CFL Betting Recap - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 8
Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 8
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 8
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 8
The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 8
Team Betting Notes
Calgary (5-1-1) continues to hum along, as they recorded a low-scoring, hard-fought 19-10 win at Saskatchewan (1-6). They ended up sweeping the home-and-home with the Roughriders by an average score of 27.0-12.5, covering in both and posting back-to-back unders. The 'over' had been 3-1-1 in their previous five games. Calgary is now 5-1 ATS in their past six.
For Saskatchewan, they are back in a tailspin after their shocking win over the RedBlacks July 22. The Roughriders have lost three in a row, failed to cover in all three while averaging just 9.7 PPG. As you'd figure, the 'under' is 3-0 during the uninspiring run.
BC Lions (5-2) continue to breathe down Calgary's neck, outlasting Hamilton (3-4) in a shootout at BC Place Stadium. The Lions actually blew a 20-point halftime lead and needed late heroics with a late touchdown strike from Jonathan Jennings to Emmanuel Arceneaux with 1:23 to go to win 45-38. BC has covered four in a row, and they're 6-1 ATS on the season. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four after the 'under' cashed in their first three.
The Ti-Cats have dropped two in a row, and they're just 2-4 ATS in their past six. However, it was the fourth time in seven games that they scored 31 or more points, and fifth time in six tries they have allowed 28 points, including an average allowed of 37.7 PPG over the past three.
Winnipeg (4-4) stunned Toronto (4-3) on the road, doubling up the Argonauts 34-17. The Argos entered 4-1 SU/ATS in their previous five, thanks in large part to their defense which had allowed 20 or fewer points in four of the past five. The Blue Bombers offense has come alive after a sluggish start. In their first five games they averaged 19.6 PPG, but over the past three they're putting up 33.7 PPG.
Edmonton (3-4) slapped the brakes on a three-game skid, topping cellar-dwelling Montreal (2-5) by a 23-12 count. It was the third straight 'under' result for the Eskimos, who are now 2-0 ATS in their past two after an 0-4-1 ATS start.
The poor start for the Alouettes is mostly on their offense. Montreal has managed 18 or fewer points in five of their past six games, with the 'under' going 5-2 overall this season.
MONTREAL (2 - 5) at OTTAWA (4 - 2 - 1) - 8/19/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.
OTTAWA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 4-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (5 - 1 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 2) - 8/19/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 120-88 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (3 - 4) at TORONTO (4 - 3) - 8/20/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1996.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 2-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 6) at HAMILTON (3 - 4) - 8/20/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in August games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-90 ATS (+22.0 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL AT OTTAWA
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Montreal's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games
Ottawa is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
CALGARY AT BRITISH COLUMBIA
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
Calgary is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
British Columbia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
EDMONTON AT TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
SASKATCHEWAN AT HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 games when playing Saskatchewan
CFL Betting Notes - Week 9
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Week 8 Betting Recap
Edmonton was able to get its season back on track in Week 8 of the CFL regular season with a 23-12 victory over Montreal last Thursday night as an eight-point home favorite. On Friday night, Winnipeg stretched its current winning streak to three games both straight-up and against the spread with a 34-17 rout of Toronto as 3½-point underdogs on the road.
Saturday’s CFL action started with Calgary pulling off the sweep in the backend of a home-and-home series against Saskatchewan with a 19-10 win as a 5½-point road favorite. Later that night in a wild one, British Columbia outlasted Hamilton 45-38 as a three-point favorite at home. Here is a closer look at Week 9’s CFL slate.
Friday, Aug. 19
Montreal Alouettes (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -10
Total: 49½
Game Overview
Last week’s loss was the fifth time this season that Montreal failed to cross the 20-point barrier on the scoreboard. This offense is averaging just 18.6 points a game overall behind quarterback Kevin Glenn. Last week in the loss to Edmonton, he completed just 56.4 percent of his 39 passing attempts for 271 yards and no touchdowns while getting picked-off twice. Montreal’s ground game could not pick up the slack with just 43 yards from its leading rusher Brandon Rutley.
Ottawa returns to action from its bye week with half game lead over Toronto in the East Division title race. The RedBlacks are 1-2 straight-up in their last three games with a costly 0-3 record against the spread. While their defense has been able to tighten things up with an average of 23.3 points allowed in its last four games, their offense has only managed to score a total of 43 points in its last two contests.
Betting Trends
Ottawa has won four of the last five games SU against Montreal including a 28-13 victory in Week 2 in a game that closed as a PICK. The total stayed UNDER the 54-point line and it has now stayed UNDER in five of the last seven meetings in the East Division clash.
Calgary Stampeders (5-1-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS)
Point-spread: British Columbia -2½
Total: 56½
Game Overview
Calgary is holding a half-game lead over BC in the West Division standings and riding a SU four-game winning streak while going 3-1 ATS. While Bo Levi Mitchell has been one of the most prolific passers in the league this season, it was the play of the Stampeders’ defense that helped secure last week’s win. This unit has now allowed 18 points or less in three of its last four games.
The Lions are 3-1 SU in their last four games, while going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They have gotten it done on offense behind quarterback Jonathon Jennings. He threw for 306 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win against Hamilton and BC has now scored 38 points or more in each of its last four games. Jeremiah Johnson has been the team’s leading rusher with 256 yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries.
Betting Trends
These two have split their first two games this season with BC winning 20-18 on opening day as a 2.5-point home underdog and Calgary coming out on top 44-41 on July 29 as a five-point favorite at home. The total stayed UNDER 47 in the first meeting and it easily went OVER 48 ½ points the last time they met.
Saturday, Aug. 20
Edmonton Eskimos (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -2
Total: 52½
Game Overview
Edmonton was able to snap a three-game SU slide with last week’s win at home against Montreal. This was just the second time that the Eskimos covered in their first seven games and the total has now stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests. Edmonton had allowed an average of 30 points a game in those three losses before shutting down the Alouettes in last week’s win.
The Argonauts continue to forge on without the services of injured quarterback Ricky Ray. In his place, Logan Kilgore has had mixed results in a win against Ottawa as a heavy road underdog followed by last week’s loss to Winnipeg as a favorite at home. Kilgore put the ball up 44 times against the Blue Bombers and while he did complete 26 passes for 303 yards and a score, he also completed five passes to the opposing team in the form of interceptions.
Betting Trends
Edmonton has lost five of its last seven games against Toronto SU; however it does have a 7-3 edge ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and a 5-2 record ATS in its last seven road games against the Argonauts. The total has gone OVER in four of the Eskimos’ last six games on the road against Toronto.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -10
Total: 53
Game Overview
This season has been another rough ride for Saskatchewan after winning just three games all last year. Even with Darian Durant back at quarterback it has struggled to find the end zone and the Roughriders’ defense has allowed a league-worst 233 points through its first seven games. The total has now stayed UNDER in their last three games with a grand total of just 28 points on the scoreboard.
Hamilton’s offense got a huge boost from the return of quarterback Zach Collaros last week despite the loss to BC. In his first action since recovering from knee surgery, he completed 24-of-40 passing attempts for 331 yards and two touchdowns. His favorite target in that game was Luke Tasker with eight receptions for 86 yards and a score. The Tiger-Cats are averaging 26.6 points a game on offense, but allowing an average of 28 points to their opponents.
Betting Trends
This will be the first meeting this season and Saskatchewan comes in with a SU 19-6 record in the last 25 games of this inter-division clash while going 15-7 ATS in the last 22 matchups. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last seven games between the two.
CFL Week 9
Montreal (2-5) @ Ottawa (4-2-1) – Alouettes were outgained 548-340 in 28-13 home loss to Ottawa in Week 2, RedBlacks’ 4th straight series win. Als lost 26-23/39-17 in last two visits here. Five of last seven series games stayed under total. Montreal lost five of last six games overall; five of their seven games stayed under. Montreal lost last two road games by 13-11 points- their one road win was in Winnipeg. Last three Ottawa games were decided by total of 7 points; RedBlacks are 1-1-1 at home (underdogs 3-0 vs spread). Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
Calgary (5-1) @ British Columbia (5-2-1) – Home side won both series games this year, with two games decided by total of 5 points; Lions lost last meeting 44-41 in OT at Calgary three weeks ago. Stampeders won six of last seven series games, but lost 20-18 (-2.5) in Week 1 here. Calgary scored 32.3 ppg in winning its last four games; Stamps are 2-1-1 on road, winning in Winnipeg/Regina, tying in Ottawa. BC’s last four games went over total; they’re 2-1 at home, with loss to Toronto. Three of last four series games stayed under.
Edmonton (3-4) @ Toronto (4-3) – Toronto is 4-0 when it scores more than 20 points, 0-3 when it scores 20 or less. Home side won six of last seven series games; Eskimos lost last four visits here, by 16-3-1-15 points. Eight of last ten series games went over total. Edmonton lost three of last four games overall; they split only two road games, losing by 3 at Ottawa, winning by 4 in Winnipeg. Four of last five Eskimo games stayed under total. Toronto is 1-3 at home, with only win 30-17 over Montreal; four of last six Argonaut games stayed under total.
Saskatchewan (1-6) @ Hamilton (3-4) – First home game in six weeks for TiCats, who are 0-2 at home, losing to BC/Winnipeg. Hamilton allowed 41 ppg in losing last two games overall– they’re 1-3 as a favorite this year. TiCats won last three games with Saskatchewan, by 25-10-15 points; six of last seven series games stayed under total. Roughriders scored total of 28 points in losing last three games, by 38-20-9 points; they’re 0-3 on road (1-2 as a road underdog) with OT loss in Edmonton. Last three Saskatchewan games stayed under total.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
CALGARY at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BRITISH COLUMBIA) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points 47-17 since 1997. ( 73.4% | 28.3 units )
MONTREAL at OTTAWA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (OTTAWA) excellent offensive team (>=420 YPG) against a poor offensive team (315 to 345 YPG) 25-20 since 1997. ( 55.6% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
SASKATCHEWAN at HAMILTON
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than or equal to 26 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses 26-5 over the last 5 seasons. ( 83.9% | 20.5 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
EDMONTON at TORONTO
Play Against - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (EDMONTON) excellent passing team - averaging 325 or more passing yards/game 24-4 since 1997. ( 85.7% | 19.6 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0%*| 1.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations
SASKATCHEWAN at HAMILTON
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 61% or worse, after gaining 6.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game 43-15 since 1997. ( 74.1% | 26.5 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
SASKATCHEWAN at HAMILTON
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (HAMILTON) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the first half of the season 31-5 since 1997. ( 86.1% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )