2016 NFL Draft Props

Nover's View: My NFL Draft Props
By Stephen Nover

Usually you're paying high juice. But NFL draft props are beatable. The books are sitting ducks as updated - and key - information becomes available leading up to the event.

I've always made money betting NFL props. I'm very confident the streak continues this year.

Here are my 2016 NFL draft props:

Will there be Over/Under 2 1/2 quarterbacks drafted in the first round? Go Over 2 1/2. The juice is exceptionally high on this one, but it's as close to a lock as you'll find with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz likely going first and second and Paxton Lynch possibly being a top-10 pick, too. There's even a chance a fourth quarterback could sneak into the first round such as Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg. Quarterback is the one position teams will reach on hoping to strike gold in the quarterback-driven NFL.

Ohio State figures prominently in the draft. I'm involved in three props involving Ohio State players. They are:

Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 8 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Under 8 1/2. Elliott is the most complete running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. It wouldn't shock me to see him go as high as No. 4 to the Cowboys.

Darron Lee Over/Under 10 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Over 10 1/2. I don't see him being among the top 15 players chosen. He's downgraded by his lack of size.

Joey Bosa to be drafted ahead of Myles Jack. Bosa is the best pass rusher in the draft. He should be among the top five players selected.

Myles Jack Over/Under 8 on when he gets picked. Go Over 8. Jack's stock has dropped because of concerns about his sore knee. He's out of the top 10 now and slipping.

Over/Under 5 1/2 wide receivers/running backs go in the first round. Go Under 5 1/2. It's a weak year for wide receivers. There are no sure-fire wide receiver stars like in the past few years and Elliott is likely the lone running back to go in Round 1. The only wide receivers I see going in the first round are Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman and Josh Dotson.

Betting the NFL Draft
By Covers.com

You’d have to travel back in time to the magical year of 1999 to find the last NFL Draft that featured the selection of five quarterbacks within the first 32 picks. What we know for certain is that the first two slots in this year’s prospect spectacular will soon be occupied by signal-callers Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

What we believe as highly likely is that Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch will also fly off the board before Thursday night comes to a close. What some feel is remotely possible is the inclusion of Michigan State’s Connor Cook and/or Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg in the first round festivities as well.

Welcome to the National Football League’s annual attempt at a John le Carre spy novel, also known as the NFL Draft.

Despite our above introduction to this column, shockingly enough, there are very few quarterback-related draft props currently available on the betting market. But rest assured, that won’t slow us down from working to identify some of the very best value bets on the board.

All prop bets courtesy of the website Sportsbook.ag

All prices current as of Wednesday night

Over/Under running backs + wide receivers drafted in first round: 5.5

Over: +190
Under: -275

Pick: UNDER (-275)

Analysis: The only first round lock at the running back position is Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, with Alabama Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry expected by many to hear his name called on day two of the draft. That means our under bet cashes as long as no more than four wide receivers find themselves with NFL homes at the close of business on Thursday. Expect those four wideouts to come in the form of Baylor’s Corey Coleman, TCU’s Josh Doctson, Mississippi’s Laquon Treadwell and Notre Dame’s Will Fuller. However, keep in mind that at least one of those pass-catchers could very well fall to the second round, which would give us some breathing room in the event Derrick Henry shocks the world and lands within the first 31 selections.

Over/Under draft position for Ohio State DE Joey Bosa: 3.5

Over: -375
Under: +250

Pick: OVER (-375)

Analysis: This is clearly a mistake and one that I expect will be rectified quite quickly, as I found some additional offshore shops that are offering this same proposition with the over posted at -1400. For the under to hit, Bosa would have to land with either Los Angeles at No. 1 (Nope, the Rams are taking Jared Goff), Philadelphia at No. 2 (Nope, the Eagles are selecting Carson Wentz) or San Diego at No. 3 (Expect the Chargers to select CB Jalen Ramsey, OT Laremy Tunsil or OT Ronnie Stanley). In fact, the only way I can see this under hitting is if San Diego trades down with a franchise that wants Bosa in the worst way possible, which would qualify as this year’s first “shocker.” I understand the risks involved with laying -375, but this is as close as we’re going to get to a sure thing.

Over/Under total Ohio State players drafted in first round: 5.5

Over: +180
Under: -260

Pick: UNDER (-260)

Analysis: This is a relatively straightforward play as RB Ezekiel Elliott, DE Joey Bosa, OLB Darron Lee, CB Eli Apple and OT Taylor Decker are all consensus first round selections. However, outside of those five prospects, no other Ohio State player is predicted to land within the first 31 selections, with S Vonn Bell serving as the only other viable Buckeye who could sneak into the day one action. We’re betting against that happening.

Over/Under draft position for Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley: 10.5

Over: +350
Under: -525

Pick: UNDER (-525)

Analysis: We called this one in Monday’s column and apparently weren’t alone in our love for this opportunity, as the original price of Over +230/Under -340 has since been adjusted to the numbers listed above. Stanley is in play for the Chargers at No. 3, Jaguars at No. 5, Ravens at No. 6, 49ers at No. 7, Browns at No. 8 and Giants at No. 10. Not only that, but the Tennessee Titans—who could use some additional protection for franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota—could always trade back into the top-10 selections from their current spot at pick No. 15 in order to land Stanley as well. Bottom line: Expect the under on this prop to climb even higher by show time.

Over/Under total number of linebackers drafted in first round: 4.5

Over: +125
Under: -165

Pick: UNDER (-165)

Analysis: Sure-fire first round linebacker selections include UCLA’s Myles Jack, Georgia’s Leonard Floyd and Ohio State’s Darron Lee, with Alabama’s Reggie Ragland more than likely to hear his name called on Thursday as well. Which leads us to the million dollar question: Who will be the fifth linebacker that ruins our under bet? Only two prospects come to mind and they are considered by many to be first round long-shots: Boise State’s Kamalei Correa and USC’s Su’a Cravens. Don’t be surprised if that -165 under price rises by Thursday night.

Over/Under draft position for Clemson DE Shaq Lawson: 14.5

Over: +140
Under: -185

Pick: UNDER (-185)

Analysis: A draft position of 14.5 indicates that under bettors will need Lawson to fly off the board before the Baltimore Ravens hit the clock at selection No. 15. Lawson is a 6-3, 269-pound beast of a pass rusher who ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at the Combine back in February to complement his already impressive resume which features explosive power, surprising agility and the ability to defend remarkably well against both the run and pass. As a result, potential suitors include the 49ers at No. 7, the Browns at No. 8, the Bears at No. 11 and the Dolphins at No. 13. No guarantees here, but prospects like this have been in high demand since the has NFL evolved into such a pass-heavy league.