Chip Chirimbes
San Jose State vs. Tulsa
Play: San Jose State +6
This is another of those Las Vegas Odds-Makers 'Don't Make Sense' selections. Tulsa had one of the highest scoring offenses in the national last year piling up 600 yards passing in each of their first three games of the season averaging 37.2 points for the year. San Jose State lost seven of games last season but were 2nd nationally is pass defense allowing only 157 yards per contest. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Big Al
Angels vs. Mariners
Pick: Mariners
It seems that those fans expecting Taijuan Walker to break out will have to wait at least until next season. It's not that the RHP and former first round draft pick (#43 overall in 2010) has been terrible, it's just that we still haven't seen a full season of the talent that Walker displayed prior to coming to the Majors. While his 4.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are both better than last season, Walker has struggled to find consistency, and his 4-9 record - while at least partially due to poor run support - is not even close to what it should be on a playoff contending team. The Mariners desperately need Walker to find the form tonight that he had in his only two home starts of June against the Indians (eight shutout innings with 11 KOs) and Orioles (6 1/3 IP, 4 H, and just 1 ER). Angels LHP Tyler Scaggs looked like a world-beater in July when he came up from AAA, posting a 1-0 record with no runs allowed in two starts that month. But he quickly fell apart in August with a 7.23 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in five starts. L.A. just traded away one its few reliable late innings relievers (Fernando Salas), so even if Scaggs pitches well early, the bullpen could blow it for him.
Mike Rose
Kent VS. Penn St
Play: Penn St -21
James Franklin took over the reins in Happy Valley with the odds stacked against him. Though forced to deal with scholarship restrictions levied upon the program, the Nittany Lions have gone bowling each of the first two years he overlooked the program. Penn State will look to take a step closer toward making it three straight campaigns with a bowl invite in Week 1, but standing in their way of logging win No. 1 will be an experienced Kent State squad with a defense that could give the offense fits.
Penn State failed to cover two of its three non-conference home games last season as 17 point chalk against Buffalo, and as 25 point favorites against Army. It’s covered just one of its last five played non-con tussles but has gone a solid 4-1 ATS the last five times it squared off against MAC opposition. Regardless of whether Kent State has more starters returning, the talent level is at a wide margin in favor of the home team. While I’m a big fan of excellent defenses that return a bunch of starters, I can’t help but get turned off by an offense that brings little big play ability to the table.
This one will be tight and low scoring early, but the talent gap will show quickly, and once Penn State gets some separation on the scoreboard, it’ll be impossible for Kent State’s pathetic excuse for an offense to even muster a couple back door drives.
LSU vs. Wisconsin
Play: LSU -10.5
Wisconsin owned the top ranked scoring defense in 2015. The stop unit conceded just fewer than two touchdowns per game to go along with a paltry 268.5 total yards per game (No. 2). The architect of that attack just so happens to be the guy now calling the shots in Baton Rouge for the Madhatter’s defense. He knows what Wiscy likes to do on the offensive side of the ball, and that bodes well for his unit that returns 10 starters from last season.
Wiscy doesn’t bring much with it to the table offensively. Last year’s unit struggled mightily both on the ground and through the air. The surprising retirement of senior offensive linemen Dan Voltz will make life even harder for either quarterback Bart Houston or Alex Hornibrook to have much success passing the pigskin against one of the nation’s top secondaries.
LSU is extremely stout up front as well. If the defensive line is able to single-handedly shut Corey Clement and the rest of the Badgers ground attack down, Wisconsin won’t be able to move the chains, and with that, likely won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard either.
The Badgers were amongst the nation’s elite just a handful of years ago, but it’s been a steady decline ever since. They got next to nothing under center. A banged up running back that grossly underperformed last season. No wide receiver that can stretch the field and make a big play, and a defense that only returns five starters and replaced an outstanding coordinator with one that couldn’t get USC going the last few seasons. The only thing Wisconsin has going for it in this rematch with LSU is that the game is taking place near its own backyard. That likely won’t prevent the Tigers from making a statement and getting its 2016 campaign started off in the win column both SU and ATS.
Scott Spreitzer
New York at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -140
Baltimore shut out New York 8-0 last night and now the Yankees have to face Kevin Gausman again after he blanked them for seven innings on Sunday with nine strikeouts and no walks. Gausman is 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA at home and he has been lights out against the Bronx Bombers giving up just three runs in 27 2/3 innings for a 0.98 ERA this year. CC Sabathia is 8-11 with a 4.31 ERA and was the losing pitcher in the 5-0 loss against Baltimore with the same pitching matchup. In his previous game against the Orioles on July 21, Sabathia was touched for four runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings in another Yankees loss. New York has lost seven of Sabathia's last eight starts within the division. Baltimore has won Gausman's last six home starts and the Orioles are 44-24 at home.
Chase Diamond
Oklahoma vs Houston
Play: Oklahoma -12
Huge match-up week one between last years surprise team the Houston who starts off ranked #15 it's the first time in 25 years that they are pre-ranked. They face off with a team that could easily win the National Title they are that good the Oklahoma Sooners pre-ranked #3. The Sooners opened up last season with a cupcake Akron but this year they have a real road test on their hands and I expect them to be up for this one. Houston will have their secondary tested by Heisman hopeful Baker Mayfield and Houston only returns 5 starters in the secondary. Teams that won more than 90% of their games the year before have only covered 31% of their season openers in the past 35 years if they are not favored by 7 points and are not playing at home.
David Banks
Clemson @ Auburn
Pick: Clemson -8
This is a huge game for both the second-ranked Tigers and Auburn. A Clemson loss would drop head coach Dabo Swinney’s team right out of the top four and most likely ruin its chances for a College Football Playoff berth. Clemson will face a relatively weak ACC schedule but does have a showdown with current No. 4 Florida State later in the year.
Gus Malzahn and Auburn need to get out of the gate fast. A 2-6 record in the SEC just won’t cut it again and a season-opening loss is going to put the Tigers behind the proverbial eight-ball. Auburn will face Texas A&M and LSU before the month of September is over. A 1-3 start (the Tigers get Arkansas State in Week 2) will likely doom the rest of Auburn’s season and put Malzahn’s job in jeopardy.
All eyes will be on Clemson QB Deshaun Foster, a Heisman Trophy candidate who accounted for over 5,000 total yards and 47 touchdowns. Auburn cannot overlook the rest of the very talented Clemson offense though. Running back Wayne Gallman ran for 1,527 yards and 13 TDs and WR Artavis Scott returns along with 93 receptions and 901 yards.
Auburn did hire a new defensive coordinator, Kevin Steele formerly of LSU, and he will have his hands full trying to stop Watson and company. One good thing for Malzahn though is that the defense might be the strength of the Tigers this year. Malzahn will start Sean White at quarterback but will probably use juniors John Franklin III and Jeremy Johnson as he did a year ago. The Tigers need their run-based spread offense to kick into gear this season or they could be in for another long year.
Bob Balfe
West Virginia -10
Missouri comes into this game with 3 combined starts (all one guy) which is good for the least amount of starts in the nation. Drew Lock is the quarterback under center who last year only completed 39 percent of his balls when he was on the road. Three of the top four receivers from last year are gone and there is little depth behind their starting running back. =Missouri has a new coach who actually cut two of their better defensive line players because he wants a respectable team. Outstanding move on his part by sending that kind of message, but that does not win football games. West Virginia has a lot of offensive talent and are a balanced attack that can hit the home run ball on any play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ilir Latifi +180 over Ryan Bader
Ryan Bader deserves to be favored in this fight. He has fought the best of the light heavyweight division since he KO'd Keith Jardine in 2010. His resume includes fights vs. Tito Ortiz, Jon Jones, Little Nog, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Glover Texeira, Ovince St. Preux, Rashad Evans, and Rumble Johnson. This may be one of the most impressive assortments of opponents for someone that has never held the championship belt. Compiling a 21-5 professional MMA record, 'Darth' Bader has been an absolute rock in the top-10 for most of his UFC career. In his past six fights, Bader has gone 5-1 with all of his wins coming by decision. He is a division I All American wrestler, and has been very successful utilizing takedowns to gain top control and grind frustratingly boring victories ever since his last knockout over some guy named Jason Brilz in 2011. Bader is an intelligent fighter, who knows how to keep out of danger and grapple his way to victory, however, when he his hit by a power puncher, history shows, that he doesn't have the chin to survive.
In February of 2016, Bader was pitted against Anthony Johnson and this fight was over before it began. Bader was rocked quickly and then ground and pounded to a TKO loss. In 2013, Bader fought Glover Texeira and was caught with a punch, and following a brief scramble, he was awarded a TKO loss. In the 2012 Bader vs. Machida, fight, Machida would catch Bader early in the second round and Bader would lose by TKO. The track record for Bader vs. power punchers comes with mixed results, as he was able to survive and grapple with OSP and defeat an old and tired Rashad Evans but his last three results may show that Bader's intense fight schedule over the past 10 years is starting to slow him down as well as the devastating knockout suffered earlier this year.
Ilir Latifi has begun his ascension up the light heavyweight ladder. In his first bout at 205lbs, Latifi was caught early in round one vs. Jan Blachowicz and knocked out. This was the only time Latifi had been knocked out since 2009, and showed his vulnerability vs. weight class at first glance but Latifi has reeled off three straight victories while looking very impressive in each. Following two first round knockouts vs. middling MMA veterans Hans Stringer, and Sean O'Connell, many believed that Latifi would continue this path of destruction at UFC 196 vs. Gian Villante. In what would be as surprising a result as Tate defeating Holly Holm, or maybe McGregor losing to Diaz, there was no knockout to be seen in the Villante/Latifi matchup. Instead, Latifi displayed his well roundedness, earning takedowns in rounds two and three and showing the division he wasn't just a free swinging KO fighter. On his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision win, Latifi was slotted into the rankings, and is now taking on a perennial top-10 fighter in Bader.
Bader has one way to win this fight and that is to out-wrestle Latifi. Currently, through 11 rounds of UFC fights, Latifi has yet to be taken down, sporting a perfect 100% takedown defense. Obviously Bader is a different animal than any fighter that Latifi has faced, but the fact remains, we don't know if Bader will have success, and if he misses on a takedown, his chin will be exposed in close vs. a very powerful puncher. The other unknown here is the state of Bader's head following his latest surge up the rankings that culminated in a devastating one-minute KO loss. While the physical toll is to be considered as well, the mental toll on getting five straight decision wins and being very close to a title shot just to have it shattered in such a quick fashion can be demoralizing and break a fighters confidence.
This line is suggesting Bader will perform the 'Dump and Hump' each round and bore the fans to death with a three-round decision win but there is so much risk with this fighter with a couple notable unknowns in this matchup. With Latifi looking to continue his wave of momentum into the top-10 and with what has to be considered damn close to a 50/50 proposition, receiving a near 2-1 tag makes this risk absolutely worth the reward.
Andrei Arlovski +136 over J. Barnett
The main event on this weekend’s card will feature two aging veteran heavyweights and if history shows us anything, a match between these two types should be a coin flip. Both men are well past their prime, are less powerful, less agile, and can survive much less damage. This fight most likely won't springboard anyone into contention but Alovski may get another top contender opportunity if he is able to cease the opportunity in Hamburg.
Perception is a heck of a thing. Entering this main event, Andrei Arlovski has been lit up viciously in his past two fights, suffering KO losses in each. What sticks out is that he was seen as a title contender just one year ago and now has slid down the rankings. The market is now believing that this could be it for the Pitbull. Fact is, the two opponents that knocked him out received immediate title shots and the first of which is the current heavyweight champion. Stipe Miocic and Allistar Overeem are now the top two dogs in the division and they both used Arlovski as a springboard into their pinnacle.
Since reentering the UFC in 2013, Josh Barnett has gone 2-2, posting wins vs. two fighters that are either done fighting completely, or on their last leg. Barnett’s win over Frank Mir in 2013 was a roaring return, as all the hype surrounding the 'Warmaster' Barnett, was realized early in the first round, earning the KO. The win over Roy Nelson in 2015, was a five-round decision win that earned him performance of the night honors. What we have seen from Nelson in the past few years has been less than impressive, as he is continually stacking up losses, and has clearly lost the sting out of his punches. Barnett's two losses have been to more talented competition, but his opponents are nowhere near the caliber than that of Arlovski's previous two. Being defeated by Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne inside the distance doesn't look too bad on paper, but neither has been very threatening to the top of the division, even though they have been close.
Arlovski presents a difficult matchup for Barnett. Andrei's speed and counterpunch ability will allow him to maintain distance and avoid the clinch for the most part. The grappling ability of Arlovski will neutralize Barnett's biggest strength in his two most recent UFC wins. Overall, Arlovski may get KO'd, and recent results have made many believe that it is the most likely outcome but to compare Josh Barnett with Champion Stipe Miocic or current Title Challenger Allistar Overeem is an absolute crime. These two have an equal shot at KO'ing one another, and the fact remains that Arovski's speed and pedigree greatly outweigh Barnett's while his grappling ability should keep Barnett from laying on him for five rounds. Dare we say it....wrong fighter favored, and once again, the value is on the underdog in the UFC's main event this weekend
Will Rogers
Angels vs. Mariners
Pick: Mariners
The Mariners snapped the Angels winning streak last night, breaking their own losing streak at the same time. Momentum shifted, Seattle, now 13-8 its last 21 against losing teams, should make it two in a row tonight. The Mariners are decent at home, going 37-28. LA is brutal on the road, at 27-42.
Stephen Nover
Padres vs. Dodgers
Play: Padres +255
Rich Hill has turned into a great pitcher. But tell me, do you care to lay nearly 3-to-1 in this game when Hill might get pulled after one pitch due to his persistent blister problems?
I doubt that happens. Still, Hill has thrown more than five pitches in a game just once since July 7. He was scratched from his last start this past Tuesday against the Rockies due to a rain delay and tenderness from a blister on his pitching hand.
There is far more injury risk backing Hill than any other pitcher. Because of this outrageous price and my belief San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is underrated, I'm going to throw a token on the Padres.
Perdomo is a promising rookie whose strength is keeping the ball on the ground. He has the highest ground ball rate in the National League and is off two impressive outings holding the Diamondbacks and Marlins to a combined one run on 11 hits in 16 innings.
San Diego is a .500 road club. The Padres rank 13th in runs scored on the road compared to rating 23rd in runs scored at home. Hill is 0-3 lifetime against the Padres with an 8.16 ERA in three career starts.
Martin Griffiths
LA Galaxy vs. Columbus Crew
Play: LA Galaxy -129
La have not been the most reliable team in recent weeks, they have been drawing games they should have won, however, I am confident that they will get back to winning ways this evening against Columbus.
Galaxy have not lost a single game at home in the MLS all season, but they are not dominant either, they have drawn more times at home than they have won with seven games ending in stalemate, for some reason they are finding it difficult to put teams away at home.
That said, they are unbeaten on their home patch and are up against a poor Columbus outfit, a side that has won just once in 13 away games in the MLS this season and that was their most recent game on the road, prior to that it was 12 away games without a single win.
In fact, Columbus have lost no less than ten of their road trips, that is rather an impressive losing streak, 10 from 13.
They have managed just two draws on the road this season and even though they are away to draw happy LA, it is an uphill task for them without a doubt.
I accept that LA have issues with draws at home, but they are playing a team that rarely gets points, never mind draws when travelling and I cannot see anything other than a home win this evening, there is simply not enough about Columbus to have any confidence in them to take anything away from LA this evening.
All things considered I am going for a comfortable home win here.
Dave Price
Arizona +2.5
The Arizona Wildcats are bounce-back candidates this season. They won the Pac-12 South in 2014 and finished 10-4, but fell to just 7-6 last year. Now Rich Rodriquez has one of his best teams yet with 15 starters and 53 lettermen returning. There's no way the Wildcats should be underdogs to the BYU Cougars today, especially since this really isn't a neutral field as it's played at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. BYU is going through a coaching change this season and it will be an adjustment with the loss of Bronco Mendenhall. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12 opponents.
Chris Jordan
My early free pick is on the Michigan Wolverines.
And I'm not getting long-winded on this one for you, I'm keeping this early kickoff simple, because it's real easy: powerhouse versus a tired football team.
Hawai'i has a game under its belt, yes. But that game was in Sydney, Australia, where they lost by 20 to the Cal Golden Bears. The Rainbow Warriors went back to campus before traveling from Honolulu to Ann Arbor for this game against Michigan.
By the time the Warriors get home, they will have traveled roughly 20,000 miles and been in airplanes for about 40 hours for just two games over eight days. And oh yes, it'll be 6 a.m. in Honolulu when this game kicks off.
That's it. That's my analysis. Hawai'i will not have any legs by the second half. Michigan rolls.
5* MICHIGAN
My free pick is on Nick Chubb.
Okay, so you don't know who that is, right? Georgia's star running back is going to be the key to the Bulldogs' success this season, and this is a big game for him. Huge!
Chubb will share running back duties with Brendan Douglas, after recovering from a knee injury. I don't expect this kid to be on a pitch count, if you know what I mean, as he used several methods to recover in time for this game, including physical therapy, plyometrics and martial arts.
Chubb was the main man for the Bulldogs offense last season, rushing for 747 yards and seven touchdowns during Georgia's first six games. On the first play against Tennessee, a filthy knee injury sidelined him for the season.
I know the Tar Heels have something to prove in this season lid-lifter, but Chubb and the Bulldogs have just as much to prove in Kirby Smart's coaching debut. A win today restores confidence in this program.
Lay the chalk with the Dawgs.
1* GEORGIA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks as the road dog in Iowa City on Saturday afternoon.
When last we saw Kirk Ferentz' Hawkeyes, they were busy being used to mop up the grass in Pasadena, as Stanford routed them 45-16 on New Year's Day. Not saying that will happen at Kinnick Stadium against MAC rep Miami-Ohio, but I am saying the Hawkeyes are laying a few points too many to cover.
Iowa went just 1-5 last season as the home favorite, and they are a money-burning 6-15 in that role since the 2012 campaign.
The Red Hawks ended last season with straight up wins in 2 of their final 3, and Chuck Martin's team did cover 4 of their last 5 to close the year in 2015. Miami-O stands at 8-4 the past 2 seasons when catching points too.
Iowa does have their annual battle with Iowa State up next, so I can easily see them doing enough to win this one, but leave the back door wide open for a Red Hawks money grab against the spread.
Take the generous points.
2* MIAMI OHIO
Your Saturday freebie is Southern Miss plus the points at Kentucky.
Talk about an interesting "intangible", this game qualifies!
The 3 year era of Todd Monken is over in Hattiesburg, and now it is Jay Hopson's turn at the helm for Southern Mississippi. Hopson was the Alcorn State head coach the past 4 seasons, but had previously worked as the D.C. at Southern Miss in his 24 year coaching career.
The Golden Eagles has plenty of retuning talent on both sides of the football. The "intangible" is Hopson brought in former Kentucky offensive coordinator Shane Dawson who was fired by UK coach Mark Stoops at the end of last season. You know darn well that Dawson would love to shove it where the sun don't shine on Kentucky today, and he does have a senior quarterback Nick Mullens who was the Conference USA Play of the Year last season.
Mark Stoops is on the "hot seat" in Lexington, and a slow start to the season will turn the heat up just a notch.
Maybe Kentucky eeks this one out, but I don't see this game being decided by more than a field goal.
Grab the Golden Eagles plus the points.
1* SOUTHERN MISS
Anthony Redd
Let's take a look at the UCLA Bruins for today's free pick. They visit Texas A&M, and I like the Pac 12 team to go in and steal this one. Talk about a joke, the Aggies shouldn't be giving the points in this one. I think these books are stunod with this point spread.
UCLA has that high power offense. And the defense for this team should be familiar with Texas A&M's offensive set up since they have UCLA's old offensive coordinator. The Bruins will have something to prove.
And in case you didn't know, UCLA coach Jim Mora has never lost a season opener at UCLA. He is also 12-0 in regular-season nonconference contests. That's pretty good, right?
Take the underdog.
1* UCLA