Eric Schroeder
Now that LeBron James has made it known who he thinks should be in the New York Knicks backcourt, it's his time to go and show them why. I don't care who plays what, and if the Cleveland Cavaliers are having a sluggish start to the season, King James is not going to go into Madison Square Garden and play a half-ass game.
The Cavaliers, who have covered five of the last six meetings, are going to roast the unmatched Knicks.
Sure, the Knicks have a better record. I don't care. I have the best player in the world stepping on the biggest basketball court in the world, and everyone knows the best players shine in the Mecca.
Cleveland has a more productive offense, and is even averaging 113 points on the road. Over their last five games, the Cavaliers are averaging 118.6 points per contest. They've had a day to rest, and coming off one day's rest this season, the Cavs sport a 4-1 ATS mark.
Lay the points here, as James will back up his words and trounce the Knicks.
1* CAVALIERS
Joey Juice
The Cavaliers head to Madison Square Garden with revenge in mind.
The Knicks are still a one-trick pony, and that pony is 7 foot 3 Kristaps Porzingis.
However it doesn't matter how many purple rainbows and unicorns show up at the Garden tonight, you can't deny the value in laying a few points with the Cavaliers against an empty shell of a team like the Knicks.
Too many stars, too many weapons, too many guns. Add to that the fact that Cleveland is actually playing for something, wanting to prove that the Knicks beating them in Cleveland was nothing more than a fluke, and you have all the makings of a double-digit blow out for Cleveland.
Cavs are the free play.
3* CLEVELAND
Jack Brayman
On the heels of telling you Miami, Florida would trounce Notre Dame, and the San Francisco 49ers would take care of the New York Giants, I'll take the road underdog in the NBA tonight, as I like the Los Angeles Lakers against the Phoenix Suns as my free play.
I'm on a 13-4 Winning Run with my complimentary winners, and I think the Lakers are in a great spot to improve that record to 14-4 for me and my players.
I'm intrigued by this one, with Lonzo Ball stepping to the wood on the heels of his first career triple-double. I believe we're about to see Ball have a nice run for one reason: his father's absence.
With much of the spotlight on LiAngelo Ball, and his shoplifting ordeal in China, loud mouth LaVar is busy with trying to keep his middle son out of a Chinese clink. That allows Lonzo to do what he does best, without a bunch of distracting chatter.
I also like rookie forward Kyle Kuzma, who added 21 points, against Milwaukee, during Ball's career night.
I'm a big fan of Phoenix's Devin Booker, but the Suns are mired in ATS slides of 1-4 against intra-division foes, 3-113 against losing teams and 1-5 overall.
Los Angeles will take full advantage of a scoring defense that is allowing 115.1 points per home game, and 114.8 points in its last five. Phoenix is simply a bad team on defense.
Lakers aim for the outright win.
4* LAKERS
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Portland Trail Blazers, laying a small number against the Denver Nuggets.
Portland is going to take advantage of Denver's road defense, which allows 108.6 points per contest. And since the Nuggets haven't been on the road since Oct. 30 - yes, this is their first road game in November - this could be a tough trip for Denver.
Portland, meanwhile, has played four in a row at home, and will be geared up to snap a two-game skid, after losses to Memphis last Tuesday and Brooklyn on Friday.
Sure, the Nuggets have the better record, but they're also 2-3 on the road. And while Portland surprisingly is mired in an abysmal 1-7 ATS skid, it also has covered eight of 10 against Northwest foes.
Take the home team here.
3* TRAIL BLAZERS
Brandon Lee
Montana vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Montana +4
I played against Pitt in their opener against Navy, where they fell 62-71 as a 4-point dog. A big reason I liked the Midshipmen is they were the much more experienced team. Navy returned 4 starters from last year, while Pitt lost all 5 starters and only returned 3 players, one of which was a walk-on. The offense that was dreadful a season ago wasn't any better against the Midshipmen, scoring just 62 points and starting out the second half 5 of 20 over the first 13 minutes.
I see a very similar scenario here for Pitt against another experienced mid-major program in Montana. The Grizzlies return 4 starters and a lot of that experience comes at guard, where they have a trio of great shooters and ball handlers in Ahmaad Rorie, Michael Oguine and Sayeed Pridgett. Montana also added some size that they were lacking a year ago. I'll take the points, but I expect the short road dog to win outright.
John Martin
Sacramento at Washington
Play: Washington -10½
The Washington Wizards are rolling having won three of their last four games all by 11 points or more. I think that trend continues here tonight as they don't get much resistance from the Sacramento Kings. This is a Kings team that is 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 13.6 points per game on average. The Wizards already won 110-83 in Sacramento earlier this season on October 29th. The Kings are legitimately one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, while the Wizards are one of the better squads. Look for that to play out on the court again tonight.
Chip Chirimbes
Wolves vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz +4
These young T-wolves must learn that the have to pay defense on the road where they allow opponents 22 points more per game then they do at home. Utah is 6-3 at home both straight-up and ATS but lost here to Minnesota by 27 points last season the largest margin of any win by anybody in this series and posted a 100-97 win three weeks ago at Target Center.
Teddy Davis
Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Play: Under 219
I know the Cavs have been Over machines here lately, but I think this line is definitely inflated. These two teams have already met and the total was 212.5. The game actually stayed under and the two teams combined to hit 23 3's.
