Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, August 17th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

DIAMONDBACKS CS. ASTROS
PLAY: DIAMONDDBACKS +125

Some decent variables in play here that suggest value on the visiting Diamondbacks.

First off, Patrick Corbin is in considerably better form than Mike Fiers as far as the two starting pitchers are concerned. The caveat on Corbin is that he is not good on the road. But I do like the way he’s thrown recently, particularly the spiked K rate.

Fiers has been fooling very few batters of late, and I sure don’t like the problems he’s having with his control. I don’t have a problem trying to beat Fiers right now.

Moving to the team elements, Houston is considerably less potent vs. lefties, and that’s reflected in their almost stunning below .500 ledger for the season against southpaws. The Diamondbacks are good producers vs. righties. Their road problems have been pretty major when they run into a lefty, but they don’t have to sweat that here.

Good spot to take a dog with the Diamondbacks.

Mike Lundin

Yankees -1½

The New York Yankees go for Subway Series sweep of the New York Mets Thursday night, and I like the Bronx Bombers in a blowout in tonight's matchup.

Steven Matz (2-6, 5.54 ERA) will take the ball for the Mets. He's coming off his best outing in a long time when he held the Phillies to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 frames on August 12, but he's still 0-5 with a 9.51 ERA through his last seven starts. The 26 year old southpaw is 0-3 behind a bloated 9.33 ERA in four starts home at Citi Field on the season and 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees.

The Yankees turn to Luis Severino (9-5, 3.32 ERA) who was tagged with a career-worst 10 runs (eight earned) in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to Boston his last time out. The Yankees are still a solid 6-1 in Severino's last seven starts and he's 4-1 behind a 2.59 ERA in 12 starts on the road this season.

We can also note that the Mets are 3-14 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 (Severino's WHIP is an excellent 1.11, the third best mark in the American League).

Marc Lawrence

Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays -154

Edges - Rays: Archer 8-2 last 10 away team starts during August… Blue Jays: Rowley off first MLB win in debut start vs Pirates last Saturday… With Archer in commanding KW form with 41 Ks and 5 BBs in his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.

3G-Sports

Buffalo vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -4

Rookie WR Mack Hollins is looking comfortable with the ball in his hands, which is obvious to anyone who watched his 64 YDs and his 16 YPC last game. It's not very often you see the front Dline of Philadelphia get all that thrown off - the Oline of the BIlls wont be keeping them very confused either. Matt McGloin was steady last game - this will be interesting for the 5th year player. McGloin was great with the dink and dunk game last week - this week- they will move it downfield more. With the player situation between the 2 teams recently - I don't see Philadelphia letting the Bills get a whole lot vs them. The main problem with the Bills has been more than slow starts. Buffalo would like to get some of their WRs out of 5 second routes but their sloppy OLine tends to give their QBs less than 3 second protection. Rookie QB, Nathan Peterman also has the propensity to throw some pretty ducky passes when DEs come crashing in. This will be a test - and even though his balls looked better, his poor vision erases any chances of him being nearly as effective as needed here, on the road. Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Philadelphia puts up 18 or more pts here and gets the win and cover at home Thursday night!

Will Rogers

Arizona vs. Houston
Pick: Under 9.5

The set-up: The Astros and Diamondbacks will conclude a four-game home and home IL series this afternoon in Houston. The D'backs won Monday's opener 2-0 but the Astros have rebounded to win 9-4 on Tuesday (in Arizona)) and then 9-5 Wednesday night at home. Houston is a modest 14-15 since the All Star break but still owns a commanding 12 1/2-game lead over the LA Angels in the AL West. As for Arizona, the D'backs lost for the eighth time in their last 11, falling one game back of the Rockies for the No. 1 wild card spot in the NL plus may have to begin "looking over their shoulders," as Arizona's lead over Milwaukee is down to four games in the race for the second wild card (St. Louis is just five back).

The pitching matchup: Patrick Corbin (9-11 & 4.52 ERA) will get the nod for Arizona and Mike Fiers (7-7 & 4.36 ERA) for Houston. Corbin has not had much of a season but is off an outstanding start in his last outing, scattering five hits and striking out eight over 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 6-2 triumph versus the Chicago Cubs last Saturday. However, he has struggled all season away from home, posting a 2-8 record and 6.79 ERA on the road, as opposed to going 7-3 with 2.87 ERA at Chase Field. Corbin has made just two career starts vs. Houston but owns a 9.58 ERA (he's 1-1). Fiers seemingly had his season straightened out by going 6-2 from May 30 through July 21 but he's posted an 0-3 record with an 8.41 ERA over his last four starts (Astros are 1-3). Fiers is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona.

