Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, October 11th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
David Banks
Cubs vs. Giants
Pick: Over 7.5
Facing elimination, the San Francisco Giants took advantage of Conor Gillaspie’s two-run triple in the eighth inning forcing the game to extra innings where the Giants won on Joe Panik’s RBI double in the 13th. Brandon Crawford had doubled before Panik and scored the game-winning run on Panik’s hit. Now, the Giants need another miracle to force a deciding Game 5.
Left-hander Matt Moore will start for the Giants and takes the hill with plenty of momentum. In his last two starts of the regular season, Moore gave up just two runs and struck out 17 while walking just two hitters. Moore’s season record of 13-12 and his 4.08 ERA are not jaw-dropping, but he is pitching well at the right time.
For Chicago, it will be John Lackey who was one cog in MLB’s best pitching rotation. The tall right-hander went 11-8 during the regular season with a 3.35 ERA. The 37-year-old Lackey struck out 180 batters on the season. He struck out four and gave up just one hit and one earned run in five innings of work on Sept. 4 in a 3-2 win over the Giants. The Cubs had 10 hits that day with 1B Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward going 3-for-6 and SS Addison Russell 3-for-5. Thus far in the series, Rizzo doesn’t have a hit and Russell and Heyward have just one.
Kris Bryant leads the Cubs batting .417 with two doubles and a home run. The Giants will rely on the bats of Panik (.400, 2 doubles) and catcher Buster Posey (.313) who is 5-for-16. If the Giants can pull off another dramatic victory, Game 5 would be played on Thursday night back in Chicago’s Wrigley Stadium.
Alex Smith
Los Angeles Kings Over 98.5 Points -110
The Los Angeles Kings returned to the postseason before a quick first round exit at the hands of division rival San Jose. With 102 points (one of three Best Bet winners), the Kings nearly won the Pacific Division over Anaheim. But while they dominated during the first half of the campaign (25-11-2), their lack of depth on defense and inconsistent offensive productions proved to be a key weaknesses late in the year and in the playoffs. All-Star Drew Doughty (14 goals, 51 points) logged heavy minutes every night and led the league in shifts per game with 33.3 and ranked third in average time on ice with 28:01. Along with Jake Muzzin (8 goals, 40 points), LA's blue-line corps isn't much to write about. Thankfully, things are still sharp in net with Jonathan Quick (40-23-5, 2.22 GAA; .918 w/5 SO in 68 GP) carrying the bulk of the starts. At age 30, the two-time Vezina finalist has played in a lot of games over the last several seasons, but shows no signs of slowing down. His battery mate for this season is Jeff Zatkoff, who looked sturdy in two seasons of relief with Pittsburgh, but was made expendable with the emergence of Matt Murray.
The key members up front still remain the same. Led by Selke Trophy winner Anze Kopitar (25 goals, 74 points) and veteran Jeff Carter (24 goals, 62 points) who will most likely be re-paired with Tyler Toffoli (31 goals, 58 points) and Tanner Pearson (15 goals, 36 points) again. The loss of physical winger Milan Lucic to division foe Edmonton leaves a bit of hole for a team that loves to bang bodies along the boards; the Kings lead the league in hits per game last year with 30.3 and have been #1 or #2 in that category in each of the last five seasons. The additions of Teddy Purcell (14 goals, 43 points), Michael Latta (17 points and 163 hits the last three seasons with Washington) and Tom Gilbert (14 points, 84 hits the last two season with Montreal) should address these issues, along with camp invites to Brett Sutter (son of head coach Darryl) and Paul Bissonette; two grinders that have enough talent and experience to make the 23-man roster.
