MIKE ANTHONY
Arizona vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Arizona -121
Arizona has lost the last four starts by Robbie Ray, though the lefty continues to pitch reasonably well. He should have the edge over Padres starter Luis Perdomo. The Padres are 1-4 in his last five starts and 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Arizona is hitting the ball well and we'll back them here on Saturday night!
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Philadelphia
The Phillies won here at PNC Park last night, 7-2, and have the better pitcher going today. Thus, they certainly appear to be an excellent value at 'plus money' Saturday afternoon. It's not like Pittsburgh is a good team anyway; they've now been outscored by 36 runs over the course of the year. That's a worse margin than Philadelphia despite having three more wins.
The Philly pitcher in question is Vincent Velasquez. When not facing Washington, he's been really good this year. Velasquez has an 0-3 TSR vs. the Nats (twice facing Max Scherzer), but otherwise is 2-2 including a win as a +160 dog over the Cubs. Save for one bad outing against Washington (victimized by the long ball), Velasquez has allowed 3 ER or fewer in four of his past five trips to the mound.
You might be surprised to hear that I'm giving the Phils the starting pitching edge here when the Bucs have Ivan Nova going. As impressive as he's been since coming over from the Yankees last year, Nova has started to predictably regress of late. His ERA and WHIP are 4.42 and 1.586 respectively, his L3 starts. He's allowed 26 hits in his last 18 1/3 IP. He figures to get little in the way of support this afternoon seeing as the Pirates finished yday's game w/ only three hits and for the year, rank 25th or lower in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays +110
I really like the value here with Tampa Bay as a home dog in this division matchup against the Yankees. The Rays defeated New York 5-4 on Friday and have now won 3 straight to get back to .500 on the season. This is going to seem like a great price to back the Yankees with Tanaka on the mound, but he's been far from elite in 2017. While he has a 5-2 record, he's got an ugly 5.80 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his 8 starts and coming off a dreadful performance in his last outing.
I'll take my chances on the Rays being able to get to Tanaka early. At the same time, I look for Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese to keep it rolling. Andriese is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 8 starts and has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts. He held the Yankees to just 1 run on 5 hits in a start at New York back in April this year. It's also worth noting that New York is just 1-3 and scoring a mere 3.2 runs/game in dome games this season.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Cincinnati
Pick: Colorado +115
Colorado is great on the road (14-6) with an offense ranked seventh in runs scored. The Rockies pounded out 16 hits in a 12-6 victory in Friday’s opener and have won four of their last five games to maintain the second-best record in the National League. Colorado is 7-1 in 22-year-old Antonio Senzatela's (3.31 ERA) last eight starts. They face a reeling Cincinnati squad that has lost seven in a row, allowing 51 runs. Reds starter Tim Adleman (5.27 ERA) has been erratic, part of a pitching staff ranked #25 in team ERA (4.67) with the second most walks in baseball. Colorado is 8-3 away versus a team with a winning home record and 9-1 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Dave Essler
Tampa Bay +115
Tanaka has given up three or more runs in six of his eight starts this season, and the Rays hit him hard back in early April. So, they Rays have been hitting everyone hard, scoring five or more runs in six of their last seven games. New York's pen had another melt down last night, and has had more blown saves than actual saves on the road this season - and again without Chapman. The Rays used all but Jumbo Diaz and Chase Whitley out of the pen last night - the Rays games are 14-9 to the over at home this season (unusual) and they've played 10 of the last 11 to the over, and I don't think that changes this afternoon. Andriese throws a lot of pitches and only twice has made it through the 7th inning (too many walks) - so, I don't see that "over" trend changing today. The Rays are just hot, just like the Giants, but are at home and underdogs.
Larry Wallace
Red Sox vs Athletics
Play: Red Sox -107
Taking the Red Sox in this game. Athletics have one of the worst offenses in the American League although they've hit better lately. They've taken the first 2 games of the 4 game series, so this is a big game for the Red Sox to win. Moreland has homered in each of the first two games of the series following a drought that dated back to April 23 while Dustin Pedroia has registered a hit in 14 of his 17 contests this month. Manaea also has lost his last two outings, including a setback at Seattle on Monday in which he surrendered four runs on two hits and five walks over five innings. It was the first start since April 26 for the 25-year-old from Indiana, who had been on the disabled list with a strained shoulder. Manaea was pounded last year in his first career turn against the Red Sox, yielding eight runs and 10 hits over 2 2/3 frames at Boston.
Joseph D'Amico
Colorado at Cincinnati
Pick: Colorado +115
Colorado owns the best record in the National League at 27-16, including a road mark of 14-6. Today, the Rockies give Antonio Senzatela the nod. The RH is 6-1 with an ERA of just, 3.31 on the season, winning his L3. Cincinnati is on a 7-game skid in which their pitching has been atrocious. The Reds send Tim Adelman to the bump. The RH is 2-2 with a 5.27 mark on the year. Overall, Cincy's pitching ranks 25th, donning a 4.67 Team ERA. Colorado is 5-1 their L6 games vs. RH starters, 4-1 their L5 games played vs. NL Central opponents, and 7-1 in Senzatela's L8 overall starts. Cincinnati is 0-5 their L5 games vs. RH starters, 0-4 their L4 games played vs. NL West foes, and 0-7 their L7 games played overall.
Ray Monohan
Nationals at Braves
Play: Under 9
The Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves face off on Saturday and the under has a ton of value in this one. Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and he has been dominant again this year. He comes into this game having gone 4-2 with an ERA of 2.80 so far this season. He also has 70 strikeouts in 54.2 innings. I think he will once again go deep in this game and really shut down the Braves bats.
On the mound for the Braves is Bartolo Colon who hasn't had the greatest season but did have a decent outing in his last one giving up two runs in five innings. I think he will still give up some runs in this game but Scherzer will be dominant and that will keep the score low. Some trends to note. Under is 4-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 Saturday games.
Brandon Lee
Phillies vs Pirates
Play: Pirates -120
Pittsburgh is certainly worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Phillies. While the Pirates lost the series opener last night, they are a solid 4-2 in their last 6 and I really like today's starter Ivan Nova, who is quietly sitting here with a 2.48 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He's a bit under the radar right now, as he's got a 4.42 ERA over his last 3 outings, but all 3 were on the road against the Reds, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. He's got a 1.89 ERA in 3 home starts and will be facing a Phillies team he has owned in the past, allowing just 1 earned run over 12 2/3 innings in two career starts.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
There is no denying that the Rangers are currently MLB's hottest team, as last night's 5-3 win over the Tigers in Detroit gives Texas 10 consecutive wins. The Rangers were just 13-20 after a 5-1 loss at San Diego back on May 8 but Texas has averaged 6.4 runs over its last 10 games (all victories) while also getting some solid pitching. The Rangers go for 11 in a row tonight in Detroit, looking to stay within striking distance of the Astros, who own MLB's best record at 29-13, giving them a 6 1/2-game lead over Texas. The Tigers fell to 2-2 on their current six-game homestand and are a 5-7 over their last 12, leaving them 20-20 but just two games back of the first-place Twins in the AL Central.
Tonight's pitching matchup will feature A.J. Griffin (4-0, 3.15 ERA) and Justin Verlander (3-3, 4.47 ERA). Griffin failed to earn a win in his last start, when he was reached for four runs on seven hits in five innings against the A's. Texas won 6-4 with Griffin settling for a no-decision. That ended a string of four straight wins, a stretch in which he twice did not allow a run (four ERs allowed over 26 innings in that span, giving him a 1.38 ERA).
Verlander had a string of three straight quality starts come to an end last Sunday, when he was tagged for four runs on five hits and five walks in six innings by the Angels in Los Angeles. The former Cy Young Award winner and MVP is struggling a bit with his control, issuing 20 walks in his last five starts. His walks (25 in 48.1 IP) are part of why his WHIP is 1.43, compared to his career WHIP of 1.19.
Texas is a perfect 6-0 in Griffin's starts this season, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark at plus-$697. However, got an 8.53 ERA and 30 hits allowed in just 19 innings in his career vs the Tigers! Meanwhile, the veteran Verlander is 10-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 19 career starts against Texas (Tigers are 11-8 ). Texas is long overdue for a 'hiccup,' as is Griffin.
Teddy Davis
Kansas City at Minnesota
Play: Kansas City +106
The Royals are worth a look here after dropping game 1. They still had 11 hits yesterday, but only managed to score 3 runs of that.
Ian Kennedy is just way better than Mejia here. Kennedy has an ERA of 3.03 on the season in 6 six starts and he is still looking for his first win despite pitching well.
Mejia on the other hand has been awful with a 5.78 ERA in his 3 starts. In two of his three starts he failed to make it past the 3rd inning.
Dennis Macklin
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -148
Mike Bolsinger's first start was pretty good but in his second start against the Braves, he showed his true colors never getting out of the fifth in a 10-6 loss to Atlanta. Baltimore snapped a 1-6 skid last night and has the opportunity to make some hay here before traveling to Minnesota and Houston. The O's are 6-1 this year against the Jays and Bird Bombers have no excuse NOT to tee off here against a batting practice pitcher.
Marc Lawrence
Giants at Cardinals
Play: Giants +136
Edges - Giants: Samardzija 4-2 career team starts in this park; and 6-2 last eight away team starts during May… Cardinals: Martinez 20-4 last six home team starts during May. With Samardzija in jaw dropping KW form with 28 Ks and 0 BB’s his last three starts.
ASA
Toronto at Baltimore
Play: Over 9
Mike Bolsinger has a 6.09 ERA and 1.64 WHIP while going 0-2 in his first two starts for the Blue Jays and both of those outings were at home. Now the struggling right-hander is on the road for the first time this season and he’s facing a powerful Orioles lineup that has helped lead the way to a perfect 6-0 record for the Orioles in home games this month. The O’s have averaged 5 runs per game in these 6 games. The Orioles have averaged 7 runs per game in their 5 most recent games and will rough up Bolsinger. Baltimore will have Kevin Gausman toeing the rubber this evening and he is struggling again this season with a 7.19 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. He has so much potential but continues to suffer with major consistency issues and he got roughed up again at Kansas City in his most recent start. The Blue Jays lineup has picked up the pace after a slow start this season and Toronto is averaging 5.6 runs per game in their last 10 games. As a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season Toronto has gone 5-1 to the over. In Gausman’s last 6 starts for the Orioles only 1 under has resulted. We expect both powerful lineups to cash in plenty of run-scoring opportunities in this one.
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 95-74-3 run with free picks, and am 31-23-1 with my complimentary plays in the NBA after hitting the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Speaking of the ECF, does anyone realize there have been no lead changes and ties in this series, thus far? The Cavaliers' biggest lead in Game 1 was 28, and 50 in Game 2. And while everyone is wondering who will win the league MVP - Westbrook, Harden or Leonard - I know the real MVP is making a mockery of the Boston Celtics.
Tonight I'm in the NBA, only this time with the Over in the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors in Game 3.
The teams scored 224 points in Game 1, as the Warriors came from behind to win 113-111, and then demoralized the Spurs in Game 2 with a 136-100 victory. For those incapable of addition by sight, that's 236 points.
An average of 230 points in the first two games, and the Cavaliers coming off that big win last night, you really think the Warriors' tempo will be slowed down because the series has shifted?
I don't think so.
San Antonio will have no choice but to pick things up and play a faster tempo. The Spurs can't afford to try to stop Golden State, and lose focus on their on offense. They need to play just as fast and score just as quick.
Take the Over tonight, as these two continue on a torrid pace.
1* Warriors-Spurs Over