MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, October 11th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
WASHINGTON (97 - 68 ) at LA DODGERS (92 - 73) - 5:05 PM
JOE ROSS (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 6-3 (+3.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)
JOE ROSS vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ROSS is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 5.73 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.0 units)
CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KERSHAW is 11-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 0.946.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-8. (-2.1 units)
CHICAGO CUBS (105 - 59) at SAN FRANCISCO (89 - 77) - 8:35 PM
JOHN LACKEY (R) vs. MATT MOORE (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 6-4 (+1.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)
JOHN LACKEY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LACKEY is 2-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.2 units)
MATT MOORE vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.
WASHINGTON vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home
CHI CUBS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Chi Cubs are 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games ,when playing on the road against San Francisco
Chi Cubs5-1-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco4-1-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
San Francisco is 1-5-1 SU in their last 7 games ,when playing Chi Cubs
Washington at LA Dodgers
Ross: WASHINGTON is 12-18 SU with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games
Kershaw: LA DODGERS are 10-5 SU after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco
Lackey: CHICAGO CUBS are 8-11 SU on the road when the money line is +125 to -125
Moore: SAN FRANCISCO is 16-6 SU with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games
StatFox Super Situations
WASHINGTON at LA DODGERS
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing against opponent starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest 54-27 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 28.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
CHICAGO CUBS at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: SAN FRANCISCO (3.5) , OPPONENT (2.2)
Nationals @ Dodgers
Ross/Lopez would both be making their first postseason start. Ross was 0-1, 2.79 in three September starts after coming off the DL (under 2-0-1). Washington is 7-4 in his road starts. he allowed two runs in 6.1 IP in his one start against the Dodgers.
Lopez is 2-3, 6.44 in six MLB starts, first of which was against LA on July 19 (allowed six runs in 4.2 IP). Nationals are 1-3 in his road starts. Over is 3-3 when he starts.
Youngster Urias is making his first postseason start; he 0-0, 1.50 in three September starts (only 12 IP- they were trying to limit his innings). He is 0-0, 3.00 in two starts (nine IP) against the Nationals this year. Four of his last five starts stayed under. Dodgers are 7-1 in his home starts.
Dodgers are in playoffs for 4th year in a row- their last World Series title was in 1988. LA is 6-3 vs Washington this season; they’re 11-2 in last 13 home games, but need win here to keep their season alive. Nationals won four of last five road games; they’re in playoffs for third time in last five years.
Roberts is a rookie manager. Baker is 21-27 as postseason manager; he won NL pennant is 2002 with the Giants.
Cubs @ Giants
Lackey is 3-1, 2.62 in his last seven starts; he allowed two runs in five IP in his once starts against the Giants this year. His last three starts went over the total. Cubs are 7-6 in his road starts. Lackey is 8-5, 3.11 in 20 postseason starts.
Moore is 2-0, 1.15 in his last two starts; his last four went over. Giants won his last four home starts. He didn’t pitch against the Cubs this season. Moore is 1-1, 4.41 in four postseason games (2 starts).
Giants are 4-6 against the Cubs this year; they’ve won six of last eight games overall (six of last seven at home), after a dreadful second half of season. Chicago won 11 of its last 15 games, five of its last eight on foreign soil.
Bochy won three World Series in last six years; he is 44-32 as a postseason manager. Madden got Rays to ’08 World Series; he is 19-23 as a postseason manager. Bochy is now 10-0 in elimination games with the Giants.
Armadillosports.com
Game 4 - Cubs at Giants
By Sportsbook.ag
Chicago Cubs (105-59) at San Francisco Giants (89-77)
Sportsbook.ag Game 4 Odds: Chicago -130, San Francisco +120, Total: 7.5
The Cubs couldn’t close out the Giants on Monday night, but they’ll give it another shot on Tuesday at AT&T Park.
The Giants (89-77) looked dead and buried. Down two games to none in the series, they trailed the Cubs (105-59), 3-0, on Monday night after pitcher Jake Arrieta hit a three-run homer off ace Madison Bumgarner in the second inning.
But then the Giants began to chip away. C Buster Posey (5-for-16, 2B, RBI) hit an RBI single in the third, 1B Brandon Belt (2-for-12, 2 RBI) hit a sacrifice fly in the fifth and 3B Conor Gillaspie (4-for-15, HR, 3B, 5 RBI) game San Francisco the lead with a two-run triple in the eighth. With the game tied at five in the 13th, 2B Joe Panik (4-for-10, 2 2B, RBI) kept the season alive with a walk-off double.
Did the Giants, who won titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014, frazzle the Cubs with their thrilling victory? Joe Maddon’s club will attempt to clinch the series again on Tuesday night behind veteran RHP John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA during the regular season).
Bruce Bochy will put his team’s fate in the hands of LHP Matt Moore (13-12, 4.08 ERA during the regular season). The Cubs have gone 6-4 against the Giants this season, though the Giants have taken three of four in San Francisco. During the regular season, the Cubs posted a 46-34 road mark. The Giants went 45-36 at home.
The Cubs have a tough assignment on Tuesday night, as CF Dexter Fowler (2-for-12, 2B) is the only Cub who has ever faced Moore. (He’s 1-for-1 against him with a walk.) 3B Kris Bryant (5-for-12, HR, 2 2B, 3 RBI) hit a massive, game-tying two-run shot in the ninth inning on Monday, and Maddon needs him to stay hot.
IF Javier Baez (5-for-12, HR, RBI) has had a good series, but 2B Ben Zobrist (2-for-12, 2B, RBI), RF Jason Heyward (1-for-8, 2B), SS Addison Russell (1-for-12) and 1B Anthony Rizzo (0-for-13) have struggled. Lackey faced the Giants once this season and earned a no-decision, allowing just one earned run on one hit in five innings. For his career, he’s 2-1 against the Giants with a 3.34 ERA. In 127 1/3 postseason innings, Lackey is 8-5 with a 3.11 ERA.
The Giants have seen very little of Lackey, though 3B Eduardo Nunez (0-for-3)—who only has three at-bats in this series—is 5-for-15 against him with four doubles. Posey is 0-for-2, Pence is 1-for-5 with a double, Panik is 0-for-2, Gillespie is 0-for-3 and Belt is 0-for-1.
Aside from CF Denard Span (3-for-14, 2B, 3B)—who is 2-for-12 against him—and the aforementioned players, no other Giants have faced Lackey.
Moore has never faced the Cubs in his career. In 16 1/3 postseason innings (two starts and two relief appearances), the lefty is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA.
Tuesday's NLDS Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the brink of elimination from the National League Division Series and can't figure out where to turn in search of a savior on the mound. The Dodgers don't plan to name a starting pitcher until the morning before the game when they host the Washington Nationals in Game 4 of the NLDS on Tuesday.
A rainout in Washington over the weekend changed things around for Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts, who is still deciding whether to bring back ace Clayton Kershaw on short rest or to turn to rookie Julio Urias. "I think you look at Julio at home, but you look at Kershaw on short rest at home," Roberts told reporters after an 8-3 loss in Game 3 in which he needed six innings from his bullpen. "So as an organization, we've got to figure out what gives us the best chance tomorrow." The Nationals aren't rushing to name a Game 4 starter, either, and will go with either Joe Ross or Reynaldo Lopez instead of asking Max Scherzer to pitch on short rest. Washington lost behind Scherzer in Game 1 but broke out the offense in the last two contests, including a pair of four-run innings that decided things in Game 3.
LINE HISTORY: The Dodgers opened as heavy -235 faves once Clayton Kershaw was announced as their starter. However, they have been bet down slightly to -232. The total for the game opened opened at 6.5 and has actually been bet up to 7. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful day for baseball in Los Angeles. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures will be in the high 60's. There should be a slight hitters wind gusting out to right field at five to seven miles per hour.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals RH Joe Ross (7-5, 3.43 ERA) or RH Reynaldo Lopez (5-3, 4.91) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 1.69) or LH Julio Urias (5-2, 3.39)
Ross had his innings carefully monitored down the stretch after returning from injury and worked a total of 9 2/3 frames over his last three starts while allowing three runs. The 23-year-old surrendered two runs in 6 1/3 innings at Los Angeles on June 22 and could work the first few innings before yielding to Lopez. The 22-year-old Dominican started in six of his 11 appearances and made his major league debut against the Dodgers on July 19, when he was hammered for six runs on 10 hits in 4 2/3 frames.
Kershaw allowed three runs and eight hits in five innings of Game 1 but came away with the win to improve to 3-6 with a 4.65 ERA in his postseason career. The three-time Cy Young Award winner missed over two months with a back injury before returning in September and could instead go on regular rest in Game 5 if Los Angeles could win Game 4 behind Urias. The 20-year-old Mexican did not allow more than two earned runs in any of his final eight appearances during the regular season and is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA in nine home games - seven starts.
TRENDS:
* Dodgers are 5-0 in Kershaw's last five home starts versus Nationals.
* Under is 5-0 in Kershaw's last five home starts versus Nationals.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Nationals are 5-1 in Ross' last six starts versus a team with a winning record.
CONSENSUS: The public is giving Kershaw the edge in Game 4 with 58 percent of wagers on the Dodgers. Fifty-eight percent of wagers are also on the Over in this game.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants refuse to panic in elimination games and second baseman Joe Panik thrived to became their latest postseason hero. The Giants have won a record 10 straight in elimination contests and they attempt to tie the best-of-five National League Division Series at 2-2 when they host the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday.
Panik reached base five times on three hits and two walks Monday and belted the blistering walkoff RBI double off the wall in right-center field to provide San Francisco with a 6-5, 13-inning victory. "We're always a confident bunch," Panik said on the postgame television interview. "We've been there before and we're facing a really good team in the Cubs. So it's a matter of trying to stay within ourselves and not try to do too much and play the way we know how to play." San Francisco used a three-run eighth inning — third baseman Conor Gillaspie's two-run triple was the big hit — to take a two-run lead into the ninth inning before Chicago third baseman Kris Bryant hit a tying two-run homer to force the extra frames. The Cubs have dropped eight of their last 10 postseason road games and manager Joe Maddon has this to say of Monday's defeat: "We played it hard, we played it right — and they beat us."
LINE HISTORY: Game 4 has opened with the Giants as +117 home dogs, but have been bet back slightly to +113. The total for Game 4 is set at 7.5. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: There is a strong hitters wind in the forecast for Game 4, with a 10-13 mile per hour wind gusting out to right field. It will be partly cloudy, with temperatures in the mid 50's.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs RH John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA) vs. Giants LH Matt Moore (13-12, 4.08)
Lackey is a veteran of the postseason wars dating to 2002 and has compiled an 8-5 record and 3.11 ERA in 23 career appearances (20 starts). "Yeah, I've had several postseason starts, and one doesn't really affect the next one," Lackey said at a news conference. "You kind of know what to expect on the outside like as far as the flyovers and all the more time in between innings and that kind of stuff, you know how to handle that, but once you get in the game, it's another game, another challenge." Lackey, who turns 38 later this month, is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco, including a no-decision Sept. 4 when he gave up two runs (one earned) and one hit in five innings.
Moore is making his fifth postseason appearance and third start, with the others coming when he played for the Tampa Bay Rays — then managed by Maddon. Moore went 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA in those four appearances that occurred when he was 22 and 24 years old and he said he learned from the experience. "I think just taking a little bit relaxed mindset, maybe stepping back and realizing that it's the same game; it's just a bigger moment," Moore said at a news conference. "Try not to get caught up too much in the second."
TRENDS:
* Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 playoff road games.
* Giants are 5-0 in their last five home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Cubs last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Moore's last four starts overall.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the Cubs a slight edge to get the job done and move on in four games, with 52 percent of wagers on Chicago. As for the total, 57 percent of wagers are on the Over.