So with the Cavs losing the first meeting I think we see a pretty big effort here especially from LeBron who as we all all know loves to play in the Garden. Neither team is a a legit threat from the outside the fact like I mentioned they hit 23 and still went under the first meeting. I think this easily stays under here as well.
Doc's Sports
76ers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -2
The Clippers have lost five straight. It’s too early in the season to really say any game is a “must win” but LA really has to get back on track here. They have had a real tough schedule lately and this is their lone home game before they go back on the road, and they play at Cleveland next game so they really need a win here big time. Lose another couple games and it might be time for heads to roll here in LA after a promising start to the season. The Sixers have covered only three of the last 11 meetings in this series and they are on a 1-4 ATS slide when these teams play in LA. The Sixers aren’t in top form right now as they have lost two straight both SU and ATS. We think the Clips get a much-needed win here at home and it should be comfortable enough to cover this over adjusted small number.
Ray Monohan
Grizzlies vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -3½
The Bucks lay a small number, at home, giving them value in this spot.
The Grizzlies are seeing their top guys really struggle right now. Mike Conley, who this team leans on, has struggled to really get things going as of late.
Conley has shot under 40% on the season and comes in off a performance where he shot just 4 of 11.
Milwaukee has found a solid 1-2 punch with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe, as the duo has become one of the more threatening ones in the NBA. From scoring to rebounding and defense, they have really lit a spark underneath the Bucks here.
Some trends to note. Grizzlies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Milwaukee has been playing extremely well and is worth a move here.
Dave Price
Nuggets vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers +1
It's not often you'll get the chance to back the Portland Trail Blazers as an underdog. But after two straight home losses to Memphis and Brooklyn by a combined 5 points, this team is now undervalued. I like the price we are getting with them here, especially with Jusuf Nurkic out for revenge on his former team after the Nuggets traded him away last year. He had a monster game in his only game with the Blazers against the Nuggets last year in their 122-113 home victory as 2-point favorites. He had 33 points and 15 boards to lead the way. The score isn't settled yet, and I expect Nurkic to outplay Jokic tonight. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Joe DelPopolo
Wolves vs. Jazz
Play: Wolves
Based on my Stat-Key Power Raking system and predictive math-model the T-Wolves should get the money in this one. I wouldn't go too big on this as Utah is a really good team at home especially when getting points. The T-Wolves are hot right now so we will ride the hot team.
Jack Jones
76ers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -2
This is the time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory after going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. I look for them to get the job done as only 2-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.
It's also time to 'sell high' on the 76ers tonight, who are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The 76ers are in the midst of a tough five-game road trip and will be playing their fourth game on that trip tonight. They will have a hard time getting up for this game after facing the Warriors on Saturday.
The Clippers have owned the 76ers, going 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. They basically just have to win this game to cover tonight. I think they get back in the win column here against the 76ers.
Mike Anthony
SE Missouri State vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: SE Missouri State +18
Jacksonville State’s run to the NCAA tournament a season ago wasn’t a fluke and we expect the Gamecocks to push Belmont in the OVC again this year. JSU opened with a dominating 100-42 win against a lower division foe Tennessee Wesleyan and the after that warm up the Gamecocks are looking forward to testing themselves against a tough opponent on the road. The starters didn’t log many minutes in their opener, but keep an eye on guys like Drumwright and Giga to be serious factors in the OVC this season.. Richmond doesn’t have a very deep bench and that’ll be a concern as the season wares on into conference play. Jacksonville State was impressive in their opener against weak competition and we feel the Gamecocks have the tools to get the job done today on the road as they go on to cover the spread.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -½ +132 over Dallas
Regulation only. Dallas has won four of its past six games to run its record to 9-7 but let’s have a close look at that. The four victories over that span occurred against Calgary, Vancouver, Buffalo and the Islanders, not exactly the cream of the crop. Furthermore, the Stars scored five goals on 22 shots on net against Buffalo and five goals on 29 shots on goal against the Isles. That’s an unsustainable/ridiculous 10 goals on 51 shots on net. In its other two wins over that same span, Dallas scored twice on Calgary and won, 2-1 and also scored twice on Vancouver in another 2-1 victory. They Stars were out-chanced and outshot against both Calgary and Vancouver. Playing the 30th (out of 31 teams) ranked strength of schedule, Dallas is 0-2 against top-10 teams and 0-5 against top-16 teams. Indeed their defense is stronger this year than it was a year ago and their goaltending has been better too but Carolina is precisely the type of team that can contain Dallas’ top-heavy lineup.
Regular readers of this section are surely aware of us having the Hurricanes grossly undervalued the past couple of years. Carolina’s stock was up a bit prior to the start of season but after a slow start and being dead last in the Eastern Conference’s Metropolitan Division as of today, its stock is lower than it should be once again. That makes us instant buyers, as Carolina’s under the hood numbers say this is a top-5 and maybe even a top-3 team. The ‘Canes rarely get outplayed, outshot, outworked or out-chanced. Their Corsi +/- ranking is first in the NHL. Their overall Corsi For numbers rank first also. The ‘Canes have taken fewer penalties than any team in the NHL but their downfall this season has been a very unlucky 6.83 shooting percentage. In a recent game against Colorado, Carolina outshot the Avs, 60-27 and lost 5-3. That’s one example but one could go through Carolina’s entire season so far and in just about every loss, they dominated play. The Hurricanes are a beast possession team and it is therefore reasonable to expect a bunch of forthcoming wins and we’ll gladly put that to the test here.