Scott Delaney
The Gameday crew is at Lambeau Field, and the spotlight seems to be on this game. Yeah, yeah, I know, USC and Alabama are grabbing the headlines, but this is a big game with so many intangibles surrounding this game, including the flooding in Louisiana.
But there's a game to be played, and all emotions aside, the Wisconsin Badgers are poised to play spoiler in this season opener in their home state, but inside the home of the Green Bay Packers.
A victory today would give Wisconsin a boost of confidence to open the season, which includes one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Look for Wisconsin senior quarterback Bart Houston, who won a training camp competition with redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook, to keep the Badgers in this game with a strong arm and strong insight for field presence and reading LSU's defense.
Take the points.
5* WISCONSIN
Jim Mack
SMU at N. Texas
Play: SMU -9.5
If you follow my selections regularly you will sometime hear me refer to games as "hidden blowouts". They are "hidden" because they aren't so obvious of a mismatch to the untrained eye. One of those games this week could be happening in Denton, TX. North Texas finds itself in a downward spiral, just two years removed from a 9-4 bowl game winning season of 2013. A career assistant coach at many previous stops, Seth Littrell takes over the bumbling football program after a 1-11 finish in 2015. SMU meanwhile, was just a game better at 2-10 a year ago, but boasts 16 returning starters, including QB Matt Davis, who threw for 16 TD’s against just seven interceptions. The Mustangs are a 9.5-point favorite on the road, but won easily over the Mean Green last September, 31-13, while winning the yardage battle 444-240. Things could be much worse for North Texas in 2016.
SPORTS WAGERS
E. Kentucky +20½ over PURDUE
We’re always emphasizing value and taking back inflated points and that absolutely applies here when the Colonels take on the Boilermakers. So, what we have here is an FCS squad going on the road to play an FCS program. The Boilermakers have been so bad over the years that they can’t even schedule a cupcake correctly in the first week of the season. The Boilermakers have a pathetic 6-30 record under HC, Darrell Hazell. Three of those six wins came against FCS opponents. While, the Colonels are also an FCS opponent, they have some FBS quality players and it starts with their QB’s. Here’s where it gets interesting.
Starting for the Colonels will be either Missouri transfer Maty Mauk or Bennie Coney, a Cincinnati transfer. Coney is in his third year at EKU and set several school records last season while Mauk arrived before this season after a roller-coaster career at Mizzou. We all know Mauk's story. He was an 18-game starter for Missouri teams that won the SEC East in 2013 and 2014 before he was dismissed from the program in January amid multiple legal and drug issues. He transferred to EKU, which helped save ex-Ohio State defensive end Noah Spence's career last season. The reports are that Mauk has his head on straight and looks terrific. We are pretty sure that he’ll get this start and we all know what he can do when he’s focused. Mauk was shredding SEC teams prior to last year and now he and the Colonels, who figure to be sky high here, get nearly three converted TD's to work with. At the end of the day, we wouldn’t recommend spotting points like this with Purdue even if the game was final. They have six wins in three years under Hazell and now they’re being asked to win by a big margin in their season opener? Grab the points.
Bowling Green +27½ over OHIO STATE
Mirroring a narrative that echoes across many boards and books, top-five ranked teams are always expensive on opening weekend. Despite the shiny luster of playing on an elite squad against a perceived inferior opponent, these teams do not cover often. There is no greater candidate for pulling off such a gambit than Ohio State.
For those that followed the Buckeyes last year when they were regarded as a defending National Champion and the Nation’s top team, Ohio State offered extraordinary disappointment against the spread. These results were often fostered against teams like Bowling Green, squads hailing from mid-major conferences that are cast as sacrificial lambs to be devoured in a tune-up match. However, Ohio State had difficulty in building large enough leads to cover the points they were spotting. The Buckeyes failed to cover against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, two teams from the MAC that were given a plethora of points. In fact against NIU, Ohio State had to resort to theatrics to get out of there alive with a win. Incidentally, the Buckeyes’ brush with peril was also experienced in the cozy confines of The Horseshoe in Columbus. Ohio State is a team we are going to target over and over again when warranted because markets are far too generous with points on their behalf most of the time. We look for value and given the fact that the Scarlet and Grey are spotting nearly four touchdowns to a team that is a defending conference champion and 10-game winner sporting one of the best scoring offenses in America in 2015, we like our chances.
Bowling Green may have replaced a record-setting quarterback in Matt Johnson but they have all the pieces to continue on their success. While this may be Head Coach Mike Jinks’ first game at the helm of the Falcons, his rise to prominence is meteoric like that of the Falcons who have been a stalwart in the MAC for many years previous. While the Falcons will certainly have their work cut out for them in Columbus, it is safe to presume they can keep this game within four touchdowns, as Ohio State won just two games in 2015 by a margin greater than 27 points. And who were the assailed? Hawaii in Week Two and a snake-bitten Michigan squad at the end of the season when Michigan’s morale was demolished. Tradition alone doesn’t entitle any program to 30-point victories. With only six returning starters and much more important fish to fry as early as Week 3 when OSU travels to Oklahoma, we can’t imagine that Urban Meyer will be looking to run up the score. For OSU, who has a very difficult schedule this season, this is an important tune-up game for what lies ahead. The emphasis for the Buckeyes will be execution, playing responsibly and paying attention to detail and not running up the score. Even if things go terribly wrong for the Falcons, a back-door cover is almost always open when points like this are offered. We doubt we'll need that open door.
UL-LAFAYETTE +19 over Boise St
When it comes to mid-major programs, Boise State is one of college football’s blue bloods. The Broncos carry a legacy of overachievement, crowned by not one but three Fiesta Bowl victories against some highly-regarded names, including Oklahoma, TCU and Arizona. The Broncos are a team that is consistently in the discussion of Group of Five Qualification prospects, on the short lists of many analysts to earn a berth to a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. With this reputation comes heightened expectations but more importantly, inflated points.Defensively, the Broncos are without some key members of the 2015 unit, which includes safety Darian Thompson and linebacker Kamalei Correa, who have both moved on to the NFL.
UL-Lafayette won just four games in 2015 but that was truly an aberration, as the Ragin’ Cajuns are easily an eight or nine-win program. We are by no means calling for an upset here but Boise State will likely have a greater challenge than what is forecasted against this UL-Lafayette team. There are many reasons to believe the Ragin’ Cajuns can keep this one within this range. You see, ULL has never shied away from playing formidable foes in hostile confines. This is a team that has squared off with Louisiana Tech, Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Arkansas in the previous three years. Removing last year’s disappointing campaign, Louisiana Lafayette won nine games in four consecutive seasons previous to 2015 so it is safe to say that this is not their first rodeo. The strategy for ULL will very likely be to run the ball, keep the clock moving and limit the Broncos possessions. That could bodewell for a Ragin’ Cajun ground game that should be ready to rock again with Elijah McGuire, one of the best backs the Broncos will face this year. Last season, Boise State was fine until it had problems stopping good ground games. When the D failed against the better ground attacks, the team lost. This time around, the Broncos are breaking in just enough new starting talent on the line to potentially have a bit of a problem on the road right away. With a new season comes new hope and Week 1 often procures some shocking upsets and close calls for many favored teams. This is going to be a jacked up ULL team at home and we also love that this game kicks off at noon, which is an unfamiliar and uncomfortable start time for this western invader.
USC +12 over Alabama
You know the billing; two of the most storied programs in all of College Football meet on a neutral field to add another chapter to the multitude of verses speaking into the titanic clashes between the game’s blue bloods. Nothing typifies prestige and a commitment to excellence better than Alabama and USC. Both programs live to hoist the hardware but as of late it has been Alabama who has sported all the accolades. Alabama comes in with the hype machine singing their praises behind them, defending National Champion with a #1 ranking unanimously in all polls with a world-class crop of talent on defense. To many eyes, USC seems doomed to be pummeled and pulled away in the undertow of the Crimson Tide. However, this is the popular perception almost always with teams of Alabama’s caliber. Let us rewind to the Cowboys Classic of 2014 when another defending champion, Florida State, came in as the #1 team in all of the land against a perceived inferior opponent sporting the same ranking as #17 USC. That woould be Oklahoma State.
Florida State came in with a Heisman winning quarterback to boot abd they had all the press and all the spotlights on their gold helmets. Oklahoma State seemingly was a sitting duck, being spotted a generous amount of points and yet the Pokes could have easily won the game. In fact, the game was settled late in the fourth where the Noles would escape 37-31. It would not be shocking to assume a similar situation may take shape tonight in Arlington.
USC comes in off an 8-6 campaign in 2015 which to Trojan standards is very disparaging. Nevertheless, the Men of Troy return several toys to play with on their offense. Most notably, wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster a premiere talent that accumulated 1,454 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Without question Alabama will look to send Marlon Humphrey his way to shut him down, but the Trojans also have a duo of running backs in Ronald Jones and Justin Davis, both of whom just finished shy of 1,000 yards in the rushing department. With all this talent readily available to deploy, this contest by no means is going to be a cakewalk for the Tide. Still much of the public opinion feels otherwise. If you want to know what a real contender looks like, sure, go ahead and watch the Tide tonight in this featured game but don’t forget to check out the opposition, as the Trojans are just getting warmed up and may not lose a game by this much the entire season.
AUBURN +8½ over Clemson
Auburn finished a very disappointing 2015 with an un-Auburn like 7-6 record. However, the Tigers did cap their season off with a 31-10 win over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. They were just 2-6 in the very tough SEC and the result is that their value in the marketplace is low coming into this season. It wasn't long ago it would have been unthinkable for Auburn to get a converted touchdown at home to Clemson or almost any FBS team for that matter. Auburn is one of the toughest places to play in the nation. A down year for the Tigers looks much worse than it actually is because there is no mercy in the SEC. Auburn now wipes the slate clean while returning 21 of 22 starters from a year ago. The Auburn Tigers took their licks and should be ready to hand out some receipts this season. We also like that this game goes at 9:00 PM EST and it will be seen my millions. With the market’s propensity to play favorites, that means additional inflated points.
The Clemson Tigers were so close to capping their dream season with a national championship last January. The Tigers were not in anyone’s preseason top-10 but led by a very talented defensive unit, they nearly ran the table. Overshadowing that defensive group was a young Clemson offense that is returning all but three starters from last season. They are led by quarterback and Heisman finalist Deshaun Watson Jr. and everything about that offense is well-documented and legit. The offense is not the problem here.
The loss of most of their defense cannot be ignored after they were raided in the NFL draft. It's not going to matter if Waston Jr. and company put up 50 a game if their young patchwork D gives up 51. Clemson is now ranked #2 coming into Week 1 and that means that you will pay a premium to back them here. Despite their undefeated record a year ago, the Tigers had trouble covering games last year in a variety of scenarios and that was before the hype train started. Now Clemson will play this season with expectations high again. That removes the chip they had on their shoulders last year and it’s also a different mindset. Again, the Tigers will have to replace the majority of the defensive unit. An ideal first rehearsal doesn’t come laying more than a converted touchdown on the road against a creative offensive coach like Gus Malzahn, at this tough barn, Jordan-Hare Stadium. Watch the bottom of your screen for “upset alert”.
Harry Bondi
WESTERN MICHIGAN (+5) over Northwestern
Northwestern has the pedigree, but don’t sleep on the Broncos, who won a share of the MAC West title last year and have been predicted to do so again this season. Western Michigan has the size and depth along the offensive line to go head-to-head with a Big 10 defense. Yes, the Wildcats are coming off a 10-win season, but we think they come into this season a bit overrated since they won five of those games in 2015 by a TD or less while averaging just 19.5 points per game. Western Michigan, meanwhile, scored 36 points per game last year and has covered 10 of its last 13 games as an underdog.
Bruce Marshall
UTEP -8.5
The annual border war between UTEP and New Mexico State has featured plenty of fireworks in recent years. Most of those sparklers, however, have been fired by the Miners, who host the Aggies on Saturday at the Sun Bowl. In fact, UTEP has beaten NMSU in seven straight meetings, with a 5-0-2 spread mark in the process. The Aggies, who have not had a winning spread mark since 2011 in the DeWayne Walker era, are only 5-11 as a road underdog since the 2013 season. Meanwhile, the Miners have fared pretty well at home, with an 8-2 spread mark as host the past two years for HC Sean Kugler.
Nelly
UTEP -8.5
The Miners fell from 7-6 in 2014 to just 5-7 last year but an overtime win at New Mexico State made for seven straight wins in this series. This year’s team has a great shot to flip its record again and return to the postseason. Fresno State transfer Zack Greenlee looks like a viable quarterback and the receiving corps returns the top five receivers from last season for Sean Kugler in his fourth year with the program. New Mexico State hasn’t topped four wins in any season in the last decade as the program has struggled to gain traction even though last season’s 3-9 campaign was the best record for the team since 2011. The schedule ahead is daunting but this squad has shown offensive improvement in every season under Doug Martin. Last year the defense allowed 45 points per game but this is a big matchup after a narrow 50-47 overtime loss at home in this rivalry last season. This spread is poised to be the smallest in this series in El Paso since 1999 and while the Aggies could score they can’t justify that type of line swing.
FRANK JORDAN
LSU vs. Wisconsin
Play: LSU -13
LSU jumped out of the gates in 2015 red hot winning each of their first seven games and when the calendar flipped to November they hit a tough part of their schedule losing three in a row all by double digits. LSU finished with a win in the regular season finale and beat up on Texas Tech in the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl 56-27. Wisconsin went 10-3 last season ending the year with a National Funding Holiday Bowl victory over USC 23-21. Wisconsin went 1-2 last year against ranked teams as they take on LSU in Green Bay which should be quite pro Badgers. LSU was 5-1 against non-ranked opponents and all wins were by double digits. These two teams met to open the 2014 season in Houston and Wisconsin jumped out to a 24-7 lead shortly into the 3rd quarter before LSU made a comeback scoring the final 21 points and winning 28-24. Look for this win for LSU to go a little easier than last time as they battle it back and forth in the first half with LSU holding a 17-14 lead and then pull away in the second half outscoring them 24-10 for a 41-24 victory.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY +140 over Toronto
Our attack on Toronto’s Marco Estrada is not going to end until the season does and as long as he continues to be overpriced. The story has not changed for Estrada, as he continues to fall behind in the count while getting hit hard almost every start. When Estrada gets through innings, it is due to luck driven factors like hard hit balls being hit right at people. Estrada’s extreme fly-ball rate will likely play better at this park than others but it matters not because he’s usually good for six warning track shots a game. Marco Estarda was banished to the bullpen in July 2014, after posting a 2.3 HR/9 during the first half of the season when a 17% HR/F rate met his 50% fly-ball rate. Nothing has changed but his luck.
Blake Snell has 72 K’s in 68 innings. He too, is a risk but he throws 95 MPH heat with life while inducing 16% swings and misses. Snell is a highly touted youngster that is prone to blowups but has the talent to thrive too. That projection all came together as he blew through three levels in 2015 and is on the cusp of being a top of the rotation starter. Snell’s advanced arsenal is one worth watching and backing when warranted. The Rays are a dangerous foe that is playing for keeps against these contenders in the AL East. We guarantee you that none of these contenders, Baltimore, Toronto, Boston or New York look forward to playing these Rays and anyone that follows this game closely understands why. Huge overlay.
San Diego +249 over LOS ANGELES
Luis Perdomo has been on our radar all season long and for good reason. Perdomo is underpriced every start because of his misleading 5.84 ERA. That ERA was the result of a horrible start for Perdomo, which was the due to a high 38% hit rate, low 58% strand rate, and very high 43% hr/f more than anything else. Perdomo’s underlying skills as a starting pitcher were good then and they still are. Perdomo’s 64% groundball rate is tops in the majors among pitchers with 100 or more innings. Over his last four starts, his ERA is a sneaky 3.04 with an xERA of 3.55. The Padres won the opener last night and they have also won five of Perdomo’s past eight starts. A pitcher like Perdomo cannot be offered a tag like this one when facing Rich Hill.
Rich Hill made his Dodgers debut on August 24 but has not pitched since due to a recurring blister problem. This past week, Hill was scheduled to start twice but was a late scratch both times. In his last start versus the Giants, Hill’s swing and miss rate was down from 13% on the year to 6%. He shut out the Giants for six innings but had a mere three K’s with two of those K’s occurring against pitcher Johnny Cueto. Take those out and Hill struck out one batter through six innings. We are suggesting that Hill, who relies on a sweeping curve to get swings, is now forced to change his grip on the ball. Remember, prior to finding something last year, Rich Hill was a minor league pitcher with chronic control problems. He’s 36 years old and has spent the majority of seven of his 11 seasons as a pro in the minors. That last start, despite being a good one on paper, combined with successive scratches raises the risk on Hill. Blister problems, a likely different grip on the ball, a nine-day layoff and chronic control problems his entire career is precisely the type of pitcher we’re happy to take back 2½-1 against. This line is insane.
Vegas Butcher
Miami Marlins -110 (1st 5 Innings)
My #2 ranked starter Fernandez is going up against an inconsistent Bauer in this one. Cleveland has a strong edge offensively and in the bullpen, but taking the pen out of it and shortening this play to only 5 innings provides a strong opportunity to back one of the better pitchers in the league. I expect Fernandez to pitch very well through the first few times in the rotation, given the fact that most of these Cleveland hitters have never faced him before.
Wunderdog
Houston @ Texas
Pick: Texas +105
Houston has a losing record on the road and comes off a 10-8 loss here yesterday. The Astros are forced to go with 23-year-old rookie Joe Musgrove (4.36 ERA) as a spot starter after reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel was pushed back to Tuesday due to fatigue. Musgrove has allowed more hits than innings pitched and for the season he is 1-2 on the road with an 8.27 ERA, allowing 27 base runners in 16+ innings. The Texas Rangers are on a 44-18 run at home, including 37-14 here against a team with a winning record. Texas is strong all around, seventh in runs scored and eighth in slugging. The Rangers have won six in a row and have won 13 of the last 15 outings against the Astros this season. Rangers lefty Derek Holland is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA at home this year. The team is 33-16 when Holland faces the AL West, plus 28-13 when he has five days of rest. And the Astros are 12-39 in the last 51 meetings at Texas.