CG releases Divisional Odds
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The betting public just can't get enough of the NFL.
It's no doubt the king of the jungle in the Las Vegas sports book world. We're only one month removed from the Super Bowl and people are already betting who will win in each of the eight divisions for the 2016 season at CG Technology books.
For goodness sake, MLB division odds were just posted last week as Spring Training was about to start. But that is the power of the NFL and CG Tech's VP of risk analysis Jason Simbal is just giving the public what they want.
"We're not going to see too much change after the free-agency period, the NFL draft or when the schedule is released, and we're taking low limits ($500), so we're not going to get hurt too much. And plus, most of the smart money that can do some damage to us won't bet the numbers until others show up somewhere else. So from our vantage point, why not give bettors as much NFL as we can as early as possible."
CG Tech books are located at five major casinos on the Las Vegas strip -- Venetian, Palazzo, Tropicana, M Resort and Cosmopolitan (Cosmo's brand new book opened on first level prior to Super Bowl), as well as off the strip at the Palms and Silverton.
They get thousand of new people checking in every day between all their properties and a small portion of them like to take something home in regards to NFL future wagers. In years past at this juncture the only option was odds to win the Super Bowl or conference championship.
Since posting the division odds a week ago, only one team has seen a large chunk of action from those who saw perceived value.
"We took a few big bets on the Jaguars to win the AFC South at 6/1 and it forced a move down to 9/2, which was in line with large action we saw on the season win totals where Jacksonville was one of three teams we moved the actual number instead of the price," said Simbal.
Jacksonville was bet from 6 wins up to 6.5 wins. The other two teams that had their totals moved were the Raiders from 7.5 to 8 wins and the Saints from 7 up to 7.5.
The Jaguars are an interesting look just because of a crisp offense featuring QB Blake Bortles and two 1,000 yard receivers -- Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, both of whom had double-digit TD receptions. They only went 5-11 last season, but when you look across the division, it's not a stretch to believe the Jags can make that next big jump if they can shore up some of the glaring holes in its defense that allowed 28 points-per-game. They last won a division in 1999.
Houston (2/1 to win division in 2016) won the AFC South last year at 9-7 with no quarterback. The Colts are the 5/12 favorites (Bet $100 to win $42) to win it, but who knows if Andrew Luck is fully recovered from multiple injuries that kept him out of nine games last season. There does seem to be some genuine concern from the Colts about Luck's shoulder. The Titans are the long shots at 12-to-1 and they're expected to be better than its 3-13 2015 record.
While Simbal doesn't have too many concerns regarding free-agency or the NFL draft in regards to the numbers, he is paying close attention to what happens with AFC West favorite Denver (13/10) and its QB situation. Peyton Manning isn't expected back and after the team slapped the franchise tag on LB Von Miller, it allows QB Brock Osweiler to sign with the highest bidder when the signing period begins Monday, March 7.
"Yeah, if there's no Manning and Osweiler leaves, that's a big deal to the overall complexion of the division," said Simbal. "That immediately would make Kansas City the favorite and put Denver right there with Oakland as the second choice."
If Osweiler does leave and Manning is gone as expected, the Broncos have some slim pickings to choose from. Chase Daniel, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Moore are a few of the free-agent QBs available after Osweiler and Colin Kaepernick is still out there in San Francisco as a trade option as is Robert Griffin III in Washington. Denver's five-year run as AFC West champs is in serious jeopardy if Osweiler bolts.
The Jets AFC East odds (16/5) could also be drastically impacted if they lose Fitzpatrick after he threw for 31 TDs and led them to a respectable 10-6 record. Uh-oh, more Geno Smith, or a learning curve all over again with Bryce Petty?
Running back Chris Ivory, who had a career year with his first 1,000 yard season, is considered one of the top-15 free-agents available. The Patriots are 5-to-9 favorites to win the division with the Bills are 7-to-2 and the Dolphins at 7-to-1. New England has won the NFC East the past seven seasons.
Here's a look at all the division odds posted at CG Technology's seven sports books across Las Vegas:
Odds to win 2016 AFC East
2015 Winner - New England
New England Patriots 5/9
New York Jets 16/5
Buffalo Bills 7/2
Miami Dolphins 7/1
Odds to win 2016 AFC North
2015 Winner - Cincinnati
Pittsburgh Steelers 11/10
Cincinnati Bengals 13/10
Baltimore Ravens 5/2
Cleveland Browns 35/1
Odds to win 2016 AFC South
2015 Winner - Houston
Indianapolis Colts 5/12
Houston Texans 2/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 6/1
Tennessee Titans 12/1
Odds to win 2016 AFC West
2015 Winner - Denver
Denver Broncos 13/10
Kansas City Chiefs 7/5
Oakland Raiders 4/1
San Diego Chargers 9/2
Odds to win 2016 NFC East
2015 Winner - Washington
Dallas Cowboys 9/5
Washington Redskins 12/5
New York Giants 12/5
Philadelphia Eagles 5/2
Odds to win 2016 NFC North
2015 Winner - Minnesota
Green Bay Packers 2/3
Minnesota Vikings 7/5
Chicago Bears 17/2
Detroit Lions 17/2
Odds to win 2016 NFC South
2015 Winner - Carolina
Carolina Panthers 5/12
Atlanta Falcons 4/1
New Orleans Saints 5/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11/2
Odds to win 2016 NFC West
2015 Winner - Arizona
Seattle Seahawks 5/11
Arizona Cardinals 12/5
Los Angeles Rams 23/5
San Francisco 49ers 13/1