Ken Lowden
Boston vs. Cleveland
Play: Boston +15.5
As always, my free selections are not rated as high as my premium selections. I would recommend risking 5% bankroll on this selection, as the Celtics are coming off of a win against the Cavaliers and have done so in the Cavaliers building. Getting 15.5 points is a lot, considering they just beat Cleveland. Take the Points and the Boston Celtics for free this Tuesday night.
Larry Wallace
Twins vs. Orioles
Play: Twins +115
I like the Twins in this match-up against Baltimore. Santana on the road this year is 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA. Overall this year Santana is 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA. Bundy in his last 3 starts is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA. The Twins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.
Teddy Davis
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -1½
The D Backs are worth a look here on the RL tonight. The D Backs are 19-8 @ home this season and have won 6 of their last 7 games.
Covey for the White Sox gives up run after run as he has gave up 13 earned runs in 14 innings. He has only made one quality start his last three starts. Corbin is 3-1 @ home with a 3.06 ERA
Pro Computer Gambler
Tigers vs. Astros
Play: Under 9
ACTIVE PROCOMPUTERGAMBLER SDQL SPORTS BETTING SYSTEM: The Under is 1165-897-94 +160.65 units when two AL teams play and the home team is off a game with 2 or fewer runs scored by team + previous opponent and favorited or a small dog. -- Active to Take the Under in Houston!
Jack Jones
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -1½
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 23-8 in their last 31 home games. They are hitting .295 and scoring 6.0 runs per game at home this season. I expect their bats to stay red hot against the Chicago White Sox tonight to cover the run line.
After all, the White Sox are sending their worst starter to the mound in Dylan Covey, who is 0-3 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.783 WHIP in seven starts this season. Covey is 0-3 with an 8.33 ERA and 1.8952 WHIP in five road starts as well.
Pat Corbin has been great at home this season, going 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA in six starts. The Diamondbacks have gone 5-1 in his six home starts, winning each of the last five times. The White Sox are 0-6 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
Mark Franco
Twins vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9
Ervin Santana has been an early-season surprise, and the 34-year-old looks to produce another strong outing when the Minnesota Twins visit the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday for the middle contest of their three-game series. Santana has been stunningly good as he is limiting opposing hitters to a .144 average - the best mark in the majors.
Santana has allowed just two runs and 14 hits over 42 innings in his six victories, and his next win will match his total of each of the past two seasons.
Bundy was torched by Detroit in his last turn as he gave up six runs and eight hits over six innings. The 24-year-old won his previous four decisions, allowing only five runs during the stretch. Bundy, who pitched one inning of scoreless relief in his lone career appearance against Minnesota, is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four home starts this season.
Under is 8-1 in Santanas last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Under is 9-3 in Bundys last 12 home starts. Under is 5-0 in Gibsons last 5 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.
Dave Price
Angels vs. Rays
Play: Rays -110
Great price here on the Tampa Bay Rays at basically even money at home against the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have been one of the most lucky teams in baseball as they have an MLB-high 11 wins by one run, and no other team has double-digits in this category. The Rays are +20 in run differential, while the Angels are -6. Alex Cobb is back healthy this season and pitching well, going 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 9 starts, and 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 3 home starts. Matt Shoemaker is 3-2 with a 4.47 ERA in 9 starts for the Angels.
Andre Ramirez
Marlins vs. A's
Play: Under 9
The Marlins may well be the worst team in baseball at the moment and they are trotting out a pitcher who has yet to win this year. I like the A’s in an easy one, as I think they get to Volquez early. The Marlins are also 1-8 over their last nine Wednesday games. The value in this game is in the under. Two great pitchers on the mound today. I have the A's winning 4-2.
RJ Robbins
Colorado vs. Philadelphia
Play: Colorado -133
These two teams are heading in opposite directions. Colorado has won 4 of its last 5 games while Philadelphia has lost 4 of its last 5. With German Marquez on the mound the Rockies are 2-2, however Marquez is 2-0 in his last 2 starts and has given up 1 run in 13 innings pitched. The Phillies are 0-4 with Zac Eflin on the mound.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh -104 over ATLANTA
The Pirates are without question one of the most frustrating teams to get behind because they fail to execute the simplest and most basic strategies of the game. They always seem to leave a bunch of runs on the table. That said, the Pirates have a significant pitching matchup advantage here but the surface stats do not reveal that so allow us to.
R.A. Dickey needs no introductions. Everybody who follows baseball knows exactly who he is and what he is. There is no analyzing a knuckleballer. That pitch is either dancing or it’s not but for R.A. Dickey, things are not looking up. Age is clearly taking a toll on Dickey, who struggled to a 4.46/4.75 ERA/xERA and 1.37 WHIP in 170 innings for the Blue Jays last year, his worst MLB season since 2009. He was more HR-prone than ever. Dickey's ability to eat innings produced 10 wins and 126 Ks, but the trade-offs weren't worth it. His 3-3 record this year with a 4.13 ERA may seem like his descent has slowed and being back in the NL has helped that but nothing could be further from the truth. Among the warning signs is a control decline in which Dickey has a BB/K split of 21/26 in 48 frames. His xERA of 6.01 and swing and miss rate of 6% are both horrible. Issues with HR’s (10 jacks allowed in 48 IP) are another troublesome sign among many others. Throw in a crumbling strikeout rate too. R.A Dickey is 42-years-old. Even knuckleballers reach the end of the line and this one cannot be evenly priced or favored against any starter on the Pirates.
We are absolutely thrilled that after eight starts, Tyler Glasnow brings a 7.34 ERA into this start because we get the Pirates at a greatly reduced price because of it. If he was as bad as that ERA suggests, he would be back in the minors but the Pirates and pitching coach, Ray Searage, know they have something good here. The 23-year-old Glasnow is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. His long-term potential is outstanding. As we've seen with plenty of other top prospects, it can take time and many ups and downs to find one's footing in the majors but this kid is working with the best pitching coach in the game and that matters. The problem here is control. Glasnow has walked 24 batters in 37 innings and is too often behind in the count. However, he also has 37 K’s which translates to 9.7 K’s/9. In his last start, Glasnow’s 73% first-pitch strike rate led to five innings of three-hit ball against the Nationals. That’s a start. Two starts ago, Glasnow faced the Brewers and walked just two batters in six innings so things are trending in the right direction for him. His numbers across the board look horrible on paper because he’s had some terrible outings due to issuing too many free passes. That’s where we step in and analyze the under-the-hood numbers to find some hidden gems. Tyler Glasnow is a risk to be sure. He could walk five batters in two innings and not see the third inning. However, he also has filthy stuff that could lead to a wickedly strong start at any time and against R.A. Dickey, we’re willing to take that risk.
BOSTON -1½ +105 over Texas
Rick Porcello doesn't look like an upper-rotation starter after two months, at least on the surface (4.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) but his skills are outstanding and getting better. Porcello has 58 K’s in 55 innings with just 12 walks issued. His first-pitch strike rate is so good that it’s not even worth mentioning. Let’s just say that Porcello can throw a strike whenever the f**k he wants. His swing and miss rate is well above average at 12% and his xERA of 3.14 is better than his Cy Young year. Porcello has been hurt by an unlucky 42% hit rate and once that normalizes, his ERA will drop. Porcello is worth getting behind but this one is more about our continuous fade against Andrew Cashner.
What the general public is going to see is Andrew Cashner’s 2.45 ERA and an enticing price (in the +165 range) on the Rangers and think it’s a steal but it’s not. Cashner’s xERA of 6.28 points to his hideous skills. He has had immense hit % and strand % luck but just look at his skills…..just LOOK AT IT. He throws few first-pitch strikes, which contributes to plenty of walks. Cashner also generates very few swinging strikes, contributing to few strikeouts. With 21 walks and just 19 K’s in 40 innings, disasters are screaming out. To make matters worse, his velocity (92 mph) doesn’t reach 2012-15 levels (94-97 mph). He’s compensating by throwing fewer fastballs (57% vs 65-71% from 2013-2016) and more changeups (18%, 6.5%). This skillset should be avoided. With so many balls in play, with so many walks and with so much traffic, Cashner’s ERA will shoot up when his luck runs out. This will likely get ugly fast so run, don’t walk away from Cashner.
Miami +123 over OAKLAND
Jose Urena is an unsolved mystery. Here’s a guy that has never had success at this level over 57 career appearances since 2015 with 24 of those 57 appearances being starts. Urena’s career ERA is 5.05 and his career xERA is 4.92. The 6'3", 195-pound, right-handed Urena is just 25 years-old and has two plus pitches in his 97-mph fastball and a solid changeup. He has been working on developing his breaking ball and it shows potential but that’s the main problem here. Two pitch-pitchers rarely have success at this level. If that third pitch is working and Urena isn’t afraid to throw it, things may happen for him quickly. Urena shows excellent control and has never had excessive home run rates so at this park against the A’s, a strong outing could be in the cards but we’re more interested in backing an undervalued Miami team than we are any of their starters.
The Marlins are loaded with talent but come in with a 15-28 record, which is the worst record in baseball. How can that be? There’s boundless upside in the outfield with the trio of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Glencarlo Stanton. There’s speed at the top of the order with Dee Gordon. Justin Bour and Stanton in the middle of that lineup are as good as any one-two punch in the game. Bour has 11 jacks already and so does Stanton. On the road, both are hitting in the .280 range. The Fish are much better than a 15-win team and this is a great place for them to get off the mattress.
Jesse Hahn’s 3.02 ERA after seven starts and one relief appearance over 48 innings is going to draw some attention here, especially against the bottom feeding Marlins but we’re not buyers. Hahn has never had this type of success over an extended period of time and we’re also seeing a steep drop in his command. Hahn’s 52% first-pitch strike rate over his last three starts is down from 57% over his first four. This is a starter that went 2-4 with a 6.02 ERA in 46 innings last year. His xERA this year is 4.55. He chose not to have a second TJS after forearm and elbow pain in 2015, but looking at these skills, one can't help but wonder if that was a mistake. And if that's not the explanation, then his declining command and rising xERA are even more alarming. Either way, the best bet is to sell his stock immediately, which is precisely what we’re doing here.
Colorado -1½ +128 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies dropped the opener of this series last night, 8-1 and have now lost seven of their past eight games. The Phillies OPS of .268 over its last 10 games is by far the worst in MLB and there are no signs of them breaking out of it anytime soon. Philadelphia has scored one run in its last two games and now has to play one of the hottest teams in the majors again.
Zack Eflin is 0-1 after six starts with an ERA/xERA split of 4.25/4.62 after 36 innings. Last year, Eflin threw 63 innings as a starter and went 3-5 with an ERA/xERA split of 5.54/5.42 so there are improvements. However, Eflin doesn't get enough groundballs or miss enough bats (7% swing and miss rate, 8% in minor league career). Eflin was also diagnosed in August with a stress fracture in right foot and patellar tendinopathy in both knees so he missed the last 10 weeks of the season last year. Eflin’s greatest asset is his control (BB/K split of 6/18) but that’s not such a great thing for a starter that doesn’t strike out many batters. When a strong hitting team knows a pitcher is going to be around the plate, they go up there ready to swing. After three starts this year, Eflin had a 1.89 ERA but three starts later and his ERA is 4.25. That gives one an idea of what happens when MLB batters learn a pitcher’s tendencies. Eflin's ability to limit the walks is impressive, particularly with such little experience but the complete lack of dominance is an indicator he's not going to have a great deal of success in the short-term. Until he shows he can generate more whiffs, Eflin is a risky investment and is always at the mercy of batting average against on batted balls in play.
German Marquez is only five starts into his second season. Last year he appeared in six games with three of those coming as a starter. Signed by the Rays in 2011 out of Venezuela, Marquez was the prime player the Rockies received after the 2015 season when they traded Corey Dickerson to Tampa Bay. Marquez repaid the Rockies' confidence with a breakout 2016. He made the jump from Double-A Hartford to Triple-A Albuquerque to the big leagues in 2016, beating the Cardinals with five quality innings to win his first start. Marquez has plus velocity and it comes effortlessly at a consistent 94-96 mph and touches 98. The ball comes out of his hand with velocity and never fades. Marquez's solid three-pitch assortment includes a curveball that flashes plus and has good spin. His 2016 focus was to tighten it up, which he did. His changeup still needs work but it has good velocity differential from his fastball. He has shown an ability to pitch inside and use his changeup even when behind in the count. Most impressively, he reduced his walk rate in 2016 by more than a half walk per nine innings. This year, Marquez has 24 K’s in 29 innings. His consistently strong groundball rate has been his best skill thus far in the majors and that's a good tool for a Rockies pitcher to have in his toolbox. While Marquez is likely to have a few blowups, he’s pitching aggressively and with a lot of confidence right now and the Rocks are also playing with a ton of confidence.
