NFL Futures Betting Report
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
New England favored again
It’s the Patriots vs. the field on NFL futures boards in Las Vegas
It’s not quite as large as the Warriors’ in the NBA, but the gap between the Patriots and the rest of the field on the NFL futures oddsboard is startling. While there’s typically at least four or five teams bunched near the top, this season it’s New England, then everyone else.
In the win total market, too, bettors are playing ‘over’ the ambitious numbers hung at Las Vegas sports books.
At William Hill U.S., 17 percent of the money bet in the Super Bowl futures pool has been on the Patriots, prompting a move from 4/1 to 3/1 on that oddsboard. The Raiders, at 7/1, are next on the list, followed by the Packers (8/1), Cowboys (9/1) and Seahawks (9/1).
There’s a similar dynamic at other Vegas bet shops, with the Patriots priced as low as 11/5 at the South Point and 5/2 at the Westgate SuperBook. The low numbers are not discouraging people from firing away on New England.
While it’s mostly public bettors, not wiseguys, betting the Patriots to repeat after their historic comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, the wagers tend to be of the larger variety. CG Technology has written a $7,000, $6,000 and two $5,000 bets on the Pats from what vice president of risk Jason Simbal calls casual fans.
“Of the five biggest tickets we’ve written, four have been on New England,” Simbal said. “It’s the type of bet, because of the price, that $10, $20 bettors don’t want to do, but the four-figure bettors do.”
It’s been “all Patriots money” at the Wynn, according to John Avello, director of race and sports, but if you’re interested in betting New England to win it all again, Avello’s shop is the place to do it. After opening the Pats at 5/1, Avello has adjusted them down to 4/1, still the most attractive price in Vegas that we’re seeing.
“People are looking at the Patriots and saying they’re going to win 13, 14 games this year,” Avello said. “That’s all very possible, but at that price (between 2/1 and 3/1)? I think it’s ridiculous.”
At the South Point, the Pats’ season win total has jumped from an opening number of 11 (o -120) to 12.5 (u -135), a lofty yet attainable number for Brady, Belichick and Co., who have won 13 or more game six times since 2003.
While short-priced bets on the Pats to win the Super Bowl or for them to go ‘over’ 12.5 wins aren’t exactly sharp plays, South Point sports book director Chris Andrews understands why such wagers interest casual bettors.
“In one sense it’s justified because they had a really good offseason,” Andrews said. “I was joking that you’d think they were 2-14 (last season) rather than winning the Super Bowl, but they were very aggressive. They certainly didn’t have many holes, but they addressed some perceived possible weaknesses, and they are the Patriots. Unless Brady goes down, they’re going to be right there, whatever it is – the division, the conference, the Super Bowl, the season win total.
“I don’t think (bettors are) getting great prices on what they’re betting on, but I don’t think they’re crazy for betting it, especially for a casual fan. You’re going to be in action all year with a pretty good chance at winning your bet.”
For those looking beyond the Patriots, meanwhile, this is a good year to make a futures bet.
“When you have such a big favorite like the Patriots, you get some nice, big prices on almost all the other teams,” said Simbal, whose shop is dealing the Cowboys at 17/2, the Packers at 9/1, the Seahawks at 10/1 and the Steelers and Raiders each at 11/1.
How bad are the Jets?
On the other side of the spectrum are the New York Jets, whose opening win total of 5.5 (o -120) at the South Point wasn’t nearly low enough for the betting market’s tastes. ‘Under’ money has pushed the number south to 4 (u -120), the lowest in the league.
The Jets have also been the biggest mover on the Super Bowl futures board at the Wynn, their odds tripling from an opening price of 100/1 to 300/1 currently. The South Point’s Andrews believes the Jets’ woefulness may be exaggerated.
“I’m surprised the Jets are quite so bad in everyone’s estimation,” Andrews said. “Maybe they are that bad, I guess, but I put them up at 5.5 and that’s not a very good season, either to go 5-11 or 6-10. But all the money’s been ‘under’. It seems they think the Jets are the worst team in football.”
The Browns (4.5 u-115) and 49ers (4.5 o -150) are rated slightly above the Jets, according to South Point win totals.
Andrews cautions bettors about buying into the theory that the Jets may tank to position themselves to get the top draft pick next season (fans have been clamoring for USC quarterback Sam Darnold). “That probably doesn’t go on in the NFL as much as people would think,” Andrews said. “(Coach) Todd Bowles certainly has his own personal pride, and halfway through the season, if they’re 2-6 ,it might be the best thing for the franchise that they tank, but I’m not sure Bowles is going to do that on weekly basis. Probably most coaches wouldn’t. I’d be very careful with that line of thought.”
If you’re a wiseguy, you probably like the Jags
The AFC South may not be the sexiest division in the NFL, but based on the odds, it figures to be the most competitive.
At CG, the Titans have been bet from 11/5 to win the division to 2/1, which makes them the favorites. The Texans opened as the chalk, but at +220 now sit behind Tennessee, with the Colts listed at +230 and the Jaguars 5/1. After two straight 8-8 seasons in Indianapolis, the betting market is down on the Colts. CG is dealing Indy at 50/1 to win the Super Bowl, up from a 16/1 opening price.
“There’s been no interest in betting them at all,” according to Simbal.
The opposite can be said of the Jags, who have seen their win total at the South Point spike from 5.5 (o -120) to 6.5 (o -140), thanks largely to sharp action.
Andrews has seen this movie before, and it doesn’t have a happy ending for Jacksonville bettors – they’ve won five games or less in six straight seasons and only three last year.
“Wiseguys seem to bet them every single year, including this year on the season win totals and everything else, and I just shake my head,” Andrews said. “I’m sure one of these years they’re going to have a good year, but it seems to be the theme almost every year – like they take away your wiseguy card unless you like the Jaguars.”