College Football Betting News and Notes Week 9

Betting Recap - Week 8
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

College Football Week 8 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-19
Against the Spread 22-34-1
Home-Away
Straight Up 33-24
Against the Spread 29-27-1
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 30-25-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Southern Methodist (+23, ML +1000) vs. Houston, 38-16
North Texas (+17.5, ML +650) at Army, 35-18
Penn State (+17.5, ML +700) vs. Ohio State, 24-21
Hawaii (+17, ML +550) at Air Force, 34-27 (OT)

The largest favorites to cover

Northern Illinois (-24) vs. Buffalo, 44-7
Oklahoma State (-23.5) at Kansas, 44-20
San Diego State (-23.5) vs. San Jose State, 42-3

Top 25 Notes

There were a handful of elite teams enjoying a mid-season rest this weekend, including Clemson on a bye. Top-ranked Alabama was in action, though, and they handled their business in a battle of Top 10 teams against visiting Texas A&M. The Aggies have been known to give the Crimson Tide fits in the past, but this time was not one of those times. The Crimson Tide pulled away in the second half for a 33-14 victory, and they held on for the narrow cover after scoring the final points of the game early in the fourth quarter. ... Navy celebrated their return to the Top 25 with a victory at home against Memphis, 42-28. The Middies have won five of their six games this season, and they're an impressive 4-1-1 ATS heading into an AAC showdown at South Florida next Friday. ... Western Michigan continues to row that boat, winning their eighth game of the season. After opening 5-0 ATS, however, they have managed to cover just once in the past three games. The Broncos cracked the Top 20, and they're a non-Power 5 team to watch as they have two road wins over Big Ten teams and look poised for a New Year's Day bowl game if they continues to tick off wins. ... West Virginia continues to quietly roll along without much national fanfare. They improved to 6-0 SU for the first time since 2006 with a 34-10 win over Texas Chrisian, and they have covered back-to-back games for the first time this season after starting 1-3 ATS. The 'under' is 3-0 for the Mountaineers, and they have allowed 17 or fewer points in four of their six outings.

Utah kept themselves on target for their showdown with Washington next week by holding off UCLA, 52-45. The Utes have won back-to-back road games, and they're 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in five conference games. The battle with the Huskies takes place at Rice-Eccles next week where the Utes are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS. Utah RB Joe Williams burst onto the scene with 29 rushes for 332 yards and four touchdowns. Earlier in the season, he had elected to retire in September due to a multitude of injuries. Now, he holds the record as the school's all-time single game rushing yardage total.

Louisville was nearly caught napping last week in their ugly 24-14 win against Duke, but they more than answered the bell in their conference battle against upset-minded North Carolina State. The Cardinals fired out to a 44-0 lead at halftime and managed to earn a 54-13 victory at Papa John's Stadium. Total bettors felt the sting of the bad beat gods in the closing minutes of this game (see below).

North Carolina went to Charlottesville, in a place they have traditionally struggled, and picked up the 35-14 win over Virginia. The Cavaliers entered the game 7-1 ATS in their past eight ACC games, and 9-2-1 ATS in their past 12 overall, but they never really threatened to cover in this one as the Tar Heels kept them at arm's length all day. Since being whitewashed in the downpours during Hurricane Matthew against Virginia Tech, the Heels have bounced back with a pair of road wins and covers. In fact, UNC is 4-0 SU/ATS away from Kenan Stadium this season, and the Heels have won nine straight games on the road.

Big Five Conference Report

It was a light week in the ACC, but Syracuse picked up a very important win. The Orange built on their win against Virginia Tech last week by winning on the road at Boston College, 28-20. Syracuse snapped an eight-game ACC road losing streak, and they handed the Eagles their 12th consecutive conference loss dating back to Nov. 29, 2014, when BC upended 'Cuse. ... Miami-Florida continues to struggle mightily, as they dropped their third straight ACC game, 37-16 at Virginia Tech Thursday night. The Hurricanes opened 4-0 SU/ATS, but now they're 0-3 SU/ATS and look anything but the team which earned a Top 10 ranking earlier in the month.

Wisconsin went down to Iowa and grinded out a 17-9 win to rebound after last weekend's disappointing near-miss against Ohio State. The Badgers earned the Heartland Trophy by holding the Hawkeyes to three field goals, just 14 first downs and 236 total yards. Wisconsin has won just two of their past three overall, but they're 4-0 ATS over the stretch, and 6-1 ATS in seven outings this season heading into next weekend's clash against Nebraska. ... Speaking of the Cornhuskers, they were behind 14-10 midway through the third quarter before shaking free of the Boilermakers for a 27-14 win. A win is a win, but it certainly will not quiet the critics questioning if the 'Huskers truly are a Top 10 caliber team. We'll learn a lot more next week. ... The Buckeyes were dumped in Happy Valley by the Nittany Lions, 24-21. It was especially upsetting for Ohio State bettors, who thought they might be in good shape with the score 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes have failed to cover in each of their past three games, and the 'under' is 3-1 in their past four.

Kansas State dumped Texas 24-21 in Manhattan, and that will get #FireCharlie going at full force on Twitter again. The Longhorns just cannot win on the road, falling to 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in three games away from Austin. ... Oklahoma State had some issues early at Kansas, but they pulled away in the second half to win 44-20 and earn the cover as 23-point favorites. Jayhawks side bettors and 'under' (61) bettors were killed in one fell swoop as the Cowboys struck for the game's final score with 5:04 to go.

It wasn't pretty, but Colorado posted the 10-5 win at Stanford as the offensive woes for the Cardinal continue. Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey returned to the lineup, but nothing changed for the Stanford offense which was limited to 15 first downs and just 265 total yards, averaging just 3.0 yards per rush. Stanford has dropped three of their past four games and they're 1-3 ATS during the stretch. They have also scored 17 or fewer points in each of the past four outings, and the 'under' is 5-2 in Stanford's seven games this season. For the Buffs, they're an impressive 8-0 ATS this season, and they have two wins straight up as a road underdog. ... On Friday it was Oregon and California doing battle in a game with a total of 90. 'Under' bettors were hurt with a Ducks TD with 3:15 to go in regulation, tying the game at 42 before overtime. The Bears, who squandered a 21-point early lead, held on for the 52-49 win in OT. The Ducks have dropped an un-Oregon-like five straight games, and they're a dismal 0-6-1 ATS in seven games overall heading into their home game against Arizona State next week.

Auburn was favored by double digits at home against Arkansas which raised some eyebrows. The Tigers immediately showed why, racing out to a 21-0 after one quarter. The Tigers never looked back, trucking the Razorbacks 56-3 on the Plains to win their third straight, improving to 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Tigers are an impressive 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite, too. ... The good news is that Missouri solved their offensive problems by scoring 45 points. The bad news is that they were upended 51-45 by Middle Tennessee. The Tigers have failed to cover in three straight outings.

Mid-Major Report

South Florida's chances of a New Year's Bowl appearance are basically next to nil after suffering a shocking 46-30 loss at Temple. The Bulls entered 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, with only a loss to Florida State, but the Owls made life hard for the Bulls in Philadelphia. It won't be any easier with a home game against Navy on a short week. ... Tulsa rebounded nicely after last weekend's bitter pill at Houston. They roughed up visiting Tulane 50-27 at Skelly, and they have covered in back-to-back games while scoring at least 31 points in five straight games, and six of their seven outings. The 'over' has cashed in five straight for the Golden Hurricane. ... UCF bounced back from their disappointing last-minute loss to Temple last week with a 24-16 win at Connecticut. The Knights are now an impressive 4-1 ATS over their past five outings.

North Texas scored the biggest upset of the weekend with a 35-18 win at Army, winning back-to-back road games for the first time closing out the 2013 season with three straight road wins. In fact, before their overtime win at Rice Sept. 24, the Mean Green was 0-14 SU and 3-11 ATS in their previous 14 road outings. ... Charlotte has also won back-to-back road wins for the first time in their brief FBS history after stunning Marshall 27-24 as 8 1/2-point underdogs. The 49ers have covered three straight outings, and the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for Charlotte. ... Texas-El Paso slapped the brakes on a five-game losing streak with a win at Texas-San Antonio, 52-49. It was just the second cover for the Miners in the past six outings.

Ohio scored a 14-10 road win at Kent State for their fourth road cover in four tries this season. It was also the seventh consecutive 'under' result for the Bobcats. ... Miami-Ohio scored their second straight victory and cover with a 40-26 win at Bowling Green. The 'over' was the first for the Redhawks since Sept. 3 after six straight 'under' results. ... Akron has been a bit erratic this season in terms of wins and losses, but they tend to rebound nicely. They were blown out at home by Western Michigan 41-0 last week, but the Zips rebounded with a 35-25 win at Ball State. The Zips have won three straight on the road, and they're 2-1 ATS during the span. They travel to Buffalo next Thursday.

Colorado State posted an impressive 42-23 win at UNLV, earning their first road victory in four tries this season. CSU has covered three in a row, and six of the past seven. ... New Mexico routed Louisiana-Monroe 59-17 for their second straight win and cover. More importantly, the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 for the Lobos so far this season. They have scored 31 or more points in six of their seven outings while allowing at least 32 points in five of their seven game.

New Mexico State suffered a 22-19 setback at home against Georgia Southern. The fourth try was the charm for the Eagles, who had dropped each of their past three games, all on the road. Georgia Southern has failed to cover in five straight, and six of seven overall. ... Appalachian State cooled off Idaho 37-19, and this game had the biggest bad beat of the weekend (see below). The Vandals have covered three straight, and the 'over' has hit in each outing.

Bad Beats

App State bettors laying the 21 were steamed when Idaho found the end zone with :04 left in regulation to cut the Mountaineers lead to 37-19 for the worst backdoor cover in a while.

With 3:46 to go and a 51-13 lead, Louisville elected to kick a meaningless 27-yard field goal to make it 54-13. Well, meaningless except for the fact it changed the result from 'under' (64) to 'over'.

We have witnessed plenty of late-night bad beats in the Pac-12, and Week 8 provided yet another, although not quite as dramatic as others. Washington State has covering pretty much the entire game, leading 37-21 early in the fourth quarter. But Arizona State posted a 70-yard punt return for touchdown and two-point conversion to cut the Cougs' lead to 37-29. They elected to kick a field goal with 4:36 to go to cut the lead to five, and Washington State ran out the clock and could not get the knockout punch for the cover.

The Hawaii-Air Force game had a total of 58, and the 'under' looked good at 20-13 early in the fourth quarter. The Warriors tied the game with 11:51 in regulation, but there were no more points until overtime. Both teams scored TDs in the first overtime, and Hawai'i scored a TD in the second OT to clinch the over.

College Football Recap for Week 8
By Brandon Shively
Covers.com

There is a reason that Army, Tulane, and Air Force all run the triple option and prefer to keep the ball on the ground. Saturday the 3 quarterbacks (Tulane’s Cuiellette, Army’s Bradshaw, Air Force’s Romine) went 11-for-50 combined with 5 interceptions. All 3 teams lost which is no surprise after seeing these horrendous passing numbers.

