Eric Schroeder
Play the Carolina Panthers tonight, as they're my free play, against the Philadelphia Eagles.
I think we're going to see two halves in this one, with the Eagles coming out firing in the first half, and the Panthers closing it out in the second half, with a late-game field goal to win it.
Philly's offense will come out strong against Carolina's sketchy defense, but Cam Newton won't be restrained that long. I expect the Panthers to finally catch on in the second half and come-from-behind in this one.
Carolina's secondary should have learned by now, and I think will be improved for this game.
Take the Panthers in a close one.
1* PANTHERS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Nationals over the Cubs.
I am not going into any statistic copy here, I am just going to tell you that the rain out on Tuesday was a sign from the Baseball Gods that this is Washington's series.
The defending champion Cubs let yesterday's game slip away when they could not figure out a way to solve Stephen Strasburg, and while Gio Gonzalez is no Strasburg, he doesn't have to be. Tanner Roark will be ready to go at any sign of trouble, and quite frankly with Trea Turner getting off the schneid yesterday, I have a strong feeling the Nationals are going to put something together against Kyle Hendricks who they were unable to solve in Game One.
Gut feeling tonight is that good old "Uncle Mo" was on the plane flight back to D.C. with the Nationals, and NOT the Cubbies.
I am backing the Nats to advance with their first postseason series win in franchise history.
3* WASHINGTON
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Washington
Play: Washington
The Nationals took the momentum back winning 5-0 last night in Chicago. Since 2004 home favorites with a total of 8 or less off a road win scoring 5 or more runs, with a total of 8 or less are cashing over 85% vs a team who has 4 or less hits in a home loss like the Cubs. The Cubs get Mad Max who has won 7 of his last 9 at home and both at home vs the Cubs and he has better numbers than Hendricks going for the Cubs. If the Nats go with Gonzalez we will stick with them as the Cubs have lost 7 straight on the road vs leftys. Either way We will back Washington to advance.
Doug Upstone
Texas State vs. UL-Lafayette
Play: Over 54½
With Georgia Tech and Miami moved to Saturday because of Hurricane Irma, we get a double dose of Sun Belt football on prime time. The total in this SBC bash has collapsed from 58 to 55. Texas State is only scoring 14.5 PPG, yet, I think this total is incorrect. The Bobcats defense is not holding anyone in check in allowing 33.7 PPG and last week against a team similar to Louisiana, their main rival UL-Monroe, they tallied 27 points. The Ragin' Cajuns are putting up 37 PPG and though they have played tougher schedule, against Monroe they gave up 56 points (43 in regulation) and 48 to S.E. Louisiana.
ASA
Red Wings vs. Coyotes
Play: Over 5½
Arizona has scored 4 goals in each of their past two meetings with the Red Wings. The Coyotes however did allow 5 goals in the most recent meeting and that was even when they had Mike Smith between the pipes. The bad news for Arizona fans this season is that Mike Smith is gone and his replacements, Louis Dominque and Antti Raanta, are both struggling early this season. Each have a save percentage in the 89% range and the Coyotes are allowing an average of 4 goals per game thus far. Only 1 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs resulted in an under and, with both of these teams entering off of a disappointing loss, each club is likely to being "pushing hard" in this game tonight. The Coyotes have scored a total of only 3 goals in their last 2 games and the Red Wings have scored just a pair of goals in each of their last two games so both teams are pushing to get their offense rolling tonight. When Detroit is off of a loss by a margin of 2 or more goals, their next game has stayed under the total only 14 of 46 times! Also, the Coyotes are a much different team without Smith between the pipes so look for a wild one in this non-conference match-up in the desert Thursday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -3 over Philadelphia
We’re witnessing the ascent of one of the new young stars in the NFL in Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz. Thrown in as a rookie last year when the Eagles traded Sam Bradford 10 days before the start of the season, Wentz was thrown to the wolves and struggled, throwing for 3,782 yards with 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a passer rating of 79.3. At his current pace, Wentz will throw for 4,350 yards with 32 touchdowns, 10 picks and a passer rating of 97.7. He can’t be dismissed as a top end quarterback – fantasy or reality – anymore. Furthermore, the Eagles might be the most talented team in the NFC and they are playing the best football in the NFC. The 4-1 Eagles are on a three-game winning streak having lost to the only undefeated team in the NFL, the Chiefs, in a game that Philadelphia was in a position to win and was slightly better than K.C. The Eagles could very well be 5-0.
