College Football Futures Betting Report
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Saban and Company receiving EXTRA attention
Alabama, it won’t surprise you to hear, is dominating the college football futures market in Las Vegas ahead of the 2017 season. Opening at prices few would consider bargains, the Crimson Tide continue to be hammered by the betting public. And we emphasize “public” – wiseguys do not bet any team, even mighty Alabama, to win a national championship at such unattractive odds.
“There’s a lot of money and a lot of tickets on them (some in the $10,000 to $20,000 range). I wouldn’t necessarily consider it sharp,” said John Avello, director of race and sports at the Wynn, who opened Alabama at 4/1 and is down to 5/2. "I don’t think sharps are playing a 4/1 shot in college football that has to win their conference and win two games after that to win it all. Doesn’t sound like a sharp play to me.”
Oddsmaker Chris Andrews is seeing similar action at the South Point.
“Mostly public,” Andrews said of the heavy money on ‘Bama. “We may have a sharp bet in there off the opener (4/1), but it’s been almost all public. Everybody assumes they reload every year. Well, they do until they don’t. … (But) I’d be careful about those assumptions. Not that it won’t happen, you’re just not getting a very good price that it will. They still have to get to the playoffs, and there are so many quirky things that happen (during a season).”
At William Hill U.S., Alabama has accounted for 21 percent of the money bet in the college football futures pool – Ohio State and USC are next closest, each at 10 percent.
Andrews suggests a different approach for bettors high on the Tide.
“If you love ‘Bama, you’re probably better off just picking your spots during the course of the season, rather than taking 5/2 – that’s just not a very good price,” he said.
Bettors backing ‘Bama in the win total market aren’t getting much of deal, either, as that number sits between 10.5 and 11 around Vegas. With a 12-game regular season, betting ‘over’ those numbers leaves little margin for error.
Save a momentary flash to 11, the South Point has been dealing 10.5 for Alabama’s win total, the over currently priced as the -165 favorite.
“At 11, wiseguys would have to bet you 'under,' Andrews said. “They’d just have to. It’s almost like pointing a gun to their head.”
That’s exactly what happened at the Westgate SuperBook, where oddsmaker Ed Salmons said he took sharp action on Alabama under 11.
“That was based on it being 10.5 (over -140) in town,” he said.
Troll Tide
According to Andrews’ personal ratings, Alabama isn’t even the best team in the nation.
“I have Ohio State ranked as my No. 1 team in the country. I have them 1 point better than ‘Bama,” he said.
That doesn’t mean the Buckeyes, priced at 4/1 at the South Point, will be there at the end. This may not sit well with college football fans in the south, but Andrews believes Ohio State has a tougher path through the Big Ten than Alabama does in the SEC.
“Ohio State’s in a tougher division – I don’t know about conference – but they’re in a tougher division than ‘Bama is,” he said, noting they have to play Penn State and Michigan in the regular season before a likely meeting against a solid Wisconsin team in the Big Ten championship game. “’Bama, for one of the few seasons ever, has an easier road to hoe than Ohio State.”
That tough road ahead isn’t keeping Buckeyes fans from backing their team.
“Ohio State always writes a ton of money,” the Westgate’s Salmons said. “We have Ohio State at 3/1 and we’re losing money on them in the future book, which tells you all you need to know about Ohio State fans.” Professional money did show up on the Buckeyes at CG Technology, pushing their win total from 10 (o-125) to 10.5 (o -150), according to vice president of risk Jason Simbal.
Michigan’s growing number
Despite the public’s love for Michigan, the Wolverines have seen their futures odds more than double at some Vegas bet shops. Their number at the Westgate has jumped from an opener of 12/1 to 25/1.
Both Salmons and Andrews pointed out that only one of last year’s starters returns to Jim Harbaugh’s defense, and last season’s starting quarterback, Wilton Speight, is battling to keep the job this year with two others.
“I’m not sure if that means Speight is not very good or he’s just got some really good competition,” Andrews said.
Harbaugh’s squad is also looking at a daunting schedule. In conference, they play at Wisconsin, at Penn State and home against Ohio State – and that’s after facing Florida in its season opener at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Salmons acknowledged he doesn’t necessarily do a deep dive into each team before posting futures odds in January for the following season – hence, Michigan’s 12/1 opening price.
“When I first put up our future book odds, I’m not going through every team’s schedule at that point. I’m just putting it up essentially based on perception and what I know at that time,” Salmons said. “When you look at each team in detail and go through the individual schedules then you can really pinpoint what you believe each team is capable of. With Michigan, everything’s stacked against them this year.”
The fading of Michigan begins right off the bat, as there’s been some action against them in Week 1. At CG Technology, the Wolverines are a 4-point favorite over the Gators, after opening -5.
“There was a big move on Florida, which was pretty sharp money,” Simbal said.
Price was right on the Badgers
Sticking with our Big Ten theme, while Salmons estimates 95 percent of the national championship futures money wagered at his shop comes from public bettors, he’s taken some sharp action on Wisconsin, which opened at 40/1 and is down to 20/1.
“Wisconsin has a joke of a schedule this year. They literally have one tough game the whole year,” Salmons said “... We took some money on them, and I’m sure some of that money was so-called professional money.” At CG, Wisconsin’s win total has been bet up from 9.5 (o -125) to 10 (o-165).
A smattering of win total notes
While the public’s tendency to bet ‘over’ extends beyond game totals to season win totals, Texas (8 o-120) is one team they’ve been betting ‘under’ at the Westgate. Salmons welcomes the action. “Texas is a team I like a lot this year, so I’m liking the under money."
At CG, Auburn has been pushed from 8 wins (o-115) to 8.5 (o-150). “They’ve gotten a lot of public action,” Simbal said.
The action against Nevada also stood out to Simbal, as bettors are taking shots against their home state team. After opening at 5 (u-140), the Wolf Pack have been bet down significantly to 4.5 (u -230).
At the South Point, gamblers are going ‘over’ 8.5 wins on Florida. Said Andrews, “I’m not sure I really like that. That side of the conference (SEC East) is very even, not that it’s great.”