The pick: Can Corbin be trusted on the road? His ERA away from home this year says no. However, I'll go "contrarian" in this one and expect a surprising effort from the lefty. Meanwhile, the Astros are 11-2 in IL games this season, so I say play Under.

Brandon Shively

Washington vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego -114

The Padres have been surprisingly scrappy this year. San Diego has a winning record at home, and this offense is starting to show some major signs of improvement. Some of the youngsters who were called up in the middle of the season have been tremendous for the Padres.

Chacin has pitched some excellent baseball at home this year, and the Nationals are without Harper. Washington also starts Edwin Jackson, and at this point we know he is a subpar starter. The public will likely want the Nationals here, but I'll take the Padres at home.

Zack Cimini

Cardinals at Pirates
Play: Pirates -131

Off a gut-wrenching walk off loss to the Red Sox the Cardinals will take a short trip to Pittsburgh for Thursday. Tied into Thursday’s line is the fact that the Pirates are returning home from a seven-game road trip. Even though Adam Wainwright hasn’t lost since June 17th, grab the home edge with the Pirates.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta -1½ +310 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

18-35 + 8.55 units

PITTSBURGH -1½ +150 over St. Louis

There’s a lot to like in Jameson Taillon’s profile. He's getting a few more swings and misses than he did a season ago. Given his top prospect pedigree, more whiffs could be in his future. He keeps the ball on the ground at an extremely high rate, and plays in a home park that plays neutral for LHB, while reducing RHB homers by 24 percent. Taillon isn't going to run into too many problems via the long ball and is also due for some better luck on balls in play. Taillon 6.75 ERA over his last three starts is nothing to be concerned about because he's been solid all year with few disasters. He's combined a strong ground ball tilt with the ability to miss some bats and his top of the rotation upside remains intact. That said, this wager is all about fading Adam Wainwright.

Adam Wainwright’s ERA over his last three starts was 3.45. We cannot over-emphasize the extreme luck that accompanied it. In his last start against Atlanta, Wainwright was in trouble in every inning but somehow escaped by allowing just one run because the Braves hit into three-double plays in those five frames. Wainwright struck out zero batters in that start and his fastball was topping out at 83 MPH. On TV, the Cardinals announcers even mentioned the lack of velocity and suggested that Wainwright hasn’t been right for several starts in succession. Over his last 21 innings, Wainwright has walked 10 and struck out seven lousy batters or one batter every three innings. Adam Wainwright has 12 wins this season against five losses. When it’s all said and done, this might end up being the luckiest season by a starter that we’ve ever seen. Wainwright’s skills project him to be closer to 4-13 (W/L) as opposed to 12-5. Wainwright’s xERA is 5.87 and even that’s generous because of the pitcher’s park’s he’s mostly pitched in. If his luck holds up again, oh well but this is a starter that must be faded because he’s a massive disaster waiting to happen.

Chicago +138 over TEXAS

Reynaldo Lopez went 5-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 44 innings for the Nationals last year. This high-upside prospect struggled with first-pitch strikes and control in his MLB debut but upper-90s fastball translated just fine with 8.6 K’s/9. It’s not just the quality of the stuff that registered Lopez near even with Lucas Giolito (another top prospect) at the time of the trade for Adam Eaton, but that Lopez’s stuff was actually translating to game performance. Armed with a dangerous four-seam fastball, curve and changeup combo, Lopez has passed Giolito by as the first of Chicago’s pitching haul from this past year to reach the majors and in Lopez’s case, it could be to stay. While he’s slightly undersized at 6’0” and 185 pounds, he attacks hitters with his plus-plus four-seamer that works 96 MPH and touches 100. His low-80s, 11-to-5 curve flashes plus at times but his control of the pitch still lags. Lopez rounds out the arsenal with an average change that he sells well and has improved the consistency in his delivery over the past two years. There’s still some risk in the command profile that could push Lopez to the pen, where his stuff allows for an easy closer projection, but he’s done enough for the South Side to give him plenty of reps in the rotation to see if he can stick. There’s #2 starter upside if his change and command come around. Lopez was called up last week and threw a strong six innings against the Royals. There is risk with all young starters but this one has poise and also has 50 MLB innings under his belt.

