Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Minutemen of UMass to cover yet another as they head to the Glass Bowl this Saturday for a date with the money-burning Rockets.
The Rockets are just 2-5 against the spread this season, and while this is homecoming for Toledo and they should definitely win this game straight up, hard to make a compelling case for laying the double-digits when you consider Massachusetts has won their last pair of games straight up, and they have covered in 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall.
UMass has been able to score 36 points or more in each of their last 4 games, and if they can come anywhere close to that output in this one, they should be A-OK with the generous spot they are getting from the linemakers.
Take the points as Massachusetts covers their 5th in a row.
3♦ MASSACHUSETTS
Gabriel Dupont
I will lay the points on the road in this one, as the Memphis Tigers are going to annihilate the SMU Mustangs, even on the road.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with Memphis - The Tigers are going to be ticked off after they lost a tough one last week to Houston, 28-24. Memphis' offense racked up 368 yards of total offense, while limiting the Cougars to just 354 yards. The problem was the five turnovers Memphis committed. This week against a weaker opponent, things will be much better.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against SMU - I didn't think it was possible until UNLV beat Fresno State, but there is a worse team than the Rebels in college football, and it's SMU. The Mustangs have as many touchdowns as they do quarterbacks who have recorded significant playing time: four. That's sad for a June Jones-coached team. I realize Jones is no longer with the team, but this is still a program he led into the campaign.
In conclusion, why Memphis is my SMART PLAY in this game - I can see the Tigers winning this one by at least four touchdowns, as they're out to match their highest win total from the past six seasons and climb above .500 this late in the season for the first time in seven years. In the meantime, the Mustangs are still in search of their first win under interim coach Tom Mason, who took over when Jones resigned two weeks into the season.
SMU has the second-worst turnover margin in the country at minus-12, and now it faces a Memphis defense that features linebacker Tank Jakes, who leads the nation with four forced fumbles in six games (0.67 per game), and ranks third nationally in tackles for loss and seventh in sacks. This one gets ugly real quick. Lay the road chalk.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Chris Jordan
My free play for college football is Saturday's SEC clash between South Carolina and Auburn, as I'm laying the points with last year's national runner-up against what is a bad Gamecocks team that will struggle to keep pace.
Auburn has had time to recoup from a loss to No. 1 Mississippi State two weeks ago. The Tigers know their best shot at capturing the SEC West title, moving into the conference championship game and making the College Football Playoff is not only winning out the rest of the season, but winning by impressive margins.
I still think Auburn has one of the most dangerous teams in the country, and it's catching the Gamecocks at the right time, as South Carolina is in after a two-game losing streak in SEC play. The Gamecocks haven't been anything close to the team
that defeated Georgia back in September.
South Carolina lost by one at home to Missouri, went to Kentucky and lost by seven and arrive after a 41-10 thrashing of Furman. I'm really not sure that was the right tune-up game for this one, and will be outclassed in every facet of the game.
Auburn has dominated this series, leading 9-1-1. The teams haven't met since 2011, but that won't sway me, or worry me one bit. Plus, South Carolina is an ATS, having lost six of eight to bookies with a suitcase in hand, and five of six in conference play and four straight overall.
Auburn, meanwhile, is in on a bevy of ATS win streaks, including 10-1 at home AND in conference play, 10-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a straight-up loss, 5-1 in the month of October and 14-3 overall. The Tigers have also covered five of the last six meetings.
2♦ AUBURN
Brad Wilton
While Temple was soundly beat - especially in the second half - in their road game at Houston last Friday night, UCF was busy dodging a bullet as the double-digit home favorite in their 7-point win over Tulane.
I like the Owls to bounce-back plus the points as they did nearly pull the outright upset last year at home against Central Florida, falling by 3 as the double-digit home underdog. Temple is on a 6-1 spread run as the road dog since last season, and they are facing a Knights team that has dropped 2 of 3 this season when listed as the favorite.
UCF has also struggled keeping hold of the football with 8 turnovers in their last pair of games. That makes it hard to trust George O'Leary's team laying this many points.
Go with the Owls to stay within earshot.
1♦ TEMPLE
SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY +104 over Washington
OT included. The market still does not believe in the Flames and so we’ll continue to back them until it does, especially against Eastern teams when they are being offered a price at home. Calgary has picked up five out of a possible six points over its last three games and has picked up points in five of its last six overall. That includes wins over Chicago and Nashville and an OT loss at home against the Bolts upon returning from a six-game trip. The Flames have allowed just 38 shots on net combined over their last two games, a mere 16 to Carolina and a mere 22 to the Lightning. They are getting outstanding goaltending and great defensive play from their top four defencemen. That four-man unit is as good as any in the league. This is a Calgary team that is playing with tremendous confidence and they’re going out there expecting to win. It’s also worth noting that they are staying out of the box with just four minors taken over their past three games. Disciplined, well-coached and still very much under the radar, the Flames offer up tremendous value as a pooch at home against the Capitals.
Washington isn’t your big brothers’ Capitals anymore. No longer are they looking to win games 6-4 or 5-3. The Caps are learning that winning starts from your own blue-line first and everything else will take care of itself. Under Barry Trotz, that’s the new direction for Washington and so far the results have been good. The Caps’ shots on goal against are way down and they are now winning games 2-1 and 3-2. The Capitals loss to Edmonton on Thursday was completely unjust, as they dominated play in the third period, which looked like a 20-minute power-play. We certainly like the direction of them but this wager is not about fading the Capitals. This one is all about playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. Calgary, without question has a better chance of winning than the Caps and they are wrongly being billed as the dog here. It’s also worth noting the “Canadian” angle tonight after the events on Parliament Hill this past week. Emotions are very high in Canada and we saw the Redblacks respond last night with an emotional performance against Montreal. Tonight, the entire country will be watching as the Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs will stage a coordinated tribute immediately preceding the 7 p.m. EST puck drops at their respective arenas. Calgary will have a similar tribute as the only late game in Canada tonight that will be seen on Hockey Night in Canada across the country, We’d be very cautious about betting against any Canadian team tonight.
NASHVILLE +104 over Pittsburgh
OT included. The sportsbooks have all the data they need. They know which teams are heavily bet on and they know which teams get little support from the betting public and they use that info when setting the lines. For whatever reason, the market loves the Penguins. Pittsburgh continues to be one of the most overvalued teams in the NHL. Indeed they have a scary power-play and they’re capable of winning any time but in no way do they deserve this billing in Nashville. Pittsburgh has dropped three of its last four and they blew two-goal leads in two of those. They also blew a three-goal lead in their opener against the Ducks but eventually won that game 6-4. 11 of Pittsburgh’s 22 goals this season have come on the power-play. They did not score a power-play goal in its past two games and lost them both. The blueprint for defeating this team is not rocket science. Stay out of the box and the Pens are very beatable because the same thing that has haunted them in the playoffs for years has not changed. Pittsburgh is weak defensively and they are weak in goal.
All Nashville does is win hockey games. They can crack down defensively and win or they can score goals and win. This is a well-balanced team that is so dangerous. Nashville is getting outstanding production from its top two lines and they can roll out any line and keep the pressure on. In fact, the Preds are the only team in the NHL that has not lost in regulation yet and they have played Dallas once and Chicago twice. With five wins and two OT losses, Nashville has picked up 12 out of a possible 14 points and it’s not a fluke. Here’s the kicker: James Neal was traded from Pittsburgh to Nashville and the Penguins did not have nice things to say about Neal. They called him a bad teammate among other things and Neal took it very personally. Neal’s new teammates love him and they say the accusations are completely unfounded. The entire team knows how important this game is to Neal and they figure to dig down deep in support of their new teammate, who just scored a hat trick in the last game. You all might remember what Steve Smith and the Baltimore Ravens did to the Carolina Panthers in a very similar situation just a few weeks ago. Sometimes it’s more than just another game and for James Neal and the Predators, that definitely applies here. Besides that, Nashville should not be a dog at home to the Penguins.
Detroit -½ +160 over PHILADELPHIA
Regulation only. We could play the Red Wings at -105 which includes OT but much prefer them taking back this sweet price in asking them to win in regulation. Detroit has played three OT games in a row and four OT games in their past five so the odds say that it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll go to OT again for the fourth time in succession. Philadelphia is playing better after a difficult start with two wins in its past three games against Pittsburgh at the Igloo and against Dallas at American Airlines. In between that, they lost in Chicago, 4-0. The Flyers return home from a tough, three-game trip against those three juggernaut offenses. They have allowed four goals or more in five of their past six games and while their offense has compensated, the Flyers win expectation is lower than most because they give up way too many goals and chances. Philly’s goaltending has been shaky and their weak defense, that can’t get out of its own end, just got weaker with two regulars going down (Andy MacDonald and Braydon Coburn) on that aforementioned trip.
The Red Wings have picked up points in five straight. They just defeated the Penguins and prior to that they lost in Montreal, 2-1 in OT. In that game at the Forum, Detroit had a 1-0 lead late in the third when they appeared to make it 2-0 but the goal was wrongly disallowed and Montreal scored with 3 minutes remaining to tie it and eventually win it in OT. The Red Wings have not allowed more than three goals against in any of their seven games to date. They have allowed two or less in four of those. Detroit’s defense has shown remarkable progress over the past calendar year. They are all moving the puck well and getting tremendous help from forwards coming back. That was before Pavel Datsyuk returned and with Datsyuk in the lineup, and now playing in his third game after missing the first five, the Red Wings are even more dangerous. We’ve been high on Detroit since the start of the season. We see a well-balanced team that is paying great attention to details. They aren’t scoring as much as we anticipated but that’s just a matter of time because they are creating chances and they are loaded with offense. The Red Wings are in a decent spot here too, as they catch Philly coming off three intense road games against three quality opponents and there's a good chance of Philly coming out flat. Even if Philly isn't flat, we still like the superior Red Wings in this spot.