Joseph D'Amico
UCLA vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -3
Playing at Kyle Field, College Station ain't easy for any visitor. UCLA HC, Jim Mora is pitted against his old OC, Noel Mazzone, who knows the Bruins offense inside and out. UCLA has promoted a few coaches to higher positions for the first time in their careers. Mazzone has Oklahoma transfer, Trevor Knight at QB, who as you might recall beat Alabama in the 2013 Sugar Bowl. UCLA has soph QB, Josh Rosen but Texas A&M counters with "QB KILLERS" in DE's, Garrett and Hall, not to forget, playmaker, LB, Alaka. The Bruins are rebuilding in their OL and receiving corps, and are still undecided at the RB position. If Rosen goes to the air, he has to contend with superstar Safeties, Evans and Watts. The Aggies are known as great starters, going 11-4 ATS their L15 games played in the month of September.
Teddy Davis
Missouri vs. West Virginia
Play: Missouri +10
Missouri was a team that last year that most remember for having a lot of distractions. Now they have a new head coach in Barry Odom and new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel. I have Missouri has a sleeper especially in the SEC East where about anything can as we saw Tennessee almost gave one away. Missouri struggled on offense big time last year but now Sopmore Drew Lock returns as the starter and I expect him to play a lot better with the new coaches in place here. People are forgetting how good the Tigers were on defense last year ranking 6th in total defense in the country and return 8 starters back. That is huge and why this line is to high.
West Virginia has a respectable year going 8-5. Their offense is very good but as I have mentioned Missouri has the defense to hold Skyler Howard in check. West Virginia wasn't very good on defense last year either and they only return 3 starters from that crew. Missouri shouldn't have troubles putting some points on the board and with that solid defense I see them hanging in there and possible pulling off the upset.
Jim Feist
San Jose St at Tulsa
Pick: Over
San Jose State has gone 1-9 in its last 10 season openers on the road with a suspect defense. They had to a Tulsa team with a high-powered offense. Senior quarterback Dane Evans ranked seventh nationally with 333.2 passing yards per game last season to lead a Tulsa offense that averaged 37.2 points and returns six starters, including wide receivers Josh Atkinson and Keevan Lucas. Tulsa gained at least 600 yards in each of its first three games a year ago. The defense allowed 536.6 yards per game last season and the team is on a 19-7 run over the total. The San Jose Spartans have senior QB Kenny Potter, who rushed for 415 yards and seven touchdowns last season and ranked as the Mountain West's most accurate passer. The Over is 11-5 in Spartans last 16 games on fieldturf.
Rob Vinciletti
Rutgers vs. Washington
Play: Washington -26½
The Huskies have a vaunted offense that can score in bunches. They have covered 11 of 14 as a favorite from 22 to 31 and 3 of 4 at home if the total is 49 to 56. Rutgers allowed over 40 points per game on the road vs winning teams last year and has failed to cover 20 of 28 as a dog of 22 to 31. For our Power system we are playing against losing teams from last year that are on the road for the first time with a new coach vs a team that won 7 or more games last year. The Knights have failed to cover 5 straight as a dog of 20 or more.
Brandon Lee
USC/Alabama Under 53
There's a lot of talk about this game and whether USC is going to be able to keep it close enough to cover. While I think they could, I just as easily could see Alabama win here by 14. I think the real value is with the total. Both teams are absolutely loaded with elite talent on the defensive side of the ball and have ample amount of time to prepare for this game. While both teams also have some great talent at the skill positions on offense, both will be sending out a first year starter at quarterback. I think this is going to be a grind it out game, where touchdowns are hard to come by. With this total at 53, these two teams have to average almost two touchdowns a quarter to push it over the mark. I just don't see that happening.
Ray Monohan
Southern Miss vs. Kentucky
Play: Southern Miss +6.5
Southern Miss heads into SEC country to take on the Kentucky Wildcats and they hold solid value here.
This is one of those games they can steal outright.
Kentucky is extremely thin defensively and going up against one of the best QBs in C-USA in Nick Mullens, they're certainly going to struggle. Mullens and company has one of the best offenses in the conference as they have plenty of downfield threats to pick on the Wildcats secondary with.
Kentucky meanwhile, hasn't had much of an offensive spark in the most recent seasons. The Southern Miss defense should be able to cause enough problems here and really force Kentucky into some tough 3rd down plays.
Some trends to note. Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
This game has no clear cut advantage. Despite playing in the SEC, the Wildcats don't have anything overpowering. Southern Miss will hang around here and have legit chance to steal this one.
Jack Jones
Alabama -12
Alabama is making its case as the best dynasty ever in college football. Head coach Nick Saban simply doesn’t settle for anything less than the best, and his players certainly reflect that mentality on the field. I expect the Crimson Tide to get off to a great start this season in defending their national championship, which was their fourth in the past seven years.
The Crimson Tide always lose a ton of talent to the NFL, which is why it’s not concerning that they return just 11 starters this season. They only had 10 back last year and won it all. They also have had no problem replacing their starting quarterback, so that’s not a concern either. Saban gets the best recruits in the country, so often times the new starters are better than the previous ones.
Alabama’s QB competition is down to two in junior Cooper Bateman and freshman Blake Barnett. Whoever wins the job should do just fine after this offense put up 35.1 points per game last year with just three starters back. Now the offense has six starters back in 2016. Each of the top three receivers return from last year, as do three starters and 64 career starts along the offensive line, which should be one of the best in the country.
Defensively, Alabama gave up just 15.1 points and 276 yards per game last year. In fact, the Crimson Tide have allowed 15.1 or fewer points per game in six of the past seven seasons with a high mark of 18.4. Even with only five starters back on D, this will once again be one of the best stop units in the land.
USC does have 10 starters back on offense but will be breaking in a new starting quarterback. The loss of Cody Kessler is a big one. I think junior Max Brown should be fine with the weapons he has around him, but it’s going to be tough having his first career start against this Alabama defense.
But where I think this game will be won is Alabama’s running game up against an inexperienced front seven for the Trojans, who bring back just one starter among their front seven. They have to replace their entire defensive line and two of three linebackers with sophomore Cameron Smith their only returning starter. If you’re not strong in the trenches defensively, you have no chance against Alabama.
Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ALABAMA) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The defending national champion is 17-0 in its last 17 seasons openers with an average victory of 44-15. This will be the fifth straight season Alabama opens on a neutral site, and it’s 4-0 with an average win of 20 points per game in the previous four. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five season openers. The Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
Bill Biles
UMass vs. Florida
Play: Florida -36
Florida is coming off an up and down season. They played top notch defense but the offense would always bring them down. They bring in Luke Del Rio at QB to hopefully bring the offense some life. Florida rolls in this one as they gain confidence in the offense.
Jimmy Boyd
North Carolina vs. Georgia
Play: North Carolina +3
Bringing in Smart to replace Richt is getting a lot of buzz at Georgia, but with a new coach comes new systems. There’s also a lot of hype around this team with Nick Chubb back healthy. I think Smart is going to do a lot of great things here sooner rather than later, but this is a brutal matchup to open the season.
Smart has said that senior Greyson Lambert will be the starter. This actually comes as a surprise to me. Lambert wasn't all that impressive last year and I fully expected freshman sensation Jacob Eason to be the starter. That's a big plus here for UNC as Georgia is going to have to throw at some point and I don't think Lambert is going to do enough here to lead the Bulldogs to victory.
Georgia is just going try and pound the rock with Chubb and hope that’s enough to win. North Carolina knows this and will load the box. Keep in mind the Tar Heels were one of the most improved defensive teams in the country last year. That coming in the first year under defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. With 7 starters back, I look for even more progress to be made on this side of the ball.
What will likely scare most people off UNC is the loss of starting QB Marquise Williams. He did it all last year with 3,000+ passing yards and nearly 1,000 yards on the ground. I don’t expect them to replicate his numbers, but I like what I have seen out of junior Mitch Trubisky. He’s another dual threat who can beat you with both his arm and his legs. These do it all quarterbacks are the most difficult teams to prepare for and let's not forget spread offenses are what gave Smart and Tide the most fits in his time at Alabama.
North Carolina also has one of the best running backs no one is talking about in junior Elijah Hood. He had 1,463 yards and 17 scores last year. He figures to be even better behind the ACC’s best offensive line. Not to mention the Tar Heels have a bunch of talent at wide receiver.
