Conference USA East Division Preview
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Where has the time gone? It doesn’t seem so long ago that we knew of Rick Stockstill as the QB of the first powerhouse Bobby Bowden teams at Florida State. That, however, is now close to 40 years in the rear-view mirror. It also doesn’t seem as if Stockstill has been the HC for the past ten years at Middle Tennessee (2015 SUR 7-6, PSR 8-5, O/U 5-8 ), which in that span has made the move from the Sun Belt to C-USA and become bowl-eligible (though not necessarily bowl-selected) in six of the past seven seasons.
As for Stockstill, he seems content in Murfreesboro after a few dalliances with other jobs, including East Carolina a few years ago. It makes sense; the Blue Raider program has been on the move, and seems poised to make another move up the ladder, perhaps to the American should expansion elsewhere heist a few schools from that league. As Stockstill has stayed at MTSU, Murfreesboro has also grown along with the Blue Raider program, with the area now considered on the periphery of Nashville metro. Less than an hour from a major airport in Music City, MTSU is also conveniently located, with the ability to draw recruits from the region. The Blue Raider gig is now a pretty good one, which Stockstill seems to realize.
Maintaining recent momentum looks a good possibility because of another Stockstill, Rick’s son Brent, now a soph QB who came within 52 yards of Jameis Winston’s NCAA frosh record for passing yardage a year ago, when Brent recorded a whopping 4005 YP and the Blue Raiders fielded their most prolific offense in school history. After scoring 34 ppg, MTSU does not figure to take a step back with new/old o.c. Tony Franklin, a Hal Mumme and Mike Leach disciple who is well-versed in all aspects of the spread offense and is now on a second tour of duty in Murfreesboro after recent stints at La Tech and Cal.
Franklin’s go-go offense works best with a deep rotation of wideouts in 4-WR looks. Soph Richie James, who caught a staggering 108 passes last season, and freakish athlete 6'5 Terry Pettis, who gained over 21 yards per catch a year ago, will again be featured targets. Shane Tucker, who gained 413 YR out of a slotback position in last year’s offense, was moved to wideout in spring to give Stockstill more targets. Meanwhile, Ole Miss transfer I’Tavius Mathers returns to his hometown as the featured RB after gaining 1061 YR over three seasons in the SEC and starring in the MTSU spring game. The left side of the OL is looking for a couple of new starters, but there was good depth on the forward wall a year ago that should come in handy this fall.
The Blue Raider “D” has been representative for the past few years under d.c. Tyrone Nix’s schemes, though six new starters will need to step into the breach this fall. Big holes remain at the LB and safety spots after five of the top six tacklers graduated following last season.
On the plus side, the DL is loaded with experience, with three starters returning up front on an all-senior line featuring bookends Chris Hale and ex-Marine Steven Rhodes. Starters also return at both CB spots, where Mike Minter and ballhawk deluxe Jeremy Cutrer form one of the best coverage duos in C-USA. Though an all-new starting crew of LBs is slated, physical jr. Myles Harges likely would have been in the lineup last fall if not for injury. Soph OLB Chris Melton also might have provided a glimpse of things to come when impressing with six tackles in the Bahamas Bowl vs. Western Michigan.
The schedule is a bit of a concern because there are only five home games at Jonny Floyd Stadium, important because the Blue Raiders are 15-3 SU at Murfreesboro since 2013 and 6-14 SU away from home. A tough three-game stretch in September at Vanderbilt, Bowling Green, and home vs. West contender La Tech will likely set the tone for the rest of the season.
Spread-wise, note the streaky nature of Stockstill’s recent editions, which have three times in the past two years rolled off spread win streaks of three games or more, while also having a pair of 4-game spread losing streaks. Interestingly, MTSU covered all four of its chances as a double-digit favorite last season.
What a nice fit it has turned out to be in Huntington between HC Doc Holliday and Marshall (2015 SUR 10-3, PSR 8-5, O/U 4-9), which has returned to gridiron relevance though the Doc years. Though there was a time when Holliday (50-28 SU in six seasons on the job) seemed on shaky ground a few years ago, three straight campaigns of double-digit wins and bowl wins suggest that Doc could probably take this job into retirement if he so desires.
The Herd’s track record warrants its inclusion among the top contenders in C-USA, though this might be a season where Holliday struggles to get to that 10-win plateau, considering the extreme rebuild necessary on the defensive side, where only four starters return from an accomplished platoon that ranked 10th (17.8 ppg) in scoring defense, an almost unheard-of accomplishment for a C-USA entry. With so much youth on this year’s roster, however, the work is going to be cut out for Holliday.
At least the offense should continue to roll after scoring 31 ppg when breaking in a hardscrabble frosh QB, Chase Litton, last season. The rough-hewn Litton would eventually pass for 2605 yards and 23 TDs after taking over control of the offense in the third game of 2015 vs. Norfolk State. A year ago, however, Litton was surrounded with a group of experienced skill guys on the strike force, but graduation has altered that scenario, especially after top two receiving targets Davonte Allen and Deandre Reaves graduated, taking 114 catches and 9 TDs with them from a year ago. Expected to assume more of a receiving burden is jr. Deon-Tay McManus, who caught 35 passes a year ago, and Plaxico Burress-sized soph Michael Clark, a 6'7 deep threat.
The Herd usually has no shortage of runners, and even after the departure of the thundering Devon Johnson (now in the NFL Carolina Panthers’ camp), shifty Hyleck Foster (450 YR) has shown enough pop in the past to suggest he can handle feature-back duties. Punishing soph Keion Davis (331 YR LY) offers a nice change-of-pace and a pile-driving style. Four starters also return along the OL. Moreover, Marshall was also tops nationally in special teams efficiency a year ago. So, we don’t think the problem for the Herd will be scoring points this fall.
There might be issues, however, on a mostly-rebuilt “D” that will test vet coordinator Chuck Heater, once upon a time a tough RB for some of Bo Schembechler’s early Michigan teams. Of particular concern are the new CBs, a position with little experience on the roster and a concern for Heater, whose system requires the corners to win one-on-one battles with wideouts while the front seven utilizes various Heater-designed blitz packages. Heater also has to replace C-USA Defensive MVP LB Evan McKelvey.
In the secondary, Heater does have some experience at the safety spots, where returning starter Tiquan Lang and Virginia Tech transfer C.J. Reavis will roam. Soph DE Ryan Bee proved a pass rush force last fall for a “D” that was adept at forcing TOs and various three-and-outs from opponents. But that was with a far more-experienced stop unit a year ago.
We’ll find out early how far along Holliday’s seventh Herd version might be with a tough September meatgrinder (Akron, Louisville, and at Pitt) after an expected fun time in the opener vs. the pride of Baltimore, the Morgan State Bears. Top East contenders MTSU and WKU also visit Edwards Stadium in November. Another bowl bid is considered a minimum expectation, and a run at the East crown could materialize if the defense coagulates sooner rather than later.
Spread-wise, Doc has had the Herd rolling the past three seasons, with an overall 25-15-1 mark vs. the number since 2013. Herd is also 13-5-1 vs. the number at Huntington since 2013, though 6-0 of that mark is credited to the 2013 team.
It’s been a fun two years for Western Kentucky (2015 SUR 12-2, PSR 8-4-1, O/U 9-4), which has piled up 20 wins (including a couple of bowl successes) in the two seasons on HC Jeff Brohm’s watch while QB Brandon Doughty set all sorts of team records. These developments have proven quite satisfying in the land of mutton BBQ, especially after Bobby Petrino bailed on the program for Louisville after just one season in 2013.
Fortunately, the Tops have continued to progress under Brohm, who has been on the radar of some “Big 5" conference schools and might not be long for WKU if the team continues to succeed and entertain as it has done the past two seasons. To do so this fall, however, might not be so easy, with questions now at the QB spot and significant rebuilding required on the defensive side.
