SPORTS WAGERS
Charlotte +14½ over OKLAHOMA ST
Early in the season, we want to go after Power-5 conference teams that overachieved last year and that are in line for big regression. The expectations were pretty low for Oklahoma State last season but the Cowboys got on a roll early and played well under first year head coach Brad Underwood. The Cowboys ended up being one of six Big-12 teams to make the NCAA Tournament. The Big 12 was statistically rated as the strong conference, per multiple mainstream advance analytic services, last season. The conference is set up to be fairly good again, and could send six once more but the Pokes will not be in that group. Mike Boynton takes over after his former boss, Brad Underwood, left for Illinois. Boynton's been trying to keep the ship steady after his chief assistant, Lamont Evans, was arrested in the FBI's investigation into bribery and fraud in college hoops recruiting. OSU also lost Jawun Evans, who was an NBA pick. Evans averaged a team high 19.2 points and was a great floor leader who basically carried this team to the NCAA Tournament. That loss stings, but fellow starters Phil Forte III and Leyton Hammonds have run out of eligibility. Forte was the team’s most prolific shooter, making 85 three-pointers. Throughout his collegiate career, Forte was one of the best pure shooters in the Big 12. Hammonds, a 6-8 forward, averaged 8.1 points and 4.9 rebounds. Without Evans, Forte and Hammonds, there are too many holes to fill and therefore covering big lines like this will also be difficult. That OSU won its opener by 39 points (78-49 over Pepperdine) only inflates its stock more for this one.
Coming off of a 13-17 (C-USA 7-11) season filled with high offensive triumphs, defensive struggles and a first round exit from the Conference USA tournament, the 49ers stock is low coming into this season. However, last season was the year Coach Mark Price was able to truly begin to mold the program in his image and this year he seeks to reap the benefits. Last season, the 49ers averaged 76.5 points per game, placing fourth overall in C-USA basketball in terms of scoring, second overall in terms of three point percentage as well as free throw shooting. With three of those major contributing pieces returning to the program, Mark Price and his coaching staff have a strong foundation to build off of.
For those of you that don’t know Mark Price, allow us to bring you up to speed. He was one of the best guards of his time, playing for the Cavs from 1986 to 1995 before finishing up his last three seasons for three different teams. He’s said to have a basketball IQ that is off the charts. Steve Kerr was quoted as saying that Mark Price “revolutionized the game”. Mark Price didn’t schedule this game in Oklahoma by coincidence. Price was born in Oklahoma and the city of Enid, Oklahoma, renamed the basketball arena Mark Price Arena, as a tribute to his accomplishments. Mark Price was also the coach of these 49ers last season but didn’t schedule a game back home. Why this year and not last? Mark Price knew his team wasn’t ready last year. He did not want to go back home and be embarrassed. If he trusts his team is ready this year to put up a big-time fight in his home state, we trust that too. With high hopes and even higher spirits, the 49ers look to be in good condition to bring this one in well under the number.
W. Michigan +10½ over SOUTH CAROLINA
The best time to bet on college basketball is now or in the first 5-10 games of the season because that is when we’re going to get the best lines on undervalued teams or against overvalued teams. There are 351 Division I schools and it is therefore unreasonable to believe that the lines are going to be a as tight now as they will be in a month from now. We trust we have found one such opportunity here.
South Carolina went on a headline grabbing, historic run in last year’s main event. The Gamecocks made it all the way to the Final Four and sent an entire region into a frenzy in the process. It was a great story but you’ll now pay a little extra to get behind this team that likely won’t even sniff the NCAA’s this year. Tonight, the Gamecocks will raise their Final Four banner prior to tip-off, reminding everyone of last year’s historic achievement but also of what little is left from that team. The 2017-18 version of USC is a collection of new faces. The new guys scored 26 of Carolina’s 33 first-half points en route to a 72-53 win over Wofford. South Carolina was a 6-point favorite in that game so the final score looks very pretty indeed but the Terriers hit a measly 37% from the field while the Gamecocks hit 11 out of 23 shots (48%) from beyond the arc.
Western Michigan was picked by the league’s coaches to win the Mid-American Conference. The Broncos have won eight MAC West Division titles under Steve Hawkins in his 15-year tenure. Guard Thomas Wilder, a preseason All-MAC selection, tested the NBA waters last summer before returning to the Broncos for his senior year. He averaged over 19 points a game last season and NBA scouts love his leadership, talent and his commitment to being the best that he can be. Western Michigan has won 20 or more games three consecutive seasons. WMU finished last year tied atop the balanced MAC West with an 11-7 record. Their 16-16 overall record kept them out of any postseason tournament but this should be the year the Broncos were looking forward to. With all but one of their regular contributors returning, WMU has a great shot at reaching their first NCAA Tournament since 2014 while the Gamecocks will be hard-pressed to finish 10th or higher in the SEC. So, not only will one pay very early in the year to back South Carolina for its success last year but one will also pay for an SEC team playing a MAC team. These are inflated points and we’re on it.
Pass NFL
Will Rogers
St. Peter's vs. Northwestern
Pick: Northwestern -18.5
The set-up: The St. Peter's Peacocks dropped their season opener 61-40 at La Salle as part of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. It's another game tonight as part of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off, this time at Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Illinois against the Northwestern Wildcats. Northwestern won its season opener 79-75 over Loyola-Maryland on Friday. St. Peter's had hoped for an NCAA bid at the start of the season but had to settle for the CIT. However, the Peacocks have plenty to be proud of as they won the CIT championship, finishing with 23 wins. As for Northwestern, the school made its first-ever NCAA appearance last season, won its first-ever NCAA game and fiisihed with 24 wins, the first time a Northwestern team had ever won 20 games in a single-season.
St. Peter's: The Peacocks lost three starters off last year's team, the 6-8 Welton (12.0 & 8.3) plus guards Wyche (11.3) and Portley (7.8 ). Not a single player reached double figures in the team's season-opening loss to La Salle, as St. Peter's shot just 30.6 percent as team. However, this team is know for its deliberate style of play and its defense and the Peacocks did hold La Salle to a modest 61 points.
Northwestern: Chris Collins' team enters the new season off last year's record-setting accomplishments and returns four of five starters. Sanjay Lumpkin is the lone starter not returning and he averaged a modest 6.0 PPG and 5.4 RPG. The school was rewarded by earning a ranking of 19th in the AP's preseason poll, the first time that's ever happened in school-history (just another first!). Due to a $110 million renovation project of Welsh-Ryan Arena, all of the Wildcats' home games during the 2017-18 season will be played at Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Ill. Northwestern narrowly avoided an upset Friday in its inaugural game in Allstate Arena, edging Loyola (Md.) 79-75 behind Scottie Lindsey's 26 points. The Wildcats had a 13-point lead at halftime against Loyola and led by as many as 17, but struggled to close the game out in the face of the Greyhounds' hot shooting. Lindsey was a unanimous preseason All-Big Ten selection, after averaging 14.1 PPG last year. His backcourt partner is PG Bryant McIntosh (14.8 & 5.2 APG) plus a third "key returnee" is the 6-7 Law (12.3 & 5.8 last season). McIntosh had 16 poitst and seven assists in the opener, while Law had 12 points and added seven rebounds.
The pick: The Peacocks will have some early-season trouble adjusting and I believe are over-matched here against a very good Northwestern team that knows it under-performed in its opener. Lay the points!
Harry Bondi
CAROLINA (-8.5) over Miami
Tonight, all of the lazy “trend” handicappers will tell you the Dolphins are 5-0 in their last five meetings vs. Carolina, but what does that really mean if they have played each other just once since the 2009 season? The truth is that Miami is probably the worst 4-4 team we have ever seen and they are fading fast. With the recent trade of starting RB Jay Ajayi to the Eagles, the Dolphins rushing attack is actually worse then the No. 30 ranking we have for them. Carolina counters with our No. 3-ranked rush defense, so with no running game and QB Jay Cutler recovering from a rib injury, the Dolphins are in trouble here as they go on the road to play in front of a pumped up Monday Night Football crowd. Any time Cam Newton is motivated, the Panthers are dangerous. Carolina wins a blowout!
Rob Vinciletti
Wagner at Missouri
Play: Wagner +18
The Wagner Seahawks make a rare ESPN Appearance tonight as they travel into Missouri and take on an SEC team. Wagner, based in Staten Island NY won their opener on the road on Friday and take on a Missouri team that is 5-41 straight up vs winning teams and 2-9 after allowing 60 or less. Our early season simulation model shows the line around 13 or 14 not the 18 we are seeing here tonight. Missouri coasted past Iowa St on Saturday and this line appears to be an over reaction to that win. Wagner has done well the past few seasons and they are 4-0 ats after scoring 60 or less. The Seahawks stay under within the number here. Take the points with Wagner.
Wunderdog
Brown @ Quinnipiac
Pick: Under 156.5
Quinnipiac has already gone up against an Ivy League opponent, where they won a thriller by a single point at home. They will take on another tonight on their home court in Brown. Brown opened with a very soft unknown local Providence school, and as epected, drubbed them 106-78. That score has pushed the total on this game. These teams squared off last season and managed just 127 points between them as the pace was slow, and both teams shot under 40% and combined to go 13-44 from beyond the arc. It was also a turover plagued game that saw 37 turnovers combined. Numbers don't look to improve much here.
Dr Bob
Orlando (+12) over GOLDEN STATE
According to Warriors beat write Monty Poole, Steph Curry, who missed this morning’s shootaround, is “very, very, very unlikely to play” tonight and he’s officially been downgraded to doubtful. The Warriors can afford to rest starters if they are not 100% so I’m inclined to believe that doubtful status is more like out. Golden State still has plenty of All-Stars but it is Curry that makes that team great. Let’s just examine Curry and Kevin Durant’s on-court and off-court stats. Last season, the Warriors out-scored their opponents by 22.2 points per 48 minutes when Curry and Durant were on the floor together. However, Curry was +15.5 points per 48 playing without Durant while Durant was just +1.4 points per 48 minutes when Curry wasn’t playing with him. This season is even more drastic so far, as Curry is +14.5 points per 48 without Durant while Durant is -3.2 points per 48 without Curry.
I also looked at the other stars of the Warriors and how they perform without Curry and it’s just as bad or worse. Overall this season any combination of Curry, Durant, Green, or Thompson on the court has the Warriors at +12.5 points per 48 minutes. However, those other 3 All-Stars have been outscored by 50 points in just 166.1 minutes when any combination of them is on the floor without Curry. Steph Curry rivals LeBron James as the most important player in the NBA and the market is not adjusting nearly as much as they should be (the line went from 14 ½ down to 12 points). It also doesn’t hurt that the Magic are 22-5 ATS as a road underdog of more than 10 points the last 4 seasons, including a 21 point win at Cleveland in their only such game this season. I’ll take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 1-Star down to +10 points.
OC Dooley
Depaul -21.5
Regular clients are aware that I personally unloaded on Depaul back on Saturday (50-2 last fifty two home openers) in their initial game inside a brand NEW $173 MILLION facility. I mentioned back on Saturday that Depaul had 4 returning starters from last year's squad along with a host of TRANSFERS including one from Oklahoma along with 6'11" giant Marin Maric who was just 11 points shy of the 1,000 career mark after excelling on the Northern Illinois roster. Depaul's opener was against ONE HUNDERED FOUR YEAR rival Notre Dame who they had not faced since 2013 (forcing overtime on the Irish's home floor) and stunningly the Blue Deamons failed to cover the spread getting 9 points from the oddsmakers. Despite Depaul riding a current 0-14 skid they have been cast as a PROHIBITIVE favorite tonight against Delaware State who began their campaign versus a Division III opponent. Here is an approaching 80-PERCENT SYSTEM (33-9 the past five years with a heavy line of 20+ points in the "initial ten games") which plays ON heavy favorites like Depaul (from a "major" Division I conference) with 4 starters returning from the prior campaign and facing an opponent from a "weak" conference. I mentioned during the week that Depaul in "Saturday" games has been costly the past "three years" (5-17 ATS) but this NOT a weekend tilt