Penn State might have scored the ‘upset of the year’ against Ohio State. Having said that, this was the most misleading final score of the week as far as teams losing that outgained their opponent. Ohio State outgained Penn State by 137 yards. A blocked punt in the 4th quarter followed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown gave Penn State the lead and all the momentum they needed to close out the game with a win.

If you had Boise State Friday night, then you took a tough loss in what was a win, but no-cover for the Broncos. They outgained BYU by 280 yards and averaged 7.25 yards per play while holding BYU to 3.27 yards per play. Boise State had 5 turnovers in what was a crazy game and blocked a field goal as time expired to win 28-27. I released Boise State (-7) as a free pick and it was a disappointment not to have the Broncos cover after dominating the game.

Who took the biggest loss on Saturday? It was the Arkansas Razorbacks who lost 56-3 to Auburn. The Razorbacks offensive line played an embarrassing game and got called on publicly for their lackluster performance. Auburn had 543 rushing yards, averaged 9.16 yards per play, and held Arkansas to only 25 rushing yards and only 1 scoring opportunity. The Auburn Tigers are only allowing 14 ppg this season as they have what might be the most improved defense in the nation, behind new DC Kevin Steele and a 4-3 base with a pair of former five-star recruits in Karl Lawson and Montravious Adams on the defensive line. The two have combined for 9.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss.

Kentucky got a much needed win over Mississippi State as there are not many winnable games on the Wildcats schedule remaining. In a game that featured 6 lead changes, Kentucky kicked a 51 yard field goal as time expired to give Mississippi State their 2nd consecutive tough defeat as they squandered a lead at BYU the previous week and lost in overtime. While Kentucky only won this game by 2 points, they outgained Mississippi State by 192 yards. It is worth noting that neither team could stop the run as the Wildcats averaged 6 yards per rush while the Bulldogs averaged 7.2 yards per rush.

Air Force lost their 3rd consecutive game in overtime against Hawaii. The Hawaii defense was on the field for 102 plays but held Air Force to only 3.92 yards per play, much due to QB Romine going 1-for-10 for 20 yards through the air. Hawaii QB Dru Brown has a 9 TD/ 2 INT mark his last 4 games as the Rainbow Warriors have averaged 36 ppg. The Hawaii offense has improved 14 ppg from last year and 102 ypg and only needs two wins to become bowl eligible under first year coach and former Hawaii QB, Nick Rolovich.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma accounted for 1708 yards of offense in case you missed it! Both teams had equal yardage with 854 yards each. Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes had a perfect QB rating of 100 on 3rd downs (16-of-19 for 263 yards/ 3 rushes for 39 yards). The Oklahoma defense was on the field for 111 snaps as this defense ranks 127th in passing yards allowed per game. Last year the Sooners were ranked 9th in the nation in pass defense. They had 20 interceptions and only allowed 19 touchdowns. This year it’s the complete opposite as the depleted secondary has only 3 INT’s while giving up 22 TD’s.

While there were 69 total points scored in the Washington State/ Arizona State game, there were only 626 total yards of offense which usually produces final point totals in the 45-52 point range. If you had the ‘over’, then you were fortunate to cash this one in.

If you had the ‘over’ in the Western Kentucky/ Old DOminion game, then you had to love the Hilltoppers after they put up 52 points in the first half with the ‘over’ cashing at halftime. Western Kentucky was perhaps the most efficient offense of the week, running neck and neck with Auburn.

The 10-5 final score in the Colorado/ Stanford game is about as crazy as a final college football score you will see. When would we ever think Colorado would hold ‘Stanford’ to only 5 points, 3 scoring opportunities, and force 4 turnovers? Stanford is down big time this year with terrible QB play and RB McCaffrey less than 100%. Only South Carolina and Buffalo average less points a game than Stanford. A 21 ppg decrease from 2015 might be the biggest decrease in offense in FBS this season. For Colorado, they remain perfect in the ‘ATS’ category (8-0 ATS). Colorado is doing it on defense as they have tightened p their defense by 21 ppg and 133 ypg since 2014 under DC Leavitt. I am looking forward to this Washington State/ Colorado matchup on 11/19 as it’s possible that both team will be ranked. Who would have ever guessed that being a possibility?

There were 2 games super high totals (90, 85.5) and both games went ‘Over the Total’, but the Cal/ Oregon game needed help going into overtime in what was a terrible bad beat for all bettors that had the ‘under’.

Best teams on 3rd down conversions this year: Texas Tech (59.2%), Western Mich (56.3%), Toledo (53.9%), MTSU (51.7%), and La Tech (51.5%)

Worst defenses on 3rd down conversions this year: Purdue, Nevada, Ga Tech, Hawaii, New Mexico State.

Most efficient teams in the Red Zone: Kansas State (32/33), Arizona State (29/30), BYU (29/30, Vanderbilt (25/26), and Iowa State (20/21).

Turnover margin: Boise State and Stanford are -8 in turnover margin and tied for 120th in the nation. Washington (+14), Western Michigan (+12), and BYU (+11) are the only 3 teams with a double digit positive turnover margin.

Penalties: What is amazing is the majority of the most penalized teams in 2016 are Power 5 teams, with 3 of the bottom 10 coming out of the BIG 12 (Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU). Also, Louisville is ranked 125th committing 9 penalties a game.

Opening Line Report - Week 9
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

If revenge plays any kind of role in your college football handicapping, you’ll be giving a hard look at Michigan as they travel to East Lansing this week. Last year’s punting gaffe by the Wolverines that led to a Michigan State win was the most improbable of occurrences, and it was the third time in a row the Spartans beat their in-state rival.

Things are far different this time around, though. Michigan, in year two under Jim Harbaugh, are 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country. Michigan State is 2-5 and has fallen by the wayside of irrelevance.

CG Technology in Las Vegas opened Michigan -18 on Sunday morning, but the number was up to -24 two hours later. By Monday afternoon, it settled between 23 and 23.5 at various sports book around town.

"They haven’t stopped anyone all year, which is hard to believe. Michigan State is known for their defense," Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., said of the Spartans. "And their offense is playing terrible. It’s hard to be believe a program of that stature and where they‘ve been the past couple of years has dropped that far, but they have, and the other team is playing lights out every game."

None of this is lost on the betting public, from which John Avello, vice president of race and sports at the Wynn, expects plenty of action.

"I’m at (Michigan minus) 23 on this game, and I’m gonna be going higher," Avello said shortly after noon ET on Monday.

Avello pointed out the scoring discrepancy between these teams – Michigan is averaging 48.7 points per game, Michigan State 23.1 ppg – and said of Sparty, "It’s not like they had a bad game and bounced back. That’s just not what’s been happening to them. Now they play Michigan, who just loves to run up the score.

"I don’t see how this team has any chance of winning this football game."

Here’s a look at some other key games on the Week 9 college football card:

Washington (-10.5) at Utah

Also sitting at 7-0, Washington opens as a double-digit favorite at Utah, a particularly tough place to play – the Utes have won 10 of their last 11 home games.

"Washington has answered every question. But this will be their first really big test," Bogdanovich said. "Utah will be ready for them."

Utah is 7-1 this season, its only loss coming at Cal, but Avello’s not sold, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They won at UCLA on Saturday but in doing so, they gave up 45 points – and that was against back-up Bruins quarterback Mike Fafaul.

"I don’t think they’re as good as they were last year, and the problem is you don’t want to play catch up against this Washington team," Avello said.

Avello, whose shop bounced between 10.5 and 11 in early wagering on this Pac-12 matchup, said of the line, "Is the number a little high? It seems a little high, just because the perception of Utah at home and Utah being a pretty good team over the last few years. But maybe this Washington team is something special."

Bogdanovich added, "I’d like to see it go higher. I wouldn’t mind being on the dog."

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-8 )

In Nebraska, we have another 7-0 team, but one who isn’t as good as their record suggests, at least according to Bogdanovich and the rest of the betting market, The Cornhuskers haven’t beaten much yet.

"They’ve had the nicest schedule you could ever ask for," said Bogdanovich "Overrated probably isn’t the right word, but I don’t think they’re as good as their (No. 7) ranking, let’s put it that way. Obviously, the point spread indicates that. They’re undefeated and they’re getting 8."

The Wynn opened Wisconsin -7.5 and went to -8, while William Hill opened -8 and moved to -9.

Avello has been a believer in the Badgers all season, but he stresses that they have trouble scoring. That’s typically not a good quality for a team being asked to lay over a touchdown against a solid opponent. Also, this also looks like a tough spot for Wisconsin.

"Wisconsin is coming of brutally physical games. Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan – bang, bang, bang – and now you’ve gotta get back up for another top-10 team," Bogdanovich said. "Nebraska is getting them at a good time because they’re coming off those wars, and those take a toll."

He added, "(Mike) Riley’s a very good coach. Now you’re getting more than a touchdown with Riley against a pretty vanilla offense of Wisconsin. So it’s probably a take, but I think Wisconsin wins the game."

Clemson (-4.5) at Florida State

Clemson opened -3.5 at the Wynn and was bet up to -4.5 on Monday, while most Vegas shops were dealing -4.

The Tigers are 7-0 but probably fortunate to be.

"Clemson has not been playing their best football," Avello said. "They seem to be escaping." The bookmaker, of course, is referring to narrow wins over Auburn, Louisville and N.C. State.

They’re still deserving of their road favorite status against the Seminoles, though.

"Florida State hasn’t played well enough to not be the 'dog against Clemson," Bogdanovich said.

Bogdanovich believes Clemson has the coaching edge in this matchup, and both bookmakers alluded to a big experience gap at quarterback.

"Offensively, (FSU is) struggling," Avello said. "I think it’s a quarterback who’s young (freshman Deondre Francois). I think he’s going to be okay overall, but right now he’s having a rough time finding himself."

Added Bogdanovich, "I think Clemson’s a little better coached. And DeShaun Watson has been on the big stage a million times; he won’t make any stupid mistakes on the road. If Florida State plays a clean game , they can win, but they’re going to have to play a clean game."

Georgia vs. Florida (-7)

The Wynn seesawed between its opening number of Florida -6.5 and -7 through the first 23 hours of wagering, while the Westgate SuperBook opened -7.5 and moved it down to -7.

Georgia has wallowed in mediocrity in Kirby Smart’s first season, its most recent game a 17-16 loss as two-touchdown favorites at home to Vanderbilt. That uninspiring effort "drove this line up a little bit," Avello said.

Florida has won the last two meetings of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Avello thinks recent scheduling quirks could help the Gators. With the postponement of their game against LSU and last week’s bye, they’ve played just once in the last three weeks

"Any injuries or anything they wanted to work on, they’ve had that opportunity to work on," he said.

