Matt Josephs
Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -12
Baylor comes home with a two game losing streak as they host Oklahoma. The Bears won 76-50 on the road back on December 30th in a game where they held the Sooners to just 32.7% shooting from the field. Jordan Woodard didn't play in that one and won't play in this one. The Sooners have lost eight of their last nine games with three of those being by double digits. I think Baylor gets out a lot of aggression in this one and wins easily. Focus would be an issue if they weren't coming in off a losing streak.
Power Sports
Purdue vs. Penn St.
Pick: Penn St
Purdue has emerged as the team to beat in the Big 10 this year. But the Boilermakers sure do look a little overvalued for tonight's road tilt w/ Penn State. Especially considering they were asked to lay only 12 points to the Nittany Lions earlier in the season in West Lafayette. Admittedly, they won that game by 25 points, but as we've seen, it's much tougher to win on the road in College Basketball. I recommend grabbing the points in this one (and the number seems to be dropping!).
It wasn't too long ago that Penn State upset Maryland right here in State College. They followed that by upsetting Illinois (on the road!) as well. Their most recent game ended up being a 16-point loss at Nebraska, but that was a week ago. So they are better rested for tonight's matchup than their opponent, who hosted Michigan State over the weekend. The Nittany Lions are 30-15 SU their L45 home games and this being their first in two weeks should have the faithful fired up. It's not an exaggeration to call this PSU's biggest home game of the year.
I expect the shooting percentages to be a lot more even tonight than they were in the first meeting. Last month in West Lafayette, Purdue shot a blistering 56% from the field compared to 31.2% for Penn State. That's despite relatively even three-point shooting numbers! Penn State was actually only 12 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is borderline unfathomable. Admittedly, they aren't a great shooting team to begin with, but they also play much better defense at home. Look for the home dog to keep this one close.
Larry Ness
Mississippi vs. Mississippi St.
Pick: Mississippi St.
Ole Miss is 16-11 overall (7-7 in SEC play) as it travels to Starkville to take on in-state rival Mississippi St. The Bulldogs are just 14-12, including 5-9 in league play and have little to play for here other than there is always something special about beating a bitter rival. As a bonus, a win over Ole Miss would deal a major blow to the visiting Rebels' at-large NCAA hopes.
Ole Miss is 4-2 in its last six games and needs a strong finish to keep flickering hopes alive for a spot in the Big Dance. The Rebels have scored 80-plus points in five of their last six and average 78.1 PPG on the season. Guards Burnett (16.9) and Davis (14.7 & 5.5) are joined in double figures by the 6-9 Saiz (15.0 & 11.0), who has produced 17 double-doubles on the season plus leads the SEC in rebounding. However, 80 points wasn't good enough to win the last time out, as the Rebels allowed Arkansas to score 98 points. I'm not even a little bit sold on Ole Miss, as the team allows almost as many points as it scores (76.4 PPG, which ranks 274th in the nation).
The Bulldogs had a promising start to the season, opening 12-5, including 3-1 in SEC play. However, they have now lost four straight games and eight of their last 10 (1-8 in SEC play!). Sophomore guard Weatherspoon (16.7 & 5.0) is the team's best player and is joined in double figures by two freshman. Guard Peters averages 11.8 PPG and 3.5 APG plus the 6-7 Kegler adds 10.2 PPG and 5.5 RPG. The 6-10 Holman (8.6 & 6.2) and guard Ready (8.1) are also solid contributors.
Miss St was hardly at its best when these teams met in Oxford back on Jan 31, as Ole Miss gave up its fewest points in an SEC game this season plus forced 19 turnovers in an 88-61 victory. However, Mississippi State head coach Ben Howland has shown his coaching chops in previous stops at Pittsburgh and UCLA. The Rebels can easily be 'had' away from home and I'm taking the home team in this rivalry game.
Brandon Shively
South Carolina vs. Florida
Pick: South Carolina
Florida is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have been dominant in the SEC. The oddsmaker has been forced to raise the lines on the Gators and tonight’s number is a bit too high facing a tough defensive minded team of South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are coming off 2 losses for the first time this season and I look for coach Frank Martin to have his team of upperclassmen ready to play. Florida and South Carolina rank #1 and #2 in defense in SEC. The Gators do have the more efficient offense over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks defensive play should be able to force Florida into some bad shots.
A week ago, UF lost its starting center — John Egbunu — to a torn ACL. He’s out for the season. It’ll take him 10 to 12 months to recover. That is a big loss for the team and can hurt them in this game. They now don’t have depth at the center position and I expect for their interior defense to regress. Also, their leading scorer Canyon Barry is listed as a game time decision after hurting his ankle and being held out of practice Sunday and Monday.
The last 3 meetings have been decided by 4 points each. Florida has a HUGE game against Kentucky on deck. The Gators are 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge before playing Kentucky. (South Carolina beat Florida earlier this year). South Carolina is 5-0 SU since 1/31/2015 when coming off 2 consecutive losses.
David Banks
South Carolina @ Florida
Pick: Florida -10
The Florida Gators (22-5, 12-2) have been a pleasant surprise in the SEC challenging perennial powerhouse Kentucky for conference supremacy. South Carolina (20-7, 10-4) also looks like a lock for the NCAA tournament and another win over the Gators would add their tourney resume. Florida has won eight games in a row, its longest winning streak since the Gators won 30 straight back in the 2013-14 season. Florida played in the Final Four that season.
For the Gators, it’s all about balance. Head coach Mike White plays ten consistently led by 6-6 guard Canyon Barry who averages 13.4 points per game. Barry, son of legendary Rick Barry, set a Florida record for consecutive free throws shooting them underhanded, just like his father used to do years ago. While he is a very good free throw shooter, he is also very good in the open floor as is KeVaughn Allen who adds 13.2 points per game to a Gators’ offense that averages nearly 80 points per game.
The Gamecocks are led by one of the SEC’s best players, Sindarius Thornwell, a 6-5 senior guard who averages 20.2 points per game. Thornwell and his teammates have not played very well as of late. Last Saturday night’s 71-62 loss to Vanderbilt was the Gamecocks’ third defeat in their last four games. South Carolina beat Florida 57-53 back on Jan. 18 in a game where both teams shot poorly. The Gators did not hit one 3-pointer and had 16 turnovers.
Buster Sports
Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Winnipeg Jets +140
The Winnipeg Jets are visiting the ACC tonight and they are getting some nice plus money that we will gladly take. Winnipeg has owned the Leafs and beat them 5-4 in their only matchup of the season. In the last 9 matchups between the clubs the Jets are 8-1. The Leafs are just getting too much love form the oddsmaker tonight as the Jets have won 3 out of their last 4 games. The Leafs have lost 4 out of their last 6 games and with the dominance that the Jets have on the Leafs getting plus 140 at the time of this writing is just too much plus money to pass up.
Bryan Leonard
South Carolina at Florida
Play: South Carolina +9
Don't look now by the Gamecocks have covered 9 of the last 10 meetings here in Florida. South Carolina also beat Florida straight up the last two years. This team plays excellent defense allowing just 44.5% effective field goals and enters this game off back to back losses for the first time all season.
Florida enters this contest on an eight game winning streak and has Kentucky on deck. We only made this line 5.9 so plenty of value in taking the dog here.
Mike Rose
South Carolina vs. Florida
Play: South Carolina +10
If ever there was a time to buy into the Gamecocks, it’s now. Back-to-back losses to the Arkansas Razorbacks and Vanderbilt Commodores has them receiving 10 points against a Gators team it's already defeated on its own floor. This is still a team that sports the nation’s No. 29 ranked scoring defense as well as one of the best players in the Conference in Thornwell. With this likely their last shot to threaten both Florida and Kentucky for league honors, I expect the Cocks to come out balling on Super Tuesday. With the market place extremely down on Martin’s kids, it's fattened up the pointspread enough for me to consider the Gators inflated favorites.
Marc Lawrence
NC State at Georgia Tech
Play: NC State +5
Edges - Wolfpack: 18-5-1 ATS as a dog in this series (7-0-1 ATS the last eight games), including 13-1 ATS following a loss… Yellow Jackets: 2-6-1 ATS as favorites off a SU underdog win when facing a .400 or greater opponent, including 0-4 ATS against foes off a loss; and 0-2 SUATS following Syracuse. With Georgia Tech 9-0 SU versus sub .400 opponents this season, but just 7-11 SU versus .400 or greater foes.
Wunderdog
Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Pick: Oklahoma +13
It was pretty much a given that after such a successful senior-led season last year, the Oklahoma Sooners were going to crash hard this year as they rebuild the talent, and experience. Not surprising, the Sooners are 9-1, as they head to take on Baylor. The Sooners may not have the won/lost record, but they have been a lot closer to the top of the conference than most think. The fact is that this entire conference is not separated by as much as it has been in the past from top to bottom. Big-12 Conference dogs this season of +8.5 or more are 20-3 ATS, and this Oklahoma team has been at the top of that list at 5-0 ATS.
Oskeim Sports
Davidson at Richmond
Play: Richmond +2
Richmond is in its preferred role as an underdog tonight where the Spiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, including 4-1 ATS when getting 6.5-points or less. Richmond has covered five of its last seven games overall and my math model favors the Spiders by two points so we are getting excellent line value with the live home underdog. I like Richmond (+2) as my free sports pick for Tuesday, February 21.
Davidson possesses an offense that is 2.2 points per game better than average (74.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.8 points per game) and a defense that is 2.7 points per game better than average (70.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.1 points per game).
The Wildcats have lost three of their last five games over which time they are averaging just 68.2 points on 40.2% shooting from the field and 28.4% from beyond the arc. Davidson is averaging 29 three-pointers per game on the road this season, which plays into the strength of Richmond's defense.
The Spiders are limiting opponents to just 30.8% shooting from three-point territory overall and 30.5% on their home floor. Over its last five games, Richmond is holding opposing teams to just 29.3% shooting from beyond the arc. It's extremely unlikely that Davidson will beat the Spiders from beyond the arc in this game.
Richmond is 2.9 points per game better than average offensively and 0.7 points per game better than average defensively, but the Spiders' attack is making 46.4% of their field goal attempts over the last five games and 47.2% in conference play. The Spiders are also better from the free throw line at home (72.0%) and versus conference foes (71.8%).
The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a combined six points, and my math model suggests that the wrong team is favored in tonight's affair.
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on No. 14 Purdue, in its Big 10 battle with Penn State.
This is a mismatch, even it being a road game, as the Boilermakers (22-5, 11-3 in the Big Ten) already rolled Penn State (14-13, 6-8 ) once this season, on Jan. 21, a 77-52 thrashing in West Lafayette, Ind.
Penn State is mired in a 3-6 slide since Jan. 14, and even though it has had a week off since an 82-66 loss last Tuesday at Nebraska, I don't think it'll make a bit of difference against a Purdue team that is poised to win at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season championship for the first time since 2010.
The Boilermakers are 8-1 since a Jan. 12 loss at Iowa, and are currently playing their best basketball of the season. Lay the chalk in this one.
3* PURDUE
Eric Schroeder
On the heels of hitting Creighton over Georgetown on Sunday, and Iowa State over Texas Tech on Monday, my free pick for tonight is on the Wichita State Shockers over the Evansville Purple Aces.
A 10-game win streak during conference play has Wichita State back in the Top 25, after more than a year of not being ranked.
Now it's time to prove they belong and deserve to stay there.
Tonight Wichita State (25-4, 15-1 MVC) plays its final regular-season home game, and the seniors will go out with a bang. Evansville (14-15, 5-11) lost to the Shockers 82-65 a month ago, and I expect nothing different in this one.
Wichita State is limiting opponents to just 62.2 points per game, the 11th-lowest total in the country, so look for that defense to stifle the Aces tonight.
1* WICHITA STATE
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is Georgia Tech over NC State.
Heck, the Little Sisters of the Poor could be playing State tonight, and I would back them!
The Wolf Pack have clearly thrown in the towel, and now it's just a matter of them playing out the string for lame-duck Mark Gottfried.
NC State has lost 7 in a row both straight up and against the spread. They are also 1-8 against the spread their last 9 road games. At 14-14 they are now in danger of not playing in the postseason at all, and it sure looks like the team is fine with that.
That is not the case for Josh Pastner's Yellow Jackets who notched a huge conference win and cover over the weekend when they dumped Syracuse in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech has protected their home court with a passion, as the Jackets have now won 6 straight - covering all 5 on line - at home, and they were also a 10-point road winner over NC State in the middle of January.
The Techsters believe they have a shot at making the Big Dance at-large field, and they know full well they cannot slip up tonight against this team.
Lay the points.
5* GEORGIA TECH
BRANDON LEE
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -1½
The Bulldogs are worth a look at home against the Rebels tonight. This is a big time revenge spot for Mississippi State, who was embarrassed in a 61-88 loss at Ole Miss back on Jan. 31. The change in venue isn't the only reason I think the Bulldogs can knock off the Rebels this time around. That was their first game without point guard I.J. Ready and that's a tough thing to overcome on the road. Since that loss the Bulldogs have gone just 1-4 in their last 5, but have been extremely competitive in all 4 losses, losing by just 7 @ Auburn, 4 at home to South Carolina, 7 @ Georgia and 5 at home against Florida. Ready is back in the lineup and will be playing his 3rd straight after missing the previous 4. Mississippi State is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 off a conference loss, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a road loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last 2 as an underdog.