Tony Finn
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -134
Minnesota vs. Baltimore tonight in the second game of this American League series is scheduled to see first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET on Oriole Park Field at Camden Yards. The Twins send veteran right-hander Ervin Santana (6-2, 2.07 ERA) to the hill to oppose Orioles righty Dylan Bundy (5-2, 2.97).
Santana was thought to have a big advantage in his last start against the Colorado Rockies. It was a cold and dry night at Target Field and typically in conditions not hot and humid Santana is at this best mitigating his fly ball tendencies. Throw in the fact that Santana's start to the 2017 campaign had been ridiculously good. In his starts the Twins righty had avoided hard contact (25.9% and a 13.2% LD rate) and Colorado had not been nearly as offensive on the road ranking 23rd in all of baseball in the OPS department away from Coors Field.
However, what goes up must come down, and this includes 35-plus year old pitchers that were well above their career averages in every important category. Santana had been spot-on with his command in the first month and a half of the campaign but that has escaped him over the last few starts. In his loss to the Rockies it was obvious that Santana didn't have his best command. Santana fell behind four of the five batters he faced in the opening frame and it was his demise, light's out, easy pickings for the Colorado lineup.
Santana allowed five runs on six hits and four walks over seven innings in a 5-1 loss in the first game of a that doubleheader at Target Field. It was just the third time over his past 27 starts that Santana allowed at least five runs, causing his season ERA to go from 1.50 to 2.07. At issue was falling behind hitters, as he threw first-pitch strikes to only 10 of the batters he faced.
Santana's career has been easily tracked. His success and his failures are all dependent on his command. Over his career opposing batters have hit .259/.365/.447 when he falls behind, 1-0, AND just .229/.273/.352 when he gets ahead, 1-0, in the count. Most teams known and understand how to defeat Santana and Baltimore's skipper is one of those individuals. Santana is a porous 4-5 with a 4.87 ERA in 15 career starts against Baltimore and has allowed three homers to Chris Davis.
Baltimore starter Dylan Bundy who had gone at least six innings in each of his first eight starts and hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any of them, exited his last start after allowing a career-high six runs on eight hits over six innings against a capable and dangerous Detroit Tigers batting order.
Bundy, who pitched one inning of scoreless relief in his lone career appearance against Minnesota, is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four home starts this season and has a big advantage the first two to three times though the Twins lineup tonight... because he is a relative unknown to the Minnesota player personnel.
Jack Brayman
My free pick for today is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Francisco Giants, and I'm playing the defending champs on the Run Line.
The Cubs took it on the chin last night, and will be out for revenge. And we should see a decent performance from Jon Lester, who's given up three or fewer earned runs in all 21 of his starts at Wrigley Field, since Sept. 25, 2015.
The left-hander is coming off six-plus innings against the Reds in which he was charged with three runs. He'll be at the top of his game with this start tonight.
The Giants hand the ball to Cueto, who is 9-8 with a 3.24 ERA in 24 career starts versus the Cubs, and 5-5 with a 3.07 ERA in 15 starts at Wrigley Field. I like Cueto, as a matter of fact, but he will be touched up by a pissed-off lineup tonight.
4* CUBS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Tuesday comp play release is Kansas City and New York to land Under the total.
Tonight Danny Duffy and Jordan Montgomery match pitches for the second time in less than a week, and if the first go'round last week in Kansas City is any kind of indicator, then the runs will be hard to come by.
Duffy held New York to just one run, while Kansas City did get 5 total runs off of Yankees pitching, but the game did hold Under the total.
Last night's game saw a combined total of just 6 runs cross, as 3 of the 4 season series meetings this year between the teams have held Under the total.
Each of Duffy's last 3 starts have held Under the total, and the Under is 6-2-1 for the season when he starts.
The Under has been the right side in 2 of Montgomery's last 3 starts, so let's look for Montgomery and Duffy to engage in a pitcher's duel, and for the Royals and Yankees to once again land Under the total here on Tuesday night in the Bronx.
3* KANSAS CITY-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free winner is the Texas Rangers plus a huge number in Boston, against the Red Sox. I started off thinking there was a decent pitching mismatch, but the biggest reason now is the price. That number is far too big considering the pitching matchup.
Texas' Andrew Cashner is pitching against the Red Sox for the first time in his career, which also means his first time in Fenway Park. He'll be stoked to take the mound, and will continue to pitch well.
The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts after a 9-3 win over the Phillies on Wednesday. And while I know he is 0-2 with a 3.12 ERA in three starts on the road, this is a great spot for him.
As for Rick Porcello, we need to list him too, so we get the price. But make note the reigning American League Cy Young winner has yet to find his dominant form of 2016. In his last start, the Cardinals tagged the right-hander for four runs on nine hits and three walks.
List both, take the Rangers.
3* RANGERS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Tuesday is the Cincinnati Reds over the Cleveland Indians, and I want you listing ONLY Amir Garrett.
The youngster from Las Vegas, who once played basketball for Findlay Prep and was St. Johns University, is back after a quick stint in the minors.
He looked weak last Thursday versus the Cubs, allowing six earned runs, five hits and four walks over four innings. But he also identified the issue, as his fastball missed low often, while his offspeed was left hanging one too many times.
He'll improve tonight and get past the Tribe, as he needs to prove himself all over again.
1* REDS
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play comes in the NHL on the Over in the Penguins-Senators game.
After a pair of closely contested lower-scoring games to open this series in Pittsburgh, things have started to get offensive in this series, as we saw 6 combined goals in Game Three, and 5 combined in Game Four - both games on Ottawa's ice.
The last contest on Sunday was a blitzkrieg, as the Penguins netted 7 goals in their 7-0 shutout win!
I will look for the offense to continue to find the back of the net, and for the Pens and the Sens to light the lamp at least 6 times tonight as Game Six lands just Over the total in this best-of-seven series.
2* PITTSBURGH-OTTAWA OVER
Bob Balfe
Yankees -140
The Royals can’t hit left handed pitching so although this spread is a little high I do like the Yankees to take care of business at home. Fading teams that have trouble scoring runs are always safe bets. The Yankees have been crushing the ball at home and should get the win tonight.