Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Atlanta Braves, as a big underdog to the Washington Nationals.
Atlanta shocked the Nationals last night, sending them to their third straight defeat. Now, catching a big number, I say why not take a chance here with a live underdog.
I won't list pitchers. After all, why would I care if Washington's Max Scherzer gets scratched? Am I worried? Not in baseball, where anything can happen on any given day.
The Braves showed us resiliency last night by scoring three times in the eighth inning for a 7-4 victory.
Atlanta beat the Nationals for just the fifth time in their past 23 meetings. That, too, could provide a little motivation.
Washington is explosive and dangerous, I get it. But when it is slumping, you take advantage of prices and take a shot.
I'll do so with the Braves.
3* BRAVES
Brad Wilton
Right now it's a good idea to go against Bartolo Colon, as Colon has not worked past the 6th inning in any of his last 4 starts, and has allowed 22 runs, 21 of them earned over his last 19-plus innings. He has also allowed 32 hits in those 19-plus innings, and on a hot day in Atlanta, you can expect the Nationals bats to be banging the ball all over Sun Trust Park.
Washington goes with Max Scherzer who already has bested the Braves once this season in the middle of April in a 3-1 Nats home win.
Scherzer stands at 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA, and without their main cog - Freddy Freeman - in the lineup, I see the already challenged Braves struggling to get much offense going versus Scherzer.
Atlanta beat Washington late last night, but the Nats are still 3-1 in the season series against Atlanta this season, and after last night's loss, I expect them to come back strong today with a 2 runs or better victory.
That being the case, Saturday comp play is the Nationals on the Run Line over the Braves.
3* WASHINGTON -1.5
Jack Brayman
My free pick for tonight is on the Under in the Colorado Rockies clash in Cincinnati against the Reds.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Antonio Senzatela and Tim Adleman. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Adleman was removed from his last outing because of tightness in his neck, but insists he is ready to take the mound for his sixth start of the year.
And with this one being played at Great American Ball Park, I like my chances with this kid pitching a gem for the Reds. The right-hander has been a different pitcher in Cincinnati, going 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA, versus an 0-2 mark with an 11.37 ERA on the road.
He could face stiff competition today, against Senzatela, whose last start might have been a five-inning struggle, but that also resulted in a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This rookie showed resiliency, as his attention to detail in finding his spots and working out of jams helped keep his team ahead without his best stuff. Tonight I expect him to keep the Reds off-balance.
Cincinnati has won five of the past seven meetings with Colorado, but the Rockies won last night. This one will be a battle, led by the starting pitchers.
Play this one low.
1* Rockies-Reds Under
Jeff Benton
Jeff Samardzija has seen better days, the lanky righty enters this Saturday night start in St. Louis sporting a 1-5 season mark with an ERA that stands at 5.26. Somehow though, the Over is just 2-5-1 when he starts for the Giants?!?!
I expect that to change tonight, as St. Louis enters having played Overs in 19 of their last 26 games overall, and starter Carlos Martinez has been an Over pitcher thus far this year.
Martinez has seen 2 of his last 3 starts land Over the total, and the Over is 4-2-2 through 8 starts this year.
The teams opened their series last night with 11 combined runs, as the Giants are now 4-1 over the total in their last 5 games played. Series numbers show 5 of the last 7 meetings landing Over the total.
Let's look for another Over tonight at Busch Stadium.
Giants-Cardinals Over the total.
4* SAN FRANCISCO-ST. LOUIS OVER
JOHN MARTIN
Indians vs. Astros
Play: Over 8½
The Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros both have firepower throughout their lineups. The Astros are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the season and 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starters. The Indians are putting up 5.0 runs per game against right-handers. Mike Clevinger is no more than a spot starter for the Indians and will have his work cut out for him tonight. Mike Fiers has a 5.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Astros. Fiers is 15-2 to the OVER in his last 17 starts as a favorite of -100 to -150.
JACK JONES
Angels vs. Mets
Play: Mets -114
The New York Mets are undervalued right now because of their recent seven-game losing streak. But they put an end to that skid yesterday in a 3-0 victory over the Angels, and I look for them to win again due to their edge on the mound today.
Zack Wheeler has held his own this season, going 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in seven starts. He has been at his best of late, going 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts coming in.
Alex Meyer has been beat up in the early going for the Angels. He is 2-1 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 2.144 WHIP in two road starts.
The Angels are 19-40 in their last 59 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 1-5 in its last six road games. The Mets are 5-0 in their last five interleague games. New York is 6-0 in its last six interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
DAVE PRICE
Colorado at Cincinnati
Play: Colorado +111
At 27-16 on the season and +13.7 units for bettors, the Colorado Rockies have been an underrated commodity thus far. The same theme holds true for today's starter in Antonio Senzatela, who is 6-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 8 starts, and 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 3 road starts. The Rockies have gone 7-1 in his 8 starts this season. The Cincinnati Reds are struggling right now with 7 straight losses coming in. It's hard to see them ending this skid with Tim Adleman on the mound. He has gone 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 5 starts this season. Cincinnati is 2-14 in home games after 5 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Wrong team favored here.
PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
Warriors vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs +9½
Since 2012, teams off of blow out wins of 25 pts or more with a line larger than last game are a trap at 123-146-1 ATS - Fade the WarriorsIn database history, teams averaging 103 or more ppg are 268-205-8 ATS 56.7% after a game where they were behind 15 points or more at the half.
JESSE SCHULE
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -153
The Orioles won Game 1 of this series on a walkoff home run last night, and I like Baltimore in Game 2 tonight.
Mike Bolsinger will toe the slab for the Jays, and he was crushed in his last start. The 29 year old was torched for six runs on eight hits and two walks in 4 2/3 innings in a home loss to Atlanta his last time out. His season debut wasn't great either, he allowed two runs on three hits and four walks in a 6-0 loss to Cleveland.
The Orioles hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, who has struggled when not facing the Blue Jays. While he hasn't had a great start to the season, he's already beat the Jays twice. He gave up just three runs on 10 hits over 11 1/3 innings in those games. The 26 year old was 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 12 starts at home last season.
The Orioles are 17-4 in their last 21 home games.