicker so they may not attempt many field goals and try for TD's.
Doug Upstone
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Play: TCU -22½
Play On home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like TCU, outscoring opponents by seven or more points a game, after scoring 42 points or more in two straight contests. What we have here is a talented team who is smoking hot on offense and the oddsmakers believe they will continue to roll against an inferior road opponent. In the last decade, teams like the Horned Frogs are 32-7 ATS, 82.1 percent, winning by an average of 32.5 points a contest in this situation.
Marc Lawrence
Temple vs. Central Florida
Pick: Temple
Edges - Owls: 8-1 ATS dogs 8 or more points with coach Matt Rhule; and also 6-1 ATS as road dogs with Rhule. Knights: 2-7 ATS as favorites of 8 or more points; and 2-5 ATS versus .666 or less opponents. The Owls added 5 and 4-star recruits TE Colin Thompson (Florida) and WR Keith Kirkwood (Hawaii) to the roster last week, both of whom are considered impact players. With UCF losing the stats an average -79 YPG against fellow FBS foes this season, the points become the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Temple.
Nelly
Miami, OH - over Kent State
Both of these MAC squads sit with just one win with Kent State picking up its first victory in emphatic fashion last week. Miami is 5-3 ATS this season and the Redhawks competed well in the last two weeks with road tests against two of the better teams in the conference. Kent won 24-6 last season in this matchup but Miami has covered in three of the last four meetings and the Redhawks appear to have big statistical edges on offense this season. Both teams have been terrible at running the ball, averaging fewer than three yards per carry but Miami has had a productive passing game. Miami has gained nearly a full yard per play more than Kent this season with these teams featuring nearly identical defensive numbers. After throwing six interceptions in the first four games this season Miami quarterback Andrew Hendrix has 12 touchdowns with just one interception in the last four games, showing great improvement in a growing offense. Miami has scored at least 24 points in four of the last five games and the Redhawks played right with two of the best teams in the conference in road games the last two weeks. With Kent finally breaking into the win column last week this could be a letdown spot and the best performances for the Flashes have come against running teams, beating Army and playing close with Northern Illinois, Ohio, and South Alabama. Against pass-oriented teams the Flashes have been blown out and a Redhawks offense throwing for 310 yards per game should have great success in this matchup. Miami may be just 1-7 but five losses came on the road and this is a short price for the clearly superior squad.