CFL Betting Recap - Week 18
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 18
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 18
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 18
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 18
The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 18
Team Betting Notes
Calgary (15-1-1) continues to be the class of the CFL, steamrolling teams each and every week. In Week 18 it was Toronto (5-12) as the latest victim, falling 31-13. After a rare non-cover last week, the Stampeders covered a 17-point number, improving to 13-3 ATS over the past 16 outings.
The Argonauts are in freefall, and the end of the season cannot come soon enough for them. Toronto started out 4-2 SU/ATS in the first six outings, but they're 1-10 SU/ATS since, including non-covers in each of the past six games.
Hamilton (7-9) exacted revenge for last weekend's home loss, returning the favor at Ottawa (7-8-1) in a 39-36 overtime thriller. The Tiger-Cats snapped a three-game losing streak, and a five-game non-cover skid.
The RedBlacks have been decent on the road, but they're struggling at home. Ottawa has been dropped in overtime in each of their past two outings, and they're 2-5-1 SU/1-7 ATS in eight home games this season.
The BC Lions (10-6) posted a 32-25 win over Edmonton (8-8 ), as the Eskimos saw their three-game win streak come to an end. The Lions bounced back from a loss last week, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS over the past four in Vancouver.
The Montreal (5-12) cooled off Saskatchewan (5-11), snapping a four-game win streak for the Roughriders. The Alouettes have now covered four of their past five games, and they're popular at the betting window for totals, too. The 'under is 3-1-1 in the past five for Montreal.
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CFL Week 19
Eskimos (8-8 ) @ TigerCats (7-9) — Hamilton (+4.5) won first meeting 37-31 in Edmonton July 23, rallying back from 24-6 halftime deficit- they outscored Eskimos 17-0 in 4th quarter. TiCats snapped 3-game skid with OT win in Ottawa LW; they’re 3-4 SU at home, 2-4 as home favorite. Eskimos are 3-2 in last five visits here; they won three of last four games but are on road for 4th game in row. Edmonton is 4-4 on road, 2-2 as a road underdog. Last three series games here stayed under the total.
RedBlacks (7-8-1) @ Blue Bombers (10-6) — Senators won last three games with Winnipeg, sweeping Bombers 27-24/27-20 LY; teams split two games here. Ottawa lost three of its last four games, with last two losses both in OT; average total in their last four games: 67.3, with all four going over total. RedBlacks are 2-2 as a road underdog. Winnipeg is 9-2 in its last 11 games after a 1-4 start; they’re 2-3 as home favorites, but scored 34+ points in four of their last five games. Eight of their last nine games went over.
Lions (10-6) @ Roughriders (5-11) — BC (+1.5) won first meeting 40-27 on this field July 16, rallying back from down 23-10 at half; Lions outscored Riders 21-4 in 4th quarter in their fourth straight series win- they won last three visits here, by 13-3-13 points. Three of last four series games went over. BC split its last four games, despite scoring 34.8 pts/game; they’re 5-3 SU on road, 2-0 as a road favorite. Saskatchewan won four of last five games, covered seven of last eight; five of their last six games stayed under. Riders are 3-5 SU at home, 4-1 as home dogs.
Stampeders (15-1-1) @ Alouettes (5-11) — Calgary won first meeting 22-8 (-15) at home two weeks ago; Stampeders are 8-3 in last 11 series games, but they lost 31-15/29-11 in last two visits here, as home side won last six series games. Calgary hasn’t lost since Opening Day; they tied their third game, in Ottawa, but are 14-0 since then, covering 10 of last 12 games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Montreal won in Regina LW with Oregon alum Adams at QB; Alouettes lost six of last eight games; they’re 0-4 as a home underdog.
Armadillosports.com
CFL Betting Notes - Week 19
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Week 18 Betting Recap
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats successfully avenged last week’s loss to Ottawa with a 39-36 overtime victory this past Friday as 3½-point road underdogs to kick off action in Week 18 of the CFL regular season. Calgary extended its incredible straight-up winning streak to 14 games later that night with a 31-13 win at home against Toronto as a heavy 16½-point favorite.
In the first of two games on Saturday’s slate, Montreal snapped Saskatchewan’s four-game winning streak with a 19-14 victory as a 6½-point underdog on the road. British Columbia bested Edmonton 32-25 as a 2½-point home favorite in a West Division clash to close things out for the week.
Friday, Oct. 28
Edmonton Eskimos (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -1½
Total: 56
Game Overview
Edmonton is in the CFL Playoffs as a crossover team from the West Division so this game could be a preview of a first round matchup a couple of weeks from now. In last week’s loss to BC, the Eskimos fell behind early before making it a game in the second half. Mike Reilly completed 24-of-32 passing attempts for 261 yards and a score to increase his total passing yards this season to 5,315, which is the second-most in the CFL.
The Tiger-Cats have also clinched a playoff spot and last week’s win against Ottawa closed the gap to just a half game between the two teams for the lead in the East Division. Jeremiah Masoli remains Hamilton’s starting quarterback for an injured Zach Collaros and he may have secured a permanent role at that spot with 359 yards passing and three scoring strikes in last week’s crucial win. Kevin Elliott had a big day catching the ball with five receptions for 102 yards and a score.
Betting Trends
Hamilton won the first meeting this season 37-31 as a 4½-point road underdog to improve to 4-2 both SU and against the spread in the last six meetings. The total went OVER 54 points in that game after staying UNDER in three of the previous four matchups.
