Sunday 1/19/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAB & NBA games.
NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, January 19
Heat-Spurs
Miami won four of its last six games; they’re 3-5 SU in last eight road games. Five of their last six games went over. San Antonio lost three of its last four games; they’re 4-4 SU in last eight home games, seven of which went over the total.
Heat won/covered its last three games with the Spurs; they’re 2-2 ATS in last four visits to the Alamo. Six of last nine series games went over.
Pacers-Nuggets
Indiana won its last four games; they won/covered last three road games. Over is 10-2 in their last dozen games. Denver won five of its last six games; they won nine of last 11 home games SU. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Pacers lost five of last seven games with the Nuggets; they’re 2-2-1 ATS in last five visits to Denver. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Boston College +7 Over Wake Forest
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Totals4U
Sunday's Free Selection: Drake/Southern Illinois under 123 1/2
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Atlantic Sports
Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Iona - 5 1/2
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#1 Sports
Sunday's Free Selection: Cincinnati Bearcats - 17
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Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: the East Carolina Pirates +16 over Cincinnati
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Sunday
Miami/San Antonio under 221
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Hawkeye Sports
Sunday's Free Pick: Carolina Hurricanes - 170
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play:
Cincinnati -17 CBB
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Sunday: Niagara Purple Eagles + 2 1/2
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday : IONA -4½ over Marist
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R&R TOTALS
R&R Totals FREE NHL Over-Under Sunday 1-19-20
UNDER 5 1/2 NY Islanders/Carolina
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WILL ROGERS
NFL | Jan 19, 2020
Titans vs. Chiefs
Titans+8 -135
The set-up: The Titans have been giant killers in the second half of the season. Certainly that's been the case in the Playoffs so far as well, knocking off both the Patriots and the Ravens. The Chiefs mounted an incredible come from behind blowout victory over Texans last weekend, but at one point there was considerable panic from all KC fans. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is scary. But the Titans counter that with great defensive play and by running the ball a lot while their offense, behind the bruising play of RB Derrick Henry.
The pick: In fact, Tennessee exposed the Chiefs' weaknesses already this year with a 35-32 win in the regular season, as Henry went for 188 yards and two TD's on 23 carries. The Titans are excuting at a very high level and they haven't been "beating themselves." It's KC that's going to have to play another perfect game here if it wants to pull off another blowout win and I don't see that happening. I believe we're going to see a battle until the final moments, but what about you? Can Tennessee keep it close, or do the Chiefs lay the hammer down again?!
1* FREE PLAY on the Tennessee Titans.
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ROB VINCILETTI
NCAA-B | Jan 19, 2020
Davidson vs. Fordham
Davidson-7½ -108
The Free Play for Championship Sunday is on Davidson as they have played the much tougher schedule and are a veteran group. Fordham has lost 8 of 9 and their only wins have been against early season Cream puffs. They have failed to cover the last 6 here at home. Long term they have a 2-22 spread mark in home dog losses. Davidson has covered 13 of 16 when they win as a road Favorite and the winning team in the series has covered all 8 times. Play on Davidson. For the free play. Go with Davidson. Rob V- GC Sports
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Doug Upstone
#313/4 Ten.Titans/KC Chiefs Under
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Vegas Hotsheet
#313/4 Ten Titans/KC Chiefs Over
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Nick Pellegrino
#312 San Francisco 49ers
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Tony Mejia
#312 San Francisco 49ers
#313 Tennessee Titans
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Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez
#311 GB Packers
#313 Ten Titans
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KEVIN DOLAN
Event: (200033) Leicester City at (200034) Burnley
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 19, 2020 9AM EST
Play: Leicester City -110
We like Leicester City in this spot after suffering a shock defeat last time out against Southampton, a team they previously rolled over earlier in the season by a 9-0 scoreline. Leicester were extremely poor in last week's display however, getting outshot by 16 attempts to 5 in front of goal and created just 2 chances over the entire 90 minutes from open play.
The festive period wasn't kind to Leicester overall as they managed just two wins from their last six games, but those losses came against excellent teams in Manchester City and Liverpool, so we're definitely getting some line value here.
We believe Leicester bounceback here with a win against Burnley, a side in severe exposure of dropping into the relegation zone if results don't start going their way soon. Burnley have lost four straight games by a combined 8-1 margin and those trends likely don't get any better here against a Leicester side they've only managed to beat just twice in their last sixteen games overall.
Take Leicester on the moneyline on Sunday to bounceback with a win against an out of sorts Burnley team and keep the pressure on Manchester City for that second slot.
PLAY: LEICESTER CITY ML -110
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TONY FINN
Event: (311) Green Bay Packers at (312) San Francisco 49ers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 19, 2020 6PM EST
Play: Total Under 47.0 (-108)
The public portion of the American gaming family assume that Green Bay's NFC North title and the team's regular season 13-3 record make them capable as the rest of the NFL 2020 Final Four. The public believe this to be the case on both sides of the ball. I would argue that the Packers are capable via their defense, not their "O". In addition, if they are to pull off the Championship Sunday upset on Levi versus the San Fran 49ers it would be because the "stop-unit" stepped up and created havoc in Jimmy G's orbit.
I have postured this free pick based on public perception, doing so in the first sentence of this analysis. And justifying this free pick requires I point out the obvious. This being the snake bite (you know, obvious being "if it were a snake it would have bit you" adage) makes the Packers the public team in this NFC Championship. The major media Mouths do their part in positioning the perception that the Packers start and stop with Aaron Rodgers. And, being obvious for the second time this paragraph, Rodgers doesn't play defense. The 2019 offseason saw the Green Bay powers that-are address the team need for defense.
And I expect this comment will find several Pack faithful performing Twitter drive-by's stating that Finn needs Lasik. But the team addressed defense in the offseason, not offense. The Packers brass know Aaron. And Aaron at 36 ain't Aaron at 35 yrs or younger. The Matt LaFleur offense isn't a great fit for the 36-year old Rodgers. He didn't pass the eye-test, my eye-test in 14 of the team's 16 regular season games. First 3 NFL weeks found Rodgers with 4 TDs, 647 passing yards, 96.5 PR and 61.3 completion percentage. First three NFL weeks (@Bears, vs Vikings vs Broncos) found the defense allowing an average of just under 12 points per game. Packers’ defense had seven new opening day starters including FA Preston and Za’Darius Smith. Packers defensive front thru three games had 12 sacks.
Packers won 13 games with a mere 63-point scoring differential. Note, this is the lowest for a 13-win team in the Super Bowl era.
Free Pick is a play UNDER the TOTAL of 47 points
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BOB VALENTINO
Just too many points!
My gut-feeling is Kansas City will win this game, but with both Andy Reid's struggles as a coach in the postseason in this round - just 1-5 in his 6 title game between Philadelphia and Kansas City for his career, including a loss in last year's game against New England - and with Reid just 1-7 for his career when playing the Titans, including a loss on November 10th in Nashville not to mention a Wild Card 17-16 loss at home to the Titans just 2 seasons ago, well you can see my trepidation in laying a full touchdown this afternoon even at friendly Arrowhead Stadium.
I am not going to go into all of the amazing stats that Derrick Henry has racked up, but suffice it to say he is on a run like no other back in the history of the game. In the regular season 35-32 home win over Kansas City, Henry rumbled for 188 yards.
You saw what he did to both the Patriots and the Ravens so far in the postseason and I have no reason to doubt he won't have his way again today against KC's run defense that struggled mightily for the better part of the season.
Yes, the Chiefs "D" did step up over the final 6 weeks of the regular season as they allowed right around 11 points per game to opponents, but you saw they surrender 31 points last weekend at home to the Texans, so my jury is still out on whether they can contain Henry enough to get on top of this impost.
Since Ryan Tannehill has taken over at quarterback, Tennessee is on a 9-3 straight up run and while Ryan has not thrown for video game numbers - in fact the fewest passing yards in back-to-back playoff wins since all the way back in 1970! - he hasn't needed to. He has protected the football and has made the most of his passing attempts as the Titans have posted 20 points in their win at New England and 28 points in their win over Baltimore.
