Free Picks for Monday, November 13th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dr Bob
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Lean – Miami (+9) over CAROLINA
This matchup features two of the worst offenses in the league with neither team averaging above 5 yppl. Both teams have struggled to run the football with Carolina ranking 26th and Miami 29th but they’ve shown signs of improvement recently. The Panthers abandoned Jonathan Stewart after two fumbles last game and the rest of the team ran for 6.7 ypr. The Dolphins averaged 4.8 ypr in their first game since trading Jay Ajayi and second-year back Kenyan Drake has performed well in his short career (5.3 ypr on 52 runs) when he’s had the chance.
On the other side of the ball, I expect to see both teams improve their redzone defense. The Panthers defense is allowing opponent touchdowns on 65% of redzone opportunities (29th) despite only surrendering 4.9 yppl (7th) and I expect Carolina’s redzone defense to be more in line with their overall defensive level of play moving forward, which will improved their points per game allowed numbers. Miami’s defense surrenders a touchdown on 72% of opponent redzone trips, no defense has allowed a rate that high over the course of a full season since 2010 and I expect the Dolphins redzone defense to aso improve as the season progresses. Also, the Dolphins good a boost with the addition of excellent safety TJ McDonald, whose 8 game suspension is over.
The line on this game is a bit high based on our metrics and Miami applies to a 132-60-2 ATS contrary indicator that is based on how much they’ve underperformed so far this season. Miami should be better on both sides of the ball going forward and I’ll lean with the Dolphins plus the points.
DAVE COKIN
LA SALLE AT PENNSYLVANIA
PLAY: LA SALLE +2.5
I won with the Explorers as a free play on Saturday as they blew out St. Peter’s. My thoughts on La Salle were explained in that writeup, so if you want to check those out, just scroll back a couple days. Bottom line is that I expect this team to have a decent season as a player who might have been a distraction left the team, and I suspect they’re better off without him.
Penn is off to a disappointing start with a loss at Fairfield to open the campaign. Two things hat stood out in that game were poor interior defense by the Quakers and way too many three-point attempts. Penn shot 39 treys against the Stags and connected on only nine. It’s one thing if a team has good outside marksmen. But Penn shot just 34% from beyond the arc last year, so I’ll assert that settling for long jumpers might not be their best strategy.
I won’t go overboard on La Salle as they beat up a rebuilding Peacocks squad that is probably going to struggle at the outset of this new season. But it’s still a good win for the Explorers, and they should have ample motivation tonight. Penn has won each of the last two meetings and that’s of note in this Big Five rivalry battle. I’d look at the La Salle side tonight in the role of small dog.
Scott Spreitzer
Wyoming vs. Oregon St
Play: Wyoming +6½
The Cowboys had quite a few highs and lows last season. The highs were a 23-win season and a CBI championship. The lows were a a sub-.500 conference record and a bad loss to the Air Force Falcons in the MWC tournament. The Cowboys have three returning starters and a strong supporting cast and we saw a couple on display in Wyoming's season opening win over Chattanooga. Hayden Dalton proved to be too much for the opposition, scoring 30 points and grabbing 13 boards. Dalton didn't even need much help from Alan Herndon or Justin James, who tossed in 16 ppg a season ago. This will change -- Wyoming will need production from all parts, but they own the depth to accomplish a top three or four finish in the MWC. Injury-prone Tres Tinkle is back for Oregon State and we expect a middle of the pack finish in the Pac-12 for the Beavers. Middle of the pack may not sound like a big deal, but this is a team that finished 5-27 last season, including 1-17 in conference play. Every key player is back for OSU this season, but we don't believe they should be laying three-plus buckets in this matchup. Wyoming has been a strong bankroll builder covering 24 of their last 37 games, including a 13-5 ATS mark in their last 18 non-conference games. We're backing them here.
Mike Lundin
Wolves vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz +3½
The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost back-to-back games at Golden State and Phoenix, and I would not be surprised to see them head home from this three-game road trip with an 0-3 record after the finale at Utah Monday night. They've struggled on the road all season, going 3-4 SU (2-4-1 ATS) while the Jazz are a solid 6-3 SU and ATS at home.
Utah managed to snap a four-game skid with a 114-106 win against Brooklyn on Saturday. Note that the Jazz are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games playing on one days rest.
The Wolves have a talented team, but they're still trying to figure things out on the defensive end of the court, allowing an average of 111.8 ppg (115.0 ppg on the road). That won't do it here against a Jazz side that's allowing just 95.4 ppg home at Vivint Smart Home Arena.
Ben Burns
Los Angeles at Phoenix
Play: Los Angeles +2
The Lakers have dropped the first three of their first extended road trip of the year, but should get healthy tonight at Phoenix, where the Suns have finally put a five-game losing streak to bed. It has the look and feel of a pick ‘em game, but the Lakers actually get a point and a half. LA showed some spunk on Saturday night in Milwaukee when it nearly rode Lonzo Ball’s triple-double (19/12/13) to an upset of the young and athletic Bucks, but couldn’t close in the fourth quarter. Ball and the boys look like they’re ready to finally get the job done on the road tonight against a team that is struggling as much as the Lakers are.
Jimmy Boyd
Grizzlies vs. Bucks
Play: Grizzlies +4
I like the value here with Memphis as a road dog against the Bucks on Monday. Milwaukee has won 2 straight since Eric Bledsoe made his debut with the team, but I think it has them a bit overvalued here against a quality Grizzlies team that will be looking to close out their 5-game road trip with a winning record after splitting the first 4.
Typically you don't think of teams being well rested on road trips, but this will be just the second game in the last 6 days. They should be the much fresher team here, as Milwaukee is playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
Grizzlies are also a team that seems to play their best in the underdog role, especially at this price range, as they are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Bucks on the other hand are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 games.
Teddy Davis
Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Play: Under 219
I know the Cavs have been Over machines here lately, but I think this line is definitely inflated. These two teams have already met and the total was 212.5. The game actually stayed under and the two teams combined to hit 23 3's.
So with the Cavs losing the first meeting I think we see a pretty big effort here especially from LeBron who as we all all know loves to play in the Garden. Neither team is a a legit threat from the outside the fact like I mentioned they hit 23 and still went under the first meeting. I think this easily stays under here as well.
Frank Jordan
Los Angeles at Phoenix
Play: Over 227.5
These two teams score a bunch of points and they also score a bunch of points. In their first meeting they played to a 132-130 game as combined for 76 points in the first quarter, 67 in the second quarter and each team scored 50+ in the second half. 12 players scored 10+ points and five players scored 20+ points in the first meeting between these two teams. Scoring isn't an issue for these teams it is defense as both teams allow 105+ points per game and Phoenix allows the most points per game in the league giving up 116 point a game. This game will be back and forth with points flying all over the points with both teams scoring over 115.
Power Sports
Rider vs. Xavier
Pick:Xavier -23
The 17th ranked Musketeers got their season off to an emphatic start Friday w/ a 101-49 beatdown of Morehead State. They certainly won't all be that easy (see this Thursday's game at Wisconsin), but tonight's opponent should provide little in the way of resistance. Furthermore, coming off a 90-pt effort of their own, Rider is likely to make the mistake of attempting to trade baskets here. That foolhardy approach will lead to Xavier eventually pulling away and winning big Monday night. My recommendation is to lay the points here.
It was never close on Friday w/ Xavier jumping out to a 62-24 lead at halftime and shooting 67.9 percent for the game. They held Morehead State to 23.7% from the floor. Really, coach Chris Mack couldn't have asked for a better start to the season. Remember, the Musketeers made it all the way to the Elite 8 last year. They return their best player, Trevor Bluiett, who led the way Friday w/ 25 points (21 of them coming in the first half). I expect this to be Villanova's top challenger in the Big East again this season.
Rider is expected to a be lower rung team in the MAAC, so this line looks soft. I wouldn't read too much into the Broncs scoring 90 in the opener as it was a high possession game vs. Hampton where they shot only 41.2% from the floor. Attempting to trade baskets here will not be a prudent maneuver, but it's what I expect them to do anyway. It was a big second half (54 points) vs. Hampton that they may not duplicate again all season. Last season, Rider did not cover a single November game. Xavier is 9-3 ATS after allowing 60 pts or less and can name the score tonight.
Jim Feist
Hawks at Pelicans
Pick: Under
The Atlanta Hawks (2-11) are dead last in the NBA Eastern Conference. The Hawks have lost three straight games as they had to New Orleans tonight. Dennis Schroder leads the team in scoring with a 20.6 ppg average. The Hawks are 24th in the league in scoring (102.5 ppg). The Hawks may be interested in bolstering their sagging team with a trade with the Sixers for Jahlil Okafor. New Orleans is 7-6 this season and in the middle of the Western Conference pack. DeMarcus Cousins leads the team with 28.7 ppg average. Atlanta is 11-23-1 O/U in their last 35 games against the West Conference. They are also 5-12-1 O/U their last 18 away games vs a home winning team. New Orleans is 2-5 O/U their last seven games. I look forward to a lower scoring game here on Monday and therefore will take the UNDER.
Bruce Marshall
Rhode Island at Nevada
Pick: Over
While Rhode Island's prowess was pretty well acknowledged entering this season with high-scoring Gs EC Matthews and Jared Terrell returning from last year's 25-10 team, many weren't sure what to be expect of Nevada, which was welcoming in several new transfers after key cogs Marcus Marshall and Cam Oliver departed in the offseason. The Wolf Pack, however, answered some questions in an 88-64 romp past one of the Big Sky favorites, Idaho, with NC State transfer Caleb Martin scoring 26. With the Rams scoring 84 vs. defensively-tough UNC-Asheville in their opener, this "total" doesn't look high enough at Lawlor Center.
Chip Chirimbes
Grizzlies vs. Bucks
Play: Grizzlies +4
Whenever Milwaukee plays most eyes are on Giannis 'Greek Freak' Antetokounmpo but there is a new factor that has aided the Bucks in the newly acquired Eric Bodsoe. They had dropped four straight and five of six before the guard came aboard. The Grizzlies have dropped four the their last six and are off a loss to Houston 111-96 Saturday. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
Ken Thomson
Rhode Island at Nevada
Play: Nevada -119
Just confirming a potential injury which was nothing....the Martin boys ( Caleb & Cody ) who both sat out last season after transferring from NC State may be one of the best pick-ups in MWC history for Coach Eric Musselman. The pair combined for 42 points, 9 RB's and 8 assists in the opening game win over Big Sky favorite Idaho. Tonight, it's a late tip off for the boys from Rhode Island ( 11:30 PM EST ) tip with the 8:30 PM PST start time. I expect Jordan Caroline to have a huge game and the twins to do their part. I've called games at the Lawler Event Center and that place should be rocking with the ESPNU exposure! Wolfpack by 5-10 in this one!
Tommy Brunson
Monday's comp play is Under the total in the Dolphins-Panthers contest.
True, Miami has played 3 in a row Over the total entering this Monday showdown against Carolina, but for the season the Dolphins have gone Under the total in 5 of their 8 games contested. Not only that, but the 'Fins have been shutout twice already this season, and have been held to 20 points or less in 6 of their 8 games.
Carolina has played 3 in a row Under the total, and the Panthers have also had their issues finding the end-zone, as Carolina has been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 8 games.
I have a feeling it is going to be the defenses that dictate the play tonight, and the points will be at a premium.
Let's play Miami and Carolina Under the posted price on Monday night.
2* MIAMI-CAROLINA UNDER