Saturday, Oct. 29
Ottawa RedBlacks (7-8-1 SU, 6-10 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -5
Total: 55
Game Overview
Ottawa needs to win its last two games to guarantee another East Division title, but it has only notched two wins (both SU and ATS) in its last six contests. The total went OVER 53 points in last week’s loss and it has now gone OVER in the RedBlacks last four games behind a defense that has allowed an average of 35 points a game in this same span. On the year, they are giving up 28.4 points a game.
Winnipeg is now tied with BC for the second spot in the West and it has just two SU losses in its last 11 games while going 8-3 ATS. The total has gone OVER in the Blue Bombers’ last five games with a scoring average of 35.6 points a game. They are coming off a bye week following a 35-32 victory on the road against BC as 5½-point road underdogs. Matt Nichols completed 27-of-38 passing attempts for 301 yards and a score in that game.
Betting Trends
This will be the first game in a home-and-home series to close out the regular season. Ottawa has won the last three meetings SU and it has a slight 2-1 edge ATS. The has stayed UNDER in the last two games of this inter-division tilt.
British Columbia Lions (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-11, 9-7 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -2
Total: 53
Game Overview
The Lions bounced back from that Week 17 loss to Winnipeg with a very important victory against Edmonton, but they are still just 2-3 both SU and ATS in their last five games. The total stayed UNDER 58 points in the win at home against the Eskimos after it had gone OVER in four of BC’s previous five contests. This defense has allowed at least 30 points in three of its last four games, while averaging 34.8 points on offense.
Saskatchewan’s late season run proved to be too little too late has far as securing a spot in the postseason, but bettors along for the ride pocketed some nice cash with a 7-1 run ATS over its last eight games. The Roughriders’ offense finally stumbled after averaging 26.8 points during their SU four-game winning streak. Darian Durant completed 25-of-37 attempts in the loss to Montreal, but it only led to 208 passing yards on the day.
Betting Trends
BC comes into this home-and-home series opener with a SU four-game winning streak against Saskatchewan while going 3-0-1 ATS. This includes a 40-27 victory on July 16 as a 1 ½-point road underdog. The total has gone OVER in three of those four games.
Sunday, Oct. 30
Calgary Stampeders (15-1-1 SU, 13-4 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -8½
Total: 50½
Game Overview
Calgary’s final game of the season before returning to action a few weeks from now in the West Division Final is against the only team were it failed to score at least 30 points over the course of the Stampeders’ last 10 games. The league’s top scoring team is averaging 34 points a game, which is by far the most in the CFL and its defense has allowed the fewest points (352) this year. Bo Levi Mitchell will try and exceed the 5,500 mark in total passing yards after throwing for 5,385 yards in 17 previous games.
The Alouettes upset win against Saskatchewan was just its second SU victory in their last eight games, but they come into this game with a 4-1 record ATS in their five outings. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of their last seven games after scoring 20 points or less in five of those games. One positive for Montreal has been the running back tandem of Brandon Rutley and Tyrell Sutton with a combined 838 yards, but both players remain out of the lineup with injuries.
Betting Trends
Two weeks ago Calgary got past Montreal 22-8, but it could not cover as a heavy 15-point home favorite. It is now 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings, but ATS the Alouettes have come out on top in the last four games. The total in this inter-division matchup has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings.
EDMONTON (8 - 8 ) at HAMILTON (7 - 9) - 10/28/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA (7 - 8 - 1) at WINNIPEG (10 - 6) - 10/29/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
OTTAWA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a division game this season.
OTTAWA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 2-2 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (10 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 11) - 10/29/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 127-91 ATS (+26.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 117-85 ATS (+23.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a division game this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (15 - 1 - 1) at MONTREAL (5 - 11) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
CALGARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
CALGARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
CALGARY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CALGARY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CALGARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MONTREAL is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Edmonton is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
OTTAWA vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 11 games when playing Ottawa
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 9 games when playing British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against British Columbia
CALGARY vs. MONTREAL
Calgary is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Calgary
Montreal is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
StatFox Super Situations
OTTAWA at WINNIPEG
Play On - Underdogs or pick (OTTAWA) off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite against opponent off a road win 32-8 since 1997. ( 80.0% | 23.2 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
BRITISH COLUMBIA at SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite 58-51 since 1997. ( 53.2% | 0.0 units ) 3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
BRITISH COLUMBIA at SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) average passing team (245-290 PY/G) against an average passing defense (245-290 PY/G) after 9+ games 36-9 since 1997. ( 80.0% | 26.1 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
Edmonton at Hamilton
Edmonton: 5-1 ATS off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival
Hamilton: 1-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Ottawa at Winnipeg
Ottawa: 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7
Winnipeg: 22-10 ATS off 3 or more consecutive overs
British Columbia at Saskatchewan
British Columbia: 40-23 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival
Saskatchewan: 6-21 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Calgary at Montreal
Calgary: 7-1 ATS off a home win
Montreal: 5-13 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
StatFox Super Situations
CALGARY at MONTREAL
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MONTREAL) after allowing 5 or less yards/play in their previous game 45-18 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 25.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CALGARY at MONTREAL
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (MONTREAL) off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a home win by 17 points or more 29-10 since 1997. ( 74.4% | 0.0 units ) 1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
CALGARY at MONTREAL
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (CALGARY) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 42-12 since 1997. ( 77.8% | 28.8 units ) 2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )