MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, July 19th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Brewers @ Pirates
Davies is 4-0, 4.44 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Milwaukee is 7-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-3

Cole is 4-1, 3.38 in his last six starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Pirates are 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-11-4

Milwaukee lost its last three games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Pittsburgh won nine of last 11 games; under is 14-2 in their last 16 home games.

Cardinals @ Mets
Leake is 1-1, 5.02 in his last five starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten. St Louis is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

deGrom is 6-0, 1.91 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Mets won his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-1

Cardinals won three of their last four games; under is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. New York lost its last three games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.

Phillies @ Marlins
Pivetta is 1-2, 7.89 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Phillies are 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-2

Straily is 3-0, 2.45 in his last six starts (under 4-2); Miami is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-1

Phillies lost eight of last 11 games; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Miami lost six of its last seven home games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

Diamondbacks @ Reds
Greinke is 3-0, 1.42 in his last three starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Arizona is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Adelman is 0-3, 7.54 in his last three starts (under 2-0-1). Reds are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1

Arizona lost five of its last six games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Cincinnati lost its last six home games; under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

Cubs @ Braves
Montgomery is 0-3, 8.38 in his last four starts (under 4-3). Cubs are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1

Dickey is 2-0, 1.09 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Atlanta won his last six home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-3

Cubs won their last six road games; under is 14-4 in their last 18 road games. Atlanta is 3-5 in its last eight home games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.

Padres @ Rockies
Richard is 0-2, 6.18 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. San Diego is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-1

Gray is 2-1, 6.58 in six starts this year (under 3-2-1). Colorado won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2-1

San Diego lost its last three road games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Rockies are 7-5 in their last 12 games; under is 10-6-1 in their last 17 games.

American League

Rangers @ Orioles
Perez is 3-0, 6.00 in his last four starts; Texas scored 31 runs in those games (over 3-1). Rangers are 2-4 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-3

Gausman is 2-3, 7.60 in his last seven starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13. Orioles are 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11

Rangers lost their last three games (under 7-1-1). Baltimore lost 8 of last 12 games- over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Sanchez is 1-2, 5.34 in seven starts this year (under 4-2-1). Toronto is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1

Pomeranz is 3-0, 3.13 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Boston is 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8

Blue Jays lost four of last six games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Boston lost seven of last 11 games; under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games.

New York @ Minnesota
Montgomery is 2-0, 3.76 in his last five starts; over is 6-0-1 in his last seven. New York is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-1

Berrios is 1-2, 9.47 in his last four starts; his last three starts went over. Twins are 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1

New York lost seven of last 11 games; under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games. Twins lost five of last seven games; under is 11-6 in their last 17 games.

Mariners @ Astros
Paxton is 3-0, 2.33 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. battle split his six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-3

Morton is 2-0, 4.00 in his last three starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Houston is 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-2

Mariners won five of their last six games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Houston is 9-4 in its last 13 games; over is 13-5 in their last 18 games.

Tigers @ Royals
Verlander is 0-3, 6.32 in his last three starts; over is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Detroit is 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-3

Hammel is 0-2, 6.14 in his last four starts; over is 7-5 in his last 12. Royals are 2-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-3

Detroit won five of last six games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten road games. Kansas City lost seven of its last eight games; under is 52–1 in their last eight games.

Rays @ A’s
Faria is 4-0, 2.20 in seven MLB starts (under 4-2-1). Rays are 4-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-0-2

Gray is 3-1, 1.67 in his last four starts (under 3-1). A’s are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5

Rays won six of last seven games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Oakland won seven of last 11 games, but lost last two; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.

Interleague

Dodgers @ White Sox
Maeda is 3-1, 3.05 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1

Rodon is 1-2, 5.94 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1). Chicago lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Dodgers won their last ten games; under is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games. White Sox lost their last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Nationals @ Angels
Gonzalez is 3-3, 2.18 in his last six starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Washington is 7-3 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 12-4-3

Meyer is 0-2, 6.28 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Angels are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

Washington won its last six games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Angels are 4-10 in last 14 games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Indians @ Giants
Carrasco is 5-1, 4.17 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). Cleveland is 8-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-1

Cain is 0-7, 7.26 in his last nine starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Giants are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-11-1

Indians lost five of their last six games; under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 games. Giants lost seven of last nine games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mil-Pitt: Davies 13-6; Cole 11-8
StL-NY: Leake 8-10; deGrom 12-6
Phil-Mia: Pivetta 3-9; Straily 11-8
Az-Cin: Greinke 13-5; Adelman 6-10
Chi-Atl: Montgomery 2-5; Dickey 11-7
SD-Col: Richard 7-12; Gray 5-1

American League
Tex-Balt: Perez 7-10; Gausman 9-11
Tor-Bos: Sanchez 3-4; Pomeranz 12-6
NY-Min: Montgomery 7-10; Berrios 8-4
Sea-Hst: Paxton 9-6; Morton 8-4
Det-KC: Verlander 8-11; Hammel 4-14
TB-A’s: Faria 6-1; Gray 7-7

Interleague
LA-Chi: Maeda 10-4; Rodon 1-2
Wsh-LA: Gonzalez 10-9; Meyer 4-8
Clev-SF: Carrasco 14-4; Cain 7-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mil-Pitt: Davies 7-19; Cole 7-19 (4 of last 4)
StL-NY: Leake 3-18; deGrom 7-18
Phil-Mia: Pivetta 4-12; Straily 4-19
Az-Cin: Greinke 1-18; Adelman 5-16
Chi-Atl: Montgomery 2-7; Dickey 6-18
SD-Col: Richard 5-19; Gray 1-6

American League
Tex-Balt: Perez 6-17; Gausman 6-20
Tor-Bos: Sanchez 1-7; Pomeranz 5-18
NY-Min: Montgomery 4-17; Berrios 3-12
Sea-Hst: Paxton 1-15; Morton 1-12
Det-KC: Verlander 6-19; Hammel 1-18
TB-A’s: Faria 2-7; Gray 2-14

Interleague
LA-Chi: Maeda 6-14; Rodon 1-3
Wsh-LA: Gonzalez 6-19; Meyer 5-12
Clev-SF: Carrasco 3-18; Cain 6-17

Umpires

National League
Mil-Pitt: Under is 6-1 in last seven Winters games.
StL-NY: Road team won seven of last nine Rackley games.
Phil-Mia: Last five Hudson games stayed under total.
Az-Cin: Last five Cederstrom games stayed under total.
Chi-Atl: Last three Hickox games stayed under total.
SD-Col: Under is 5-2-1 in last eight May games.

American League
Tex-Balt: Three of last four Scheurwater games went over.
Tor-Bos: Last seven Baker games went over the total.
NY-Min: Over is 8-4-1 in last 13 Wolcott games.
Sea-Hst: Five of last six Danley games stayed under.
Det-KC: Four of last five Carapazza games stayed under.
TB-A’s: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Reynolds games.

Interleague
Wsh-LAA: Underdogs won last four Blaser games; last three stayed under.
LA-Chi: Last four Kellogg games went over the total.
Clev-SF: Seven of last eight Hoberg games went over.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 45-37 AL, favorites -$801
AL @ NL– 48-45 NL, favorites -$418
Total: 90-85 AL, favorites -$1,219

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 46-39-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-39-3
Total: Over 94-78-5

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (10-0 past 10 games, 30-4 past 34 overall)

The Dodgers and All-Star Clayton Kershaw certainly made chalk eaters (-350) sweat for it in Tuesday's game at Guaranteed Rate Park in Chicago, but ultimately they came away with a 1-0 win despite a 17 LOB. That's good for 10 wins in a row, and a ridiculous .882 winning percentage over their past 34 games. Despite the crazy numbers, the Dodgers feel confident they can sustain that type of success for the long haul. With Kenta Maeda on the hill against disappointing left-hander Carlos Rodon, it's certainly possible that an 11th straight win is just around the corner. They Dodgers are 7-1 in their past eight road games against a left-handed starting pitcher, and 42-16 in their past 58 against losing teams.

Coldest team: Reds (0-5 past five overall, 0-6 past six home games)

The Reds turn to Tim Adleman to try and shut down the Diamondbacks and get Cincinnati back into the win column. Lately, that hasn't been a recipe for success. The Reds are 1-6 over Adleman's past seven outings, 1-5 in his past six against teams with an overall winning mark, and 3-13 over his past 16 assignments when he is working on four days of rest. While Arizona has been anything but sharp lately, they will roll All-Star Zack Greinke out to the mound. They're 6-1 over his past seven starts, and a ridiculous 18-3 over his past 21 when he toes the slab against teams with a losing overall record.