Overall, this club still has enough talent and one of the best coaching staffs in the league in head coach Darryl Sutter, penalty kill tactician John Stevens and former St. Louis coach Davis Payne spearheading the power play. The Kings haven't won three cups in the last five years due to fluky play. This is a strong, balanced organization that prides itself on being a perennial Stanley Cup contender and 2016-17 should be no exception. I like Los Angeles to go over 98.5 points and to win the Pacific Division at +225. With the changes in Anaheim, the potential for a letdown in San Jose, and rebuilds in progress for the bottom of the division, the Kings are sitting on another potential triple digit season.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis Under 101½ +110
There are two ways to play this. One can choose to play it under 101½ points for the season at BET365 with a takeback of +110 or play total wins for the year. We like the +110 at 365 as opposed to laying juice at the other joints so that's how we'll play it. We would have no problem recommending going under 46½ wins either.
The Blue Notes finished with 107 points last year when many things went right but a dramatic turn for the worse here is almost inevitable and we’ll start with Ken Hitchcock. Hitchcock has already announced that this is his last year before retiring. That in itself is odd because most teams have long term plans and often take on the personality of their coach. The coach helps to define who you are but now St. Louis will play until Hitchcock gets fired or walks away without knowing who they are or what they’ll become. The mindset on the bench has to come into question too, as every player knows that Hitchcock will not be around next year so why work your ass up for someone that is leaving? Aside from that, Hitchcock is a career loser who wears his welcome out quickly. The Blues were on the verge of firing him anyway but a successful first round in last year’s playoffs saved him from that fate. Nothing will save him this time around.
Next we have the goaltending situation, which also has Hitchcock’s stamp on it. For whatever reason, Hitch loves Jake Allen ands never liked Brian Elliott. In last year’s playoffs, Hitchcock could not wait to replace Brian Elliott with Allen and the first time that Elliott stumbled (despite being absolutely outstanding in every other playoff game), Hitchcock made the switch but was forced to switch right back after Allen was shaky. Jake Allen has been handed the #1 job many times previously but failed to hang onto it. He’s been handed it again but this time there will be no Brian Elliott to bail the Blues out. Allen’s backup is Carter Hutton, a career stiff that backed up Pekka Rinne in Nashville the past three years while posting one of the worst save percentages in the game. If Plan A does not work, the Blue Notes are in big trouble. If Plan A does work, the Blue Notes are still in trouble.
Up front, Alexander Steen and Paul Stastny are getting old and David Backes signed with Boston. The Blue Notes have some nice pieces with Vladimir Tarasenko, Robby Fabbri, Jori Lehtera and Jaden Schwartz but Fabbri was a rookie last year and a sophomore slump is possible. Even without one, this group of forwards is not going to light the world on fire. They are good but every team that finished below St. Louis last year improved while the Blue Notes did not. Looking up and down the Blues roster, we see plenty of dead weight and not much leadership at all. The best teams in the NHL finish with 100+ points and there are only a handful of them. ISt. Louis is not one of the best. In the West, one must expect improvement from Arizona, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary and Minnesota. That means regression MUST come from somewhere. It is of our opinion that the Blue Notes are a fringe playoff team at best, which means somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 to 90 points and well below this point total.
CAROLINA Over 34½ wins -141
CAROLINA Over 78½ points -110
There are two ways to play this one, as each sportsbook offers something different. One could either bet total wins or total points for the season but we prefer total points because OT losses count for points, which helps us to reach our goal. Thus, the following write-up applies to both wagers. We did some shopping around and the best number we found is at bookmaker.eu which is at 78½ points -110, which is where we are going to play it.
We’ll start off with last year’s results in which the Hurricanes finished with 35 victories and 86 points and missed the playoffs by seven points. This year’s posted numbers say the Hurricanes are going to regress and we could not disagree more. The reason they missed the playoffs was because they lost a league high 16 games in OT. One could blame their goaltending and that would be accurate, as both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack finished with identical save percentages of .901. That has to improve and we trust it will because Lack has settled into his new surroundings and will be counted on more frequently. Ward signed a two-year deal in the off-season for much less money so he’s likely the backup with little to no pressure on him. Lack was tremendous in his years with the Canucks and he’s not past his prime. Give him the starting job and his confidence back and it could make a world of difference. The management group in Carolina is too sharp to allow goaltending to be the same issue as it was last year so we have to believe that they believe Lack is very capable of having a great year. Coach Bill Peters is in his third year in Carolina. The ‘Canes have missed the playoffs for seven straight years so the rebuild and all the work that has gone into it has to start paying off and we absolutely trust that this is the year it starts coming together. No question that Carolina is a better team this year than last.
Additions: Lee Stempniak, Teuvo Teravainen, Bryan Bickell, Viktor Stalberg,
Departures: James Wisniewski, Riley Nash, Nathan Gerbe, Brad Malone.
We don’t see the departures being better than the arrivals, especially when you consider the ‘Canes added three Blackhawks that know a thing or two about winning hockey games. Lee Stempniak is another veteran presence that has played everywhere including some pretty decent teams in Pittsburgh, St. Louis and New York. Dude can produce too.
Carolina was a top-7 puck possession team last year and we cannot overstate enough the importance of that metric. In other words, the ‘Canes have the puck almost always more than the team that they are playing. The teams that ranked above them last year in puck possession numbers were Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim and Tampa Bay. That’s not bad company.
Led by 24-year-old Justin Faulk, the defensive group has three other d-men coming into their sophomore seasons in Jacob Slavin, Noah Hanifin and Brett Pesce. They’re building one hell of a core in Carolina that is on the verge of being scary good and might already be there. Incidentally, Faulk is a big-minute, franchise defenseman and the appreciation for his game league wide is about to explode. The Hurricanes will sport a young, revamped forward core this season. That, coupled with one of the league's best two-way blue-lines, makes this is a team that could be very dangerous when it comes to putting pucks in the net, which was another weakness last season.
Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis went out this offseason and added size, skill and speed. The ‘Canes are going to roll out three scoring lines this year with Jordan Staal (huge second half last year) and Victor Rask centering two of the lines. One of a number of others will center the third line. The addition of Teuvo Teravainen and Lee Stempniak and the expected emergence of Sebastian Aho give the ‘Canes so many more scoring options than they had a year ago. The so-called experts will try and get you to believe that the ‘Canes will be offensively handicapped but don’t buy it. Between Staal, Rask, Elias Lindholm, Aho, Faulk, Jeff Skinner, Andrej Nestrasil, Teravainen, Stempniak, and perhaps the best group of puck moving defensemen in the league, there is plenty of offense to go around.
The Hurricanes had a PDO of 98.2 last year, which ranked 29th in the NHL.PDO is the sum of a team's 5v5 shooting percentage (the number of goals they score divided by the number of shots on goal they generate) and their 5v5 save percentage (the number of shots their goalies stop divided by the number of shots on goal they allow). PDO is a luck driven stat that reveals that Carolina was unlucky in converting their significant territorial advantage into results. A low shooting percentage combined with a low save percentage and Carolina still had 86 points last season. There is no regression here. The ‘Canes are being hugely underestimated, as they are a playoff team that is almost certain to surpass last year’s point total of 86. We understand that many of you do not have accounts at all these places but we're always shopping for the best number and since this is a 4 unit play. we are betting it at the best place. We still recommend betting over 80½ or over 34½ wins but for our record, we are going over 78½ at Bookmaker and franky, we can't get ourt bet in quick enough. This is a bad number that is influenced by the media predicting Carolina to miss the playoffs again. That is such hogwash. Bet this one with confidence.
Wunderdog
Washington vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 -109
There is no urgency on Washington to win, up 2-1, so they go with 23-year-old Joe Ross. Ross had his innings carefully monitored down the stretch after returning from injury and worked a total of 9+ innings over his last three starts. He allowed more hits than innings pitched this season and on the road, allowed 19 walks, 73 base runners in 57 innings. Will the team close it out tonight? The Washington franchise has not won a playoff series since it was the Montreal Expos in 1981, so this group is not used to winning playoff series. The Dodgers are on a 44-17 run at home and go with ace Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 1.69 ERA). He only threw 82 pitches in his last start, allowing two runs in seven innings. The Dodgers are 35-16 at home against a right-handed starter, plus 59-21 overall when Kershaw starts. L.A. has won 8 of the last 11 against Washington and the Nationals are 15-37 in this park.
Bruce Marshall
Cubs at Giants
Play: Over 7.5
The aura of invincibility of the Cubs' bullpen against the Giants was finally shattered last night as SF got to Cubs relievers after more than 33 scoreless innings against them this season. More possible problems tonight for the Cubs, as their hitters continue to have issues vs. breaking balls, of which Giants starter Matt Moore throws plenty. Cubs starter John Lackey is a postseason veteran but is not dominant and posted only so-so numbers in September. After these sides went 11 runs last night, they have also proved they can clear Tuesday's posted 7 1/2 total.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +113 over Chicago
Matt Moore has 33 K’s over his last 31 frames. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 16%. Moore has been a high risk/high reward starter all year because he has wicked stuff but he struggles with his control. We’ll gamble more on starters in the playoffs because most managers don’t let them get whacked. If Moore is not throwing strikes, Bruce Bochy will get him the hell out of there in this win or go home game. The playoffs are much more than just starters.
Conor Gillaspie once again played the unlikely hero by beating one of the National League’s top relievers for the second time in a week and the Giants stayed alive after beating the Cubs 6-5 in 13 innings last night. We should discuss the bullpens here, as both teams used up some bullets during last night’s long slog. Starting with the Giants, Sergio Romo threw two innings and 32 pitches, gave up the critical game-tying dinger in the ninth, and seems to get used sparingly in back-to-back situations. We wouldn’t be surprised if he, Ty Blach, and Derek Law all are either out of the picture or are in line for minimal use tonight. That leaves the Giants with Santiago Casilla, Will Smith (who also pitched last night), and maybe Jeff Samardzija as the big weapons left in the bullpen with Madison Bumgarner spent and Johnny Cueto on tap for Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Cubs almost certainly won’t go back to Mike Montgomery after four innings of relief, but other than he and Aroldis Chapman, the team’s other relievers didn’t make it to double-digit pitches, and may be just fine for tonight.
On the position-player side, we’ll keep assuming that Eduardo Nunez isn’t at 100 percent and that Jorge Soler is available again, but may still be slightly compromised. The way that Cubs pitchers have been hitting, now both Travis Wood and Jake Arrieta have homers this series–perhaps using a couple of arms as bats wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. All systems are (mostly) go.
If there is one thing that we learned over the course of the 2016 season, it is that the Cubs were far and away the best team in baseball. If there is one thing that we learned over the course of the last seven years, it is that we should never, ever–under any circumstances–count out the San Francisco Giants in the playoffs. Bumgarner may not be around for Game 4, but there’s the history of Cody Ross, Marco Scutaro, Travis Ishikawa, and now Conor Gillaspie.
John Lackey hasn't pitched since Sept. 27. However, this was his best year since 2007 and he did it at age 37. Before you bank on Lackey finishing off the Giants, there are three reasons for caution: 1) Skills this year no better than last two years; 2) His 80% inflated strand rate says he wiggled out of lots of jams, which was the main reason for is 3.35 ERA. 3) Even with now-elite first-pitch strike rate, his 10% swing and miss rate is at his max, so command likely has peaked. There are 29 other clubs that would love to have John Lackey. He’s fiery, he hates losing, he has good skills and he throws strikes. Thing is, the Giants are actually a pretty good offensive team overall. The Cubs may lead on paper–even in San Francisco–but it’s not over yet. In a 50/50 proposition and taking back a price, we’ll gladly take the resilient host.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +113 over Chicago
Matt Moore has 33 K’s over his last 31 frames. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 16%. Moore has been a high risk/high reward starter all year because he has wicked stuff but he struggles with his control. We’ll gamble more on starters in the playoffs because most managers don’t let them get whacked. If Moore is not throwing strikes, Bruce Bochy will get him the hell out of there in this win or go home game. The playoffs are much more than just starters.
