NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, August 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Thursday's Preseason Tips
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Ravens at Dolphins (-3, 38)
Baltimore
Head coach: John Harbaugh (25-12 SU, 24-13 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Ryan Mallett, Thaddeus Lewis, Josh Woodrum
Beat Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley
The Ravens have been cursed by injuries during training camp the last few years and have been bit by the bug again already, losing multiple offensive linemen, two tight ends, a few receivers and potential starting running back Kenneth Dixon and promising second-year corner Tavon Young. Joe Flacco will look to return to the lineup later in the month, but he's been sidelined with a back injury, bumping Mallett up. Lewis was just signed to replace ineffective Dustin Vaughan, so the offense may lack continuity and quality depth. Woodrum did throw a nice touchdown late in last week's win over Washington, but the Liberty product is considered a longshot to make the roster given his lack of experience.
Miami
Head coach: Adam Gase (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, Brandon Doughty, David Fales
Beat Twitter Follow: Joe Schad
After losing starter Ryan Tannehill to a torn ACL, the Dolphins talked Cutler out of retirement and will give him the start here despite their assertion that Moore is the No. 1 at this point. Obviously, the gig will eventually belong to Cutler, so expect him to get a few drives in with the first-teamers. He's reportedly looked sharp and knows Gase's system from their days with the Bears, so it's not that surprising to hear he's hit the ground running despite expecting to be in the broadcast booth, not the playing field, when the month began. RB Jay Ajayi came out of concussion protocol but is unlikely to play, as is center Maurice Pouncey, who is expected to debut next week.
Bills at Eagles (-5, 39½)
Buffalo
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tyrod Taylor, Nathan Peterman (Rookie), T.J. Yates
Beat Twitter Follow: Mike Rodak
The Bills added Jordan Matthews to their receiving corps, trading corner Ronald Darby for his services after moving Sammy Watkins to the L.A. Rams. He won't play against his former team, so rookie Zay Jones is expected to start as he looks to impress and gain Taylor's confidence. Peterman passed Yates on the depth chart after generating a spark in last week's otherwise listless 17-10 home loss to Minnesota. The rookie from Pittsburgh completed just 13 of his 25 passes, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a higher level of competition. Yates is out to prove he merits a spot on the roster and will need to be productive against third-stringers to get back in contention for the No. 2 gig.
Philadelphia
Head coach: Doug Pederson (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Carson Wentz, Matt McGloin, Dane Evans (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane
The Eagles scored on their first drive as Wentz went right down the field against Green Bay, completing all four of his passes, the last of which went to rookie Mack Hollins. He's expected to play more than a series here, but Philadelphia managed just a field goal with their other quarterbacks in. Nick Foles remains out, so McGloin, who fired 42 passes against the Packers, should get the bulk of the work. Alshon Jeffery is expected to play with the first unit after sitting out the preseason opener. Star left tackle Jason Peters will be out due to a personal matter, so a makeshift offensive line will be employed since multiple starters up front are sidelined.
Buccaneers at Jaguars (PK, 40½)
Tampa Bay
Head coach: Dirk Koetter (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sefo Liufau (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Jenna Laine
Appearing on HBO's "Hard Knocks" has put the spotlight on the Bucs this month, and you'll be able to see plenty of footage against the Jaguars next week since the teams have been practicing against one another all week. Multipe skirmishes have broken out, so the competition hasn't exactly been friendly. Koetter and his coordinators, Mike Smith and Todd Monken, all worked for the Jags and will want to get this one before closing out the preseason at home for their final two gams. Ryan Griffin injured a shoulder and won't play, so Fitzpatrick is expected to play the majority of this one before Liufau wraps it up.
Jacksonville
Head coach: Doug Marrone (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Brandon Allen
Beat Twitter Follow: Michael DiRocco
Bortles was given some time off because Marrone felt his arm looked tired. Since he's coming off a brutal season and turned the ball over early and often in scrimmages, there's a chance he doesn't make it out of camp with the gig. Performing well against the Bucs first-team defense should keep Henne behind him, but he'll have to excel without rookie first-round pick Leonard Fournette since the running back injured his foot and won't play. WR Marquise Lee is also out after being carted off the field with a leg injury on Sunday. Both Henne and Allen threw touchdown passes to rookies Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole to defeat New England in the preseason opener.
Thursday's NFL preseason Week 2 Primer
By: Ashton Grewal
Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3, 38)
Ravens
Starting quarterback Joe Flacco is out for all of preseason with a bad back meaning bettors will see lots of Ryan Mallett. The Ravens’ de facto No. 1 QB hasn’t impressed in training camp and wasn’t much better in his Week 1 preseason appearance. Mallett completed nine of 18 passes for 58 yards and an average of 3.2 yards per attempt.
Baltimore cut Dustin Vaughan, the guy behind Mallett on the depth chart, and signed veteran Thad Lewis as his replacement. Mallett, Lewis and Josh Woodrum will get all the snaps on Thursday against the Dolphins.
Dolphins
Jay "smoke 'em if you got ‘em" Cutler makes his debut for the Fish on Thursday. The retread QB, formerly of the Bears and Broncos, will start against the Ravens and is expected to play a couple series maybe even all the first quarter.
Matt Moore, who started last week under center, is not expected to get much action this week. Coach Adam Gase is worried about over-extending his 33-year-old veteran.
That leaves Brandon Doughty and David Fales to split the remaining snaps once Culter completes his cameo. Fales went 8-for-17 on his pass attempts and racked up 184 yards and two TDs to one INT last week. Doughty completed seven of his 12 pass attempts and totaled 69 yards through the air with one touchdown pass and one interception.
Miami beat reporters suggest starting running back Jay Ajayi might not play as he is still recovering from a concussion suffered earlier in camp.
Line moves
The total opened at 39.5 but has been bet down to 38 while the Fish have gone from 2.5-point favorites to 3-point chalk.
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 39.5)
Bills
Buffalo fans are still spinning following the two trades their team made last week shipping its best wide receiver and cornerback out of town. One of the players the Bills got back in the trades, WR Jordan Matthews, is a bit banged up and isn’t expected to play for the rest of the preseason. Ditto for starting left tackle Cordy Glenn.
Rookie QB Nathan Peterman has overtaken T.J. Yates as the team’s top backup under center. Tyrod Taylor will start and play most of the first quarter before giving way to Peterman and Yates.
Eagles
Philly head coach Doug Pederson says his plan for playing time should mirror Week 1 when the starters got one series before heading to the sidelines. Pederson says he might extend their playing time to two drives, but no more.
The Eagles released veteran running back Ryan Matthews earlier this week, clearing the path for LeGarrette Blount to the top of the depth chart.
New wideout Alshon Jeffery is expected to make his first preseason appearance for the Eagles on Thursday, although, Pederson hinted he’d like to see his team do a better job of establishing the run game. Philly picked up just 47 yards on the ground last week on 19 carries against the Green Bay Packers.
Line moves
The spread and total are both holding steady to their opening numbers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick’em, 40.5)
Buccaneers
The Bucs’ starters are expected to play the entire first half against the Jags. Don’t expect wideout Desean Jackson to suit up though, the free agent signee was limited in practice on Tuesday because of a sore ankle.
Tampa will be working in a new kicker after the team cut former 2016 second rounder Roberto Aguayo.
Jaguars
Things aren’t going well for the Jags and we’re just a week into preseason. Starting running back Leonard Fournette will not play against TB because of a foot injury.
Meanwhile starting quarterback Blake Bortles is having a disastrous training camp. He’s tossed two picks in practice over the weekend before head coach Doug Marrone yanked him. Marrone had Bortles sit out more sessions because he said he thought his QB’s arm looked tired. Bortles says his arm is fine.
Awkward.
There have already been a couple videos going viral from practice where Jags receivers can be heard voicing their frustration with the throws they’re getting from Bortles.
Line moves
The total has moved down half a point to 40.5 while the spread when from Jags -1.5 to pick’em.
Thursday's NFL Preseason Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
Tampa Bay vs. Jacksonville
Odds: Tampa Bay (-2) vs. Jacksonville (+2); Total 40.5
We've reached Week 2 of the NFL preseason and that means we are getting close to getting games we will see in the regular season; at least in terms of who is on the field. Weeks 2 and 3 are considered as the “dress rehearsal” weeks for NFL teams with each organization having their own take on how playing time should be handled.
Typically, starters see about a quarter or so of action in Week 2 and it gets pushed to the full 1st half in Week 3, but some coaches have bumped up that full 1st half (or nearly all of it) to Week 2's contest in order to preserve the health of their stars. Either way, we should get at least a quarter from the majority of starters on Tampa and Jacksonville tonight.
Both sides are coming off interesting first week's of action as Tampa Bay moved the ball rather well vs. Cincinnati but couldn't cash in on the scoreboard. The 23-12 loss to the Bengals was not something the Bucs coaching staff was particularly happy with, and a missed XP and FG try by highly drafted Roberto Aguayo ended up being the last straw for him and the Tampa organization. The Bucs cut Aguayo after the game and haven't been shy about stating how much of an error it was to draft the kicker in the second round.
Jacksonville had a much more positive opening week as they beat New England 31-24, got a TD run from first round pick RB Leonard Fournette, and got some huge plays in both the passing (97-yard TD pass) and running (79-yard TD run) games. Even with all those positives, there is still plenty of concern heading into the year for QB Blake Bortles and his prospects, as going 3-for-5 for just 16 yards in limited action last week didn't do anything to squash those concerns. Bortles will get more opportunities tonight, so it will be interesting to see if anything changes on that front.
Regarding tonight's betting line, we've already seen significant movement on the spread as the Jaguars opened as 1-point favorites before it settling on the current number of Tampa Bay -2. Some of the move centers on Jacksonville not having Fournette or starting WR Marquise Lee available due to injuries, but not having those two guys wouldn't precipitate a line move like this by themselves and quite frankly it's a move I agree with 100%.
Even with it still being preseason, Tampa's got a lot more to prove coming off that frustrating performance, and with QB's Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick seeing the bulk of the action tonight, that's a QB duo you've got to have some faith in. Both guys have significant experience in this league, and while Jacksonville can boast about the same thing with Bortles and Chad Henne, just looking at those four names, who would you rather have?
Finally, Tampa's got a 4-0 SU and ATS run going in the preseason when they are playing their second consecutive game on the road, while Jacksonville is on a 0-4 SU run themselves in Game 2 of the preseason. With the desire to have a much better offensive performance on Tampa's sideline, and Jacksonville looking like world-beaters after beating the Patriots a week ago, I'm siding with the big move here on Tampa as it should get us to the betting window to collect this evening.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay -2
Thursday's NFL Preseason Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
Tampa Bay vs. Jacksonville
Odds: Tampa Bay (-2) vs. Jacksonville (+2); Total 40.5
We've reached Week 2 of the NFL preseason and that means we are getting close to getting games we will see in the regular season; at least in terms of who is on the field. Weeks 2 and 3 are considered as the “dress rehearsal” weeks for NFL teams with each organization having their own take on how playing time should be handled.
Typically, starters see about a quarter or so of action in Week 2 and it gets pushed to the full 1st half in Week 3, but some coaches have bumped up that full 1st half (or nearly all of it) to Week 2's contest in order to preserve the health of their stars. Either way, we should get at least a quarter from the majority of starters on Tampa and Jacksonville tonight.
Both sides are coming off interesting first week's of action as Tampa Bay moved the ball rather well vs. Cincinnati but couldn't cash in on the scoreboard. The 23-12 loss to the Bengals was not something the Bucs coaching staff was particularly happy with, and a missed XP and FG try by highly drafted Roberto Aguayo ended up being the last straw for him and the Tampa organization. The Bucs cut Aguayo after the game and haven't been shy about stating how much of an error it was to draft the kicker in the second round.
Jacksonville had a much more positive opening week as they beat New England 31-24, got a TD run from first round pick RB Leonard Fournette, and got some huge plays in both the passing (97-yard TD pass) and running (79-yard TD run) games. Even with all those positives, there is still plenty of concern heading into the year for QB Blake Bortles and his prospects, as going 3-for-5 for just 16 yards in limited action last week didn't do anything to squash those concerns. Bortles will get more opportunities tonight, so it will be interesting to see if anything changes on that front.
Regarding tonight's betting line, we've already seen significant movement on the spread as the Jaguars opened as 1-point favorites before it settling on the current number of Tampa Bay -2. Some of the move centers on Jacksonville not having Fournette or starting WR Marquise Lee available due to injuries, but not having those two guys wouldn't precipitate a line move like this by themselves and quite frankly it's a move I agree with 100%.
Even with it still being preseason, Tampa's got a lot more to prove coming off that frustrating performance, and with QB's Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick seeing the bulk of the action tonight, that's a QB duo you've got to have some faith in. Both guys have significant experience in this league, and while Jacksonville can boast about the same thing with Bortles and Chad Henne, just looking at those four names, who would you rather have?
Finally, Tampa's got a 4-0 SU and ATS run going in the preseason when they are playing their second consecutive game on the road, while Jacksonville is on a 0-4 SU run themselves in Game 2 of the preseason. With the desire to have a much better offensive performance on Tampa's sideline, and Jacksonville looking like world-beaters after beating the Patriots a week ago, I'm siding with the big move here on Tampa as it should get us to the betting window to collect this evening.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay -2