JOHN MARTIN
St. John's vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -10½
The Marquette Golden Eagles need to keep winning if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They did a good job of that over the weekend in trouncing Xavier 83-61 as 6-point favorites. Now I think they'll post another blowout home victory over St. John's here Tuesday. The Red Storm lost 86-110 at Butler last time out and have lost five of their last six road games all by double-digits. I don't give them much of a chance of hanging with Marquette here tonight either.
BLACK WIDOW
NC State vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -3
Bets against road teams (NC State) an explosive offensive team scoring at least 78 points per game against an average offensive team scoring 67-74 PPG, after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at halftime are 31-8 ATS since 1997. This situation's record is 4-1 this season alone. NC State is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall and has little to play for at this point unlike Georgia Tech, which is seeking to make the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets have covered six straight home games.
DAVE PRICE
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1½
The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are on the verge of making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in the program's history. They need wins like this one at Illinois to get there. They certainly won't be lacking any motivation as they just lost at home to Illinois 61-68 on February 7th two weeks ago. But now the Wildcats have a healthy Scottie Lindsey back in the lineup after he missed four games due to injury, including that Illinois game. Lindsey leads the team in scoring at 15.0 points per game, so it's no surprise they went just 1-3 without him. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Illinois is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders -105 over DETROIT
OT included. This is an almost identical play to a couple of other plays we made (and won) on Sunday when Chicago defeated Buffalo, 5-1 and Nashville defeated Columbus. The Sabres were coming off three wins in a row, which was capped off by a big win over the then red-hot Blues on Saturday afternoon. Buffalo’s game against Chicago was sandwiched between that aforementioned big win over the Blues and its bye week. The Jackets’ game against Nashville was sandwiched between their big win over Pittsburgh on Friday and their bye week, which started on Monday. Now Detroit finds itself in the exact same scenario.
Detroit is coming off a huge weekend in which they defeated both Washington and Pittsburgh in back-to-back nationally televised games. The Red Wings were taking back +160 against the Capitals and +239 in Pittsburgh so they were not expected to win either one, let alone both. The Red Wings will now play this game basking in their glory with a their bye week on deck starting tomorrow. This really sets up as a difficult spot for the Red Wings, especially considering that they’re one of the easier teams in the NHL to beat. We also love that these two have played twice already this year with Detroit winning both times by a single goal. In a very difficult scheduling spot, the Red Wings are now being asked to defeat the superior team three times in a row in the same season and that is not likely going to happen. If you decide to make just one bet today, this should be it.
Chicago +146 over MINNESOTA
OT included. While we take nothing away from what the Wild have accomplished this year under Bruce Boudreau, they are not as good as their record indicates so they may be worth fading down the stretch in some spots or in the playoffs because they are very unlikely to maintain their dominance. Truth be told, the Wild have not dominated anything other than the scoreboard. They do not dominate puck possession and they create an average number of scoring chances but they’ve been able to score on a high number of them while allowing few. Minnesota’s goal differential is a ridiculous +62 so they have ridden the hot hand of goaltender Devan Dubnyk to an outstanding regular season record and their stock is soaring because of it.
There is a metric called Adjusted Corsi For %, which, unlike Corsi For % takes into consideration situations. For instance, was the team up three goals and protecting the lead or were they down a goal or two heading to the third period? All shots that are directed towards the net are not created equal and Adjusted Corsi For % takes all of that into consideration. In Corsi for (adjusted score) the Wild are ranked 19th in the league which puts them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Jets and Senators. There are a slew of stats and numbers one can go over in any sport to find cracks in but the point is that the Wild are NOT dominating games. They are just getting luckier in those 50/50 tossup games that most teams play .500 in.
Chicago taking back a price like this is almost always worth looking at. The Blackhawks are a team that every other team in the West wants to desperately avoid playing in Round 1. The Blackhawks have won six straight games away from the United Center. They've scored the game's first goal in four of those wins, and in the other two, overcame 1-0 deficits to beat Dallas 5-3 and Edmonton 5-1. Jonathan Toews is playing like an All-Star again and so are several other players. This isn’t the Blackhawks first rodeo. They’ve been through this regular season grind before and won three Stanley Cups in the process. From Coach Joel Quenneville to Patrick Kane, to Duncan Keith, to Marion Hossa and Keith Seabrook to goaltender Corey Crawford, this is a team that is quite aware of when the right time to peak is. Chicago appears to be shifting into gear and now would be the perfect opportunity for them to send these West rivals a little reminder of who they have to go through to reach the Promised Land. Chicago is too good to refuse a price like this in a big game like this.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kent St +7 over BUFFALO
With a 9-5 conference record, the Buffalo Bulls are a near lock to finish as a top four team in the Mid-Atlantic Conference. That's important because the MAC is a one-bid league, so only one team is guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The top four seeds in the conference tournament get a first round bye. A team only has to win three games instead of four to make the main event so it's a much easier road to the MAC title and the at-large bid. The Bulls have played their way into the top four on the backs of a six-game winning streak. It's been an impressive run, but there's not a lot of work left for them in the regular season, aside from a home date with first place Akron on Saturday. That’s a big game for Buffalo and at the very least, it has to be in the back of their minds or take away some focus from this game. With seven straight wins over Kent State, it might be easy for the Bulls to overlook the Golden Flashes in this spot tonight and that would be a big mistake.
Kent State got a big signature win over the MAC's number one team in Akron last Friday night. That win by K-State snapped the Zips 30-game home winning streak. The Golden Flashes are 7-7 in MAC play and are a game back of Ball State for the final first round bye. When these two teams played in Kent just over a month ago, the Golden Flashes lost by double digits as a three-point home favorite. Now, K-State is getting 7-points on the road against the hottest team in the conference but that 10-point swing in the number is what stands out. Every year there are some surprises in the conference tournaments. Last year for instance, it was Holy Cross that took a below average regular season and turned it into an at-large bid by winning the conference tournament. Kent State is one of those dangerous teams that can do the same. They are a rebounding machine (top-5 in the entire country), which means second chance points are available and that makes them dangerous. Remember, the odds makers gave this visitor a ton of respect when they made them a 3-point choice over the Bulls a month ago. The Flashes are also peaking at the right time and they’ll take a ton of momentum and confidence into this game against what could possibly be a disinterested host. Upset alert is on.
Zack Cimini
Akron vs. Bowling Green
Pick: Akron
Out in the MAC, there is value to be had on Akron. Their favored number is right at the points margin in which they defeated Bowling Green at home. While Bowling Green likely will be motivated again here, I don't expect them to be able to score at the same pace as game one. Grab Akron to re-stabilize as they enter tonight's game coming off their second loss in five games.
Rob Veno
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1.5
Second meeting of this in-state battle between Northwestern and Illinois. In the previous contest, two weeks ago in Evanston, the Illini walked out with a 68-61 victory so expect the NU group to be revenge-minded tonight. The Wildcats were minus star guard Scottie Lindsey in the initial matchup but he returned to the starting lineup Saturday and played 24 minutes. With Lindsay back, not only does Northwestern have the leading scorer (15.0 ppg) on the floor tonight but his presence also boosts their defense significantly. Lindsay combined with Vic Law gives NU arguably the best set of wing defenders in the Big Ten which should make life a bit tougher on the Fighting Illini’s perimeter shooting this time around.
Northwestern kept Illinois interior threat Maverick Morgan pretty quiet in the initial meeting holding him to 5-of-12 shooting and only two free throw attempts but the Illini nailed 42% (8-of-21) from three-point land. Have to believe Lindsay’s presence will help quiet the Illinois guards and wing players who accounted for 56 points last time.
While the defense should be in better position to allow a more season like FG% (Northwestern allows just 39.5% from the field this year), the offense is likely to benefit as well with a third scoring threat on the floor. Game #1 saw Vic Law and Brian McIntosh forced to carry the burden but Lindsay will loosen things up since he’ll demand defensive attention as well. Saturday’s home scare versus Rutgers which ended in a Northwestern 69-65 late come from behind win, probably worked out the kinks of reintegrating Lindsay so look for the offense to be more fluid tonight.
We’re at that stage of the season where teams that are unsure of the NCAA Tournament status must win their winnable games. This is one of those for Chris Collins’ crew which is staring right down the barrel of a three game regular season finish that includes at Indiana plus home vs. Michigan and Purdue. Winning this one is ultra-important for the ‘Cats and the situation suggests they’ll be focused. That plus the return of Lindsay is enough to lay the short favorite price.
Alex Smith
New York vs. Detroit
Play: New York -110
Two Eastern Conference clubs heading in different directions as Detroit hosts the New York Islanders. These two clubs met in Motown back on February 3 with the Wings picking up the 5-4 victory and giving Islanders interim head coach Doug Weight his first regulation loss since taking over the job. Since that contest, the Isles have gone 5-3-1 overall, including a 3-1-1 run as favorites, while Detroit is 3-5-1 in its last nine games and have lost seven of their last nine at Joe Louis Arena. In addition, this time around, the Red Wings are missing scoring winger Gustav Nyquist, who is still serving his six-game suspension for a high stick. The 27-year-old Swedish native picked up an assist in 18 minutes of playing time last meeting. And defensemen Mike Green and Johnathan Ericsson, who both log in solid minutes on the blue-line, are now out with injuries; the latter, Ericsson, is done for the year with a broken wrist. New York is still very much alive in the Wild Card race in the Eastern Conference while the Red Wings will miss the postseason for the first time in a quarter-century as they will most likely finish the season as the worst team in the Eastern Conference. Good price to step in with the road squad.
Harry Bondi
MARQUETTE -9.5 over St. Johns
Revenge! The worst conference loss Marquette suffered this season was on February 1st when St Johns pounded them 86-72. Red Storm had it’s best shooting night of the year knocking down 48% of their shots while the Golden Knights were a chilly 35% from the floor. Marquette normally shoots 47% from the field which is 29th best in the nation. Marquette has been solid at home and is coming off a a 20 point thrashing of Xavier at home Saturday 83-61 and do the same to St Johns tonight.
Stephen Nover
Edmonton +105
Edmonton has won three in a row. The Oilers' defense could get a boost, too, with the possible return of defenseman Kris Russell.
Tampa Bay hasn't played at home in two weeks. The Lightning just edged Colorado in overtime on the road two days ago. Now the Lightning have to adjust to being at home and getting out of Denver's high altitude.
The Lightning are 1-8 following a victory and 1-6 on one day's rest. This marks their third game in four days. Tampa Bay is 14-10-1-1 at home. Edmonton, though, owns one of the best road marks at 17-9-3-2.
Bruce Marshall
Mississippi St -1.5
The payback angle is quite often overrated, but maybe not so in blood battles between state rivals. So, it might be advantage for payback-minded MSU, especially with the home edge has meaning a lot in recent cage "Egg Bowls" after the host won both meetings last season and Ole Miss romped 88-61 at Oxford on Jan. 31. That score was a bit deceiving, as MSU was rallying in the 2nd half before star frosh G Lamar Peters (scored 16 in 24 minutes of action) had to leave midway in the second stanza with a hip pointer, with Ben Howland's bunch outscored 24-7 down stretch. Revenge thus worth a look, especially with MSU needing a few more quality wins to get on the postseason radar (an NIT berth a realistic goal with a fast finish).