Zack Cimini
Toronto vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Brewers pitcher Jimmy Nelson won in his last start against the Padres after not registering a win since April 13th. Replicating that effort will be a challenge opposed the Blue Jays hard-hitting lineup and not the Padres. Still, the Blue Jays utilizing relief pitcher Joe Biagini as a starter is not a recipe for success on the road. Grab the Brewers.
Drew Martin
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Play: 1st 5 Under 4.5
The battle for Ohio features one of the biggest over teams in MLB with the Cincinnati Reds (26-16-2 O/U) hosting the under-prone Cleveland Indians (15-23-3 O/U). I advise leaving the bullpens out of the equation this evening and focus in on the starting pitching matchup.
Carlos Carrasco, the 30-year-old Venezuelan flame thrower, has put together an All-Star caliber year with a 2.60 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. His last outing was his worst to date as he allowed five earned runs. It was also his lowest pitch count of the season and he struck out six and gave up only two line drives and four fly balls. Facing the Reds' lineup for the first time this year, he's poised for a strong start.
Opposing Carrasco is the young lefty Amir Garrett who is also coming off a down start. The 6-5 rookie faces an Indians lineup that has really struggled against lefties this year (82 WRc). Garrett has also shown to be comfortable at home with 18 strikeouts and only six earned runs over three starts.
Temps are expected to mild with wind not a factor. Couple that with Cleveland losing a bat due to the NL venue and two starting pitchers with a
Bryan Leonard
Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics
Play: Miami Marlins +112
Much prefer Jose Arena here than Jesse Hahn of the A's who we have graded at 31% worse than an average Major League pitcher. On a poor defensive squad like the A's which are 22% worse than league average. Miami has adges of 12%, 9% and 15% edges offensively from overall, home/away and lefty/righty numbers. We know the AL has dominated Interleague play, but we want no part of the Athletics here.
The Prez
Detroit at Houston
Play: Over 8.5
Detroit and Houston (-220, 8.5) square off on Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park in a game that should be contrary to Monday night's 1-0 victory by the Astros. The game is scheduled to start at 8:10 p.m. with the Tigers sending Jordan Zimmermann (4-2, 6.25 ERA) to the mound to oppose Astros Lance McCullers (4-1, 2.65).
The Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has been at his best in May. McCullers has the longest active scoreless inning streak in the American League at 17 innings, and hasn't allowed an earned run in three consecutive road starts. However, in this baseball fan's opinion he doesn't miss enough bats to be considered with the MLB pitching elite. He has pitched far above his career averages in ground ball percentage while striking out nearly a batter per innings. Part of his 2017 success has come via opposing offenses that are not going to put up crooked numbers at a high rate or where slumping when McCullers faced them. The average wRC+ versus right-handed pitching that the Houston right-hander has faced this year is just under 80. The Astros right-hander's most dominating performance so far this year was against a 71 wRC+ versus righties when he faced a Kansas City Royals lineup that had a .205 batting average against and a .279 on-base-percentage.
Zimmermann is off a victory against Baltimore in which he when surrendered four runs and seven hits over six innings. The former Washington National right-hander has not been competitive since arriving in Detroit and the first two months of the 2017 campaign is resembling his 2016 season. Zimmerman has allowed four or more runs in six of his first eight starts and tonight's turn comes in the smallish confines of Minute Maid.
Unlike last night's game that saw both starting pitchers and a duo of Houston relievers shut down the opposing lineups tonight's game will see a large number of walks and runs scored.
Mike Rose
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +105
Since getting swept in LA, Pittsburgh split with the D’backs in the desert and then followed it up with series wins at home against Washington and Philadelphia before dropping the series opener to Atlanta with their ace on the bump. The Braves are no doubt playing some pretty solid ball right now having won seven of nine, but I question the move to pitch Dickey on such short rest. They’ll be lucky to get five innings from him tonight, and that will do them no favors after being forced to burn the pen up due to another short outing from Folty. While Glasnow has had his issues, he’s the one with the live arm in this contest, and Atlanta’s down three units against righties overall. They’ve also had issues with Ks against RHP. The Buccos already got to Dickey once this season, and have been a +$$ investment when matched up against righties overall. With that, I give the Pirates an excellent shot of evening this series up and improving their ghastly road record in the process.