The Tops boasted of a top ten offense a year ago, scoring a staggering 44.3 ppg, but Doughty moved to the NFL and the Miami Dolphins in last April’s draft, and no successor clearly emerged in spring. Thus, the QB battle continues into fall camp with Doughty’s backup, Nelson Fishback, and South Florida transfer Mike White running neck-and-neck. Neither, however, is reminding anyone in Bowling Green of Doughty. Still, whichever QB emerges will have some established weapons at his disposal, including last year’s top two RBs, sr. Anthony Wales and soph D’Andre Ferby, who combined for over 1700 YR and 20 TDs in 2015. The top eight offensive linemen all return from last year as well.
Still, concerns abound with the passing game, even beyond whichever QB eventually wins the job. Keep in mind that Brohm lost two of his top outside receiving threats (Jared Dangerfield and Antwane Grant) to graduation, plus key TE and NFL Rams draftee Tyler Higbee, but sr. WR Taywan Taylor returns after recording 86 catches a year ago.,..while starting only 5 games! After toying with the idea of entering the NFL Draft, Taylor returns for one more year at Bowling Green, yet depth of the receiving corps remains an issue. Speaking of concerns, there are some with the kicking game as well following the graduation of PK Garrett Schwettman, the school’s all-time leading scorer.
The Tops’ defense improved a year ago from one of the nation’s worst in 2014 to a capable platoon that ranked in the middle of most national stat categories, not bad considering the accelerated pace of LY’s WKU games due to the offensive potency. Coordinator Nick Holt, however, must break in seven new starters on the stop unit, though several rotation pieces from last season will now get more-featured roles. A transfer from Louisville, DE Nick Dawson-Brents, should slide into the starting lineup, while another Louisville transfer, sr. Keith Brown, will likely start at an ILB spot. Consider Dawson-Brents and Brown the last gifts to WKU from Petrino.
Aside from a trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama on Sept. 10, WKU should be favored in its other non-conference games, including hosting SEC Vanderbilt on September 17. The C-USA schedule is a bit tricky with road trips to top contenders La Tech, MTSU, and Marshall. Getting the required six wins for bowl consideration should not be too much trouble, but we are reluctant to forecast anything like last year’s 12-2 mark, considering the questions at QB and the significant rebuild needed on defense.
Spread-wise, Brohm enters this season on a 10-5-1 uptick, but that damage was all done with Doughty in the fold. The Tops have also been making quite a fortress out of L.T. Smith Stadium, covering 7 of their last 8 as host.
Considering the quick re-start of the program a few years ago at Old Dominion (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 3-9, O/U 7-5), the Monarchs have come a long way, falling just one win short in their first season of bowl eligibility last fall. After spending two seasons as an FCS Independent, two more years in the CAA, one as an FBS indie, and now two years in C-USA, it amazes that ODU has a 57-27 SU record that span under clever HC Bobby Wilder. Moreover, a new 30,000-seat stadium is in the works to replace old Foreman Field, once the home of annual “Oyster Bowl” games in steamy Norfolk. That’s a lot of accomplishment in a short period of time.
Last year’s 5-7 was far from Wilder’s best mark, but it impressed nonetheless considering it came after the graduation of do-everything QB Taylor Heinecke (who moved to the NFL Vikings), and a spate of injuries, including at the QB spot post-Heinecke.
Now, Wilder is establishing the necessary depth in the program to sustain it at the higher level, no longer fearful of redshirting incoming frosh, and no longer one of the nation’s youngest teams, as the Monarchs were a year ago. Whether that is enough to get ODU to its first bowl game this fall remains to be seen, but Wilder absolutely appears to know what he is doing, and it seems unlikely he meets the same fate anytime soon as another recent college “expansion” coach, UTSA’s Larry Coker.
Some answers at the QB position would be welcomed this fall, though even when soph Shuler Bentley was able to take most of the snaps in spring because sr. David Washington was recovering from ACL surgery, he didn’t lay claim to the job. Providing his knee is properly heeled, most C-USA observers believe the ex-WR Washington, who passed for 1155 yards in a handful of starts last year, is behind center for the September 3 opener vs. Hampton.
If the QB situation can sort itself, the Monarchs might have a chance, because nine starters are back on the attack end, with receivers who caught 211 of the 235 pass completions from a year ago, including top target sr. Zach Pascal (68 receptions in 2015). Expect the TEs to become more involved in the aerial show after dealing with injuries last season. Indeed, the TEs loom more important this season due to relative youth along the OL, where a pair of redshirt frosh are likely to be the starting tackles. ODU also has a effective change-of-pace RB combo in slasher Ray Lawry (1136 YR and 5.9 ypc LY) and banger Jeremy Cox (369 YR & 5.1 ypc in 2015).
As expected, the Monarchs were still down the charts in defensive stats a year ago, but improving depth should help upgrade those numbers in the fall. There are 13 players on the roster who have seen time on the defensive line, including rugged sr. NT Rashaad Coward. Senior T.J. Ricks was C-USA’s leading tackler from last season, but was moved in spring from an inside to an outside LB spot to take advantage of his size and quickness. Three starters also return in the secondary, including both corners, Brandon Addison and Aaron Young.
Outside of a trip to NC State, ODU has a favorable non-league slate, and several winnable games in Norfolk suggest that Wilder's troops could get to the magic six wins for bowl eligibility.
Spread-wise, the Monarchs dropped their first eight vs. the number last season, lowering their 16-game spread mark, dating to early 2014, to 2-14, before covering three of their last four games last fall. After dropping their first seven spread decisions as a favorite, ODU finally covered as chalk last November 14 at home vs. UTEP.
There were times last season when Florida Atlantic (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 5-7, O/U 4-8 ) looked like a formidable team, such as when physically manhandling nearby FIU at Boca Raton. Too often, however, the Owls found ways to lose games, dropping four games by 7 points or fewer, therein costing a chance at bowl eligibility.
That sort of pattern, however, has become familiar for FAU, which has not been able to gain much traction since the end of the Howard Schnellenberger era, which in retrospect lasted a couple of years too long. Desirous of allowing program architect Schnellenberger to coach at least one season in the new Boca Raton stadium when it opened in 2011, the program deteriorated without an heir apparent on staff. When successor Carl Pelini was dismissed midway in the 2013 campaign, the Owls were forced to start from scratch again and lured Charlie Partridge off of Bret Bielema’s Arkansas staff for the 2014 season. A pair of 3-9 records later, FAU continues to spin its wheels.
Thus, Partridge is authorizing major changes for 2016, beginning with a new-look offense that is embracing all of the tenets of video football. It’s no-huddle, uptempo all the way under new o.c. Travis Trickett, most recently at Stanford and the son of Florida State OL coach Rick Trickett. All quite a departure from the jerry-rigged offense of the past few seasons and one that ended 105th in scoring (22.5 ppg) a year ago with ultra-physical QB Jaquez Johnson, who even wore a running back’s number (32) as he would try to run over defenders. Soph Jason Driskel, brother of the former Florida and La Tech QB Jeff, effectively split snaps with Johnson last fall, or RS frosh Daniel Parr, who rejected nearby Miami to sign instead with the Owls, will take their battle from spring into fall camp to determine which will start. Several C-USA observers would not be surprised if Partridge opts to use both early in the season.
Some experienced weapons remain in the mix, as jr. Buddy Howell and sr. Jay Warren have combined to rush for 1871 yards the past two seasons. Though they might have to sacrifice carries to true frosh Devin Singletary, a nearby Deerfield Beach product who spurned offers from the Big Ten to stay close to home. Partridge and Trickett moved 6'6 Nate Terry from TE to the slot in the spring, which also opens up the TE spot for Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cameron, who played some QB for the Deacs but will be utilized as a TE for FAU.
