Sam Martin
Rutgers vs Washington
Play: Washington -26½
We expect big things from Washington this season, and we are not afraid to lay this big number in their season opener at home against Rutgers. Scarlet Knights new head coach Chris Ash has his work cut out for him, and while he does return a decent amount of starters, this is still a team that went just 4-8 last year while allowing 35 ppg. On the road, their defense was even worse, allowing nearly 40 ppg, and we don't expect much of an improvement in this matchup. Tough spot for Rutgers to go across the country and face one of the premier teams in the Pac 12 - especially a good defensive team like Washington who game up just 19 ppg last season and 17 ppg here at home. Huskies pull away in the second half and win this one in a blowout!
Wunderdog
Kent State @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State -20
The Penn State Nittany Lions always seem to have a very good defense, it is what they get out of their offense that typically determines how far they rise. They have a good man in Joe Moorhead that came over from Fordham that had the Ram's offense clicking. Add in the fact that the young front five for Penn State has gotten a year's experience under their belt, and could be a whole lot better this season. Saquon Barkley may benefit the most, as he eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground with an inexperienced front line. I'm surprised Paul Haynes has survived at Kent State with just nine wins in his first three years. He is surely on the hot seat to get something done. The good news is that he has nine starters back on offense, but the bad news is that group ranked #124 last season. The defense should be strong, but this is a club that is not built to play in the Big-10, and as good as the defense was last year they lost their opener 52-3 to Illinois. The history is perhaps very telling as the Golden Flashes are 0-13 SU vs. the Big-10 and 3-10 ATS, and have scored a grand total of one TD in their last seven vs. the Big-10, and have been out-scored 278-13! That is not a typo, 278-13! Enough said, the Nittany Lions roll, so play on Penn State.
Allen Eastman
Louisiana Tech (+26) over Arkansas
I like this underdog here down at Razorback Stadium. Louisiana Tech is a very sound team under coach Skip Holtz. They have won nine games in each of the past two years, and this is a group that nearly won outright at Kansas State last year. Tech has gone 4-1 ATS in its last five games against teams from a major conference. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS against teams from the SEC and 6-1 ATS in nonconference games. Louisiana Tech is 23-11 ATS on the road. Arkansas hasn't been great in the role of a big favorite under Bret Bielema. Last year they lost outright to Toledo as a 21-point favorite and went 1-1 ATS against UTEP and UT-Martin. The Razorbacks also went just 1-2 ATS again in their easy nonconference games in Bielema's first season in 2013. Arkansas has a bigger game at TCU next week, and I am sure that they are looking well past Tech and ahead to that game against the No. 13 team in the country.
Alan Harris
Rutgers vs. Washington
Play: Under 54.5
Two teams that have trended to the under in the spot they are in here will meet when the Rutgers Scarlet Knights head west to take on the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA on Saturday afternoon. Rutgers has posted a 5-2 record to the under in their last seven games played in the month of September, and they have that same 5-2 record to the under in their last seven nonconference games. The Huskies have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have posted a 6-1 record to the under in their last seven games played in the month of September, and they have stayed under the total in five of their last seven nonconference games. Throw in the fact that the Huskies have gone a lights out 21-9 to the under in their last 30 home games and the fact that Rutgers is going to have trouble moving the ball and putting points on the board just as they did last season.
Raphael Esparza
Hawaii at Michigan
Play: Over 54.5
If you watched the Hawaii game last Friday night you saw that the Hawaii Warriors defense is not that good and their offense can move the ball. Hawaii lost to California 51-31, and the 'Over' was easy cash. On Saturday afternoon at Michigan the 'Over' again will be easy cash. The Michigan Wolverines can maybe hit the 'Over' by themselves as I see big numbers coming out of Ann Arbor, and the run game of Michigan should have a field day against the Hawaii defense. I do see the Warriors offense moving the ball against Michigan's defense, and wouldn't shock me to see Hawaii score more then 2 touchdowns Saturday early afternoon. Was a bit shocked that this total was 54.5 as I pegged this total around 56 and what I saw Friday night Michigan will score at home against the Warriors. In Hawaii's last 6 games all 6 of them have gone over, and for Michigan in the last 4 home games all 4 of them have gone over. Bet this over now because I see the public betting this total all weekend long before kickoff.
Jason Sharpe
Michigan (-40.5) over Hawaii
I rarely even look at games that are lined this high but value is value and that's what we have here with the Michigan Wolverines at this price. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will have his Michigan team ready to go here in the season opener. Harbaugh is a fantastic coach who when given lots of time to prepare for a game can be very tough to beat as evidenced by the Wolverines 41-7 bowl victory last year over the Florida Gators. Michigan is stacked with lots of NFL talent on their roster, and many of those guys have a lot of experience as well. The Wolverines have two equally as good quarterbacks who are battling for the current starting job, and you can expect that the backup here in this one will also be given a good chance to throw the football and add points to what should be a solid day from the Michigan offense here. The biggest story, though, in this one is the horrific scheduling spot that Hawaii faces in this game. The Rainbows traveled last week 5,000 miles to Australia to open their season against the California Bears, losing by a 51-31 score. They then head another 4,400 miles this week to play a fresh Michigan squad who've spent a lot more time than normal preparing for Hawaii in this one. It doesn't get much worse than this for a CFB team over a back-to-back stretch of road games. I can't imagine the Rainbow coaches have placed a lot of time preparing their team for this one as it looks likely that this game is more about them getting their huge payday from playing this one at Michigan's 'Big House'. Take Michigan minus the points here.
Tony George
Southern Miss vs. Kentucky
Play: Southern Miss +7
The CFB kicked off last week with a game that landed right on the Las Vegas Line, Cal winning by 20 over Hawaii. There are games Thursday through Monday this week, so buckle the chinstraps and let’s talk some action. This weekend I have a match-up I feel the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have not given enough credit to the underdog, and that team is Southern Miss. With 14 starters back, this is a team that again will contend for a conference championship, as they lost last year to a good Western Kentucky team in the title game in a shootout. Yes, it is SEC versus a mid-major conference, but this is not Wildcat Basketball, it is Wildcat Football and Mark Stoops is on the hot seat at Kentucky.
Southern Miss is a solid veteran team, and QB Nick Mullens (38 TD passes in 2015) is a flat out stud with 14 starters back from a conference division winning team. His offensive coordinator ironically is Shane Dawson, who Mark Stoops at Kentucky fired last year, and no doubt has some motivation to beat Stoops and knows the Kentucky team inside and out, and that is an advantage! Jay Hopsen, former So. Miss Defensive Coordinator takes over the reins at head coach at Southern Miss, and word is the transition has been seamless and Southern Miss is a well-conditioned team with experience, a rock solid RB in Ito Smith who gained over 1100 yards last year, and averaged 6.6 yards per carry.
The setup here is a veteran team with massive offensive potential on the ground and through the air catching big points, and that is always worth a long look. Add in the fact their QB Mullens is better than Kentucky’s Drew Barker, and the fact this is a young Kentucky team that will start on the OL and DL, 7 Freshman or Sophomores, and you have a perfect storm brewing Lexington this Saturday and the Golden Eagles will no doubt provide a very stiff challenge for Kentucky, even on the road.
I will not come out and say Southern Miss can upset the Kentucky Wildcats, but catching almost a TD on the Las Vegas Line is more than sufficient reason to grab the points and the underdog in this game. A Southern Miss win would not surprise me one bit.
Matt Josephs
Georgia Tech vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College +3
The ACC opener for Georgia Tech and Boston College takes place in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday morning. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 last year and it was mostly because of a poor defense that struggled at times. On the offensive side, the triple option got bogged down at times. In 2016, Justin Thomas is back to run things. This is the first time the Jackets open up with a FBS opponent since 2012 when they lost in overtime to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Boston College also went 3-9 last year, but you can point to their offense for that reason. The Eagles had the #1 defense in football in 2015, but lost Don Brown to Michigan. The good thing is that seven starters are back defensively. Hopefully Patrick Towles coming over from Kentucky can help jump start this offense and give Jon Hilliman a little room. There are a lot of reasons to stay away from this one especially since it's being played overseas. I really like giving a good defensive unit plenty of time to prepare for the triple option of Georgia Tech. I think the Eagles can get the win on Saturday and start their season off 1-0.
Michael Alexander
UCLA vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -3
This game looks to be a nice pick for Texas A&M, who have been starting off their season quickly recently. They have won by 52, 52, and 38 points in their opening games the past 3 years, covering the last 2 by 33 and 18 points. Last years QB Allen who had 17 touchdowns with 7 interceptions is gone, but they are now led by former Oklahoma QB Knight, who should be able to do well as he has a veteran receiving corp to help him. The Bruins are currently 10-17 ATS their last 27 contesst and gave up 30 points or more 7 times last year. They do have a returning QB of their own (Rosen) but he lost 5 offensive linemen.