Early lines moves

Here are games that saw the point spread move 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Akron vs. Buffalo
Opening line: Akron -15
After 23 hours: Akron -17

Western Kentucky vs. Florida Atlantic
Opening line: Western Kentucky -17.5
After 23 hours: Western Kentucky -21

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Opening line: West Virginia -1.5
After 23 hours: West Virginia -4

Northwestern vs. Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -22.5
After 23 hours: Ohio State -24.5

Rice vs. Louisiana Tech
Opening line: Louisiana Tech -23.5
After 23 hours: Louisiana Tech -27.5

Here are games that saw the point spread move 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Washington State vs. Oregon State
Opening line: Washington State -17
After 23 hours: Washington State -14

Old Dominion vs. UTEP
Opening line: Old Dominion -6
After 23 hours: Old Dominion -4

ACC Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Duke at Georgia Tech

Another noon time kick for the Ramblin' Wreck. Man, do their fans just love that! If the fans were playing, they'd be awfully angry and ready for this one. Will the Jackets be as fired up as their fanbase? Ga. Tech is just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven ACC games, and 4-11-1 ATS in their past 16 games overall. They're installed as a touchdown favorite against the Jekyll and Hyde Blue Devils, who either show up and play tremendous football, or show up and repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot (see the Virginia game, for instance). The Blue Devils have been better on the road than at home this season, winning outright as a 19 1/2-point 'dog at Notre Dame, and giving Louisville a huge scare last time out Oct. 14, losing 24-14 as 35-point underdogs. Duke is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 road outings, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight conference tilts. Duke is also 3-7 ATS in their past 10 trips down to Bobby Dodd in the shadow of The Varsity (Whadda ya have?!?!? #slawdogs). The 'under' has hit in four straight in this series, and four in a row in Atlanta. The 'under' is 6-1 overall for the Blue Devils, who are averaging just 15.7 PPG over their past three on offense.

Louisville at Virginia

The Cards shuffle off to Charlottesville for a date with the Cavaliers. This line opened at 27 1/2 and has quickly climbed to 31 1/2 as of Wednesday AM, as bettors are giving no respect to UVA in their home barn. The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine games, and 28-12-1 ATS in their past 41 on the road. But the Cavaliers have been no slouch against the spread, going 7-2 ATS in their past nine league games, while posting a respectable 6-2 ATS mark in their past eight against teams with a winning overall record. UVA is also 9-3-1 ATS in their past 13 games overall. They were a double-digit 'dog at Louisville last season, and Virginia covered in a 38-31 loss Nov. 14. In their past nine games as a double-digit underdog, Virginia is an impressive 8-1 ATS, although their eight-game cover streak as a double-digit 'dog was snapped last week against North Carolina.

Boston College at North Carolina State

Boston College remains winless in the conference, as their conference losing skid reached 12 games last week at home against Syracuse, the last team the Eagles beat in ACC play. The streak isn't expected to end Saturday, as the Wolfpack enter as 15-point favorites. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games, but they're 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven in conference and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. N.C. State was whipped on the road at Louisville last week, but they return home where they're 4-0 ATS in the past four and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall. The Eagles haven't had a lot of success at Carter-Finley, going 1-4 ATS in their past five meetings, with the favorite 5-2 ATS in the past seven and the home team 9-2 ATS in the past 11 in this series.

Army at Wake Forest

Army heads to the state of North Carolina for the second time this season, and they'll encounter much fairer weather than their last visit. The Black Knights dropped a 13-6 decision at Duke Oct. 8 in the heavy rain and wind of Hurricane Matthew, and they enter this one with three losses in the past four, while also going 1-3 ATS during the span. Wake has cooled after their sizzling 4-0 SU start, going 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS over the past three outings. That lone win was their only home game, a 28-9 pounding of Syracuse Oct. 8. Army enters 8-23-1 ATS in their past 32 road games, while the Deacs are 6-2 ATS in their past eight against independents. All signs point to a low-scoring battle, as the under is 4-0 in Army's past four vs. ACC foes, and 4-1 in their past five road games. The under is also 21-7 in Army's past 28 against winning teams. The under is 5-0 in Wake's past five against Indy's, 14-3 in their past 17 in October, 14-6-1 in their past 21 at BB&T and 39-19-1 in their past 59 overall. The total opened at 41 1/2 and is holding steady at that number as of Wednesday morning.

Miami-Florida at Notre Dame

It's the Disappointment Bowl in South Bend, as Catholics vs. Convicts doesn't have the same ring to it anymore. And this might be the only bowl Notre Dame plays in if they do not start ticking off some wins in a hurry. The Irish opened as a one-point favorite, but find themselves as 2 1/2-point underdogs as of Wednesday AM. The Canes look good to someone sinking plenty of bread on them, but Miami is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing record and they're 0-5 ATS in their past five against independents. Notre Dame is still 8-2 ATS in their past 10 at home against a team with a winning road record, and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 in the month of October. Of course, the Irish are also 1-4 ATS in their past five, 1-4 ATS in their past five against the ACC and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark.

Clemson at Florida State

The Tigers hit the road for Tallahassee looking to put a spear through the hearts of the Seminoles in the marquee game of the entire college football weekend. Like the weekend the Seminoles headed into Miami on a two-game conference losing streak, they can resurrect their season with a huge win, and this one is at home. Of course, lately that hasn't meant a lot, as the Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their past eight at The Doak against teams with a winning road record. Clemson has covered four of their past five league games, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. The road team has been impressive in this series, too, going 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in their past five visits to Tally, while going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 in this series. The 'over' is 5-2 in Clemson's past seven on the road, but the 'under' is 5-2 in their past seven overall, while the 'under' is 13-6 in the past 19 for FSU at home and 5-1 in their past six league games. In the past eight meetings in Tallahassee, the 'over is 6-2 in this series.

Bye Weeks: North Carolina, Syracuse

Big 12 Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Kansas State at Iowa State

The Wildcats head to Jack Trice as touchdown favorites against the Cyclones, looking to keep their aspirations of a bowl game alive while dealing I-State the final nail in the coffin of their bowl chances for 2016. If K-State is to win and cover in this one, they'll have to break a few trends. The Wildcats are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven on the road, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six on a grass surface. Conversely, the Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their past five in Ames, 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five on grass and 5-2 ATS in their past seven league games. However, the Cyclones are also just 2-5-2 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 overall against teams with a winning mark. K-State is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five in this series, and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five trips to Ames, with the underdog going 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine in the series.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State

Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineers put their unblemished record and Top 10 ranking on the line in Stillwater against a two-loss, but still very dangerous, Oklahoma State team. The Mountaineers are favored by four points, but they have a lot of negative trends going against them. While they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven Big 12 games, they're also just 2-6 ATS in their past eight road outings, 2-7 ATS in their past nine against winning teams and 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road against a team with a winning home mark. OK State has had their own issues against winning teams, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven in such situations, while going 1-5 ATS in their past six following a straight up win. If you're looking at the total, the trends are complete opposites for the two sides. The 'under' is 17-4 in West Virginia's past 21 conference tilts, and 21-7 in their past 28 overall while going 5-1 in their past six against winning teams. The over is 9-1 in OK State's past 10 conference tilts, 4-1 in their past five overall and 63-30-2 in their past 95 at Boone Pickens.

Texas Tech at Texas Christian

The Red Raiders look to rebound after being on the short end of last weekend's video-game-like score and loss against Oklahoma. TCU was whitewashed at West Virginia, and look to get back on track as well. It's not often the Horned Frogs have had three losses in a season, let alone three losses before the leaves have fully turned. The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their past seven in conference, and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, although they're a dismal 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning overall mark. TCU has been struggling against the number, going 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall, 0-4 ATS in their past four league games and 0-4 ATS in their pst four against teams with a losing overlal record. TCU is favored by more than a touchdown at home, but the Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series.

Baylor at Texas

Baylor has been a popular betting choice this week, as they head to Austin favored by just a field goal. The public has bet up the Bears slightly, and they're sure to get more attention the rest of the week as they enter unbeaten, while the Longhorns have four losses and appear to be in disarray. Remember, though, the Bears are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings while going 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a losing overall record. For all of their faults and difficulties, the Longhorns are still an impressive 6-1 ATS in their past seven at home, while rebounding nicely after a loss to go 5-2 ATS in their past seven after a setback. Baylor has dominated this series lately, though, going 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to Austin, 5-1 ATS in the past six overall and the road team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight in the series.

Kansas at Oklahoma

Kansas is on prime time Saturday night. It's not because of them. They head to Norman as 40-point underdogs against a Sooners team with still plenty to play for as a Top 15 team in the nation. The Jayhawks have been awful against the number lately, going 7-23-1 ATS in their past 31 road outings, 5-16 ATS in their past 21 overall and 1-5 ATS in their past six league outings. Oklahoma has straight-up losses to Houston and Ohio State, but they are an impressive 8-3 ATS in their past 11 inside the Big 12, and 20-9 ATS in their past 29 at home against a team with a losing road record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, with the favorite 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Kansas has covered just three times in the past 10 meetings in this series.

Pac-12 Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Washington at Utah

Washington puts its unblemished record and playoff hopes on the line at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City against the No. 16 Utes. The Huskies enter as 10-point favorites, but if they hope to win and cover, they'll need to shut down RB Joe Williams (nice name, eh?!?!). Williams rumbled for a school record 332 rushing yards with four touchdowns at UCLA last weekend. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Utah is 4-0 SU at home this season, and 2-0 ATS in their past two in SLC. However, the Utes are 0-4 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning road record.

Arizona State at Oregon

The nightmare season continues for Oregon, as they dropped their fifth consecutive game last weekend at Cal. The Ducks, who are 0-6-1 ATS through seven games, are actually favored by 7 1/2 points in this game over the Sun Devils. Arizona State picked up the backdoor cover against Washington State at home, but lost on their home turf. They look to rebound after a second straight loss, and also avenge a 61-55 triple-overtime loss last season in Tempe. The Sun Devils are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their past nine against teams with a losing overall record, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight league games. However, they are just 1-5 ATS in their past six road outings, and 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 on fieldturf. Still, the Ducks cannot seem to get out of their own way, going 0-8-1 ATS in their past nine dating back to last season, and 0-5 ATS in their past five at Autzen. They're also just 0-3-1 ATS in their past four against winning teams. The Sun Devils are 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine meetings with the Ducks, but they haven't faced an Oregon team this poor in quite some time.

Washington State at Oregon State

Oregon State faces a team from the Evergreen State of Washington for the second consecutive weekend. The visiting Cougars of Washington State opened as 15 1/2-point favorite, but that line has quickly moved down to 13. The Beavers haven't had a lot of success on the field this season, but they have been cover kings. The Beavs are 3-0 ATS in their past three, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall. Oregon State is an impressive 3-0 ATS in their three home games against FBS opponents. The Cougars started off with an unimpressive loss to FCS Eastern Washington, but they have come alive to run their record to 4-0 SU in the conference, keeping pace with rival Washington in a two-horse race in the North Division. The Cougars have covered 13 of their past 17 games, and 10 of their past 13 inside the league. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their past five, but 8-17 ATS in their past 25 home games and 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home against a team with a winning road record.

Stanford at Arizona

In late-night action, Stanford looks to save its season against lowly Arizona. Another setback might put their bowl hopes in jeopardy, something that seems unbelievable considering they were just a Top 10 team a few weeks ago. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their past six road games, and 17-7 ATS in their past 24 games overall while going 12-5 ATS in their past 17 conference games. While those are impressive numbers, a lot of that production has come in much better times. Over the past four games the Cardinal have covered just once in the past four, a road game at Notre Dame two weeks ago. Their offense has struggled mightily, averaging a dismal 11.0 PPG in the past four. If they can get Christian McCaffrey healthy and back performing near his standards, they shouldn't have a problem covering a 5 1/2-point number. Arizona has covered just once in seven games this season, and their defense is allowed 28 or more points in five straight games, including 35 or more in the past four outings. The 'over' has hit in four of the past five for the 'Cats. Stanford is 5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Tucson, while going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings overall. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series.

Bye Weeks: Colorado, UCLA

NCAAF Week 9

TCU beat Texas Tech 82-27/55-52 last two years, gaining a ridiculous 750-785 TY. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games; Red Raiders lost two of last three visits here, with average total in last two played here, 109.0. Yes, 109. Frogs are 10-4 in last 14 games as a home favorite, but 0-2 this year. Tech allowed 52.7 pts/game the last three games, 1,504 TY in last two; they’ve scored 50+ points in four games this year, are 2-2 in those games. Red Raiders are 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog. Three of last four TCU games stayed under; over is 4-2 in Tech games. Home favorites are 8-4 vs spread in Big X games.

Florida State is a home underdog for first time in five years; Seminoles won last two games vs Miami/Wake Forest, holding them to 528 TY, 25 points. Home side won eight of last nine Clemson-Florida State games; Tigers lost eight of last nine visits to Tallahassee, losing last four by 6-12-3-14 points, though Clemson did cover four of last five visits here (all as underdog). Seminoles won three of last four series games, but they’re thin this year and looked tired before their bye. Clemson is 4-7 in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Under is 5-2 in Clemson games, 3-0 in last three Seminole games.

Kansas State won its last eight games with Iowa State (underdogs 5-2-1 vs spread). Wildcats won 32-28/27-21 in last two visits here. K-State is 0-3 on road this year, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road favorite. Iowa State lost last three games despite leading all three games at the half, allowing 533 yds, 36.7 pts/game— they had last week off. Cyclones are 14-16-1 in last 31 games as a home dog, 1-0 this year. Under is 4-1 in last five K-State games, 1-4 in Cyclones’ last five games. Big X home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.

West Virginia is 6-0, winning its only road game 48-17 at Texas Tech; WVU is 6-6-1 as road favorite under Holgorsen, 1-0 this year. Oklahoma State won its last three games, scoring 43.7 pts/game; Cowboys are 3-7 in last ten games as a home underdog- they lost 30-27 here to Central Michigan, 35-24 at Baylor. Home side lost last two West Virginia-OSU games; WVU ran ball for 210-255 yards in last two meetings- they split last two visits to Stillwater. Mountaineers’ last three games stayed under the total; four of last five OSU games went over the total.

Notre Dame lost four of last five games with only win 50-33 over Syracuse on a neutral field; Irish are 3-2 as home underdog under Kelly- they lost last three home games SU, to Mich State, Duke and Stanford, three mediocre teams. Irish crushed Miami 41-3 in last meeting, but that was in 2012. Hurricanes scored 16 pts/game in losing last three games after a 4-0 start; ‘canes allowed 13 sacks in their losses, are 2-1 on road, winning at App State, Ga Tech. Miami is 8-4 in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-0 this year. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-2 vs spread.

Texas lost four of last five games, amid rumors that coach Strong is on hot seat; Longhorns are 4-3-1 as home underdogs under Strong, 2-0 this year- they’re 3-0 SU at home, scoring 39.3 pts/game. Baylor won four of last six games with Texas, winning two of last three visits here, covering last four trips to Austin. Bears (-14) covered only game in last 20 years as road favorite vs Texas, beating Longhorns 28-7 two years ago; they’re 4-11-2 in last 17 games as road favorite, 0-2 this season. Underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine series games. Four of five Baylor games stayed under.

Nebraska is getting nine points despite being 7-0, with wins at Northwestern (24-13), Indiana (27-22); Cornhuskers are 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Wisconsin won four of last five games with Nebraska, pounding Huskers 59-24/48-17 in last two games played here. Nebraska covered last five series games. Badgers had tough games with Ohio State/Iowa last two weeks; they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Last five Cornhusker games, four of last five Wisconsin games stayed under total. Big 14 home favorites are 5-11 vs spread.

Florida is 5-1 but has played very soft schedule, with loss at Tennessee (led 21-3 at half) only tough team they’ve played- their LSU game was pushed back a month. Gators are 13-5 in last 18 games with Georgia, winning last two, 38-20/27-3; Florida ran ball for 258-418 yards last two years. Georgia lost three of last four games, losing last game at home to Vandy- they allowed TD on opening kickoff; Dawgs are 2-7-1 in last ten games as an underdog, 1-1 this year. Favorites are 5-2-1 vs spread in series; Florida covered four of last five as a series favorite.

Ole Miss got thrashed by LSU’s ground game LW, is expected to announce a self-imposed bowl ban for this year, making them unplayable for rest of season. Rebels scored 45. pts/game in its three I-A home games, with only loss to Alabama. Auburn won/covered its last four games, with 38-14 win (-3.5) at Miss State, in their only road game of season so far; Tigers are 4-2 as road favorites under Malzahn- they won nine of last 12 games vs Ole Miss- favorites covered five of last six series games. Tigers won seven of last nine visits to Oxford. Auburn covered three of last four as road favorite in series. Ole Miss is 6-2 as a home dog under Freeze.

Houston lost two of last three games, losing 38-16 as a 21-point favorite at SMU LW; they’re a disappointed team, 6-9-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Central Florida is 4-3 after being winless LY; Knights scored 41.3 pts/game in winning last three road games- they’re 7-5 in last 12 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. UCF lost 59-10 to Houston LY, giving up 366 rushing yards in just second Cougar win in last seven series games. UCF won 17-12/40-33 in last two visits here. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last four series games. Four of last five Houston games went over.

Wyoming is much-improved at 5-2, scoring 38.3 pts/game in three-game win streak; are young Cowboys ready for Boise State team that won its last ten games with Wyoming, covering three of last four? Broncos are 4-1 vs spread in winning last five visits to Laramie, with four of five wins by 22+ points. Boise is used to taking opponents’ best shot; they’re 31-14 in last 45 games as a road favorite, 9-5 under Harsin, 2-1 this year- they’re 3-0 on road this year, winning by 35-14-28 points, by Wyoming is by far best team they’ve visited this year. Mountain West home underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.

Washington is 7-0 but won 35-28 (-17) at Arizona in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-2 as road favorites under Petersen- they scored 51.7 pts/game in last three games. Utah scored 35.7 pts/game in winning its last three games, but gave up 464 PY in 52-45 win at UCLA LW. Utes beat BYU/USC at home this year, are 7-1, with only loss 28-23 at Cal; since 2012, they’re 4-2 as a home underdog. Underdogs won last three Washington-Utah games SU; Utes (+2) won 34-23 in Seattle LY, even though Huskies outgained them 381-346. Utah ran ball for 360 yards in Rose Bowl last week.

Oregon lost its last five games, allowed 689 rushing yards in last two games and is struggling terribly while playing a freshman QB; their defense was on field for 116 plays in Berkeley last Friday. Ducks were outgained by 692 yards in their last three games, but they won nine in a row vs Arizona State; favorites are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven series games. Sun Devils lost last three visits to Eugene, by 14-23-12 points. ASU lost three of last four games, allowing 77 points in last two games, losses at Colorado (40-16), at home to Wazzu (37-32). Pac-12 home favorites are 9-7 against the spread.

Armadillosports.com

Big Ten Report - Week 9
By ASAWins.com

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-8.5)

Wisconsin – The Badgers opened as a 7-point favorite here and within 24 hours the line was up to -8.5 & -9. Wisconsin comes in 5-2, but their losses have come by 7 points each vs Ohio State & Michigan. They dominated last week’s game vs Iowa more than the final score of 17-9 might indicate.

Wisconsin outgained Iowa by nearly 200 yards holding the Hawks to just 3.9 yards per play. The UW offense pushed the ball inside the Iowa 35-yard line on 4 of their 5 first half possessions but had just 7 points at half. They missed a FG, punted from the Iowa 35, and fumbled into the endzone from the 1-yard line on 3 of those possessions. They could have and should have been up big at half.

Wisconsin shut down the Iowa running game to just 83 yards making it the ninth time in the last 14 games the Badger defense has held their opponent to under 100 yards rushing. They are 9-0 in those games. Iowa was held without a TD and UW has now allowed just 8 TD’s the entire season in 7 games.

That defense has been great but will be missing their leading tackler for the remainder of the season. LB Jack Cichy tore a pectoral muscle on Saturday and won’t play again this season. They have been ravaged at the LB spot this season as starting inside LB Orr was lost for the season in the LSU game, LB Biegel sat out 2 games and returned vs Iowa, and OLB Baun, who replaced Biegel while he was out, is also injured and unable to play.

Nebraska – Unlike Wisconsin, who has played a brutally tough schedule, Nebraska is undefeated one could argue they have played the easiest slate in the Big Ten. Their best win so far this year was probably a 35-32 game at home vs Oregon. How good was that win though? Since that game the Ducks have lost 4 straight and are just 2-5 on the season. The Huskers' Big Ten wins have come against Northwestern (when the Cats weren’t playing well), Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue.

Last Saturday they were behind 14-10 at half to a Purdue team that had just fired their coach earlier in the week. That game was in Lincoln. The bounced back in the 2nd half and picked up a 27-14 win but were not impressive doing it. Could it have been a look ahead spot against a bad Purdue team? Sure. One alarming stat was Nebraska’s running game putting up “only” 157 yards on 4.2 YPC. That might not seem terrible but let’s not forget that Purdue allowed all three of their Big Ten opponents (Maryland, Illinois, and Iowa) ALL to rush for over 300 yards this year.

The Huskers offense could get a boost for this game as one of their better playmakers, WR Jordan Westerkamp, is expected back after missing the last two games. They are really banged up on the offensive line however with both starting tackles (Gates & Knevel) injured but expected to play.

Last Year – Wisconsin (-2.5) won last year in Lincoln 23-21 kicking a field goal with just 4 seconds remaining to get the victory. In their most recent game here at Camp Randall, in 2014, the Badgers cruised to a 59-24 win and UW RB Melvin Gordon rushed for over 400 yards.

Inside the Numbers - These two have met 5 times since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011. The Badgers are 4-1 SU & ATS in those games. In their 3 games in Madison, the Badgers have dominated by scores of 59-24, 70-31, and 48-17. That’s a combined score of 177-72 in favor of Wisconsin. Before 2000, Nebraska was a 7-point or more underdog just SIX total times. Since 2000, they’ve been an underdog of 7 or more 20 times. In those 26 games, the Huskers are just 4-22 SU (13-13 ATS) obviously pulling very few upsets.

Michigan (-24) at Michigan State

Michigan State – Michigan opened as a 21 point favorite on the road in this huge rivalry and it has since pushed up to -24. That is the largest pointspread in this storied series since 1992 when Michigan was favored by 27.5 at home vs Sparty. Just two years ago, in 2014, in their most recent home game vs the Wolverines, Michigan State was favored by 16.5. That’s a massive 40 POINT SWING on the spread in just 2 seasons. That speaks to how much these two programs have changed in a very short period of time.

