Free Picks for Wednesday, July 19th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BREWERS AT PIRATES
PLAY: PIRATES -145
Be sure to check my Twitter timeline during the day to see if this ends up on my personal ticket for Wednesday evening. As of now, I have only played the one CFL game, and will be adding whatever I have in baseball in the morning.
As for this game, it’s a little pricey, but right now looks like it might be the right time to be fading the Brewers. All off a sudden, it looks as though this tremendously surprising team is perhaps feeling some pressure. Meanwhile, the Pirates are playing their best ball of the season. The Bucs are on a 9-2 rampage and are clawing their way back into the NL Central conversation. Pittsburgh now trails the frontrunning Brewers by only five games and they’ve got some major momentum going right now.
I’m looking at this game more from a team perspective with not so much weight being placed on the two starting pitchers. That said, I’ve got no problem expecting Pirates righty Gerrit Cole to outpitch Zach Davies. Let’s call it straight, Davies is the perfect illustration of how misleading W/L records can be. The Milwaukee righthander has a terrific ledger at 11-4 but that’s a major fluke based on his ERA as well as several analytical numbers.
If you’re bargain hunting, shop someplace else as this is not great value with the game priced where it is. Nevertheless, I believe the Pirates have a great shot to pick up another win, and I’ll therefore make Pittsburgh the choice as my free play for Wednesday.
Scott Spreitzer
Chicago vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +143
The Cubs have won five straight since the break and we have been on them a couple of times, feeling they were an undervalued side. The Cubs broke out of their season-long slump at the plate with RISP, connecting on 13 of 27 chances over the weekend against Baltimore. But they're right back in a bit of a funk the last two games with just 4 hits in 22 at-bats with RISP. The Cubs have managed to score runs against ATL and Lester and Lackey backed it up with solid starts on the mound. We don't trust Mike Montgomery to do the same, while Dickey has been magnificent at home for the Braves. Dickey has allowed just 4 earned runs, 33 base runners, and no home runs in his last five starts, covering 33 innings. The Braves have won six straight Dickey starts at home, while the Cubs have won just two of Montgomery's last nine starts, overall.
Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
The Cardinals shutout the Mets in a 5-0 win at Citi Field last night, and I expect another low scoring game tonight. Jacob deGrom will toe the slab for the Mets, and he's in the zone right now. He's won six straight starts, and during that span he allowed more than one run just once. He's 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA in nine starts at Citi Field, and he won his only previous start against the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals hand the ball to Mike Leake, who has had a decent season. Leake (6-7, 3.14 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh his last time out. He's battled control problems, but he's allowed no more than three earned runs in five straight starts. St. Louis has gone under in 10 of their last 11 when Leake starts on the road. The under is 16-6-1 in Leake's last 23 starts overall.
Ben Burns
Tigers vs. Royals
Play: Over 10
Detroit turns to Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.66 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits over five innings in a loss to Toronto on Friday. Verlander has now allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts and note that he’s been very bad on the road thus far by going 2-5 with a 5.65 ERA. Jason Hammel (4-8, 5.04) gets the nod for KC and he most recently allowed three runs off four hits over five innings in a no-decision against Texas on Friday (Hammel is just 3-4 with a 5.00 ERA at home this year as well.) Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that we could have a classic “slug-fest” on our hands in this one.
Teddy Davis
Cardinals vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
The first game of this series was a push with 9 total runs scored. Now we get both teams best pitchers in this game and I see the total flying way under.
Leake is quietly having a very good season for the Cards despite a 6-7 record. His road ERA is 2.84 and he is 6-1 favoring the under as well.
DeGrom takes the mound for the struggling Mets who didn't score a run last night. He is in great form with a 2.45 ERA his last three starts. His home ERA is 2.37 and he is 6-2 at home favoring the under.
Mike Anthony
Cleveland vs. San Francisco
Play: Cleveland -203
The Tribe have actually been swinging their bats like they want to, at .261. They have a top notch wicked bullpen led by a tough righty, named Carlos Carrasco - and the other Cleveland starters can hold their own as well. It's looking like a possible AL Central championship and then some, for the Indians. If you are going to recognize the good games, by Cain, then you need to also recognize the poor 3-8 record and his ugly 5.56 ERA. San Francisco has only a couple random guys on the mound with any juice and heat to their pitches, and he is not the one to worry about for Cleveland.
Marc Lawrence
Arizona at Cincinnati
Pick: Arizona
Edges - Diamondbacks: Greinke 6-1 with 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP last 7 overall team starts; and 8-1 last 9 team starts during July; and 3-0 last 3 team starts vs Cincinnati… Reds: Adelman 3-10 as an underdog, and also 1-6 with 5.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP his last 7 overall team starts. With that look for Adelman to fall to 1-5 in his team starts against NL West foes here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Jim Feist
Dodgers at White Sox
Pick: Under
LA is tops in baseball in pitching, 5-1-1 Under the total in interleague games. Kenta Maeda is on the mound allowing 1 run or less in five of his last six starts. Maeda (7-4) allowed a single run on four hits and two walks while striking out five batters through five innings during Friday's win over Kansas City, 4-1. He faces a weak Chicago offense that is #21 in runs scored. Carlos Rodon threw well in his only home start allowing 2 hits to the Yankees. And the Under is 16-6-1 in Rodon's last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -132
The set-up: The Red Sox got hot about the same time the Yankees went into a slump and Boston took over first-place in the AL East prior to the break. However, Boston's 5-4 win in 15 innings last night over the Blue Jays was just the team's fourth time in 11 games. Boston still stands atop the division at 53-42 but the Rays are just two back and the Yankees sit 3 1/2 back. As for Toronto, the 43-50 Blue Jays reside in the AL East basement, nine games back of the Red Sox. Toronto resumes its four-game series against the Boston tonight, after splitting the first two.
The pitching matchup: Aaron Sanchez (1-2 & 3.94 ERA) heads to the mound for Toronto and Drew Pomeranz (9-4 & 3.75 ERA) for Boston. Sanchez was on the disabled list three times during the season's first half but returned just before the All-Star break and took a beating against Houston, giving up a career-high eight runs on seven hits while lasting only 1 2/3 innings in a 12-2 loss. However, he was much better his last time out in what was just his seventh start of the year, limiting Detroit to an unearned run on seven hits over six innings in a 7-2 victory on July 14. Sanchez is 3-0 with a 3.40 ERA in six career starts against Boston (Toronto is 4-2). Pomeranz was an All-Star for San Diego last year and has been a real 'find' for the Red Sox in 2017, with nine wins (only Sale has more). He has won his past three decisions and is 6-1 in his past seven, not losing since June 4, The Red Sox are 8-2 in his past 10 starts, making Boston 12-6 in all of his 2017 starts.
The pick: Sanchez was a 15-game winner in 2016 and led all AL starters with a 3.00 ERA. However, this year's version had been a mere shell of Sanchez 2016, missing nearly two months due to issues with blisters. Here in 2017, Pomeranz gets the nod over Sanchez.
Scott Rickenbach
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play:Rangers +120
Look for the Rangers to bounce back after getting embarrassed yesterday. Texas got drilled 12-1 by the Orioles and they've now lost 3 straight games. The Rangers are 8-4 this season (and 25-15 the last 3 seasons combined) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Texas is also a stellar 5-1 this season (and 23-12 the last 3 seasons combined) when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The Orioles will be facing Rangers southpaw Martin Perez and Baltimore's .304 on base percentage versus left-handed pitching this season ranks 24th out of all 30 MLB teams. Texas has won 4 of the last 5 starts that Perez has made and the lefty has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Orioles will have Kevin Gausman on the mound and he has been completely crushed for 13 earned runs in a total of just 7 innings spanning his last 2 starts! Also, Baltimore has lost 5 of the last 7 starts that Gausman has made. Though the O's win yesterday was their 2nd straight W, the Orioles had previously lost 10 of their last 13 games. Grab the underdog value here!
Mike Lundin
Cleveland vs. San Francisco
Play: Cleveland -1½ -125
Good spot to back the Cleveland Indians with Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 3.65 ERA) on the mound. He's 0-2 in two career starts against the Giants, despite a solid 3.21 ERA. Carrasco is 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 11 road outings in 2017.
The Giants hand the ball to Matt Cain (3-8, 5.56 ERA) who was sent to the bullpen before returning to the rotation for this outing with Johnny Cueto on the DL. Cain has dropped seven straight decisions and has surrendered five or more runs in four of his last six starts.
Today Cain will face an Indians team looking to get back to their winning ways after Tuesday's 2-1 loss in extra innings here at AT&T Park. The Indians are 8-2 with Carrasco on the mound following a loss this season.
Wesley Scott
St. Louis Cardinals at New York
Play: St. Louis +141
The St. Louis Cardinals (46-47 Overall, 20-23 Away) face the New York Mets (41-50 Overall, 21-27 Home) in game three of three.
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a brilliant shut out performance from Michael Wacha who got the Cardinals the win last night, 5-0. The Cardinals currently sit 4.5 games back of NL Central leader, Milwaukee Brewers.
St. Louis sends Mike Leake (6-7, 3.14 ERA) to the mound against the Mets. Leake has been bad in his last two outings.
In his last two starts, he has pitched 8.2 innings, allowing 17 hits, 10 runs (five earned), three home runs, six walks and five strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom (10-3, 3.48 ERA) will get the not as he faces the Cardinals for the second time this season. deGrom got the win against the Cardinals on July 7th.
He pitched seven innings, allowing eight hits, four runs (all earned), four home runs and five strikeouts in the 6-5 win at St. Louis.
Andrew Gold
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play:Rangers +126
The Orioles have taken the first two games of this series and last night they did it in dominating form. However, don't let that fool you with Gausman taking the mound tonight for the Orioles. He has a 6.39 ERA on the year and is in terrible form with a 8.36 ERA his last 3 starts.
Perez hasn't had the season the Rangers had hoped for with a 4.55 ERA on the season. He has settled down now with a 3.86 ERA his last three starts. Perez does own a 2-1 record against the Orioles.
Tony Karpinski
Rays vs. Athletics
Play: Under 8
I look for a pitchers duel in this matchup on Wednesday. Its a rare day game in Oakland. Faria is a tough pitcher to deal with - with a nasty 2.00 ERA and 41 K's - and has been the only bright light during a down year for the pitchers being able to strike anyone out, on the whole. But, Tampa Bay has struggled with getting guys in scoring position, and Evan Longoria is not bringing in guys like they thought he would be doing at this point of the season.