Hottest pitcher: Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (8-4, 2.66 ERA)

Gonzalez has quietly pieced together a very nice season, ascending to No. 4 in the majors in the ERA category. While he is overshadowed in D.C. by the likes of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, he holds his own with a 2.66 ERA, 116 strikeouts over 121 2/3 innings and a solid .215 opponent batting average and 1.19 WHIP. On paper, Wednesday's pitching matchup against Alex Meyer looks liks a mismatch. Washington has won six straight, six in a row on the road and five of Gio's past six road outings. Conversely, the Halos are just 2-6 in Meyer's past eight assignments, including 1-4 over his past five against teams with a winning mark.

Coldest pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Orioles (5-7, 6.39 ERA)

If Tuesday's slate proved anything, it's that even the poorest of pitchers can have their day. Bartolo Colon pitched somewhat effectively for the Twins in his debut, Edwin Jackson won his first start of 2017 (and first appearance with the Nationals) and John Lackey picked up a road win in Atlanta. Even a dog can have his day. So is Gausman next in line in that narrative? He has allowed 71 earned runs over 100 innings, most allowed in baseball, while the opposition is drumming him to the tune of a .323 average. His 6.39 ERA is the worst in the majors among regular starters.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (21-5-1 past 27 games overall)

The 'under' cashed in Tuesday's 4-3 win against the Brewers, as the Bucs keep earning total bettors bucks. Over the past 27 games the 'over' has hit in just five of Pittsburgh's outings with one push. A lot of their struggles on offense have come against right-handed starting pitching, as the under is 20-5-1 in the past 26 vs. RHP, including a perfect 5-0 over their past five home games against righties. They've struggled against the good teams, too, with the under 9-1-1 in the past 11 at home against teams with a winning overall record and 10-1-1 in their past 12 against teams with a winning overall mark. Milwaukee have been under kings, too, with the total going under in four in a row. However, Zach Davies has seen the over go 19-6-2 over his past 27 statrts, including 6-2-2 in his past 10 road outings.

Biggest OVER run: Blue Jays (10-2-1 past 13 games overall)

There actually haven't been very many teams to hang your hat on for the 'over' lately, but Toronto has done a decent job in the category. The under hit for a second straight game in Tuesday's 5-4 loss in extra innings, but the over is 6-3-1 over their past 10 outings. In addition, the over is 9-4-2 in their past 15 against teams with an overall winning record, and, for what it's worth, 8-2 in their past 10 games played on a Wednesday. Drew Pomeranz could help inch the total over, too, as the Boston starter has seen the over hit in five straight starts, five in a row inside the division and four of his past five assignments at Fenway Park.

Matchup to watch: White Sox vs. Dodgers

With the White Sox sitting 15 games under .500, and the Dodgers entering 36 games over .500 with 10 straight wins, why play the game, right? Well, a lot of bettors thought the run line was a slam-dunk play on Tuesday only to be disappointed in a hotly contested 1-0 loss by the ChiSox. L.A. enters as moderate favorites on the road, but they are just 9-21 over their past 30 interleague road games against teams with a left-handed starter. And they're 2-5 across their past seven interleague road games against a team with a losing overall mark. Of course, Chicago has dropped five in a row, six of seven interleague games and five of their past six vs. RHP. So who are you backing?

Betcha didn’t know: The Tigers parted with J.D. Martinez in a deal with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, but they were still able to overcome the Royals and post an 'over' result. Justin Verlander's name has been mentioned in trade rumors, as the team could potentially explore dealing the ace before July 31. Perhaps a change of scenery would do him good, as the Tigers are 0-6 over his past six road starts, 1-8 in his past nine against losing teams and 1-4 over his past five starts overall. The Tigers have actually won four in a row, but they're 2-5 across their past seven road outings against a team with a losing record. The Royals are 1-7 in their past eight overall, and just 1-4 in their past five games at 'The K'. Perhaps Verlander figures it out against K.C., as the Royals are just 2-5 against Verlander over his past seven starts against them.

Biggest public favorite: Marlins (-200) vs. Phillies

Biggest public underdog: Yankees (+105) at Twins

Biggest line move: Red Sox (-125 to -140) vs. Blue Jays

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York (-110) at Minnesota; Total: 9.5

It may not have been the help that the New York Yankees needed, but they’re going to get some. Without giving up a top prospect in the system, the Yankees acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle from the Chicago White Sox. At this point, with Robertson, Kahnle, Chapman, and Betances, this bullpen is set up pretty nicely to give the Yankees a huge edge night in and night out.

There is still a need for a starting pitcher or two, but Wednesday’s starter Jordan Montgomery might just need to elevate his game. Montgomery has a 3.78 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.47 xFIP. The rookie left-hander has been quite good this season with 90 strikeouts in 95.1 innings of work. He also has a solid walk rate. One thing I am very concerned about is the escalating home run rate for Montgomery. His best asset all season long has been his command. But, dating back to June 9, he has allowed at least one home run in every start and nine in seven starts with a 19.6 percent HR/FB%. If his home run rate normalizes, things should calm down. In that span that covers 39 innings, Montgomery still has a 3.92 ERA with a 4.03 xFIP.

At least Joe Girardi can now pull his starters at the slightest sign of problems with an immense amount of bullpen depth. He’ll have to be careful monitoring everybody’s workload, but any game projected to be close brings the bullpen into consideration.

Jose Berrios will be back on the bump for the Twins. Berrios has a 3.70 ERA with a 4.01 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP. Berrios hit a bit of a wall heading into the All-Star Break by allowing 13 runs over 17.1 innings in his final three starts of the first half. His first start out of the Break wasn’t very good either, with seven runs allowed, just two earned, in 1.2 innings of work. The defense didn’t help him, but Berrios also walked three and only struck out one. Berrios has good raw stuff and it should play up in a day game with a Yankees team that has to be tired already given the amount of baseball and travel to start the second half.

If I had to look at anything in this one, it feels like your traditional getaway day under. Montgomery’s home run issue is a concern, but he’s been solid in spite of it. Berrios has good stuff. The Yankees may not have Robertson and Kahnle on hand yet and Girardi may be reluctant to use them anyway with a big life change and a late flight to Minneapolis. They may just meet the team in Seattle on Thursday. Either way, this looks like a tough day for both offenses with the early start and the pitchers slated to start.

Seattle at Houston (-115); Total: 8.5

In what has been another frustrating season for the Mariners, James Paxton has been a silver lining. The left-hander will take the hill today against the Astros, who are without Carlos Correa until probably mid-September after suffering a thumb injury. Paxton has a 3.19 ERA with a 2.65 FIP and a 3.44 xFIP. He has 100 strikeouts and 30 walks in 87.1 innings of work.

Paxton threw 5.1 shutout innings in his return from the DL on May 31, but struggled over his next three starts. The command and control just weren’t fully there. Since he was able to get back into a rhythm, he has allowed eight runs on 13 hits over his last 26.1 innings with a 30/8 K/BB ratio. He’s back on track and keeps pumping the ball past hitters.

Charlie Morton has been an excellent find for the Astros. He has a 4.06 ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 3.75 xFIP. He has worked 68.2 innings as an injury also stunted his season. Morton has 78 strikeouts on the year, as he has suddenly added a bunch of velocity and has become a power pitcher. Morton has only made two starts since coming off the DL. He worked on July 7 and threw six solid innings against the Blue Jays. He struggled with his control after a seven-day layoff due to the All-Star Break. He struck out 10, but walked five, against the Twins. I’m not sure what to expect from Morton in this start. He has some significant reverse platoon splits, as lefties have a .274 wOBA and righties have a .378 wOBA, so maybe the Mariners aren’t as bad of a matchup for him as they could be for others.

This is a game that I’ll be staying away from. The Astros have been so dominant that seeing them as just a -115 favorite is a bit of a red flag. Paxton is very good, but the Mariners offense and bullpen have both been inconsistent this season.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-115); Total: 8

Each Sonny Gray start could be his last in an Oakland uniform. It was rumored on Twitter before his start last Friday that Gray had been scratched. That was not the case. There’s a little bit of extra urgency when trading for starting pitchers because they only work once every five days and teams want to maximize their investments by getting as many starts as possible. Keep your ear to the ground on the latest with this one. If you like the A’s, make sure you select the option where your bet only plays if Gray takes the mound.

Jacob Faria has been really strong in his seven starts for the Rays this season. Faria has a 2.00 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. He’s commanded the ball well and has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. The A’s do a lot of their damage with the long ball and Faria has done a pretty good job of limiting those throughout his pro career. One thing that really stands out about Faria is that he has induced a lot of pop ups at every level he has pitched. This season, he has eight pop ups out of 49 fly balls. That’s basically eight strikeouts that you can add to his total because those are wasted at bats that don’t advance runners. With Oakland’s expansive foul territory, this seems like a skill that could be maximized a little bit more.

We’ve seen money come in on Gray with regularity this season. To not see it here is pretty telling. Gray was outstanding against the Indians last Friday and his numbers have been steadily improving. Despite a 64.9 percent LOB%, Gray has a 3.72 ERA with a 3.45 FIP and a 3.40 xFIP. He’s struck out 79 and walked 26 in 84.2 innings of work. Since allowing three home runs in his first start back on May 2, Gray has only allowed five over his last 13 starts. The A’s are a horrible defensive ballclub, but Gray still has a .276 BABIP against because opponents just don’t have any contact quality. If he had some more sequencing luck, he’d be in great sharp. Dating back to June 15, a span of six starts, Gray has a 74.7 percent LOB%. He has a 2.89 ERA in that span with a 3.51 FIP and a 3.65 xFIP. As that LOB% has gone up, his ERA has clearly gone down.

These are two fun pitchers. My guess would be that we have a bit of a narrative-based play on Tampa Bay, with some speculating that Gray will be scratched and others speculating that the trade rumors are bothering him. I can see the former, but not the latter. Getting away from the Oakland defense would be a big boost for Gray and the team goes through this rumor mill every year. It comes with the territory.

I’d slightly lean Oakland here, so long as Gray makes the start. Another factor is that the A’s bullpen has weakened significantly with the trades of Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, so I’d avoid that cluster and take the first five on the A’s. Blake Treinen has a hell of an arm, so maybe the bullpen isn’t that much weaker, but, still. Avoid any potential blow-up.

Toronto at Boston (-140); Total: 10

Uncertain times with the Toronto Blue Jays really aren’t helping matters. The Blue Jays were an enormous mover in the marketplace last night, as Boston opened -125 and Toronto closed -135. The Blue Jays lost. A lack of situational hitting luck has been a thorn in Toronto’s side all year long and the team is inching closer to being a seller in what is becoming a very crowded trade market.

Today, it’ll be Aaron Sanchez against Drew Pomeranz. Along with the baseball gods throwing up a middle finger at Toronto, the injury gods have also made an appearance this season. Sanchez has been plagued by a blister injury for most of the season. Sanchez has a 3.94 ERA, but the underlying metrics through seven starts don’t paint a pretty picture. Sanchez has a 5.69 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP. This isn’t a big sample size, obviously, but there is a big concern with a massive drop in K% and a big spike in BB%. It’s clear that Sanchez isn’t the same guy and the injuries he’s had to contend with are likely to blame. He was awful on July 7 and a lot better on July 14, but he’s not trustworthy right now.

Drew Pomeranz is turning in a fine campaign for the Red Sox. He has a 3.75 ERA with a 3.63 FIP and a 3.69 xFIP. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning and has mostly matched last season’s peripherals when he had a 3.32/3.80/3.71 pitcher slash. Pomeranz was inconsistent throughout much of his career, but he has been very consistent as a member of the Red Sox. There’s a lot to like about his profile. The Blue Jays don’t hit lefties the way that they once did.

Everything points in Boston’s direction here. Baseball handicapping is about removing variance. You can’t remove any with Sanchez in this spot. With Pomeranz, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect. The Red Sox lineup has been far more consistent than the Blue Jays. We’ll lay the price tonight and actually be happy that it’s as low as it is.

Detroit (-120) at Kansas City; Total: 10

As trade rumors swirl about Justin Verlander, who, ultimately, won’t get traded in my mind, he’ll take the mound for the Tigers against the Kansas City Royals. It’ll be Jason Hammel for the Royals, who seriously need to consider selling, but seem like they want to buy. They’ve sniffed around on Lance Lynn, who would make a short trip down I-70 to Kansas City, but that’s one of the few names that they have been linked to this month.

Verlander has a 4.66 ERA with a 4.32 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP. What’s funny about Verlander is that the home run revolution has mostly evaded him. He’s got a 9.7 percent HR/FB%, which is down 1.2 percent from last season, but his ERA has climbed from 3.04 to 4.66. His FIP is up from 3.48 to 4.32. His xFIP is up from 3.78 to 4.96. Verlander’s K% is down quite a bit and his BB% is up quite a bit. He’s also been hit harder, with a 53-point spike in BABIP. Perhaps it’s the aging curve. Verlander, barring an injury, will cross the 2,500-inning threshold this season. He worked 227.2 innings in 2016, the most he has worked since 2012 when he pitched 238.1. He’s mostly kept his team in the game of late, but hasn’t been working as deep into games.

Jason Hammel hasn’t been good. That was a signing doomed to fail from the start. Hammel, like all the Cubs pitchers, enjoyed the fruits of a historically good defense last season to post a 3.83 ERA. It was a similar story with the Cubs in 2015 when he had a 3.74 ERA. This season, back in the AL, Hammel has a 5.02 ERA with a 4.53 FIP and a 5.23 xFIP. Hammel has been a subpar AL pitcher in his career, so I don’t know what else the Royals were expecting. This season, Hammel has reverse platoon splits, as righties have a .358 wOBA and lefties have a .307 wOBA. That is not a good sign when facing a right-handed-heavy Tigers lineup.

The loss of JD Martinez certainly hurts the Tigers offense, especially because he has been its most consistent threat. Miguel Cabrera is hurt. Victor Martinez is old. Ian Kinsler is getting beaten down by the aging curve. Justin Upton is having a good season, but help has been inconsistent. We definitely need to adjust the Tigers without Martinez. That probably hasn’t been done enough here in this spot, but I’m not interested in backing Hammel. Hopefully this game ends in a tie.

Struggling Royals host Tigers
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

Both the Tigers and the Royals will be hungry for a victory when the teams meet in Kansas City on Wednesday.

Detroit is coming off of a blowout victory over Kansas City on Tuesday, as the Tigers beat the Royals 9-3. They racked up 16 hits in that game and are hoping that their bats don’t suddenly go cold on Wednesday. The Royals, meanwhile, are desperate for a win in this one. They are gunning for a Wild Card spot in the American League, and they can’t afford to fall too far behind in the standings. The starters in this meeting on Wednesday are going to be RHP Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.66 ERA, 103 K) for Detroit and RHP Jason Hammel (4-8, 5.02 ERA, 81 K) for Kansas City. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is that the Royals are 11-5 against the money line in home games versus starting pitchers that strike out five or more batters per start this season. Kansas City is, however, 1-8 against the money line at home when Jason Hammel is on the mound with a total of 9 to 9.5 on the year.

Justin Verlander has allowed only three earned runs in his past 12 innings on the mound, but the Tigers need a lot more from their ace moving forward. Verlander needs to start working deeper into games, and he definitely needs to throw a lot more strikes moving forward. Verlander has walked three or more batters in seven of his past 10 outings. That is a big number, and he needs to be a lot better with his control. Verlander has, however, been sharp against the Royals this season, as he is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 11 strikeouts in two starts against Kansas City. Offensively, Detroit badly needs both 1B Miguel Cabrera (.265 BA, 12 HR, 45 RBI) and 2B Ian Kinsler (.245 BA, 9 HR, 24 RBI) to get it going the rest of the way. Both are going to be sought after via trade, but they are in Tigers uniforms for now. They each had their struggles in the first half of the year, but both are dangerous at the plate and should return to the mean soon.

The Royals really need to get back into the win column on Wednesday, but they will need to find a way to get to Verlander in this one. While he has not been his usual self this season, he is still a tough guy to hit when he is on. One guy that should be able to step it up for Kansas City is C Salvador Perez (.282 BA, 18 HR, 58 RBI) this season. Perez has absolutely dominated Verlander in his career, going 24-for-58 with eight doubles, two homers, and 16 RBI against the righty. It’d be big for the Royals if he can produce at the plate in this one. Kansas City will not have a chance of winning, however, if Jason Hammel can’t pitch a solid game. The righty actually has done that in his past two outings, allowing only six earned runs in his past 11.2 innings on the mound. While those aren’t necessarily great numbers, the Royals are really begging for quality starts whenever he is out there. Hammel was shelled in his most recent meeting with the Tigers this season, though. He allowed four earned runs in only 4.1 innings, and he can’t perform like that again on Wednesday.

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Double-Play Picks

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (-125, 8.5)

What a blow for the Astros. Houston has lost their All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa, for six to eight weeks while he recovers from surgery on his left thumb to repair a torn ligament.

While Correa was having a career year (he leads all shortstops in hits, home runs, RBI, OPS and WAR), luckily the Astros have arguably the deepest roster in MLB and a ho-hum 16.5 game lead in the AL west. Chances are, they’ll be fine.

The team that sits 16.5 back is the Seattle Mariners, who will try to take advantage of the Correa-less Astros and win the rubber match of their three-game series in Houston Wednesday afternoon.

Houston lost the opener 9-7 on Monday, before bouncing back on Tuesday with a 6-2 victory. The Astros send right-hander Charlie Morton to the mound for Game 3, while Mariners will counter with left James Paxton.

Morton has been up and down for the ‘Stros this season. He has a 7-3 record, despite a 4.06 ERA and a 1.354 WHIP. Luckily for Houston, Morton has been much stronger at Minute Maid Park this season, where he is 5-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.277 WHIP.

James Paxton, meanwhile, who has looked fantastic at points this season has looked mediocre away from Safeco Field. Paxton is 3-1 on the road with a 4.05 ERA and unfortunately for him, the Astros feast on southpaws.

They rank second in the MLB in average (.280), OPS (.827) and home runs (40) against left handed pitching this season.

Look for Houston to make a statement Wednesday, that while Correa’s loss is obviously a big blow, they are tenacious and strong enough to win without him.

Pick: Astros -125

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (-150, 8 )

The Cardinals have claimed the first two games of this four-game series and the Mets will look to respond by sending their ace to the mound Wednesday evening.

Jacob deGrom will climb the hill at Citi Field and he has been tremendous for the Mets all season, but especially over his last six starts. The Mets have won his last six outings and he owns a 1.53 ERA to go along with a WHIP of 0.766 in those starts. deGrom has also been terrific pitching at home this season with a 2.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

The Cards will run veteran right-hander Mike Leake out to the mound and he has been great on the road in 2017. In starts away from Busch Stadium this season, Leake has a 4-2 win/loss record with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.09.

Leake should be helped out by the fact that the Mets rank 28th in Major League Baseball with their .238 batting average at home this season and rank near the bottom of baseball with only 51 runs scored thus far in the month of July.

This one has "low scoring" written all over it.

Pick: Under 8

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 93-79-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: R.A. Dickey, Atlanta Braves (6-5, 4.08 ERA, $609)

Many thought R.A. Dickey might hang up the cleats after his contract came up in Toronto. The 42-year-old knuckleballer was coming off his worst year as a starter and he’s a 42-old knuckleballer. But he signed with the Braves this season and, after a rocky start, Dickey has been great for second place Atlanta.

His last five starts have been particularly impressive, where he is 1-0 and has pitched to a 1.09 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The knuckleball is dancing once again as Dickey and the Braves are +125 home dogs against the visiting Cubs on Tuesday.

Slumping: Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles (5-7, 6.39 ERA, $-259)

Another day, another Baltimore Orioles' starting pitcher gracing our Slumping Starting Pitcher section.

Right-hander Kevin Gausman has been bad all season long but his last two starts have been especially stinky. In back-to-back losses, Gausman has logged seven total innings and allowed 13 earned runs (16.71 ERA). In his last outing, against the Chicago Cubs, he surrendered eight earned runs over three innings of work and served up four home runs in the process.

Gausman and the Orioles are -135 favorites at home against the Rangers this evening.

Wednesday's Top Trends

* Under is 11-1 in last 12 meetings between Blue Jays and Red Sox at Fenway Park. Jays/Sox Total: 9.5.
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 18-3 in Zack Greinke's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -165 @ Reds.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 30-4 in their last 34 games overall. -160 @ White Sox.
* Under is 14-3-2 in the Los Angeles Angels' last 19 overall. Nationals/Angels Total:9.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is no precipitation in the baseball forecast Wednesday - wind, however, could impact a few games.

There will be a 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing in from right field this afternoon at Target Field for the matchup between the Twins and the visiting Yankees. The total is currently set at 9.5.

The wind will be blowing straight out to center field (as usual) at AT&T Park in San Francisco for this afternoon's game between the Giants and Indians (10-15 miles per hour). The total for this one is 8.

There will also be hitter's winds this evening at Citi Field (Cardinals at Mets: 8-12 miles per hour out to right-center with total at 8 ) and Kauffman Stadium (Tigers at Royals: 10-12 miles per hour out to left with total at 10).

Ump Of The Day

Jordan Baker will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Boston for the game between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. This one is an interesting test for the true power of the home plate umpire when betting MLB totals. Almost everything about this matchup screams Under, but the Over has cashed in Baker's last eight games behind the plate. He's been asking pitchers to put the ball on a tee, and hitters have been responding.

The total tonight in Boston is currently set at 9.5.