Last week MSU made it 5 consecutive losses all as a favorite. The Spartans lost last Saturday at Maryland 28-17. Freshman QB Brian Lewerke got his 2nd straight start, but unlike a week earlier when he was pulled in the 2nd half vs Northwestern, Mark Dantonio decided to keep him in the entire game. This was actually a bit of a surprise as former starter and senior Tyler O’Conner came in the 2nd half vs Northwestern and led MSU to points on 3 of his 6 drives. He didn’t see the field this week.

Lewerke and the MSU offense put up yardage (426) but simply had trouble putting points on the board (17). In the 18 offensive possessions over the last two games where Lewerke was under center, Michigan State has scored just 3 TD’s and 2 FG’s.

The defense hasn’t helped the cause as they are allowing 30 PPG on the season. The Spartans are definitely banged up right now, especially in the defensive backfield, and “because of that”, head coach Mark Dantonio decided to not release a depth chart this week for the first time in his career. However, many are speculating this is simply a jab at Harbaugh and Michigan who haven’t released a depth chart all season long.

Michigan – Going into the 2008 season, Michigan had dominated this series going winning 21 of the previous 28 meetings. That script has flipped with MSU now winning 7 of the last 8. In fact, only one player on the entire Michigan roster has ever played in a game where the Wolves came out on top vs MSU. That’s it. Just one. You can bet Harbaugh and company have been patiently waiting for this one after losing on a blocked punt return for a TD as time expired last year.

In their last 2 trips to East Lansing (2013 & 2014) Michigan tallied only one total TD and just 13 total yards rushing. That’s in two games. It looks like it might be Michigan State that has the offensive struggles this season. We touched upon the MSU productivity with Lewerke at QB and that was against the defenses of Northwestern and Maryland, not Michigan. The Wolverines have allowed only 8 defensive TD’s in 7 games this season. They lead the nation in total defense (205 YPG), scoring defense (10 PPG allowed), 3rd down percentage defense (13% success rate for opponents), and pass defense (111 YPG allowed).

Last week against Illinois Michigan won 41-8 allowing just 6 first downs and 172 yards of total offense. It was the 4th consecutive game the Maize & Blue defense allowed 10 points or less and allowed fewer than 200 yards of offense. The Michigan offense is no slouch either scoring 40+ points in every game but one this season (Wisconsin).

Last Year – Everyone remembers this one. MSU blocks a Michigan punt on the final play of the game and returns it 38 yards for the game winning TD as time expires. MSU wins 27-23 as a 7-point dog. The last game played in East Lansing in 2014 MSU dominated 35-11 as 16.5 point favorites.

Inside the Numbers – MSU has dominated this series as of late going a perfect 8-0 ATS the last 8 seasons (7-1 SU record). Our database tells us that MSU has been a home dog of more than 20 only ONCE in the last 37 years! That was vs Michigan (-26) back in 1991. The last time MSU was a double digit underdog at home was in 2006 vs Ohio State. This is just the 2nd time in the last 22 years the Spartans have been more than a 10 point dog at home.

Minnesota (-10) at Illinois

Illinois – The “up in the air” status of QB Wes Lunt is keeping this line off the board at many places. The few spots that do have it are pegging Minnesota as a 10-point favorite which honestly seems quite high especially if Lunt is able to go. Lunt did not play at all in last week’s 41-8 loss at Michigan.

The Illini were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game and Lunt’s replacement, Jeff George Jr. completed just 4 of his 15 pass attempts. George is Illinois’ 3rd string QB behind Lunt and Chayce Crouch who started their previous game but is now out with an injury to his shoulder. Before his start at Michigan, the last time George was under center at the beginning of a game was his senior year in H.S. (2013) playing in the Indiana State Championship game.

If Lunt’s back isn’t ready to go on Saturday, George will get a second consecutive start. He’ll need to drum up something for an Illini offense that is averaging only 19 PPG in Big Ten play and only 129 YPG passing vs conference opponents. They’ve scored just 7 offensive TD’s in their 4 Big Ten games and 5 of those scores came against the two worst defenses in the league (Purdue & Rutgers).

Since their opener vs Murray State, the Illinois defense has allowed 30+ points in every game but one (Rutgers). They will have to try and improve on that with starting LB Tre Watson on the bench for the first half as he was ejected for targeting at Michigan last week. Minnesota – The Gophs got a serious scare last week when they were almost upset but Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights came into the game having been outscored 174-14 in their four Big Ten games so far this season. They “exploded” for 32 points, more than double their Big Ten total on the season, vs. a Minnesota defense that had actually been quite solid this year.

Before a lethargic Rutgers offense rolled up big numbers last week, the Gopher defense had allowed only 7, 10, and 26 (in regulation) points in their three Big Ten games this season. The Minnesota offense looked great to start the game last week. They scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions and nearly half their yardage for the game came on those 3 possessions. Up 21-3 at the end of the first quarter, the Minnesota offense would muster only 2 field goals the rest of the way including the game winner with only a few seconds remaining. Their only TD after the first quarter was a 94-yard kickoff return with 6:15 remaining in the third quarter.

In a strange situation, two of Minnesota’s top 3 CB’s including their best DB (KiAnte Hardin), were unable to play in last week’s home game but can play this week at Illinois. That’s because there are 6 Gopher players who were served a restraining order last week to keep them away from TCF Bank Stadium due to an alleged incident with a female who is part of the game day operations at the Field. They can, however, play in road games and are available this week if head coach Tracy Claeys decides to use them.

Last Year – Minnesota won this match up 32-23 last year as 4.5 point favorites. Illinois had nearly 100 more total yards in the game but turned the ball over 3 times to just once for the Gophers.

Inside the Numbers – This is the first time the Gophs have been a road favorite this season. Dating back to 1983, Minnesota has been a road favorite 40 times covering 24 of those games. Illinois is just 6-13 ATS in this series dating back to 1992. If this spread holds at -10, the Illini have lost 16 straight games in that situation but they are 9-5 ATS the last 14 in that spot.

Penn State (-11.5) at Purdue

Purdue – The Boilers gave a valiant effort last week under less than ideal circumstances. They went to an undefeated and heavily favored Nebraska team’s home field and led 14-10 at half. That was only a few days after the Boiler brass decided to can their head coach Darrell Hazell who had been on the hot seat for quite some time. Because of the firing, even though we were told the players were in Hazell’s corner and like the head man, it’s highly possible a “weight” was lifted off the player’s shoulders.

All the talk of their coach potentially getting fired was now gone and they could just go out and play. They played fairly well but will that affect continue moving forward or was it a quick reaction that played out in the most recent game after the firing? I guess we’ll all find out sooner than later. The offense looked great in the first half rolling up 234 total yards and 14 points to lead at the break. The problem was, they were stuck in neutral in the 2nd half. After the break Purdue had under 100 yards of offense and didn’t score a point.

On a positive defensive note, the Boilermaker defense who had been run over for almost 1,100 rushing yards in their first 3 Big Ten games only allowed 157 yards on the ground on Saturday. While most have this team buried for the season, they are still 3-4 on the year and a bowl game is not completely out of the equation with “sort of” winnable games coming up against PSU, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Indiana.

Penn State – Can we dare say the word letdown here? Obviously PSU is off their biggest win in years and easily their top win in the James Franklin era. Now they are laying double digits on the road which could be considered a definite “trap” spot for the Nits. Let’s keep this in mind. PSU has played in 20 Big Ten games with Franklin as their head coach and he’s won only four of those games by double digits. Now they are being asked to do so on the road off a monster home win. A game they won at home and was set up perfectly for them to potentially pull an upset.

Let’s remember that OSU played at a rested Wisconsin team a week earlier and now faced a PSU team on the road also off a bye just one week after that physical affair with the Badgers. A very nice spot for the host Nittany Lions. That being said, while it could be argued Wisconsin outplayed Ohio State a week earlier, that was not the case here. Ohio State dominated the stats gaining 413 yards to just 276 for PSU. The Bucks also had a 15:00 minute time of possession edge.

The way the fourth quarter played out was an “everything went right” for PSU situation. After the Lions scored with 13:32 remaining in the 4th quarter to cut OSU’s lead to 21-14 they really did nothing to warrant scoring the game’s final 10 points. From that point on, the Bucks gained 76 yards of total offense while PSU had -1 yards of total offense yet the Nits won on the scoreboard 10-0. A blocked FG returned for TD and blocked punt that led to 3 points were the difference. A crazy thought but its if PSU wins out, which is possible, they could win a share of the Big Ten East Title if Ohio State wins out beating Michigan to end the season.

Last Year – These two have not met since 2013. In that game PSU was a 21 point home favorite and won the game 45-21.

Inside the Numbers – Penn State has won 7 games in a row in this Big Ten series by an average score of 27.5 to 12.5. PSU has not been a double digit road favorite since 2011. Dating back to 1980, the Nittany Lions are a perfect 41-0 SU as a double digit road favorite (22-18-1 ATS). Purdue has lost 9 straight home games as a double digit dog (3-6 ATS).

Northwestern at Ohio State (-27)

Ohio State – This line opened with OSU favored by 21 and has jumped a full 6 points from the opener with the Bucks now favored by 26.5. Bettors are obviously anticipating OSU bouncing back strong from their first loss of the season last week at PSU. Also factoring into the equation could be Ohio State’s “style” points situation as the still have a shot at College Football’s Final 4 but need to win out and doing it convincingly will help.

Last week’s loss at PSU was an extremely tough one to take. Urban Meyer came into the game with a perfect 20-0 record his last 20 roadies and truth be told OSU dominated the game. They outgained Penn State by almost 140 yards and if not for a blocked FG returned for a TD (a 10 point swing) we’re probably talking about a double digit win for the Bucks. How does a team that isn’t used to losing road games, or any games for that matter, respond?

If there is a slight concern on offense it would be why OSU’s running game has fallen off the last 2 games. In their first 5 games, the Buckeyes averaged 323 YPG on the ground. In the last two weeks they tallied 185 and 168 yards rushing vs Wisconsin & Penn State. Defensively they are still among the best in the nation allowing only 8 offensive TD’s in 7 games, including just 2 rushing TD’s.

Northwestern – The Cats offense has had a complete transformation this season. After averaging just 16 PPG over their first four games, Northwestern has now put up 39 PPG over their last three. The Cats have picked up the pace offensively which has helped them accumulate more opportunities to put points on the board. In their last 3 games they’ve run 72, 83, and 88 offensive plays.

In their first four games of the season they topped 72 plays only once and ran 57 plays or less two times. Last week’s offensive output was a tale of two halves. They pounded Indiana for 24 points and well over 300 yards in the first half. In the second half they were held scoreless and didn’t even reach 50 yards of total offense. Because of their recent offensive surge, NW has won 3 straight after losing 3 of their first 4. If their offense had been clicking early, there is a decent chance we’re talking about an undefeated or one loss team right now.

That’s because the defense was playing very well during that early four-game stretch. They allowed only 16 PPG during their first 4 games yet lost 3 of them because of their offensive struggles. Now the defense has gotten worse allowing 28 PPG over their last 3 yet the Cats are 3-0 in that stretch. The defense lost a key player this week when their top defensive back Matt Harris walked away from football due to concussion issues. Harris was one of the better DB’s in the Big Ten but hadn’t played since their week 2 game vs Illinois State.

Last Year – Surprisingly these two have met only once since the 2008 season. That was in 2013 when the Buckeyes topped Northwestern 40-30 as 6.5 points favorites.

Inside the Numbers – To say OSU has dominated this series would be an understatement. Our in-depth data base goes back to 1980 and since then the Buckeyes are 23-1 vs Northwestern including 16-8 ATS. The Cats only win during that time came in 2004 as they upset OSU 33-27 as 11-point underdogs. This is the largest pointspread Northwestern has faced since the 2010 season. The Buckeyes have never lost 2 games in a row under Meyer. They have only lost 4 regular season games since Meyer took over in 2012.

Maryland at Indiana (-5)

Indiana – The Hoosiers started the season winning 3 of their first 4 games and were well on their way to qualifying for a bowl game for the 2nd straight season. If the make it to the post-season, it would be the first time since the 1990 season they have done so in back to back years. However, they have since lost 3 in a row and now sit at 3-4 on the year. We’ve mentioned many times in this column their defense is very solid and the offense is the question mark.

It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to say that about Indiana. Normally the roles are reversed. IU traveled last Saturday to take on a red hot Northwestern team who’s offense is now clicking on all cylinders. The Cats continued to click offensively in the first half last week and took a 24-3 lead into halftime. We were impressed with the resolve of the IU defense as they held NW scoreless after halftime but came up short in the 24-14 loss. After allowing an unacceptable 362 total yards in the first half, IU shut down Northwestern to just 46 second half yards.

Offensively this team continues to struggle getting the ball in the endzone. After scoring at least 30 points nine times last season, IU has now scored 22 or less (in regulation) in four straight games. They moved the ball on Saturday putting up over 400 total yards but had just 14 points to show for it. Last week they moved the ball inside the Northwestern 30-yard line six times and came away with just 12 points on those drives. Starting QB Lagow continues to struggling topping 60% completions only once in the last five games and throwing 11 picks in that six game span.

Maryland – After losing back to back games to Penn State & Minnesota, the Terps got a boost offensively last week with the return of starting QB Perry Hills. He was injured in the first half of the PSU game and missed the Minnesota game. Hills was back under center last week and completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts, including 2 TD’s, in Maryland’s 28-17 win over free falling Michigan State. The game was almost dead even on the stat sheet but MSU had two turnovers, one of which led to a Maryland TD. Neither defense could stop the others run game as both rushed for over 200 yards.

The Terps probably won’t be able to run roughshod over an IU defense that allows just 3.9 YPC so Hills will have to be good again in this one. The Terp defensive backfield is really banged up as they lost starter Darnell Savage early in last week’s game meaning they were down 3 starters in the back end. We’re not sure a struggling IU passing game can take advantage of that or not this week. Every game is obviously important but the Terps are viewing this one as a very key game on their remaining schedule. They need just one more win to become bowl eligible after finishing just 3 wins last season. After their trip to Indiana this week they play Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska the next 3 games before closing out with Rutgers. The next three will be tough so a win this Saturday takes the pressure off.

Last Year – These two have met twice since Maryland joined the league and surprisingly the road team has cruised to an easy victory on each. Last year the Hoosiers won 47-28 on the road and a year earlier Maryland won 37-15 at Indiana.

Inside the Numbers – The Hoosiers have been home favorites twice this season and failed to cover both games. They came into the season on a 23-16 ATS run as a home favorite of more than 3 points. These two have combined for just 2 OVERS this year (12 UNDERS). The Hoosiers are just an 18-37 SU at home off a loss (26-28-1 ATS).

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Central Florida Knights at No. 24 Houston Cougars (-9, 60)

* Freshman McKenzie Milton (960 passing yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions) improved to 2-2 as the Knights' starter after throwing a career-high 317 yards and three touchdowns at Connecticut. Senior Dontravious Wilson has rushed for 371 yards and seven touchdowns, while Milton has plenty of options in the passing game. Tre'Quan Smith leads the team with 23 catches for 360 yards and three scores, tight end Jordan Akins (15 catches, 278 yards, two TDs) is a steady target and freshman Dredrick Snelson (eight catches, 107 yards, TD) is emerging as a threat.

* Greg Ward Jr. has thrown for 2,179 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he ranks fourth nationally with 370.9 yards per game, but the Houston offense has eight turnovers in its past three games. Running back Duke Catalon (279 rushing yards, TD) had 120 total yards versus the Mustangs after missing three games with a concussion. The Cougars are still ranked 13th nationally in total defense (312.1 yards) despite giving up 115 points and 1,247 yards in the past three weeks.

LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as 10-point home favorites and as of Thursday night that point spread was down to -9. The total opened at 56 and has gone up all week - all the way up to 60.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
* Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 games following a straight up loss.

No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3.5, 65)

* The Mountaineers are off to their first 6-0 start since 2006 and have three of the league’s four worst teams - Kansas, Texas and Iowa State - still on the schedule. Quarterback Skyler Howard threw four touchdowns passes against TCU and has completed 66.5 percent of his passes this season for 1,821 yards and 12 scores. Running back Rushel Shell (465 yards, five touchdowns) seeks his third straight 100-yard rushing game, while Justin Crawford (371, three) is expected to play despite an ankle injury.

* The Cowboys’ offense averages 41.1 points per game, good for 14th-best in the nation, on the strength of quarterback Mason Rudolph and a receiving corps that has 10 players averaging 10-plus yards per catch. Rudolph has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,256 yards and 14 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Freshman running back Justice Hill (565 rushing yards, four touchdowns) averages 119 yards in conference play and his next 100-yard game would be a program record fourth for first-year players.

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 3-point road favorite and, despite the spread going as high as 4.5 at one point on Tuesday, they currently sit at 3.5-point favorites. The total opened at 65 and remains at that number on Thursday evening. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 conference games.

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (+24.5, 55)

* Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers were among 16 semifinalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, which is given annually to the best defensive back in college football. Freshman Chris Evans, who leads the Wolverines with 416 rushing yards, is likely to miss Saturday's contest after suffering a concussion in the first quarter of the win against Illinois. Fullback Khalid Hill scored his ninth touchdown of the season before leaving the game in the third quarter with an undisclosed injury but is expected to play Saturday - as is Tyree Kinnel, who also exited that contest early.

* Freshman Brian Lewerke completed only 11-of-24 passes for 156 yards with an interception in the loss to Maryland, and Dantonio revealed Tyler O'Connor - who has started five games this season - was "nicked up" but hopes to have him back in time to face Michigan. Linebacker Riley Bullough was ejected for targeting - his third personal foul of the first 11 minutes - last week but can play from the opening kickoff on Saturday since the infraction took place in the first half. LJ Scott ran for 128 yards against the Terrapins to register his second 100-yard rushing performance of the season and the third of his career.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 21-point faves and throughout the week that line continued to rise and on Thursday night was at 24.5. The total opened at 54 and went up a full point to 55. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Wolverines last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

No. 5 Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (+33, 70)

* Jackson is 92 yards shy of becoming the 15th player - and first quarterback - in school history to run for 1,000 yards; he leads all quarterbacks with 138.7 rushing yards per game and has run and passed for at least one score in a FBS-best 10 straight contests. Senior tight end Cole Hikutini posted a career-high 118 yards receiving on six catches versus the Wolfpack and has managed to accumulate at least 84 yards in three of his last four games. Sophomore Blanton Creque tied a school record with four field goals and set another by scoring 18 points as a kicker - marks good enough to net him ACC Specialist and Co-Rookie of the Week honors.

* Taquan Mizzell was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise listless performance for the Cavaliers against North Carolina, posting his second career 100-yard rushing effort while accounting for 131 of the team's 253 total yards in the 35-14 defeat. Kurt Benkert, who threw for a school-record 421 yards passing against Central Michigan last month, was held to a season-low 126 and has only one passing TD over his last two games after throwing for 13 over his first five outings. Linebacker Micah Kiser (11) and safety Quin Blanding (10.7) lead the ACC in tackles per game - one of only two defensive duos from the same school to rank first and second for their respective conference.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville is one of the country's top public teams right now and their opening advantage of 27.5 was nowhere near high enough for the betting public. Books were forced to raise the line twice per day all week long - eventually settling in as 33-point favorites on Thursday night. The total opened at 69 and went up a full point to 70. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
* Cavaliers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

No. 4 Washington Huskies at No. 16 Utah Utes (+10, 53.5)

* Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has joined the Heisman Trophy race due to his stellar play and the Huskies' rise and he has thrown 26 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin has rushed for a team-best 727 yards while junior wideouts John Ross (34 receptions for 486 yards and nine touchdowns) and Dante Pettis (27 for 457 with eight scores) are enjoying solid seasons. Washington leads the nation with 12 fumble recoveries - junior inside linebacker Keishawn Bierria is the nation's individual leader with five -- behind a sturdy defense allowing just 14.6 points per game but will be without senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (team-high five sacks) due to a foot injury.

* Junior quarterback Troy Williams has accounted for 12 touchdowns (seven passing, five rushing) while passing for 1,725 yards and has heavy motivation to play well against the Huskies. Williams began his college career at Washington and played in five games (one start) in 2014 but wasn't a recruit of current coach Chris Petersen and transferred after the campaign to a junior college before performing well enough to catch Utah's attention and then win the starting job. The defense will be missing injured junior free safety Marcus Williams (three interceptions, two fumble recoveries) but also has been receiving solid contributions from senior cornerback Brian Allen (team-best four interceptions), sophomore strong safety Chase Hansen (team-high 49 tackles) and senior defensive end Hunter Dimich (team-leading six sacks).

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 10.5-point road favorites and by Thursday night that point spread was down to 10. The total opened at 51 and shot all of the way up to 53.5 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 9-0 in Huskies last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-1 in Utes last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

No. 6 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 72)

* Quarterback Seth Russell has completed 101-of-177 passes for 1,470 yards and 16 touchdowns this season and is the school's career leader in pass efficiency (169.2). His top target is junior wide receiver KD Cannon who returned from a groin injury against Kansas to catch three passes for 75 yards, including a 59-yard catch-and-run touchdown, while senior Shock Linwood -- who is the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,962 yards -- anchors a strong running attack that rolled up 246 rushing yards in the win over Kansas. Baylor leads the Big 12 in scoring defense (17.2) and total defense (320.3 yards per game) and is led by junior linebacker Taylor Young, who has a team best 46 tackles and three sacks, and safety Travon Blanchard, a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist who has 29 tackles and three pass breakups.

* The Longhorns have excellent offensive balance and are led by freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, who has passed for 1,722 yards and 15 touchdowns, and junior running back D'Onta Foreman, who leads the Big 12 with 855 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. "When I watch him play, I'm just amazed that a young guy is that mature.," Grobe said of Buechele. "He'll be a great challenge for our defense." The Longhorns' defense, which gave up 45 or more points in four of its first five games, has allowed a total of 30 points in its last two games and is lead by sophomore linebackers Anthony Wheeler (team best 50 tackles) and Malik Jefferson (40 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss).

LINE HISTORY: Baylor began the betting week as 2.5-point road favorites and by the time this cheat sheet was put together they were up a full point to 3.5-point faves. The total hit the board at 69 (hehe...Gronk) and jumped all of the way up to 72. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Texas.

No. 12 Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs (+7.5, 43.5)

* Del Rio returned from a sprained left knee with an uneven performance against Missouri, going 18-for-38 for 236 yards as the Gators used two interception returns for touchdowns to build a 20-0 lead. Several running backs have combined to drive the Florida offense, as the Gators average 4.8 yards per carry and 181 yards per contest. Cornerbacks Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson have combined for seven interceptions on the season, while the Gators lead the SEC and are second in the nation in scoring defense (12 points per game).

* The Bulldogs have played better on defense in their past two games, allowing 31 points total after giving up 24 or more in each of their first five games. Georgia continues to seek consistency on offense, where under freshman quarterback Jacob Eason and a stable of productive running backs the Bulldogs nonetheless rank 12th in the SEC in scoring offense (25.1 points per game). Eason threw for 346 yards against Vanderbilt, with freshmen Riley Ridley and Issac Nauta emerging as go-to threats (the duo combining for 10 catches for 141 yards).

LINE HISTORY: Florida opened at 6.5-point road favorites and rose a full point to 7.5-point faves. The total opened at 43.5 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a bye week.
* Under is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 9-1 in Bulldogs last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Northwestern Wildcats at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-27, 53.5)

* Clayton Thorson passed for 285 yards and three touchdowns in last week's victory over Indiana, giving him nine touchdowns and one interception (and two rushing scores) in the last three games. Justin Jackson has accounted for 82 percent of the team's rushing yardage this season and fell just short of his third straight 100-yard effort versus the Hoosiers. Austin Carr, meanwhile, has gone over 100 yards receiving in four of the last five outings and has scored nine touchdowns, all of them coming in the last six games.

* The Buckeyes have given up 47 points in the last two games after yielding a total of 54 points in the first five games, although the unit still boasts some impressive stats. Ohio State's defense has given up eight touchdowns all year (while scoring four of their own) and has allowed only two rushing scores all season. Curtis Samuel was a bright spot against Penn State with eight catches for 68 yards - both team highs - and a 74-yard touchdown run that helped Ohio State build a 21-7 lead before a disastrous fourth quarter.

LINE HISTORY: Ohio state opened the betting week as 21-point home favorites and that number was definitely not enough for the betting public. Plenty of early Ohio State action bumped that advantage all of the way up to -27. The total opened at 52.5 and went up a point to 53.5 by Thursday. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games in October.
* Under is 8-2 in Buckeyes last 10 conference games.

No. 13 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys (+13.5, 63.5)

* Sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien has passed for 2,064 yards and 15 touchdowns, but his 442-yard outing against BYU was soured by throwing two pick-sixes. Senior receiver Thomas Sperbeck is enjoying a stellar season with 47 receptions for 810 yards and seven touchdowns and his 3,139 career receiving yards are tops in school history after he passed Titus Young (3,063 from 2007-10) during the BYU game. Sophomore nose tackle David Moa has a team-best 6 1/2 sacks and saved the game by blocking BYU's 44-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining.

* Hill, who is the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,437 yards, often carries the Cowboys on his back and the 289-yard performance was the second-highest showing in Wyoming history. Sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has accounted for 15 touchdowns (10 passing, five rushing) while senior receiver Tanner Gentry has been solid with 38 receptions for 612 yards and five scores. The Cowboys allow 30.3 points per game and feature a solid player in sophomore free safety Andrew Wingard (team-best 75 tackles), while sophomore strong safety Marcus Epps and sophomore cornerback Antonio Hull each have three interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: Boise State opened as 14.5-point road favorites and throughout the week that spread was reduced to 13.5. The total opened at 61.5 and jumped two full points to 63.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
* Over is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 conference games.

Kansas Jayhawks at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-40, 67.5)

* The Jayhawks opened the season with a 55-6 rout of Rhode Island of the FCS, but have since dropped six straight, with the closest being a near-miss home loss (24-23) to TCU on Oct. 8. Kansas has used a pair of quarterbacks this season, but redshirt-junior Montell Cozart – who started last week’s 44-20 loss to visiting Oklahoma State after not playing the previous two contests – has been the most effective, throwing for 831 yards and seven touchdowns in five games. As aforementioned, the Jayhawks rank ninth in the Big 12, allowing 36.9 points per contest, but defensive end Dorance Armstrong Jr. ranks ninth nationally with seven sacks and Kansas ranks eighth nationally with 8.4 tackles for loss per outing.

* In just the opposite of the Big 12 defensive stats, the Sooners rank in the FBS top eight in scoring (43.9 points per game) and total offense (572.3 yards) and amazingly matched Texas Tech with 854 total yards. Baker Mayfield threw for 545 yards and set a school single-game record with seven passing TDs in the contest while tailback Joe Mixon, filling in for the injured Samaje Perine, became the first Oklahoma player to top 200 rushing yards (263) and 100 receiving yards (114) in a game and sizzling wide receiver Dede Westbrook hauled in nine passes for 202 yards and a pair of TDs. Outside linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo has seven sacks and inside linebacker Jordan Evans ranks fourth in the conference with 7.7 tackles per game for the Sooners, who to their credit, have faced five top-34 total offenses to date in Texas Tech, Ohio State, TCU, Houston and Texas.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as massive 40.5-point home favorites over the visiting Jayhawks and by Thursday that spread was down to -40. The total opened at 67 and went up by a half point to 67.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Jayhawks last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 10-2 in Sooners last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

No. 6 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers (-9, 43)

* Armstrong, who can move into sole possession of third place in school history for career wins by a quarterback this weekend (tied with three others at 29), needs 11 yards to become the 11th player in conference history to reach 10,000 yards of total offense, and he's also 245 yards away from breaking the school's career total offense record. Jordan Westerkamp (back) will return from a two-game absence and tie Nebraska legend Johnny Rodgers (143) for third place in school annals with his next catch. Leading rusher Terrell Newby is 129 yards shy of becoming the 29th Cornhusker to run for 2,000 career yards and has amassed 235 of his 324 rushing yards over the last three contests in the fourth quarter.

* The Badgers will be without linebacker Jack Cichy (team-high 60 tackles) after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle against Iowa, making him the latest injury casualty to a unit that already lost inside linebacker Chris Orr for the season. They will also be without nose tackle Olive Sagapolu and possibly even cornerbacks Derrick Tindal and Natrell Jamerson. Corey Clement is the Big Ten's second-leading rusher (102.8 yards) and has compiled 298 yards on 60 carries over the last two games. Senior quarterback Bart Houston, who lost his job to freshman Alex Hornibrook in mid-September, saw his first action in four games versus the Hawkeyes, throwing for Wisconsin's only passing touchdown on the team's first possession.

LINE HISTORY: Wisconsin opened the betting week as 7.5-point home favorites and by Thursday that number was up to -9. The total opened at 43 and did not move all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Badgers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-0 in Cornhuskers last 6 conference games.
* Under is 13-3 in Badgers last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

No. 17 Auburn Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+4, 63)

* Sophomore running back Kerryon Johnson (ankle) could return to the lineup to add another major threat to a rushing attack that ranks third in the nation at 302.9 yards per contest. Sophomore Kamryn Pettway has recorded 361 of his 697 rushing yards and five of his six touchdowns on the ground the past two games for the Tigers. Sophomore quarterback Sean White has been very efficient, completing 68.5 percent of his passes with seven TD strikes and two interceptions while senior Tony Stevens has a team-high 24 receptions.

* Kelly threw for 381 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 27-19 victory over Auburn last year and is completing 62.2 percent of his passes this season with 15 TDs and seven interceptions. Kelly has plenty of weapons but his main target is senior Evan Engram, who leads all tight ends in the nation in receiving yards with 605 on 40 receptions with five scores. Senior Akeem Judd leads the ground attack with 382 yards and four TDs, although he has reached 100 in a game just once this season and Kelly is second on the team in rushing (269).

LINE HISTORY: Auburn opened the week as 2.5-point road favorites and by Thursday that number was up to 4 points. The total hit the betting board at 63 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 conference games.
* Under is 8-0 in Rebels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Mississippi.

No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks (+13.5, 50.5)

* The Volunteers' hopes for a spot in the College Football Playoff are now a big longshot, though if they manage to win out and Florida loses another game they will get another shot at Alabama in the SEC championship game. Tennessee is fighting through a slew of injuries but still has quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who is looking to bounce back after throwing a pair of interceptions in the loss at Texas A&M and being held to 92 yards and no touchdowns through the air by Alabama. Dobbs passed for 255 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win over South Carolina last season that was part of a six-game winning streak to end the season following a loss to Alabama.

* The Gamecocks spent the first half of the season trying to settle on one quarterback and may have finally found their man in Jake Bentley. The freshman made his first appearance against Massachusetts last week and completed 17-of-26 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the win as South Carolina managed more than 20 points for the first time this season. Perry Orth and Brandon McIlwain each started three games before the Gamecocks abandoned their plans to redshirt Bentley.

LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as 13-point road favorites and edged up a half point to 13.5. The total opened at 50.5 and has yet to move. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
* Under is 6-1 in Gamecocks last 7 conference games.
* Volunteers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in South Carolina.

New Mexico State Aggies at No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies (-43.5, 71)

* The Aggies held an opponent under 31 points for the first time this season against Georgia Southern last week but still could not come out with a win in a 22-19 setback. Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers threw five interceptions in a 52-6 loss at Troy on Sept. 24 but is steadily improving and passed for a total of four touchdowns and one interception over the last two contests. Running back Larry Rose rushed for 14 touchdowns last season but missed the first three games recovering from a sports hernia and found the end zone once in four games since his return.

* The Aggies defense got a major boost against Alabama with increased playing time for defensive end Myles Garrett, who recorded 3.5 tackles for loss despite still not being 100 percent due to a leg injury suffered last month. The offense was not able to hold up its end of the bargain as quarterback Trevor Knight completed a season-low 45.2 percent of his passes and rushed for a season-low 24 yards. Garrett and Knight will be tasked with keeping their teammates focused on Saturday's matchup instead of looking ahead to a closing stretch that includes dates with Ole Miss, Mississippi State and LSU.

LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened as 41.4-point home favorites and the public decided that massive number wasn't enough and bet the -41.5 up to -43.5. The total opened at 69.5 and quickly rose to 71. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* NMS Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. SEC.
* TAM Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 21-5 in New Mexico State's last 26 non-conference games.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Texas A&M's last 10 games on grass.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (+4.5, 60)

* Watson gives the Tigers a flashy star on offense — and Clemson ranks 18th nationally with 304.9 passing yards per game — but a dominant defense has carried the Tigers at times. Clemson ranks in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense, and the Tigers average a whopping nine tackles for loss per game. If there is a weakness its the run defense, which will have its hands full trying to slow down Cook.