There is also hope that the Owls won’t have to utilize P Dalton Schomp as much as a year ago, but if they do, his 48.0 average was best in the nation and usually gave the Owls a field-position edge last fall.
Despite using ten true frosh on “D” and special teams last season, the stop unit was far from the worst in C-USA and returns some playmakers, including NFL prospect DE Trey Hendrickson, whose 13.5 sacks last season tied for second best in the nation. But with newcomers manning the DT spots, Hendrickson might be dealing with extra attention from opposing blockers in the fall. There is great anticipation that touted frosh DT Kevin McCrary, from up the coast at Daytona Beach, will make an immediate impact. Nickel back Ocie Rose was the big-play star for d.c. Roc Bellationi’s platoon last season, scoring three TDs--only two off of the team lead!
Road games in the first month down I-95 at Sun Life Stadium vs. Miami and at Kansas State appear to be difficult non-league hurdles, but the locals will be disappointed if the Owls can’t beat Southern Illinois and Ball State in Boca Raton. If the new offense clicks, FAU should have a shot at its first bowl since the Schenellenberger era of 2008, though we do not like the recurring pattern of the Owls finding ways to lose close games...a partial indictment, at least to date, of Partridge.
Spread-wise, the glow of the Pelini years, when the Owls were a combined 17-7 vs. the number in 2012-13, has worn off under Partridge, whose teams are 11-13 vs. the line. FAU has maintained its recent underdog prowess, however, standing 9-5 in that role for Partridge after a 14-4 dog mark the previous two seasons combined.
They still haven’t recovered at Florida International (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 6-5, O/U 7-5) from the ill-advised move three years by AD Pete Garcia (who has another fancy title...but we’ll just call him the AD), when he fired up-and-comer HC Mario Cristobal, a Miami-area native who had taken FIU to bowls in 2010 & ‘11, and replaced him with journeyman HC Ron Turner, who has had more jobs over the years than Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.
Nick Saban, who knows a bit more about football than Garcia, would immediately hire Cristobal for his staff at Alabama, while Turner, to no one’s surprise, has struggled with the Golden Panthers, winning just 10 games in three seasons. Noting what happened with Cristobal after the 2012 season, some wise guys in South Beach have suggested that the likely way for Garcia to fire Turner would be for FIU to make a bowl game this season, but we digress.
Turner, whose career HC record is now 52-87 and a generation removed from when he was considered a hot up-and-comer at San Jose State in 1991, is feeling some heat after seeing his team collapse in the final two games of last season. Collapse might be an understatement, as the Golden Panthers were outscored a combined 115-7 by Marshall and WKU, and the game vs. the Tops was even called off early due to weather conditions. All of that after the FIU had clawed to 5-5 and within reach of a bowl bid. That postseason spot might be a prerequisite for Turner to keep his job into 2017...though with AD Garcia, we never know.
There are nine starters back on the offensive end, where Turner needs to develop some consistency or else risk a fourth straight losing season. Junior QB Alex McGough passed for 2722 yards and 21 TDs last season, and will be a three-year starter in the fall, but needs to take the next step as a leader and find ways to win close games. On the plus side, there are nine returning starters on offense, and established playmakers are at the skill positions. Including slashing RB Alex Gardner, who would gain 1200 yards from scrimmage a year ago as he also caught 68 passes. Top receivers wideout Thomas Owens (51 catches LY) and TE Jonnu Smith (36 catches) are also still in the fold. The veteran OL returns all five starters and many of its reserves after an injury-plagued 2015, but even considering the Turner offense is aerial-based, the forward wall needs to do a better job of run blocking as FIU finished 122nd nationally in rushing.
Lack of big plays also haunted the strike force last season, when no run play would gain more than 36 yards, and top receivers like Owens were gaining only 12 yards per catch.
FIU’s defensive numbers were all middle-of-the-road last season though were probably distorted by facing the sluggish attacks of UCF, NC Central, and UTEP. More illuminating might be the fact that six foes gained 450 yards or more. In May, Turner was also forced to juggle his staff after d.c Matt House took a job on Mark Stoops’s staff at Kentucky. Ron Cooper, once upon a time the HC at Louisville, was promoted from DB coach to House’s old coordinator position.
Only four starters return on the stop unit, and just one of those (sr. DT Imarjaye Albury) up front. Cooper will thus need newcomers to generate a pass rush. The return of sr. Davison Colimon, a 2014 starter who tore a pectoral muscle in the opener vs. UCF and missed the rest of last season, should bolster the LB corps. Alongside leading returning tackler Anthony Vint (98 tackles LY), the LB corps might be the strength of the defense. There is some experience in the defensive backfield, with jr. S Niko Gonzalez and CB Deonte Wilson, who started four games at S last season, but they need to generate more plays as Gonzalez was the only member of the returning secondary who had a pick last season (he had two).
FIU has an interesting early schedule with Big Ten Indiana and Maryland both lured to Miami for non-conference dates. The slate picks up again later in the season with a 4-game stretch vs. top C-USA contenders La Tech, MTSU, WKU, and Marshall. It will be hard to consider much progress being made in the program if Turner can’t win at least one of those games. Thus, some C-USA sources believe Turner’s eventual fate is determined by that 4-game stretch.
Spread-wise, Turner had forged a recovery that began late in 2013 and extended into last November, covering 15 in a 21-game run before failing to cover the last three on the board (and it would have been four Ls in a row had the WKU debacle not been called early due to weather). A four-game cover streak vs. nearby FAU was also ended unceremoniously in Boca Raton last Halloween.
And then there was Charlotte (2015 SUR 2-10, PSR 4-7, O/U 5-6), the latest FBS “expansion team” that enters its fourth year of competition this fall. The 49ers got their fans all jumpy last September when winning their first two games out of the chute as a real FBS entry, but reality soon set in and the enormity of the task at hand for HC Brad Lambert was confirmed by ten straight losses. While Charlotte has some capable frontline players, the depth is not yet up to FBS level, even those of C-USA, though no one in the region was expecting the 49ers to win the league in their first try.
They probably won’t win in their second trip around the track, either, but Charlotte might look a bit more like a real team as the 49ers get closer to full capacity and real FBS-level players enter the program. Including the new QB, Kevin Olsen, who began his career at Miami-Fla. but most recently was winging the ball for Riverside JC in California. He’s also the brother of NFL Panthers TE Greg Olsen, so Kevin at least has someone local to show him around town. Other transfer QBs include ex-East Carolina Cody Keith and ex-NC A&T Hasan Klugh, indicating the talent upgrades infusing the nascent 49er program.
With all of these new arms on campus, Lambert has switched last year’s QB, sr. Matt Johnson, to a RB spot, where he likely spots slashing sr. Kalif Phillips, a legit FBS runner who gained 961 YR a year ago despite missing most of the final three games with an injured knee. There are also some established targets for Olsen, as sr. WRs Trent Bostick & Austin Duke and jr. T.I. Ford combined for 1253 yards worth of receptions last fall. Four starters also return on the OL, including All-CUSA frosh G Nate Davis. Depth still needs upgrading along the forward wall, but it’s safe to say this apparently upgraded “O” can exceed last year’s 17.5 ppg, which ranked 119th nationally.
Charlotte’s defense allowed 36 ppg in 2015 but it nonetheless improved markedly a year ago under d.c Matt Wallerstedt, a teammate of Lambert’s in college at Kansas State and having also coordinated at Texas Tech and Air Force. The 49ers cut 58 ypg (down to 419) from 2014 despite playing a much upgraded slate a year ago. Wallerstedt’s 3-4 was stunting and blitzing consistently last season and made enough plays to prevent a few games from becoming runaways the other way.
Eight starters return on defense, led by sr. NG Larry Ogunjobi, who effectively clogs the middle and tied for second in C-USA tackles for loss with 14.5. Seniors man both CB spots, including Terrance Winchester, who recorded four picks last season and scored Charlotte’s first-ever FBS TD when he brought back a fumble to the house in the opening 23-20 win at Georgia State.
No one is expecting much this season from the 49ers, and the support base would probably be content to merely see improvement, fewer lopsided losses, and maybe an extra couple of wins. In another year or two, Lambert is going to need to do a bit better, but for the time being, Charlotte fans will be satisfied with a competitive product that continues to make progress.
Conference USA West Division Preview
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Perhaps the closest thing to a perennial power in Conference USA has been Louisiana Tech (2015 SUR 9-4, PSR 7-6, O/U 8-5), which has quietly cranked out at least eight wins in four of the past five seasons and romped to its second postseason win in a row last December when walloping Arkansas State in the New Orleans Bowl, 12 months after burying Illinois in the Dallas Bowl. Considering the questionable status of the rest of the Western half of the loop, another bowl trip appears likely even with a demanding non-conference slate (more on that in a moment) and some considerable reloading to do after losing various key cogs to graduation.
One key cog that has stuck around, however, is HC Skip Holtz, who seems to have found a home in Ruston. While Holtz might still have a chance re-climb the coaching ladder at a “Big Five” conference school down the road, for the time being he seems content at Tech after being whip-sawed out of his last gig at South Florida. With plenty of security at Tech, Holtz appears in no hurry to leave, and seems very unlikely to make a move similar to Southern Miss’ Todd Monken, who bailed out last winter to take a job on the staff of the NFL Tampa Bay Bucs.
(Besides, the NFL and the Holtz family don’t seem to mix, as those of us old enough to remember papa Lou’s one disastrous season with the New York Jets in 1976 before heading back to the college ranks at Arkansas, know. So we don’t think Bulldog fans have to worry about Skip doing a “Todd Monken” anytime soon.)
Admittedly, however, the fact we are placing Tech on top of its division of C-USA has a much to do with the plight of the other entries in the Western half all having as many or more questions than the Bulldogs. With half of the West also employing new head coaches this fall, the relative stability Holtz provides Tech must be viewed as a positive for the Ruston bunch, too.
Holtz, who has done a nice job resurrecting his career at Tech, nonetheless has some significant questions to answer entering this season. A potent offense that ranked in the top 20 nationally in scoring (37.5 ppg) must replace a pair of NFL draftees in productive QB Jeff Driskel and decorated RB Kenneth Dixon, the latter a TD machine who was a fourth-round pick of the Ravens last April. Dixon’s 87 career TDs will be almost impossible for one player to replace, as Holtz and new o.c. Todd Fitch likely to employ a RB-by-committee approach, with jr. waterbug Boston Scott (who gained 8.1 ypc in limited work last season that included a 77-yard run in the bowl win) the most likely to get extra carries.
The QB position, however, is drawing the most scrutiny after Holtz was blessed with grad transfers Cody Sokol (via Iowa) and Driskel (via Florida) the last two seasons. Driskel, a sixth-round pick of the 49ers, passed for over 4000 yards and 27 TDs last year out of the Holtz spread, but expected replacement jr. Ryan Higgins is not a greenhorn, having started six games pre-Sokol and Driskel, way back in 2013, when injuries decimated the QB position for Skip’s first Bulldog edition. Higgins understandably struggled (just 6 TDP and 13 picks) when thrown in the fire as a frosh, but is now three years older and well-versed in the Holtz offense.
Moreover, the versatile Higgins, who solidified his starting status in spring, is comfy in the read-option, though his primary task will be to get the ball in the hands of an experienced receiving corps which returns three starters including glue-fingered slot man Trent Taylor (99 catches last season) and deep threat wide man Carlos Henderson (21.5 yards per reception in 2015). Utah transfer Alfred Smith is another Henderson-like speedburner who along with soph returnee Kam McKnight were the main storylines of the spring game when combining for 226 yards worth of receptions. The line is in good shape with three returning starters plus G Kirby Watson, a starter in 2014 who missed all of 2015 due to injury.
While most C-USA observers believe the offense will not drop off too much from recent editions, especially if QB Higgins is up to the task, there are question about a “D” that lost eight starters from one of the better stop units in the conference. Very difficult to replace will be star DT Vernon Butler, a 1st-round NFL draft pick of the Carolina Panthers and a main reason the Bulldogs were able to rank 13th nationally vs. the run a year ago.
Transfers, including ex-Arizona State CB Ronald Lewis, ex-Hawaii CB Jerrell Jackson, and juco S DeMarion King, all figure to get a chance to play in a hurry in the secondary around SS Xavier Woods, an All-CUSA pick as a frosh. The Butler-less DL returns starting DEs Aaron Brown and Deldrick Canty. The real concern for d.c. Blake Baker is a completely new LB corps that will be counting heavily upon RS frosh Donald Scott and Collin Scott to step into the mix and deliver right away.
Tech has dealt with tough non-league schedules before and this season will be no different, as the Bulldogs figure to be substantial road underdogs in September dates at Arkansas and Texas Tech. Early league tests at Middle Tennessee and at home vs. Western Kentucky will prove more enlightening regarding any expected challenge for conference honors. The West title might eventual come down to a season-ending showdown vs. Southern Miss, a game in which Holtz should have no trouble getting the Bulldogs ready after the Golden Eagles won 58-24 at Ruston last November.
Spread-wise, remember that Holtz was highly successful in a dog role a decade ago at East Carolina and is 6-1 as the “short” the past two seasons. After covering 8 of 9 away from Joe Aillet Stadium in 2014, the Bulldogs only covered 2 of 6 on the road last season, though Skip’s two-year overall spread mark is a solid 18-9.
Fans at Southern Miss (2015 SUR 9-5, PSR 10-4, O/U 6-8 ) were reminded once again of their place in college football’s pecking order after HC Todd Monken abruptly left his post for a chance to return to the NFL, this time on the Tampa Bay Bucs staff, after the Golden Eagles forged an uplifting breakthrough campaign last fall. Though Monken’s surprise departure should not be equated with other disappearing acts into the night, like when the Colts abandoned Baltimore in the dead of night in early 1984 and headed to Indianapolis. After all, it’s not often that coaches have a chance to make a move from Hattiesburg straight into the NFL and a coordinator’s gig. Moreover, Monken has NFL roots and a connection to new Tampa Bay HC Dirk Koetter, with whom Monken served on the Jacksonville Jaguars staff between 2007-10. Even the most diehard USM boosters did not begrudge Monken for his move.
Rather than look on staff for Monken’s replacement, however, the Golden Eagles turned to Jay Hopson, who most recently had resurrected the fortunes at Alcorn State as the HC of the Braves. Hopson also has USM roots, having served two stints on Jeff Bower’s staffs between 2001-03 and 2005-07, so he is not completely unfamiliar with Roberts Stadium and Hattiesburg.
Thus, Golden Eagles fans have a bit better feel about the new braintrust than they did four years ago, when the program collapsed under Ellis Johnson, a decorated defensive coordinator who had failed in previous HC attempts and did the same at Hattiesburg, losing all 12 games in 2012 after Larry Fedora high-tailed it to North Carolina. The program had been destructed in short order before Monken arrived in 2013 and began to slowly put the pieces together, resulting in last year’s crown in the West half of the loop and a berth in the Dallas Bowl. Along with Monken’s move, o.c. du jour Chip Lindsey was also targeted and took a big pay raise to assume the same role at Arizona State.
Hopson, and new o.c. Shannon Dawson (who was dismissed at Kentucky after last season), both have roots in the “Air Raid” so don’t expect too many schematic changes in the Golden Eagle offense that would dramatically more than double its per game scoring output last year, up to a whopping 39.9 ppg, ranking 13th in the country. Moreover, the trigger-man of the renaissance, QB Nick Mullens, returns for his senior season after passing for a whopping 4476 yards and 38 TDs a year ago. Thus, changing much of the offensive philosophy would seem ill-advised.
Mullens, a four-year starter and last year’s C-USA Offensive MVP, has several of his key weapons returning around him, including jitterbug RB Ito Smith, who bounced for 1128 YR in the balanced Golden Eagle “O” that would rank 12th nationally last season. The OL is long in the tooth with three multi-year starters led by C Cameron Tom, an All-CUSA selection.
Another plus for Mullens is the return of sr. WR D.J. Thompson, who caught a hefty 55 passes a year ago. Former Middle Tennessee and juco transfer Shannon Smith has big-play potential that was flashed in spring, while holdover soph Korey Robertson is expected to make contributions.
The defense will have more overt changes from the platoon that provided almost equal improvement to the offense a year ago when the Golden Eagles ranked first in C-USA in yards allowed. Hopson, however, has brought in his own d.c., Tony Pecoraro, who plans to transition USM from its traditional 4-3 base alignments into a more multiple scheme featuring 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 looks. Last year’s coordinator, David Duggan, who oversaw the dramatic upgrades, has been reassigned to coach the LBs.
Many of the headliners from last year’s defense, including leading tackler sr. D’Nerius Antoine, who flourished last season at FS but was moved to OLB in spring, top pass rusher sr. DE Dylan Bradley, and a pair of stalwarts in the secondary, jr. CB Cornell Armstrong and all-name DD Picasso Nelson, Jr., remain in the fold. Like Antoine, however, Bradley was also position-switched in spring, moved to DT by the new staff, causing some C-USA observers to wonder if Hopson and Pecoraro might be doing a bit too much tampering with what was a pretty good thing last fall. Time will tell.
One area that could use some upgrading is on special teams, where sr. PK Stephen Brauchle missed four PATs and his only FG try beyond 40 yards last season. Meanwhile, sr. P Tyler Sarazin hit more line drives last fall than Ichiro Suzuki, as only one of his 45 punts resulted in a fair catch.
The schedule includes two non-league road games at SEC entries, but the Golden Eagles think they have a shot in the opener at Kentucky, where o.c. Dawson returns with a score to settle with Mark Stoops. A midseason trip to LSU will prove a more difficult assignment. USM might also be favored in all of its C-USA games and gets only Marshall among the top contenders from the East half. Thus, another bowl visit is a minimum expectation this fall, though we wonder about the various staff and scheme changes on “D” that might make it hard to replicate last season’s nine wins and C-USA West crown.
Spread-wise, Monken forged quite a turnaround last season, as the Golden Eagles improved to 10-4 vs. the number after covering just 7 of 24 tries in Monken’s first two campaigns. The Golden Eagles also handled several big numbers last season en route to a 7-1 mark as chalk.
Longtime fans at Rice (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 5-7, O/U 7-5) have seen worse than the late-season collapse last fall that broke the Owls’ three-year bowl streak. After all, this was a program that went 45 years between 1961-2006 without going to a bowl and did not record a winning record for the entirety of the ‘70s or ‘80s. So, for those Rice fans who can vividly recall the Gemini and Apollo space programs and the heyday of crosstown Mission Control, last year’s fade was no big deal. But new-age Owl backers who have been used to some degrees of success in the HC David Bailiff era could be excused for voicing their displeasure when last season would unravel after a promising beginning.
It wasn’t just that 2015 took a nosedive for the Owls, it was the manner of their late-season collapse that alarmed the handful of loyal backers of the second-smallest FBS school (only Tulsa being smaller enrollment-wise). Though having the excuse of being injury-riddled, the Rice defense nonetheless collapsed down the stretch last season, reaching its nadir when on the wrong end of a 65-10 bombing by Southern Miss in mid-November. When the dust had cleared, the Owls ranked a nation’s worst in yards per play defense (7.1 ypp), while also finishing near the bottom of national stats in sacks (ranking a poor 111th with a mere 16) and with only two interceptions, part of a measly 10 takeaways, which tied for last in the country.
Obviously, Rice has a crying need for playmakers on its traditionally undersized defense, though again, the spate of injuries a year ago had something to do with the downturn. Bailiff was forced to use 31 true or redshirt frosh in 2015, the highest such mark in the country.
As usual, the Owls’ best chance is to simply outscore foes, but that might be a bit more difficult after the departure of longtime QB Driphus Jackson. Senior Tyler Stehling, Jackson’s caddy the past two years, gets his one shot at running the offense this fall after limited work a year ago when competing 24 of 48 passes for 320 yards and 2 TDs in five games. The 6'6 Stehling is regarded as an accurate passer and is not afraid to move out of the pocket, but he does not quite bring the mobility that allowed Jackson to run some read-option the past two years. Instead, the Owls expected to run more uptempo this season after Bailiff switched assignments for some of his offensive assistants, with Billy Lynch assuming play-calling duties and Larry Edmondson concentrates on the QBs in Rice’s unique co.-o.c. arrangement.
Though the Owls are expected to play at a faster pace, the infantry component is not likely to be abandoned after Rice has been consistently able to balance its offense in recent years. In fact, the run might become more integral this fall with the top four RBs still in the fold from a year ago, including 215-lb. sr. slasher Darik Dillard, who has accounted for more than 1300 yards plus 16 TDs the past two seasons. The ability to establish the run also allows Rice to play a bit more ball control and keep its vulnerable defense off of the field. Three starters return on the OL, including soph tackles Calvin Anderson and Sam Pierce, who had to grow up quickly a year ago when thrown into the fire as frosh.
Still, Stehling rates as a bit of an unknown especially in comparison to predecessor Jackson, who was able to get the ball downfield and into the hands of his receivers with some consistency. There is experience among the passing targets, with sr. WR Zach Wright (39 catches LY) the leading receiver in 2015, while jr. WR Temi Alaka and sr. TE Connor Celia are other returning starters.
Bailiff also is casting a wary eye upon his kicking game, especially with former walk-on PK Hayden Tobola making just 8 of his 13 FG tries a year ago. Moreover, effective P James Farrimond has graduated, though soph replacement Jack Fox reportedly has a strong leg.
Of course, getting back to a bowl will require a better showing on defense after last season’s meltdown. Beleaguered coordinator Chris Thurmond is hoping that the experience forged by fire due to injuries last fall will provide him with more capable depth as eight starters return to the defensive fold. For what it’s worth, Bailiff claims to be impressed with the platoon’s athleticism, speed, and ability to tackle well in space, though Rice could do no better than hold foes to 36 ppg last season, tied for a poor 108th in the nation.
The DL rotation, mostly comprised of frosh a year ago, simply must generate more QB pressure. Junior DE Grayson Schantz, who missed all but one game last season due to a torn ACL, is expected to help juice the pass rush. The pivot point of the platoon is sr. MLB Alex Lyons, who has led the Owls in tackles each of the past two seasons. Thurmond experimented with some position switches in spring, including sr. Tabari McCaskey, moved from OLB to SS, a change expected to stick into the regular season.
Despite last season’s fade, the Owls did not exactly fall off of the map with five wins, and they’ve won a respectable 30 games since 2012, the most in a four-year span in school history. They’ve also opened up a new $31 million football center in one of the endzones at the refurbished Rice Stadium, now downsized to 47,000 seats but still offering some of the best sightlines in college football. With the exception of a Sept. 17 visit by Baylor, Rice figures to have a chance to win the other five home games in its new-look stadium, though the road slate is treacherous, with trips to C-USA powers Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, and La Tech, plus a season-ender at Pac-12 heavyweight Stanford. Still, there appear to be enough winnable dates for the Owls to once again get bowl-eligible.
Spread-wise, Bailiff has often delivered impressive marks in his nine years on the job, and had covered 27 times over a 38-game stretch into early last season before the Owls dropped 7 of their last 9 vs. the number. Bailiff has been able to take care of business lately as home chalk, covering 12 of 16 in that role since 2012.
It’s not easy getting to back-to-back bowls at UTEP (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 6-6, O/U 4-8 ), which has turned that trick only once in the past 61 years, when Mike Price took his first two Miner editions into the postseason in 2004 & ‘05. So, using that as context, perhaps there should be no alarms going off at the Sun Bowl after HC Sean Kugler was unable to follow up the 2014 New Mexico Bowl qualifier with another bowl visit last season.
Still, the plight of the UTEPs of the college football world was underlined quite nicely, unfortunately so, by the 2015 Miners, who could not sustain a move to the .500 mark with a rash of injuries that exposed the lack of depth that often hinders programs in the lower reaches of the FBS ranks. Though considering how the QB position, among others, was impacted, perhaps Kugler did well to get to five wins, especially with an offense that would rank a poor 112th (at a mere 20.7 ppg) in scoring. Along the way, Kugler’s team demonstrated some scrap, winning three games by exactly three points.
Entering his fourth season at his alma mater, Kugler does seem to have progressed the program from the deteriorating hulk he inherited from Price in 2013. Still, there is a bit of unease in the border town, where locals who cheer for the AAA Chihuahuas of of the PCL during baseball season believe Kugler might be the coach to finally lend stability and success to the program. Others, however, noting that Kugler is well-regarded in the profession and has past experience in the NFL ranks, wonder if Kugler might soon take the Todd Monken route out of C-USA and back to the pro ranks if the opportunity should arise. Stay tuned for further developments.
In the meantime, the Miners seem to have a fighting chance to get back into the bowl mix, but only if Kugler can find some continuity at the QB position. Mack Leftwich, who took most of the snaps last fall, was lost for the season in spring due to an arm injury, and 2015 backups Ryan Metz and Kavika Johnson were less than convincing in their spring work. There is a new option, Fresno State graduate transfer Zack Greenlee, who made a handful of starts for the Bulldogs and has two years of eligibility remaining. Greenlee, however, left much to be desired with his performances in Fresno. Thus, Kugler enters fall camp without a clear idea who will be taking snaps for the opener vs. New Mexico State on September 3.
On what appears to be the plus side, Kugler, calling on past coaching contacts, in particular the Fiesta Bowl-winning Boise State staff on which he served in 2006, dialed up old friend Brent Pease, also on that Broncos staff, to take over as offensive coordinator. While Pease works on sorting out the QB mess, he can call upon slashing RB Aaron Jones, who gained 1314 YR in 2014 before missing almost all of last season with an ankle injury. The top receivers from 2015 all return, including wideouts Jaquan White and Tyler Batson, who combined for 78 receptions a year ago. There is a behemoth, Arkansas-sized OL averaging 320 pounds that has ample experience with three returning starters and the most NFL-looking player on the roster in 330-lb. RT Jerrod Brooks. Touted juco transfer Tanner Stallings is slated to start at the C spot.
The new coordinator theme continues on defense with the addition of vet d.c. Tom Mason, most recently at Hawaii but before that having established his credentials with June Jones at SMU and Pat Hill at Fresno State. Mason, looking forward to some calm after being part of staffs where the head coaches (Jones at SMU in 2014, and Norm Chow at Hawaii last season) changed during the season the past two years, will be altering things on the stop end, importing his time-tested 3-4 alignment to replace the 4-2-5, intent on installing his “fire-blitz” schemes that have blitzed on approximately 70% of plays the past few seasons.
Mason’s blitzing might be extra risky with a secondary that has been exploited routinely in recent years and ranked a poor 110th in pass defense a year ago. Getting back 2014 All-CUSA SS Devin Cockrell, who missed last season with injury, adds a potential anchor to the defensive backfield. There is plenty of experience surrounding Cockrell, most of it from being thrown into the fire due to injuries a year ago. The other projected first-stringers in the secondary have 19 starts between them.
Though eight players return to the "D" with starting experience, Mason was doing plenty of juggling in the spring with position changes designed to better fit the new 3-4 looks. Former DTs Brian Madunezim and Mike Sota have both been moved to DE to flank NG Gino Breselin, who will be a third-year starter in the fall. Some of the DEs from 2015 have been switched to OLB spots in the new scheme. Last year’s leading tackler Alvin Jones anchors the LB group from his position on the inside.
A year ago, the Miners were not helped by playing just five games in the Sun Bowl, but this season will have the benefit of seven home games, with winnable non-conference dates vs. nearby NMSU and Army sandwiched around a trip to Texas, and FCS Houston Baptist perhaps providing a W that will be valuable for bowl candidacy. If UTEP can avoid last year’s rash of injuries and new o.c. Pease steers some consistency out of his available QBs, a return to the postseason mix is not out of the question.
Spread-wise, Kugler has made a nice fortress out of the Sun Bowl, where the Miners are 7-2-1 vs. the line the past two years. UTEP also covered 5 of its last 6 a year ago after the bottom seemed to drop out of the season following embarrassing back-to-back losses to UTSA and FIU, suggesting some real resilience within the Miner ranks.
No one in Denton would complain if they could simply walk everything back and forget last season at North Texas (2015 SUR 1-11, PSR 4-8, O/U 5-7), where the campaign became a train wreck by Columbus Day and prompted the in-season dismissal of sour HC Dan McCarney. The Mean Green team could not have pretended any better to be sabotaging its much-disliked coach when refusing to compete in the homecoming game vs. Big Sky Portland State, which roared to a 45-0 halftime lead and stretched the margin to 66-0 before UNT averted a shutout in the final two minutes. The decision to can McCarney was probably reached by halftime but administrators would wait until the game concluded before un-apologetically hitting the eject button on their head coach.
The Mean Green could have been excused for humming the “Wicked Witch is Dead” tune from the Wizard of Oz in the wake of McCarney’s ouster, and did become more competitive thereafter under o.c. and interim HC Mike Canales, who had pulled similar duty a few years before when McCarney predecessor Todd Dodge was also a midseason casualty. UNT actually covered the spread in four of its last seven games and would notch its lone straight-up W of the season when topping UTSA at futuristic Apogee Stadium, 30-23. Though Canales, who deserved an award for keeping the UNT ship afloat as he did following Dodge’s dismissal five years earlier, was not retained and has landed on the staff of Matt Wells at Utah State.
Still, a thorough housecleaning was in order just two years after UNT would record a 9-4 SU mark and win the Dallas Bowl over UNLV. Stepping into the breach is the well-regarded Seth Littrell, most recently o.c. for Larry Fedora at North Carolina and the Tar Heels, who would rank in the top ten nationally in scoring last season. Though some wondered why the 37-year-old Littrell would take the Mean Green job, others have correctly pointed out that UNT, due to its resources and location at the north end of the talent-rich DFW Metroplex, is in fact an ideal stepping-stone position, and that it should not take long for the right coach to win at Denton in C-USA.
Whether that happens this season is open to conjecture, however, as the Littrell spread would appear a poor fit for the inherited talent recruited to run a pro-style offense during the McCarney years. But the Mean Green plans to wing it for Littrell and his o.c. Graham Harrell, another Air Raid disciple dating from his days as a QB for Mike Leach at Texas Tech and most recently on the Leach staffs at Washington State.
The first dilemma for Littrell and Harrell is to find a QB to run the Air Raid. At the outset, look for Alabama grad transfer Alec Morris, who couldn’t advance beyond third string at Tuscaloosa the past couple of years, to take the snaps. Morris does not have many established targets on hand; jr. Turner Smiley is the only returning wideout who caught more than 15 passes a year ago (Smiley caught all of 25). But, the McCarney offense wasn’t exactly designed to pile up the aerial stats, ranking 126th in passing efficiency a year ago. C-USA sources suggest that some of the untested wideouts from last season, such as potential big-play threat soph Tee Goree, might emerge as surprising weapons.
Littrell does inherit a quality RB, jr. Jeffrey Wilson, who gained 830 YR a year ago as well as a decent receiver out of the backfield, and also perhaps the bridge between the past UNT offense and the new one. Scatback Willy Ivery gained 6.6 ypc a year ago and provides a nice change-of-pace. A combination of transfers and young charges hope to form a cohesive OL around a couple of returning starters, including C Kaydon Kirby, who missed spring after the passing of his father but is expected back in the fall.
Unfortunately for Littrell, the stop unit he inherits in Denton was even worse a year ago than the offense, allowing a whopping 41.3 ppg and ranking in triple digits in every meaningful defensive category. New d.c. Mike Ekeler, used to working with more talent after career stops at Georgia, Nebraska, USC, and LSU, has reckoned (correctly, it would seem) that there is not enough DL manpower on hand to effectively run the Mean Green’s old 4-3. Thus, springtime was spent installing the new-look 3-4 with lots of nickel packages that appears a better fit with an overflow of secondary components on hand. Four starters return in the defensive backfield, and safeties James Gray and Kishawn McClain were UNT’s leading tacklers a year ago.
Gray and McClain, however, were required to make over 100 tackles each a year ago, suggesting bigger problems up front, especially a rush defense that was one of the worst in the country when allowing a whopping 240 ypg. The new-look “D” will feature hybrid positions at DE/LB and LB/nickel back. Jucos Josh Wheeler and Eji Ejiya and even true frosh William Johnson are expect to make major contributions in those roles and provide support around sr. LB Fred Scott, one of six returning starters on the platoon.
The Mean Green enters 2016 flying well under the radar, but aside from a mid-September trip to Florida does not look to be that overmatched in the rest of its non-league slate. Of course, how quickly the new Littrell offense begins to click, or resemble clicking, and how much improvement the new schemes provide on defense will determine whatever level of upgrade UNT achieves from a year ago. After losing 66-7 to Portland State last October, it would be hard drop much lower.
Spread-wise, the Mean Green would lose 13 of its last 17 on the board under McCarney before making the aforementioned mild recovery down the stretch a year ago under Canales. Still, UNT was only 8-16 vs. the number the past two seasons, including 5-13 its last 18 as a dog. As mentioned before, there’s nowhere to go but up for Littrell and the rest of his new staff in Denton.
They like their football in the state of Texas, even at a relatively-new gridiron outpost such as UTSA (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 5-7, O/U 7-5). Much like their counterparts elsewhere in the Lone Star State, the Roadrunner backers also want to win now, and the thank you they gave program architect HC Larry Coker for getting UTSA football off the ground after a 2011 debut was forcing him out after two consecutive disappointing seasons.
In retrospect, Coker devoted much energy to getting the program competitive ASAP, and his collection of transfers and jucos would get the Roadrunners up to speed by year three, when they would fashion a 7-5 SU mark and a 5-3 record in their first year of C-USA competition. Unfortunately, much of the core of the team would graduate after 2013, and the next wave of replenishments had to hit the ground running in 2014 & ‘15. On occasion, the Roadrunners would compete, but after getting the locals excited in 2013, the recent dropoff proved a letdown.
Tasked with helping the program reach the next level is new HC Frank Wilson, hired away from LSU, where he served as the RB coach for Les Miles. Wilson, rumored for several jobs the past couple of years, has a reputation as a top-flight recruiter, but has never been a head coach in his career. Thus, we are a bit reluctant to forecast a big upgrade for the Roadrunners, remembering how another recent LSU RB coach, Larry Porter, with credentials much the same as Wilson’s, would fail miserably in a disastrous 2-year head coaching stint at Memphis.
Wilson’s first task is to pump some life into a listless offense that would rank 104th in scoring (just 22.6 ppg) a year ago. Fortunately for Wilson, grad transfer QB Jared Johnson arrives from Stephen F Austin after earning Southland Conference Offensive MVP honors a year ago. While with the Bearkats, Johnson passed for 5352 yards and ran for another 1601, and allows Wilson and his new o.c. Frank Scelfo to utilize some read-option packages if they so desire. Of course, jr. Dalton Sturm is still in the mix after taking the majority of the snaps last season and passing for 1354 yards and 13 TDs. Wilson thus has what seems are two decent options to run the offense.
There are also supporting weapons in place, including sr. RB Jarveon Williams, who banged his way to 1042 YR last fall despite fighting thru injuries that would cause him to miss the finale vs. MTSU. With Williams doing the heavy-duty work, UTSA would run the ball over 50% of the time a year ago, and Wilson’s roots at run-happy LSU suggest the infantry will also be featured this fall at the Alamodome. Last year’s leading receiver, wideout Kerry Thomas, Jr., returns after catching 52 passes, though replacing key TE David Morgan (NFL Vikings sixth-round pick) might not be easy.
Three starters are back along an OL that did a decent job opening holes for Williams and other RBs but needs to shore up its pass blocking after allowing 44 sacks a year ago. Wilson will also need better production from PK Daniel Portillo, who was just 1-for-7 on FG tries beyond 40 yards and missed 5 PATs last season.
Wilson and new d.c. Pete Golding plan to temporarily keep the stop unit’s existing 4-2-5 looks, utilized in the Coker regime, for at least one more season as it still appears the best fit for the personnel on hand. The strength on the stop side figures to be the DL which returns three of four starters from a platoon that held its own vs. the run but was often torched thru the air a year ago. Watch the progress of 6'6 DE Marcus Davenport, who has All-CUSA potential if he can add a bit more weight and strength to his frame.
There are concerns, however, across the back seven, where playmakers need to emerge at the LB spots, and where newcomers will be starting on both corners. There is some experience in the secondary, however, where safeties Michael Egwuaga and Nate Gaines combined for six picks a year ago, and where a starter at a safety spot in 2014, Chase Dahlquist, returns to active duty after missing all of 2015 due to injury. Still, upgrades are required for what was the lowest-ranked C-USA pass defense and the 117th nationally vs. the pass a year ago.
Aside from the opener vs. Alabama State, the Roadrunners are going to be significant underdogs in their other non-league games at Colorado State, home vs. Arizona State, and at Texas A&M. Yet there are what appears to be some winnable dates in C-USA. Still, Wilson’s credentials as a head coach are unknown, and he must sort out the QB situation while hoping to forge some upgrades on defense for the ‘runners to improve upon last year’s 3 wins. That might be a challenge.
Spread-wise, Coker’s teams were underperforming on the road the past two seasons, covering just 3 of 11 chances away from the Alamodome, and were just 7-15 vs. the number their last 22 on board. Those numbers do not present much of a bar for Wilson’s first edition to clear.
Conference USA Football Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2015: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +260
Season win total: 8
Why to bet the Golden Eagles: After winning just three games from 2012-2014, the Golden Eagles got back to prominence as they took the C-USA West and won nine games overall. Of the other four top teams in C-USA, Southern Miss only has to play two of them, Marshall and Louisiana Tech, and both of those are at home. This team is equally solid on both sides of the ball and brings back 12 starters.
Why not to bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss broke school records last season on offense for both yardage and points but the architects for that offense have left as head coach Todd Monken and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey departed. Additionally, the quarterback, leading receiver and top rusher have to be replaced so production should go down. The Golden Eagles are no longer a pushover and will not sneak up on anyone.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Marshall Thundering Herd (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +350
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Thundering Herd: After some very average years upon entering C-USA, Marshall is building a powerhouse. The Thundering Herd have won 33 games the last three years including three bowl wins and Doc Holiday should have his team poised to make another run in the East Division. While the conference schedule is no cakewalk, two of the three toughest games are at home.
Why not to bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall did lose a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Offensively, it has to replace the top two receivers and two top running backs so sophomore quarterback Chase Litton could struggle early on to move the ball. On the other side, C-USA Defensive Player of the Year Evan McKelvey is gone along with other key players on defense so there are a lot of missing pieces.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2015: 12-2 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +385
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky is coming off its fifth straight winning season and last year was the best of them all at 12-2. The Hilltoppers went undefeated in C-USA and after a win over South Florida in the Miami Beach Bowl, they finished No. 24 in the final AP Poll, the first time they have ever cracked the top 25. Jeff Brohm is 20-7 as the head coach at Western Kentucky but likely will not be here much longer.
Why not to bet the Hilltoppers: Even coming close to the success from last season will be difficult as there will be a lot of revenge minded teams taking aim at the Hilltoppers. It will be a tough task having to replace quarterback Brandon Doughty who won the C-USA Most Valuable Player Award. While the Hilltoppers miss Southern Miss, the three toughest conference games this season are all on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2015: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +625
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee is pegged by many to win the C-USA Championship and it certainly has the pieces in place to do so. The Blue Raiders won their last four regular season games last year and while they lost to Western Michigan in the Bahamas Bowl, they have solid momentum heading into the season. The offense should be great again and has an added edge with offensive coordinator Tony Franklin back.
Why not to bet the Blue Raiders: While Middle Tennessee has not had a losing season in four years, it has not been able to make a huge jump as they are just 29-21 over this stretch. The offense will have to carry the load as the defense has to rebuild nearly from scratch with the loss of six valuable starters. The Blue Raiders have just five home games and two of those are against Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2015: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Skip Holtz has done a great job taking over for Sonny Dykes and Louisiana Tech has four winning records over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are one of five teams to likely bring home the C-USA Championship and they may sneak up on the teams above them. An extremely tough September will prepare them well for the last two months of the season.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The opening month will be even tougher because of how young this team is. Louisiana Tech brings back just nine starters, the fewest in the conference, including only three on defense. While the offense is a little more experienced, a new quarterback has to replace Jeff Driskel while running back Kenneth Dixon was drafted in the fourth round showing how good he was.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Florida Atlantic Owls (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 4.5
Why to bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic could be the surprise of the conference this season. The Owls have not had a winning season in three years in C-USA and have not had a winning season since 2008. This means they will again be taken lightly but that could turn into a mistake. They have 14 starters back, they are very athletic and they are bringing in a new high-powered offense which should have most teams caught off guard.
Why not to bet the Owls: Despite what looks like a good chance to turn things around, this is only on paper. The Owls have to have someone emerge at quarterback and while they have a good number of returning starters, most are very young returning starters. The home slate looks very good with plenty of wins but the road schedule is brutal with games at FIU and Rice being the only possible winnable contests.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Rice Owls (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 6
Why to bet the Owls: After three straight winning seasons and three straight bowl appearances, which was a first for the program, the Owls slipped to 5-7 last season after a 4-3 start. There should be plenty of motivation to get back to a bowl game and with 16 returning starters, third most in C-USA, Rice has the ability to succeed. Rice finished 119th in turnover margin last season so that area should improve.
Why not to bet the Owls: Motivation can only take a team so far. The Owls are going to have to show dramatic improvement to get back to a bowl game as the schedule is its greatest enemy this season. They have to travel to Western Kentucky opening night and two other big challenges in the conference are also on the road. The non-conference schedule includes games against Baylor and Stanford.
Season win total pick: Under 6
UTEP Miners (2015: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3600
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Miners: The Miners went to a bowl game in 2014 and had high expectations last season but injuries derailed them. They nearly became bowl eligible but because of the injuries, other players got experience which will pay huge dividends this season. The schedule sets up well as a trip to Texas is the only non-conference hurdle while UTEP closes the season with seven straight winnable games.
Why not to bet the Miners: While change can be good depending on what it entails, too much change can cause problems. The Miners are breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball and both are making significant changes to schemes. Things could get ugly early with that game against Texas and back-to-back games against conference contenders Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech in Week 4 and 5.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Old Dominion Monarchs (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Monarchs: In just two years as a full member at the FBS level, Old Dominion has gone 11-13 so there is a lot of excitement for the future of this program. And that future could start this season as the Monarchs bring back 17 starters, tied for most in the conference, so the disappointment from last season is present in many players in 2016 which can make them even more hungry.
Why not to bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion lost its season finale by two points last season which denied it a bowl berth but it would have been a fortunate one. The Monarchs won three of their games by five points or less while six of seven losses came by 20 points or more. The 5-7 record was certainly skewed and with big questions at quarterback, those close wins may not be on the horizon.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Florida International Golden Panthers (2015: 5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +5000
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Golden Panthers: Things have improved in each of the three years under head coach Ron Turner, going from one win to four wins to five wins. There is room for an even bigger jump this season thanks to nine returning starters on offense, a unit that struggled last season but should get a lot better. The schedule is ranked as one of the easier ones in the conference but it will still take an upset or two to make it to a bowl.
Why not to bet the Golden Panthers: While the front end of the schedule is light, the Golden Panthers play a stretch of four straight games against contenders so any early slip up and they could be toast. The defense was a bad unit last season and if the offense does not take a big step forward, the stop unit does not have what it takes to make up for it. FIU has only two winning seasons in the history of the program.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
UTSA Roadrunners (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +15000
Season win total: 4
Why to bet the Roadrunners: Things have been going in the wrong direction for UTSA since entering the FBS in 2013, so in this case, change could be good. Larry Coker is no longer the head coach as Frank Wilson takes over after leaving his assistant job at LSU. The Roadrunners have a solid running game and that is the specialty of White so grinding out some wins could lead the turnaround of the program.
Why not to bet the Roadrunners: Back in 2013, the Roadrunners were the most experienced team in the country and it showed with a 7-5 record but they have not been nearly as experienced since then including this season as they return just 10 starters, second fewest in the conference. As is the case with a lot of teams in C-USA, defense is the weak point and that is an understatement for UTSA.
Season win total pick: Under 4
North Texas Mean Green (2015: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +20000
Season win total: 2
Why to bet the Mean Green: North Texas will be doing a complete overhaul with a new head coach as well as new coordinators so teams will not be prepared for what to expect. The Mean Green bring back nine of 11 starters on defense so it will be up to that unit to hold the team together until the offense comes around. A 2-0 start is not out of the question as North Texas hosts SMU and Bethune Cookman out of the gate.
Why not to bet the Mean Green: The defense may have to carry the team all season because the offense may not come around at all. The scheme is being completely replaced and with players not recruited at some of those spots, another season of finishing 124th in scoring offense could be in store. 10 of 11 losses last season were by at least 14 points, five of which came by 30 points. It could be another long one in Denton.
Season win total pick: Over 2
Charlotte 49ers (2015: 2-10 SU, 2-7-2 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +21000
Season win total: 2.5
Why to bet the 49ers: Despite their first season as an FBS member, the 49ers did not finish last in the conference. Not much went right last year but that was expected for a team making the jump up a level. Charlotte returns 17 starters, tied with Old Dominion for most in the conference, so while the scoreboard may not reflect many additional wins, the 49ers will be a lot more competitive
Why not to bet the 49ers: While the 49ers did not finish last, they closed the season on a 10-game losing streak and are picked to finish last this season. Experience is a good thing to have but sometimes that experience is a bad fit and that could be the case here, especially on defense. Charlotte plays three of the top five teams in the conference and has non-conference games at Louisville and Temple so the slate is a rough one.
Season win total pick: Under 2.5