UNC proved they are for real in last year’s ACC title game against Clemson. After last year’s loss to South Carolina in the opener, they will be out to make a statement. I think they have the easier time moving the ball and pull off the minor upset.
Cajun Sports
New Mexico St vs. UTEP
Play: Over 60.5
The UTEP Miners return thirteen starters from last season’s team which includes their star RB Aaron Jones who was lost last season in their opener. The Aggies also return thirteen starters and add one critical addition in TCU transfer QB Tyler Matthews. UTEP has dominated this series of late winners of the last seven going 5-0-2 against the number but our interest in actually in the total. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 67.21 points in this matchup. Last year UTEP had fallen behind 44 to 30 before scoring a late touchdown with under a minute left to force overtime and eventually got the victory. Both teams have the ability to score forty tonight and we expect a high scoring affair. Since 2012 the Aggies have posted a record of 28-8-1 Over the posted total cashing for Over bettors at a rate of 77.8 percent of the time. They are 26-7 Over when installed as an underdog over that span and 16-3 Over when playing away from home. Finally we see the Aggies are 15-3 Over the last eighteen times they have been installed as a road underdog. We will not buck that trend here play the Over.
Larry Ness
LSU vs. Wisconsin
Pick: LSU
Incredibly, Les Miles almost lost his job last year at LSU. I say that because in his 11 years at Baton Rogue he owns a 112-32 record (that's an average of 10.2 wins per season), playing in two BCS national title games and winning in 2007. Miles remains at LSU and a huge off-season hire was Dave Aranda, coming off an impressive three-year stint as Wisconsin's defensive coordinator. Aranda's old team (Wisconsin) and his new team open the season Saturday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Just a historical note here. This is the Badgers' first game in Wisconsin outside of Madison since 1905!
Paul Chryst opens his second season at Wisconsin, coming off a 10-3 record in 2015, including a 23-21 Holiday Bowl win over USC. The Badgers are in search of a 10-win season for the sixth time in eight years, despite having just 13 seniors (among the fewest of any BCS schools). Fifth-year senior Bart Houston, who has 51 career pass attempts, is expected to start at QB, having won the starting job just 10 days before the team's season-opener.
Junior QB Brandon Harris returns under center for the Tigers but LSU's offense is predicated on Leonard Fournette, who is coming off the most productive rushing season in SEC history. Fournette is a Heisman Trophy contender. He rushed for 1,953 yards and 22 TDs in 2015, going over 200 yards four times. Wisconsin averaged 150.3 YPG rushing last season, the worst single-season total since the 1995 team averaged 128.9. Since 2007, the Badgers have averaged at least 200.8 YPG for eight straight seasons (note: In 2014, Wisconsin averaged 320.1 YPG rushing).
Wisconsin's former DC and LSU's current DC (Dave Aranda) could be the key in this game.Wisconsin had the No 1 scoring defense in the country (13.7 PPG) and the No. 2 total defense (268.5 YPG) in 2015. LSU's "D" figures to improve on 2015's numbers, when it ranked 41st in scoring defense (24.3 PPG) and 25th in total defense (347.2 YPG).
LSU has opened with a neutral-site game in FOUR of the last six years, so this is nothing new. What's more, LSU is 11-0 SU in season openers under Miles. Lay the points.
MMA OddsBreaker
Danho v Colombo
Pick: Danho
"The Man Mountain" Jarjis Danho didn't have a great UFC debut, running out of steam after a strong opening few minutes against Daniel Omielanczuk, but he's facing an opponent this time around that should be a bit easier to vanquish. Christian Colombo is a veteran heavyweight making his UFC debut at 36 years old. While Colombo has some length to him and some power, he's also much slower than Danho. I expect Danho to get inside on Colombo and really punish him with dirty boxing and knees in the clinch as well as combinations while he has Colombo with his back to the fence. Colombo doesn't have great takedown defense either so Danho might be able to put him on his back and work him over there. As long as Danho doesn't sit at distance and try to have a kickboxing battle or trade jabs, he's going to be in good shape here at a good price.
DAVE COKIN
FRESNO STATE AT NEBRASKA
PLAY: NEBRASKA -28.5
Fresno State is looking to rebound from a dreadful 2015 campaign. This year’s Bulldogs are very young. There are 67 freshmen or sophomores on this roster, and that could be a problem. But I’m actually not so sure that will be the case. The ’15 Bulldogs had a lot of quit in them, which isn’t a nice thing to say, but that’s the way it was. Head coach Tim DeRuyter has made it clear that he wants to see more fight out of his guys this season.
I do see certain elements on this Fresno State squad being better than last season. Chason Virgil is a redshirt freshman, but he does have one start under his belt and should be an immediate upgrade at the most important position on the field. The Bulldogs have new coordinators on both offense and defense. I expect the team to be physically tougher than they were last season thanks an arduous off-season training regimen.
That’s the good news for the Bulldogs. The bad news is that they’re up against a vastly superior entry today and while Nebraska has some of the most polite fans you’ll find anywhere, a season-opening journey to Lincoln is still a tough deal for Fresno State.
As for the Huskers, they’ve got a real chance to be a very good football team. That’s by no means a slam dunk, as this team has to learn not to lose at the wire. Nebraska was literally just a handful of plays away from double digit wins and a big bowl game. But they at least ended the season on a high note with a post-season win over UCLA, and assuming they’ve gotten past their end game miseries, this team could be a powerhouse.
If I’m focusing on the two biggest Cornhusker keys to success, they have to be upgrading the pass defense and cutting back on the turnovers. As for the latter, Tommy Armstrong is now a senior and one would think his decision making will be enhanced. The secondary almost has to be better, but talking a good game as they’ve been doing and actually playing that way are two different animals.
Fresno State is going to play fast. It’s up to the Nebraska defense to prevent Virgil from getting comfortable and that means turning up the heat and creating errors, always a possibility when the QB is inexperienced. When Nebraska has the football, the task will be to contain what will be seemingly endless Fresno State blitzes. Nebraska has a young offensive line. But this is also the second year in the new system put in place last year, so I actually think the Huskers might be better in the trenches than they were last year.
With DeRuyter making a very big deal out of his troops showing lots of fight and not falling into the malaise that was prevalent in 2015, the goal for Nebraska should be very simple. Take the fight out of this young team. Beat the Bulldogs early and remove that energy. If the Cornhuskers can accomplish that, they should win this by 35. If they don’t and Fresno is allowed to hang around, we could end up with a competitive game. My view is that the former outcome is the more likely one.
This game came really close to making that final cut as I power rate the game Nebraska -32. That’s a pretty significant margin from where the actual betting line is right now, but as spreads grow larger a three or four point differential from my ratings becomes less of a factor. So this one goes into the opinion column, but I definitely lean to the Nebraska side to score the blowout win.
Brad Wilton
For Saturday's comp play, I am willing to lay the points with Penn State as they play host to Kent State.
The Nittany Lions have covered 7 of their first 11 as a home favorite under 3rd year coach James Franklin heading into the 2016 lid-lifter, and the Nittanys are also 15-8 overall as a lined home fave since 2012.
That bodes well against a Kent State team that struggles when they play the Big Ten Conference, as the Golden Flashes have lost each of their last 13 meetings against the Big Ten, while failing the line 8 of the last 10 when taking on Big Ten schools!
Overall, Kent is just 4-7 as the road dog the last 2 seasons.
Happy Valley indeed on Saturday.
Lay the wood as Penn State names the score.
4* PENN STATE
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves +131
Two of the worst teams in baseball will square up at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday when the 52-83 Atlanta Braves take on the 60-74 Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta has been the hotter of the two teams lately though, and it defeated the Phillies 8-4 last night. I think this looks like a great price on Atlanta to notch another victory.
Vince Velasquez (8-6, 4.21) takes the ball for Philadelphia. He's 0-4 with a 5.76 ERA in his last eight starts (1-7 team record), and the 24 year old has been reached for 10 runs on 14 hits with five homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two home starts. He's 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season while surrendering six runs on 13 hits through 12 innings of work.
The Braves turn to John Gant (1-3, 4.59 ERA) who will try to make a case for why he should be in the Atlanta rotation for 2017. Gant is making his first since returning from a left oblique strain that kept him on the disabled list for 58 days, but he has posted a 3.75 ERA in 24 innings of work on the road this season.
Pitching advantage Philadelphia, but then what? The team has lost eight of its last 10 games while Atlanta has won each of its last four and five of its last six.