Conor Gillaspie once again played the unlikely hero by beating one of the National League’s top relievers for the second time in a week and the Giants stayed alive after beating the Cubs 6-5 in 13 innings last night. We should discuss the bullpens here, as both teams used up some bullets during last night’s long slog. Starting with the Giants, Sergio Romo threw two innings and 32 pitches, gave up the critical game-tying dinger in the ninth, and seems to get used sparingly in back-to-back situations. We wouldn’t be surprised if he, Ty Blach, and Derek Law all are either out of the picture or are in line for minimal use tonight. That leaves the Giants with Santiago Casilla, Will Smith (who also pitched last night), and maybe Jeff Samardzija as the big weapons left in the bullpen with Madison Bumgarner spent and Johnny Cueto on tap for Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Cubs almost certainly won’t go back to Mike Montgomery after four innings of relief, but other than he and Aroldis Chapman, the team’s other relievers didn’t make it to double-digit pitches, and may be just fine for tonight.
On the position-player side, we’ll keep assuming that Eduardo Nunez isn’t at 100 percent and that Jorge Soler is available again, but may still be slightly compromised. The way that Cubs pitchers have been hitting, now both Travis Wood and Jake Arrieta have homers this series–perhaps using a couple of arms as bats wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. All systems are (mostly) go.
If there is one thing that we learned over the course of the 2016 season, it is that the Cubs were far and away the best team in baseball. If there is one thing that we learned over the course of the last seven years, it is that we should never, ever–under any circumstances–count out the San Francisco Giants in the playoffs. Bumgarner may not be around for Game 4, but there’s the history of Cody Ross, Marco Scutaro, Travis Ishikawa, and now Conor Gillaspie.
John Lackey hasn't pitched since Sept. 27. However, this was his best year since 2007 and he did it at age 37. Before you bank on Lackey finishing off the Giants, there are three reasons for caution: 1) Skills this year no better than last two years; 2) His 80% inflated strand rate says he wiggled out of lots of jams, which was the main reason for is 3.35 ERA. 3) Even with now-elite first-pitch strike rate, his 10% swing and miss rate is at his max, so command likely has peaked. There are 29 other clubs that would love to have John Lackey. He’s fiery, he hates losing, he has good skills and he throws strikes. Thing is, the Giants are actually a pretty good offensive team overall. The Cubs may lead on paper–even in San Francisco–but it’s not over yet. In a 50/50 proposition and taking back a price, we’ll gladly take the resilient host.
Jim Feist
Cubs at Giants
Pick: Over
The Giants have won a record 10 straight in elimination contests and they attempt to tie the best-of-five National League Division Series at 2-2 when they host the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. Cubs righty John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA) struggled on the road with a 4-4 record and a 4.37 ERA. Chicago is on a 4-0 run over the total on the road and the Over is 6-0 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. San Francisco is No. 7 offensively in runs scored. San Francisco is 4-1 over the total at home and 16-5 over in home playoff games. And the Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Francisco.
Jeff Benton
My Tuesday freebie is the Cubs and Giants Over the total.
These teams were 4-0-1 Under the total in the last 5 season series meetings entering last night's elimination game for San Fran, and yet the Giants found a way to post 6 runs and not only win the game in 13 innings, but to also send it Over the total.
John Lackey has seen his final 2 season starts land Over the total, while Matt Moore has seen his last 4 starts this year top the total.
Throw in a 16-5 home Over playoff mark their last 21 postseason games by the Giants, and I will take my chances for a second Over in as many days.
Cubs-Giants Over in Game Four.
2* CUBS-SAN FRANCISCO OVER
Bob Balfe
Cubs -120
Chicago fans a bit on edge after they couldn’t seal the deal last night. I still think the Cubs are the better team, but they must win this one. Game 5 will give them too much pressure against a great pitching team. Tonight Lackey is the better starter and I like the way the Cubs hit left handers this year.
Bruce Marshall
Giants +111
The aura of invincibility of the Cubs' bullpen against the Giants was finally shattered last night as SF got to Cubs relievers after more than 33 scoreless innings against them this season. More possible problems tonight for the Cubs, as their hitters continue to have issues vs. breaking balls, of which Giants starter Matt Moore throws plenty. Cubs starter John Lackey is a postseason veteran but is not dominant and posted only so-so numbers in September.