Ricky Tran
Western Michigan vs. Northwestern
Play: Under 52
The Northwestern Wildcats look for another great year after winning 10 games last season.Clayton Thorson returns at quarterback after throwing for 1,500 yards and seven touchdowns Their ground game averaged 188 yards a game led by Jackson with 1418 yards and 5 TD's. Defensively, Northwestern allowed 18.6 points and 318 yards per game. The Wildcat's defense finished 13th overall, was a brick wall against the run, and was third in the nation in pass efficiency defense. Their key is to stop the run because that is when the defense plays its best. Western Michigan returns a QB and a RB and 4 starters on the offensive line. But they were only good enough to win games in their own conference and even there lost to the better teams and 3 of their 5 losses were on the road. This is too big a step up for them. The Wildcats have seen fewer than 52 totals points in eight of their last 10 games.
Teddy Covers
Oklahoma vs. Houston
Play: Over 67½
Teddy is a long term proven winner in college football. He opened up the 2015 season with six straight winning weeks for himself and his clients, and finished the season with a 61% mark counting every play, every day. He’s primed to do more of the same in 2016 starting right here in Week 1! Don’t miss a single winner – get onboard RIGHT NOW and start cashing in!
My initial gut reaction here was to take a long, hard look at taking Houston plus the points. The Cougars were no joke last year, finishing the season 13-1 following a resounding win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Their lone loss came by a field goal on a cold, rainy November day at Connecticut when QB Greg Ward was sidelined for most of the game.
But after a thorough examination of the Houston defense, I think the Over is the superior play. Houston is capable of putting points on the scoreboard, even against a quality defense like Oklahoma’s. Head Coach Tom Hermann, who signed a contract extension to stay at Houston in the offseason, is the guy who designed an offense for third string QB Cardale Jones to hang 42 on Alabama and 42 more on Oregon when Ohio State pulled off back-2-back upsets to win the National Title back in 2014. Last year, he took an unknown, unheralded former wide receiver in Greg Ward, and turned him into the second team All-AAC quarterback, behind only NFL first rounder Paxton Lynch. Give Hermann time – like he had all summer – and he’ll design a gameplan worthy of a wager, especially given the strong skill position talent surrounding his senior quarterback.
But Houston’s stop unit is another story entirely. Their secondary is as green as it gets, after losing a pair of All-AAC safeties to graduation as well as NFL first rounder William Jackson at cornerback. Given the question marks surrounding their pass rush, the matchup of Oklahoma’s receiving corps against Houston’s inexperienced secondary is not a matchup that I trust to work in the Cougars favor.
Oklahoma was a good defensive team last year, not a great one – the better offenses they faced moved the ball fairly consistently against this stop unit. In the offseason, the Sooners lost NFL draft choices from all three defensive units, and their front seven, in particular, has some rebuilding to do.
But the Sooners offense is no joke, led by senior Heisman Trophy contender Baker Mayfield, who earned the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year award in 2015, throwing for 36 TD’s and more than 3700 yards. RB Samaje Perine will be running behind an offensive line that started three freshmen last year; a unit primed to improve by leaps and bounds this year. And considering that Oklahoma averaged 43.5 points per game last year DESPITE that green offensive line, I’d be very surprised if they didn’t approach or exceed that average in their opener against the Cougs.
Andrew Lange
BYU / Arizona Under 60.5
Major changes going on at BYU with longtime head coach Bronco Mendenhall headed to Virginia and former Oregon State DC Kalani Sitake handed the reigns. Also new will be offensive coordinator TY Detmer who takes over for Robert Anae who followed Mendenhall to Charlottesville. Detmer has never coached at the collegiate level and plans to implement a more pro style approach compared to the spread, up-tempo attack ran under Anae. The move is interesting because it doesn't necessarily fit the skill set of veteran quarterback Taysom Hill who as we all know is ultra-dangerous using his feet. However, it may give Hill a better chance to stay healthy after missing time due to injury each of the last two seasons. Either way, the plan is to be more deliberate as stated by backup quarterback Koy Detmer Jr.
“Last year, we were trying to go real fast and catch the defense off-guard, trying to score a lot of points and get a lot of plays,” said backup quarterback Koy Detmer Jr. “This year, we’re going to slow it down. We’re going to try to execute on each play more. With this offense, we’re going to try to put the defense in positions we want them to be in so we can get the look we want to run a play to get a good result. There’s a lot more manipulation. Ty’s going to be a mastermind up there calling plays. Ty will call a play and we look at our wristbands. No more crazy signs on the sidelines. It will be huddle up and go.”
On the flip side, Arizona isn't looking to slow down its pace. With quarterback Anu Solomon and running back Nick Wilson back, the offense is expected to put points on the board. But I look for big improvements on the defensive side of the ball from the Wildcats. Last year, thanks to a litany of injuries, Arizona allowed 6.29 ypp and 484.6 ypg in PAC-12 play. Head coach Rich Rodriguez went out and hired former Boise State DC Marcel Yates. He inherits a relatively "green" stop unit but one that is healthy and coupled with his "havoc" style of play should yield better results in 2016.
This is a game that will likely feature plenty of yards and points but I think with BYU's new offensive mentality and Arizona's fresh start on defense, there's far more potential for stops than had these two teams met up last season. The number has crept down some but I'd still look under at 60.5.
Ian Cameron
San Jose St at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -5
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane enter the second year of the Philip Montgomery regime and I think this team is poised for improvement following a 6-7 campaign. This program was a disaster area during Bill Blankenship’s tenure but Montgomery, in just his first year on the job, took the team from 2-10 to a bowl game berth. Senior quarterback Dane Evans is back to lead what should be a very good offense. Evans posted a 63% completion rate with 25 TDs and just 8 INTs and should be even better in 2016. The offensive line has four returning starters and they have plenty of playmakers at the skill positions to put up points in bunches. Tulsa is in need of improvement on defense which was their biggest issue last season. They return seven starters including four of their top five tacklers. The Golden Hurricane will no doubt be better against the run after getting carved up for 240 ypg. The d-line returns three starters and everyone starting along that unit is either a junior or senior. The linebacker corps has increased depth and experience and the secondary has six of its top eight returning.
San Jose State comes off a 5-7 season as they enter their fourth with Ron Carragher as head coach. They should have a competitive outfit in the Mountain West but I do have some concerns as they play their first game of the season on the road. I normally don’t overreact to running back departures but the loss of Tyler Ervin from last year’s squad is a big one. He was everything to the San Jose State offense and broke the school’s single season rushing record. Also note the ineligibility of senior receiver Tyler Winston due to academic reasons. Both players had a huge impact on the offense. Quarterback Kenny Potter looks to be a solid one and has dual threat capabilities but the defense could be an early season concern for the Spartans. They break in a new DC in former Eastern Michigan head coach Ron English. Even though the system is expected to remain largely unchanged (4-3 defensive scheme), there still could be a bit of an early season learning curve for that group. San Jose State looks weakest in the secondary and that is not where you want to be weak going up against Dane Evans and a strong Tulsa aerial attack. San Jose State lost a pair of their best corners from last season’s second ranked pass defense with Cleveland Wallace and Jimmy Pruitt departing. San Jose State started slowly last season and dropped each of their two September road games against Air Force and Oregon State; losing by 14+ points in both games. This is a reasonable price to lay with Tulsa (from the superior conference) at less than a touchdown at home.
Mike Rose
Kent at Penn State
Play: Penn St -21
James Franklin took over the reins in Happy Valley with the odds stacked against him. Though forced to deal with scholarship restrictions levied upon the program, the Nittany Lions have gone bowling each of the first two years he overlooked the program. Penn State will look to take a step closer toward making it three straight campaigns with a bowl invite in Week 1, but standing in their way of logging win No. 1 will be an experienced Kent State squad with a defense that could give the offense fits.
Penn State failed to cover two of its three non-conference home games last season as 17 point chalkS against Buffalo, and as 25 point favorites against Army. It’s covered just one of its last five played non-con tussles but has gone a solid 4-1 ATS the last five times it squared off against MAC opposition. Regardless of whether Kent State has more starters returning, the talent level is at a wide margin in favor of the home team. While I’m a big fan of excellent defenses that return a bunch of starters, I can’t help but get turned off by an offense that brings little big play ability to the table.
This one will be tight and low scoring early, but the talent gap will show quickly, and once Penn State gets some separation on the scoreboard, it’ll be impossible for Kent State’s pathetic excuse for an offense to even muster a couple back door drives.
Marc Lawrence
Oklahoma vs Houston
Pick: Houston
Edges - Cougars: 5-0 ATS as dogs of 8 or more points; and 3-0 ATS home versus Big 12 opponents. Sooners: 3-7 ATS in season opening games. With the Cougars having lost only ONE of their last 38 games by more than 8 points, we recommend a 1* play on Houston.