Tyson Ross is as big a risk as Lopez (perhaps even bigger) but it’s Ross and the Rangers that are spotting a significant price here. Ross has thrown just 38 innings for the Rangers this year and has a horrible BB/K ratio of 25 walks issued against 29 K’s. His first-pitch strike rate is 48% and his 7% swing and miss rate does not support the 29 K’s in 38 innings. In his last start, Ross had a 2% swing and miss rate with a 46% first-pitch strike rate. Ross’ 6.69 xERA does not qualify to be the fourth worst xERA in MLB because of a lack of innings but it’s still the fourth worst. Ross recently came off the DL to start against the Astros on August 12. He walked five batters and struck out two in that start and was pulled after five. Prior to that, he hadn't made it out of the fourth inning in over a month. With a WHIP of 2.13 over his last three starts and one worthy outing in eight tries this year, Ross may win here but that’s of no concern to us. We’re going with the best of it by fading a starter in trouble that has provided his backers with one of the weakest profiles and return on investment in the game.

Power Sports

White Sox vs. Rangers
Pick: Chi. White Sox

At initial glance, it seems as if there would be no tangible reason to endorse the White Sox tonight. They are 27 games below .500 and have lost four straight. But the last two losses were certainly excusable (played the Dodgers), so that doesn't bother me. Now they move to Texas and what should bother Rangers' fans here is the string of recent efforts from starter Tyson Ross. I feel the road dog has the pitching edge in this one and that makes them a solid value on the money line tonight.

Though the Rangers are coming off a three-game sweep of the Tigers (here at home), Ross has just been awful of late and that's enough to negate the overall team play. In his L3 starts, Ross has posted a 10.66 ERA and 2.131 WHIP, truly awful numbers. He's worked fewer than six innings in all but one start this year. He's made just one start since coming off the DL (blister) and that was Saturday. He issued five walks (just 2 K's) in addition to giving up three runs in 5 2/3 IP, yet somehow the Rangers found a way to beat the Astros that day, 8-3. But make no mistake about it, this is a weak spot in the Rangers' rotation.

On the other hand, Reynaldo Lopez just might be a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season on the Southside. I took Lopez in his initial start of '17, last Friday, and he responded by allowing just two runs on four hits. The White Sox won, 6-3 at Kansas City, the last time they can claim to have done so. Lopez was once considered a prized prospect in the Washington organization. Note Chicago outhit the Dodgers last night, so they could be in for a big offensive day against Ross.

Larry Ness

Washington vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego -107

The Washington Nationals will open a seven-game road trip with the first of four on Thursday night against the Padres In San Diego. Washington has lost Bryce Harper to a deep knee bruise but Stephen Strasburg is expected to rejoin the rotation this weekend. The Nationals lost 3-2 loss to the Angels on Wednesday, ending a nine-game hometand at 6-3. Washington owns a 13 1/2-game in the NL East and will take its impressive 36-22 road record into San Diego, which opened its seven-game homestand this week by by completing a three-game sweep of Philadelphia (owners of MLB's worst record at 43-75), winning the series finale 3-0 on Wednesday. The 54-66 Padres sit 31 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.

Edwin Jackson (3-2, 3.86 ERA) will start for Washington and Jhoulys Chacin (11-8, 4.06 ERA) for San Diego. Jackson signed a minor league deal with the Nationals on June 16, 2017, making it his second stint with the franchise. After several outings with the Class-AAA Syracuse Chiefs, allowing just one ER in 20.1 innings of work (0.44 ERA), Jackson was promoted to the Nationals' major league roster to take injured starter Joe Ross' rotation spot for a July 18 start. Jackson's signing has turned out to be a shrewd move by the Nationals, who are 3-2 in his five starts since he was inserted into an injury-plagued rotation. He registered his third quality start with Washington by limiting San Francisco to one run on five hits over six innings last time out.

Chacin rebounded from a rocky outing in a loss at Cincinnati on Aug 7 (allowed five ERs over six innings in an 11-3 loss) to hold the Dodgers to just one run and four hits over five innings in a no-decision last time out (LA won 6-3). Prior to the setback versus the Reds, he was 5-0 during a six-start span while giving up a combined eight ERs (Padres were 6-0 and Chacin's ERA was 2.02). Chacin did not factor in the decision at Washington on May 28, allowing three runs on eight hits across 4.1 innings and is 3-2 with a 3.43 ERA in seven career starts vs the Nats.

Now here's the rub. Jackson has certainly been an excellent addition for the Nats but how can one ignore that he's 0-6 with a 6.98 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Padres (teams are 1-9)? As for Chacin, save that start against Cincy on Aug 7, his ERA sits at 1.99 over his other seven starts in an eight-start stretch since the beginning of July. I'll back the home team.

King Creole

Bills / Eagles Over 39.5

Yes, both of these teams are off pre-season Week One losses that each went UNDER the Total. Buffalo scored only 10 points at home against the Vikings last Thursday… while Philadelphia scored only 9 points in their road game against the Packers last Thursday. We are certainly aware of these facts (especially in the Philly/Green Bay game). But the OU results in those games were extremely deceiving. After watching both games and dissecting the stats. one can make a case that not one… but BOTH teams should have actually WON… and went Over the Total as well.

Case in point…

Despite scoring only 7 points, the BUFFALO BILLS still had over 300 yards of total offense… ran the ball for over 125 yards… and threw the ball an amazing 44 times. That would be the QB trio of Tyrod Taylor, T. J. Yates, and Nathan Peterman (the rookie gunslinger from University of Pittsburgh) The Bills ‘out yarded’ the Vikings, and probably deserved to win the game outright.

Despite scoring only 9 points, the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES still had over 320 yards of total offense… had 275 yards of passing offense… and threw the ball an amazing 54 times. That would be the QB trio of Carson Wentz, Matt McGloin, and Dane Evans (who ranks as the best QB in Tulsa University history). The Eagles ‘out yarded’ the Packers by more than 70 yards, and probably deserved to win the game outright.

From the DATABASE:

1) Since 2005, NFL pre-season GAME TWO home favorites of -4 > points have gone a PERFCT 11-0 O/U when BOTH teams (EAGLES + BILLS) went ‘Under the Total’ in their 1st pre-season game…

2) 9-1 O/U since 2009 / 5-0 O/U since 2012: All NFL pre-season underdogs of points i n game in which they scored 10 or less points (Eagles lost 24-9 last week), when the OU line is 40 < points.

All sharp OU bettors are aware that the EAGLES have been the NFL’s BEST ‘Over’ team in the pre-season in the last 12 years (29-12-1 O/U). That includes 12-2 O/U when favored by more than a field goal (-3.5 or more) in the pre-season.

Rob Vinciletti

Edmonton at Winnipeg
Play: Edmonton

The Eskimos are undefeated and have won the last 3 here in Winnipeg. They are off a solid road win over Ottawa and have won 18 of 23 off 2+ wins. Winnipeg is off a blowout win over a winless Hamilton tam last week, but will find things get much tougher here. The Bombers are allowing over 31 points per game at home and have lost 13 of 18 vs winning teams. With the visiting team 4-0 in this series we will back the road warrior Edmonton Eskimos tonight.

Scott Rickenbach

Indians vs. Twins
Play:Twins +160

The Twins got hammered Tuesday but entered that contest having won 8 of their last 10 games. Kyle Gibson takes the mound for Minnesota in this one and though he certainly hasn't been spectacular he has pitched better since the All Star break as he has held opponents to a .258 batting average in his last 4 starts. The Indians have won 5 straight games but previously had lost 4 of 5 and last night's rain out certainly could take them out of rhythm here. The Indians are starting Carlos Carrasco in this one and he is off of a strong start at Tampa Bay but the Rays have been dreadful at the plate in recent weeks. Prior to that start Carrasco had given up 5 runs or more in 4 of his last 8 starts. Also, prior to defeating the Rays, the Tribe had lost 4 of Carrasco's last 5 starts. As you can see from above, there is substantial home dog value here. Recently there has been an uptick in favorites getting the cash at the betting window but that won't go on forever. Yesterday the favorites went 13-1 and there were a lot of tight wins for the favorites. The tide is going to start to turn and I expect it to start early Thursday with this solid value spot for a home underdog.

Brandon Lee

Diamondbacks vs. Astros
Play: Astros -121

This is simply too good a price to pass up on the Astros at home. Houston had been slumping, but have won two straight, as the offense has finally snapped out of their slump. The Astros scored 9 runs on 13 hits in a 5-run win on Tuesday and followed it up with 9 runs on 16 hits yesterday in a 4-run win. Now they face struggling Arizona starter Pat Corbin, who has a 5.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. Not to mention he's 2-8 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in 11 road starts. This line is low because Houston's Michael Fiers has a 8.82 ERA over his last 3 starts, but there's reason to be encouraged that today will be better. Fiers has a respectable 3.82 ERA in 11 home starts and an even better 3.26 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 8 day starts.