Meanwhile, the 4-1 Panthers are at home where they last, remarkably, lost to the visiting Saints by only scoring 13 points. In the first three weeks, the Panthers beat the 49ers, they barely got by the Bills, 9-3 and then they got whacked at home by New Orleans. In the past two weeks, the Panthers have beaten New England and Detroit, both on the road. Now what? Which version of Cam Newton and the Panthers are we going to see here? The Eagles have been remarkably consistent while the Panthers have been remarkably erratic so it would appear that the reliable and well-prepped Eagles would be the prudent choice here but we’re not here to predict the outcome.
What sticks out to us is the opening line of Carolina -3½. That line is a favorite price because the hook is so enticing. Seriously, the oddsmakers could have made the Panthers -3 and not swayed a single bet but they didn’t. Hell, there are some that say the Panthers shouldn’t even be favored here. The market has gotten a hold of this number today and bet it down to its current prrice of -3. Cam Newton is a mediocre quarterback with a career passer rating in the mid 80’s while Carson Wentz and the Eagles should be undefeated and their stock hasn’t been this high since the Donovan McNab/Andy Reid days, which brings us back to our strategy of not breaking down the X’s and O’s. If we were to do that then the Eagles would be the right play here taking back some points. However, the line absolutely scares us off the Eagles. We keep coming back to the same thing, which is why did the oddsmakers make the Panthers -3½ and not -3? These Thursday night games often feature one or two flat teams because of the short preparation week and it is for that reason that we are laying off this one. We prefer the Eagles but the line is screaming out Panthers. We’ll wait for something better on Sunday. (No bets).
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA -1½ +233 over St. Louis
Last year we started playing favorites at -1½ pucks plus a big price as opposed to playing them -½ plus a much smaller price and we’ll continue to use that approach this season. You see, when you bet a team at -½, they have to be up by at least one goal at the end of regulation to win that wager. If the game is tied, you are going to lose that bet. Thus, if your team is winning by one goal, the team behind will pull the goalie 100% of the time and that opens up the door to get that extra goal you may need to cover the -1½-pucks. It’s also quite possible that your team will be up by more than one goal. Therefore, spotting -1½ pucks as oppose to -½ has so much more value with these big takebacks that we’re going to continue to play them this way.
The Blues are off to a terrific 4-0 start with victories over Pittsburgh, Dallas, the Islanders and Rangers and it’s worth noting that three of those wins were on the road. However, scores in hockey are the most misleading of any sport because the details of the game are not in the boxscore. As value bettors, we look for ingredients as oppose to results. The St. Louis Blues are 4-0 and not 0-4 only because of their goaltending. The Blues have been the second best team in every one of their games thus far and eventually it’s going to catch up to them. In offensive zone time, the Blues rank 26th out of 31 teams after four games. In the Blues 4-2 win over Dallas, they were dominated and outshot, 40-21. Against the Rangers, it was much of the same, as the Blues could only muster a mere 23 shots on net while allowing 33 in that 3-1 victory. Against the Isles, St. Louis allowed 42 shots on net and won again, 3-2 in OT. While the Blues record is unblemished, the product on the ice is not and we’ll look to exploit that here.
The Florida Panthers are the least exposed team in the NHL. Nobody watches them, nobody pays attention to them, nobody knows how many games they have played or if they have won any of those and nobody really gives a damn either, not even the folks in that region. That works to our benefit because not many know how good they are either. The Panthers have played just two games this year, both against Tampa Bay, and they’re 1-1 after a 5-3 loss in the first game followed by a 5-4 win in the second game. Florida ranks first in time of possession in the offensive end at 65.2% of the time after two games. That’s a small sample size but it’s also significant. Florida outshot Tampa Bay by a combined mark count of 84-55 in its two games.
The Panthers unloaded some dead weight in the offseason and added some youth and talent. Evgeni Dadonov is a player to watch as he begins a second stint with the Panthers. Dadonov played in Florida from 2009-12, before moving over to the KHL in recent years. Dadonov is a dynamic player that was buzzing all over the place in the first two games. He’ll join a slew of other talent in Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad among others. Bjugstad and Huberdeau missed most of last season, which undoubtedly factored into Florida's losing campaign and in turn to its stock being low this year. This is a highly energized team with a chip on its shoulder that looked very good in two games.
T.A. Waters, in his 1988 The Encyclopedia of Magic and Magicians, writes: “Misdirection is the cornerstone of nearly all successful magic; without it, even the most skilled sleight of hand or mechanical device is unlikely to create an illusion of real magic.” Skilled magicians use misdirection to trick our minds into accepting the wrong image or action, leading us to draw false conclusions. The point being is that the St. Louis Blues has this market tricked and we’re going to try and take advantage of that until we see something different.
Dallas +110 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Nashville Predators pulled a rabbit out of their asses when they beat the Flyers on Tuesday night, 6-5. Down 3-0 but dominating the game, the Flyers would go on to score the next five goals and take a 5-3 lead early in the third period before a bizarre series of event would take place. Down 5-4 with just under three minutes remaining, the refs called two minor penalties on the Flyers at the same time to put them down two men. Nashville coach, Peter Laviolette would then pull the goalie to make it a 6 on 3 power-play and Nashville would tie it up. However, Philadelphia Coach, Dave Hakstol, who was on tilt at that point (for the double minor), challenged the tying goal for offside. The new rule this year is that if a challenge is unsuccessful, a minor penalty for delay of game will be assessed to the team challenging. Naturally, Hakstol lost the challenge and Philadelphia was assessed another two minute penalty. Because there were two men already in the box, one of the two men was allowed back on the ice for the goal scored but because of the challenge, Philly remained two men short for the remainder of the game and naturally, Nashville scored again. The final score was 6-5 Nashville in another classic example of “in-game variance” at work. Nashville deserved to lose because they were clearly the second best team on the ice for 58 minutes.
The Preds have been the second best team on the ice in all three of their games so far. They even lost to Boston, a team that has been beaten twice by Colorado already this year. The Nashville Predators have a lot of market appeal because of their outstanding run in last year’s playoffs that attracted quite the media circus in that region and around the NHL too. What really happened is they had a bunch of players that had career years last season all at the same time and they still weren’t that good. The Preds are full of flaws, which includes possessing the worst goaltending duo in the NHL. Fear not the Nashville Predators.
This isn’t how it was supposed to happen. When the Stars hired Ken Hitchcock in April, a new system was put into place. There were significant differences between a Hitchcock system and a Lindy Ruff system, and those differences would take some time to get used to. Dallas is 1-2 with its only win coming against the low stock of the Detroit Red Wings. They lost to Vegas and they lost to St. Louis. That sets up this sweet opportunity on the vastly superior Stars.
Dallas is so dangerous and they have played so much better than this market realizes. Dallas has shown in their first three games that the offense, defense, and goaltending are all in store for massive upgrades from last year. All it takes is some commitment and positivity. The offense is already firing away at a high rate of speed, so it’s only a matter of time before the goals begin flooding in. The defense is showing a better commitment to playing back and using proper structure. And the goaltending is quickly growing into a positive force. Dallas outshot Vegas 46-30 and lost. They outshot St. Louis 40-21 and lost and then they beat Detroit. The Dallas Stars are loaded and under Ken Hitchcock, who has always had great first years with his new team, they are about to thrive. Less than 10 days into the season and this market is overreacting to early results when only 2.4% of the schedule has been played. Dallas is in great form and will only get better. Win or lose, that they are the dog here is a gift.
Pass MLB
Harry Bondi
TEXAS STATE (+13.5) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Back in September, we cashed a winning ticket on Tulsa (-14) over Louisiana-Lafayette, 66-42, as our 2017 College Kickoff Lock. The basis behind that handicap was that we knew how awful the Cajuns’ defense was going to be this year and things haven’t got much better as the team enters tonight allowing 46.2 points per game. With that said, we’ll gladly take the two-touchdown head start with Texas State here tonight, especially when you consider the home field “disadvantage”: for Louisiana Lafayette, which is 0-2 ATS this season at home, 5-9 ATS the last three years and 36-51 ATS since 1992. Take the points!
The Real Animal
UL-Lafayette -14 & Over 54.5
Texas State I assume cooks up some great steaks but they can't play a lick of defense allowing 44, 45, and 45 points in their last three games. The 45 at UL Monroe was especially bad last Saturday since Monroe threw for 433 yards and ran for another 156. When UL Lafayette played UL Monroe two weeks ago on this field the final score was 56-50 in a game that featured 1,119 total yards. In 2015 on this field when these two teams met the final score was 49-27. Last night's Sun Belt featured TV game was an easy 'UNDER'. That should not be the case tonight. Coach Hudspeth at Lafayette is 10-2 'OVER' when facing a terrible team or one that has a winning percentage of .250 or less. UL-Lafayette has played two home games this year and is averaging 50.5 points a contest. Talk about a tough spot. You give up 45 points on 433 passing yards on Saturday and you play a road game on Thursday. Yikes! Lafayette beat Texas State on the road last year by 24. Take the chalk and the 'OVER' tonight as 2* opinions of -14 and 'OVER' 54 1/2.
Bob Balfe
Cubs -105
Can the Nationals bust out of their offensive slump at home and can they hit a pitcher that just shut them down the other night? Quite possibly, but prove it. This is a game at even money you can tip your hat to the Nats if they win. The Cubs are the defending champs and are going to be a tough out. I don’t think the Nationals can score the runs to win such an important game.
Larry Wallace
Cubs vs Nationals
Play: Cubs -104
Taking the Cubs in this match-up against the Nationals. Hendricks has by far been the Cubs best pitcher. Hendricks is 4-2 this year on the road with a 2.55 ERA. Also, Hendricks is 1-0 in his last 3 starts with a 0.50 ERA. That win was against Washington in Game 1 of the NLDS. Gio Gonzalez is 3-3 in his career against the Cubs.
TJ Pemberton
Texas State vs. UL-Lafayette
Play: UL-Lafayette -14
The UL-Lafayette picked up their second win last week when they beat Idaho 21-16 on the road. The Ragin' Cajuns will now host the Texas State Bobcats on Thursday night on ESPNU. UL-Lafayette beat Texas State 27-3 last season and have the ability for a similar result on Thursday. The Ragin' Cajuns have covered four straight games against the Bobcats. The UL-Lafayette are 1-1 on their home field this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are the better team in the Sun Belt Conference and have covered the spread in four of their last five conference games. The Ragin' Cajuns have battled off-field issues and had suspended 13 players. Trey Ragas rushed for 78 yards last week and scored a touchdown.
After the Texas State Bobcats won their season-opener they have gone on to lose their next five games. Texas State lost their fifth straight game last week to UL-Monroe 45-27 on their home field. The Bobcats now travel to UL-Lafayette who are hungry for another win. Texas State is 12th in the Sun Belt currently. The Bobcats are 0-2 in Conference play and 0-2 on the road this season. The Bobcats have covered the spread in just four of their last ten road games. Anthony Taylor had a breakout game last week for the Bobcats and rushed for 102 yards on 15 carries and scored a touchdown.