Love the job head coach Mike Vrabel has done working in conjunction with defensive coordinator Dean Pees as they limited the Pats to only 10 points and more impressively halted Lamar Jackson and his Ravens as Baltimore could only come up with 12 points.
I doubt the Titans keep Patrick Mahomes from getting his, but again, this number is just a little too high for my liking when trying to build a case for laying the number with the host.
Tennessee was able to sack Jackson 4 times, while also snaring 2 interceptions in the upset win. This will be 3 straight weeks on the road for the Titans and while it has not bothered them so far, I do think this task at a rocking and frigid Arrowhead Stadium is going to see them come up just shy of their proposed Miami destination. However, I do feel that with all of the past history weighing heavy of Kansas City's shoulders - hell, they should have lost last week after tailing 24-0 at home! - I do not think the Chiefs win this game by more than 4 points.
I am backing the Titans plus the points today in the AFC Championship Game.
3* TENNESSEE
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STEPHEN DeANGELO
For Sunday’s freebie, we’ll dip our toes in the Missouri Valley Conference pool for the first time this season and back Southern Illinois at home against Drake.
Since losing 76-60 to San Francisco back on Nov. 16, Southern Illinois has been quite predictable: The Salukis are 6-0 SU and ATS at home and 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the road. And each of the six home victories were convincing, as SIU blew out North Carolina-Central (64-48), Norfolk State (76-59), Hampton (75-53), Southeast Missouri State (64-45), Illinois State (67-55) and Valparaiso (63-50). So not only is that six straight double-digit home wins; it’s six wins by an average of 16.3 points.
To put the Salukis’ home-road discrepancy into clearer focus, just look at their offensive production: Since Nov. 10, they’ve tallied 52, 66, 60, 69, 48, 56, 48 and 48 points in eight road defeats (55.9 ppg). But in six home wins, they’ve scored 64, 76, 75, 64, 67 and 63 points (68.2 ppg).
As for Drake, it comes into today having won three of its last four (SU and ATS), but the three wins were at home, while the one loss was on the road (66-61 at Valpo). In fact, the Bulldogs are 1-4 SU and ATS on the highway (compared with 10-0 at home). And each of those losses was ugly: 81-59 at Cincinnati, 67-59 at Miami (Ohio), 78-47 at Dayton and 80-72 at Bradley.
Throw in the fact that Drake is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Salukis have gotten the money as a favorite during its 6-0 SU and ATS home winning streak, and I have no problem laying this short price.
3* SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
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MITCHELL NEWMAN
Comp play for this Sunday goes in the NBA as I will back the Miami Heat in their road game at San Antonio.
Both teams had Saturday night off, as Miami just won on Friday night at Oklahoma City, 115-108 as the small -1 point road favorite. Prior to that road win, Miami handled San Antonio on their home court both straight up and against the spread, as the Heat dumped the Spurs 106-100 as the -5 point favorites.
No reason to think the Heat can't pull off the sweep here today, as the Spurs come into this game off a Friday night home loss to te Atlanta Hawks in a game they were favored in by -8 1/2 points! That was San Antonio's 5th loss in their last 8 games contested.
San Antonio is just 6-15 against the spread at home this year, and they come into this game allowing close to 115 points per game on the season. With Miami on a 22-11 against the spread run this season when playing with the night off prior, I am going to go right ahead and ride the Heat to complete the season series sweep.
Play Miami over San Antonio.
3* MIAMI
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY: MINNESOTA (CBB) +4½ over Rutgers
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: DAVIDSON -7½ over Fordham
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: DAVIDSON -7½ over Fordham
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, January 19, 2020
CB (855) SOUTH DAKOTA ST VS (856) SOUTH DAKOTA
Take: (855) SOUTH DAKOTA ST
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Roz Wins
Roz's SUNDAY, JANUARY 19, 2020 Free Pick
NBA
1/19 12:05 PM Take : (567) MIAMI HEAT
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play Sunday, January 19, 2020
NBA (569) INDIANA PACERS VS (570) DENVER NUGGETS
Take: Pacers
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Early Sunday Selection Is
FORDHAM +8
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Arthur Ralph
SUN So Illinois +1
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