* Cook ranks ninth in the nation in rushing yards (900), but the Seminoles have displayed decent balance with Deondre Francois under center. The redshirt freshman quarterback threw two touchdowns in a road win at Miami and passed for 319 yards and a score in last week’s win over Wake Forest. The Seminoles’ downfall against quality opponents has been their defense, allowing 530 total yards or more in losses to Louisville and North Carolina.

LINE HISTORY: Clemson opened this betting week as 3-point road favorites and the public decided that wasn't high enough - betting the Tigers up to 4.5-point faves. The total hit the betting board at 60 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Seminoles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games in October.
* Under is 8-2 in Seminoles last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

NCAAF: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Kentucky at Missouri

Two schools headed in opposite direction square off when Kentucky Wildcats (4-3 SU/ATS) visits Missouri Tigers (2-5 SU/ATS). Wildcats playing some good football have won four of five with the only loss coming against top ranked 'Bama'. Mizzou shredded both in the air (284 yds, 4 TD) and on the ground (300 yds, 2 TD) losing to CUSA Middle Tennessee this past week have dropped three straight, four of five with the only win coming against FCS Delaware State. Mizzou giving up a slew of yardage and points recently expect Wildcats to make it two in a row vs Mizzou and hand Tigers a fourth SEC loss this season. Lay the small number (-4.5) offered at Bovada.lv as Mizzou enters 6-13 in its last 19 games, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs the conference.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State (5-2 SU/ATS) off a 44-20 beatdown of Kansas this past weekend as -23.0 point road favorites have won three straight with a 2-1 record against the betting line. Pokes putting up 41.1 points/game on 336 passing, 143.7 rushing yards will have their hands full against visiting West Virginia (6-0, 3-3 ATS). The Mountaineers just shut down TCU’s fast-paced offense en route to a commanding 34-10 win last week and its defense is limiting opponents to just 17.8 point per game this season. Winning on the road is always a challenge, winning on the road against a conference rival an even bigger challenge. However, the road team in this series has won and covered the past two meetings and we see Mountaineers exacting revenge for last years loss in Morgantown. Consider laying the small number (-4.0) being offered at Bovada.lv/Bodog.eu as Mountaineers are a profitable 6-2 ATS as road chalk of -4.5 or less while Pokes enter a money-burning 0-8 ATS as home underdogs in the same range, 2-10 ATS overall last twelve taking points in front of the home audience.

Georgia vs. Florida
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

It used to be called the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Here at VegasInsider.com, we still call it The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, regardless as to what CBS and the respective schools want to term it these days.

The eye candy is always spectacular and the weather usually coincides with the co-eds on the last Saturday afternoon of October by the St. John’s River in Jacksonville. While the ladies decked out in red and black will be looking stellar, the same can’t be said for Kirby Smart’s first Georgia team.

Smart, Nick Saban’s long-time defensive coordinator on four national-championship teams, took over for Mark Richt at his alma mater. This is his first head-coaching gig at UGA, where he was an All-SEC defensive back and played from 1995-98.

His counterpart, Jim McElwain, also tutored under Saban and was a part of two of those national-title winners. McElwain replaced Will Muschamp, another UGA alum who played in the same secondary with Smart at Georgia, in 2015 and immediately led Florida to an SEC East title and basically handed Richt his pink slip when the Gators beat the Bulldogs down by a 27-3 count as three-point favorites last year.

McElwain is 15-5 at UF, while Smart is just 4-3 with two of his wins coming by three combined points. Georgia (4-3 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) is 1-3 in SEC play after dropping a 17-16 decision to Vanderbilt in Athens as 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Hence, the Bulldogs are unranked and out of the picture in the SEC East race.

Florida (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) leads the SEC East with a 3-1 record in league play. McElwain’s bunch will repeat as SEC East champs if it can run the bale in league play.

UF has had a pair of open dates over the last three weeks due to the postponement of the LSU game. In between those, UF captured a 40-14 win over Missouri as a 13-point home favorite. The 54 combined points went ‘over’ the 51-point total thanks to a pair of pick-sixes by cornerbacks Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor.

Gamblers backing the ‘under’ had to be furious. Not only were there two defensive TDs, but there were two more TDs scored in the last 1:23 of the game. Missouri’s Ish Witter’s one-yard TD run cut the deficit to 33-14, setting up an onside kick opportunity for the Tigers. UF’s Antonio Callaway took the onside kick and dashed 44 yards for a TD to give ‘over’ supporters a miracle victory.

Sophomore quarterback Luke Del Rio returned to the lineup after missing back-to-back games with a sprained MCL. Del Rio wasn’t nearly as sharp as he looked before the injury in September. He completed just 18-of-38 passes for 236 yards with one TD and three interceptions.

Lamical Perine rushed 11 times for 106 yards, while Jordan Scarlett had 101 rushing yards and one TD on 12 carries. Juco transfer Mark Thompson added 65 rushing yards on 10 totes, while true freshman WR Tyrie Cleveland had three catches for 79 yards, including a 20-yard TD grab.

UF has played a soft schedule to date, posting wins vs. UMass (24-7), vs. Kentucky (45-7), vs. North Texas (32-0) and at Vanderbilt (13-6). The Gators’ lone defeat came at Tennessee when the Volunteers snapped an 11-game losing streak to UF by rallying from a 21-0 deficit to win 38-28.

Florida ranks second in the nation in total defense, pass defense and scoring defense, holding opponents to an average score of 12.0 points per game. The Gators have 19 sacks led by redshirt freshman Jabari Zuniga’s five tackles on opposing QBs.

UF got great news Wednesday when five key players were able to practice. The Gators’ leading tackler, senior LB Jarrad Davis, sprained his ankle in the win over Missouri, but McElwain sounded optimistic about Davis’s chances of playing. He will be a game-time decision. Davis has recorded 48 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, three QB hurries and four passes broken up.

Starting DE Jordan Sherit missed the Missouri game with a knee injury, but he was upgraded to ‘probable’ after practicing all week. Sherit has 20 tackles, 3.5 TFL’s, three sacks and a pair of QB hurries. Another d-line starter, senior DT Joey Ivie, is also listed as ‘probable’ after missing consecutive games with a thumb injury. Before getting injured at UT, Ivie had nine tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.5 TFL’s and two QB hurries.

Senior DE Bryan Cox Jr. injured his thumb vs. Missouri, but UF is hopeful that he’ll be able to go vs. UGA. Cox has 14 tackles, two TFL’s, one forced fumble and four QB hurries. Finally, TE DeAndre Goolsby is nursing a finger injury but will be in uniform against the Bulldogs.

Georgia opened the season by rallying from a nine-point deficit late in the third quarter to beat North Carolina 33-24 as a 3.5-point favorite at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. After suffering a bad knee injury at UT last year, RB Nick Chubb made a triumphant return to the field by rushing for 222 yards and two TDs on 32 carries.

Since then, Smart’s squad has won vs. Nicholls (26-24), at Missouri (28-27) and at South Carolina (28-14). However, UGA has lost at Ole Miss (45-14), vs. Tennessee (34-31 on a walk-off Hail Mary) and vs. Vandy (17-16).

In the loss to the Commodores in Athens two weeks ago, the ground game struggled again. Chubb was held to 40 rushing yards on 16 carries, while Sony Michel managed just 28 yards on 13 attempts. True freshman QB Jacob Eason played well, connecting on 27-of-40 throws for 346 yards with one TD and no interceptions.

For the season, Eason has completed 113-of-208 (54.3%) passes for 1,366 with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is Isaiah McKenzie, who has 30 receptions for 415 yards and five TDs. Chubb has rushed for 586 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Michel has 358 rushing yards and one TD on 73 carries for a 4.9 YPC average.

Del Rio should be 100-percent healthy coming off the open date. He has connected on 80-of-139 throws (57.6%) for 998 yards with a 7/5 TD-INT ratio. Callaway has 23 catches for 399 yards and two TDs, while Goolsby has 25 receptions for 215 yards and one TD. Brandon Powell has 23 grabs for 206 yards and a pair of scores.

Jordan Scarlett has rushed for a team-high 375 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. Perine (6.3 YPC) has 300 rushing yards and one score, while juco transfer Mark Thompson has 262 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.6 YPC average. However, Thompson has been suspended for the UGA game.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Florida listed as a 7.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 43.5 points. Gamblers can take UGA on the money line for a +245 return (risk $100 to win $245).

When these schools met in Jacksonville last season, Florida cruised to a 27-3 win behind a dominant defensive performance. Callaway caught a 66-yard TD pass from Treon Harris, while safety Nick Washington recovered a fumble for a TD on special teams. Marcus Maye and Davis both has interceptions, while Michel was held to 45 rushing yards on 13 attempts.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these bitter border rivals.

Totals have been a wash (3-3 overall) for UF so far this year. Meanwhile, UGA has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Updated Odds to win the SEC
Alabama -400
Florida +550
Tennessee 8/1
Auburn 10/1
Texas A&M 10/1
LSU 12/1
Kentucky 1,000/1

Updated Games of the Year
Alabama -10 at LSU
LSU -14 at Arkansas
Florida +7 at FSU
Alabama -17 vs. Auburn
Ole Miss -13.5 vs. Mississippi State

Auburn is absolutely on fire after producing one of the top performances of the season in a 56-3 beatdown of Arkansas as a 10-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 8. Now Gus Malzahn’s squad will take its act to Oxford to take on an Ole Miss team that’s somehow lost four games despite leading in all four of the defeats and leading by double digits in three of those setbacks. Most spots have Auburn as a 4.5-point favorite. The Rebels are 6-2 ATS with three outright wins in eight games as a home underdog during Hugh Freeze’s tenure.

Kentucky’s 40-38 comeback win over Mississippi State represented the first win over the SEC West by an SEC East school in eight games this year. The Wildcats, who are 4-3 both SU and ATS, have covered the spread in four straight outings. They’ll be looking to improve to 4-2 in SEC play with a win at Missouri. As of Thursday, most spots had the Tigers listed as five-point home favorites. The Wildcats have compiled a 6-9 spread record as road underdogs on Mark Stoops’s watch.

Missouri’s tough season took another turn south this week when it announced the season-ending losses of leading tackler Michael Scherer and DL Terry Beckner Jr. to torn ACL’s. Scherer, a senior LB, had 53 tackles, 3.5 TFL’s, 0.5 sacks, one interception, two PBU and two QB hurries. Beckner had recorded 24 tackles, two TFL’s and three QB hurries.

Vanderbilt is 4-4 with an open date ahead of next week’s trip to The Plains to take on red-hot Auburn.

If you don’t incorporate Pro Football Focus into your handicapping, I suggest you check it out. The website uses a detailed grading system of every snap from each player and churns out lots of interesting content. In this week’s update of the best college football QBs in 2016, three SEC QBs made the Top 10. In this order, Alabama’s Jalen Hurts, Arkansas’ Austin Allen and Ole Miss’s Chad Kelly rank No. 8, 9 and 10. U of L’s Lamar Jackson is The Uno, followed by Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Jake Browning.